저자: Tomo · 외국인
요약 보기
8/23 미국장 마감 후 엔비디아 실적 발표(EPS 2.70 vs 예상 2.90, 매출 호조, 데이터센터 매출 증가 등)로 주가 급등 시사. 지수 전반 상승했으나 거래량은 감소해 추세 신뢰도 낮다고 봄. 미국 PMI는 제조·비제조 모두 예상 하회, 금·엔화·채권 매수 흐름 언급. 잭슨홀 앞두고 변동성 확대 가능성 언급. AI 테마 지속을 낙관하나 본인은 일부 차익 실현 후 재진입 고려.
다듬은 글
Wednesday, August 23rd. NVIDIA's earnings announcement is out. This is a 5-minute chart of the stock price, and it's skyrocketing. Right after the market closed it was at $47, but it broke through the $50,000 barrier and is now at $515. So far, it's up 8.67%. Looking at the numbers simply, the EPS (earnings per share) was $2.70 against an expected $2.90, and sales were $13.51 against an expected $11.22 billion.
It's incredibly strong. Some of the other details haven't been released yet, so we'll get to that later. I'll give you an update as soon as they are released. Looking at the indices, the New York Dow is up 0.55%, the S&P 500 is up 1.11%, Nasda is up 1.5%, and the Russell 2000 is up 1.14. Stock prices are picking up again.
However, contrary to that, the trading volume for the S&P 500 and others is still low. Crude oil prices are falling, with a barrel price of $78.63, and gold prices are rising slightly. It seems like people are flowing into safe-haven assets like gold and the yen. Looking at Bitcoin, it rose slightly today, up 2.71% to $26,545.
Next, looking at the heat map, the upper left is technology and communication services, with a lot of bright green. NVIDIA is a hit, and there's a rebound effect, with prices rising on expectations of good earnings, and Google is also up. Financial stocks, which fell yesterday, are also up today. Next, looking at international yields, the yield on the 10th anniversary is 4.1, and the yield on the 872nd anniversary is 4.96, so there's been some buying back of bonds.
Gold and the yen are being bought, so similarly, bonds are also being bought. Looking at today's price movements, it rose in the pre-market before the market opened, then fell, and then rose again after the market opened. However, looking at the daily chart, it has been rising for the past few days.
However, when you look at the trading volume, it's getting smaller and smaller. So, an increase without trading volume is unlikely to be significant, and there's a possibility of a sharp drop if something happens, so I want to continue to watch that carefully. Now, before we look at the news, I uploaded another video to my sub-channel yesterday.
I get asked a lot of questions about India, so I'm talking about the fact that an Indian mutual fund with extremely low fees was recently announced. If you haven't seen my sub-channel yet, I'd be happy if you would take this opportunity to check it out and subscribe to my channel. First, let's look at economic indicators.
The US PMI Gradient Managers' Index for August was announced. When it's above 50, it's considered expansion, and when it's below 50, it's considered contraction. The forecast was 48.9, but the result was 47. On the manufacturing side, the non-manufacturing PMI was 51, compared to the forecast of 51.9.
It is above 50, though. However, both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors came in below expectations. The reason for this is that new orders are deteriorating, while wages and material costs are rising at an accelerating pace. This will likely have some impact on inflation. Companies reported that demand is sluggish due to high prices and rising interest rates, and since new orders fell in August, there is a possibility that production will be reduced in September.
So, the manufacturing sector remains weak and there is no sign of it bottoming out. On the other hand, the economy and labor market are strong, so this is why we are not seeing a complete economic shift, and the situation remains somewhat disjointed. Prior to the US PMI, the European PMI was also released.
Germany's August manufacturing PMI was 39.1 compared to the expected 38.5, which is much weaker than the US. The euro was 43.7 compared to the expected 42.5, which is above expectations, but it is still just under 40. This is considered one of the aftereffects of the yen's appreciation today. This chart shows the relative strength of currencies.
The Japanese yen rose sharply after 4:00 AM Japan time. As for the dollar, it initially reacted to the dollar's weakness, but after that it remained relatively flat. Which currency was weak? It was the British pound, which fell sharply. Along with that, the yield on the 10th anniversary also fell sharply between 3:00 AM and 4:00 AM Japan time, and then fell again significantly between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM US time.
Looking at the current exchange rate chart, it was hovering around 14560 in Japan time, but after various economic indicators were released, it dropped sharply and is currently around 14480, likely heading into Jackson Hole in the 144000 range. Depending on Chairman Powell's statements there, it could fluctuate significantly both up and down, so short-term volatility is high, which is good for trading.
Opportunities may be arising. Here is NVIDIA's stock price chart. After a big rise, it pulled back once, but it remains strong. It is currently up 8.67% at 8.8%. This time, sales increased by 88% compared to the same period last year. Demand for AI chips is very strong, especially for the A100 and H100, and data center sales also increased by 10.32%.
Furthermore, they announced a share buyback program worth 25 billion dollars, nearly 3 trillion yen. Demand is very strong. There is also information that chip manufacturing is not keeping up with demand, so I think it will continue to grow. Even before this earnings announcement, analysts were raising their target stock prices one after another.
The most bullish person is currently at $80,000, and even the most bearish person is at 3368. Just recently it was around 368, and the median is at 524. It's a bit unusual since it's set as a target price. I think there are many people who missed out on buying it in the first half of this year and are now just waiting.
However, this AI boom will continue, and I think the secret to making money with rising stocks is to keep an eye on it and buy it anyway. Personally, I got a little scared before the earnings announcement and took some profits, but I'd like to get back in. Following NVIDIA's earnings announcement, other rebound stocks have also risen.
This is AMD's chart, and it rose from around $1,080 to $112. Microsoft has also risen significantly, and so has Google. I think that because NVIDIA was attracting a lot of attention, they were able to pass the earnings announcement well and write off the losses. Anyway, there's Jackson Hole, but I think the theme of AI will continue to be the focus of investment.
So, today's market itself didn't have any big news, but NVIDIA significantly exceeded market expectations. So, I'm a little excited too. I'm looking forward to seeing how the prices move after the market opens tomorrow. And finally, a little chat, but my son is 5 years old and currently attends a certified childcare center.
Yesterday, I visited a nearby international school. The teachers are foreigners and the classes are conducted in English, which I thought was good, but the children were speaking Japanese to each other. I would prefer to put my child in an environment where they can speak English to their friends, but I felt that even in an international school, that's a difficult thing.
If any of you have children attending international schools, I'd like to hear your opinions on whether they speak Japanese or English to their friends, and whether their English skills are improving despite that. If you have any such opinions, please feel free to write in the comments section. Also, if you want to brag about how NVIDIA's stock price has skyrocketed, please feel free to write in the comments section.
Please feel free to write as much as you like. I know that if you write something like this on Twitter, it might get a lot of negative reactions, but my comment section is totally open to it, so please feel free to brag about your NVIDIA products. That's all for today, thank you very much.
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