저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: ARK는 테슬라 5년 목표주가 7,000달러(분할 전, 분할 조정 시 1,400달러)를 제시하며 상승을 강하게 전망. 목표가 산출: 10개 시나리오(파산 포함) 확률 가중으로 산출했으며 확신도가 매우 높다고 주장. 근거 1: 글로벌 EV 시장점유율이 예상(17%→하락)과 달리 18%로 상승, 2020년 3분기까지 유지. 근거 2: 배터리 원가가 경쟁사보다 3~4년 앞서 있고 원가 하락이 지속됨. 근거 3: 자율주행(FSD) 소프트웨어 매출은 고마진 구독형으로 차량 판매 대비 수익성이 높다고 봄. 자율주행 상용화 가능성은 2~3년 내 25%로 시나리오에 반영. 마진 전망: 배터리 기술로 전기차 총마진 약 40%, 자율주행 관련 증분 매출 마진 80% 이상 가능성 언급. 기타: 소프트웨어·배터리·AI칩 등 융합 혁신을 근거로 제시, 월가 애널리스트들은 이를 과소평가했다고 비판. 리스크/조건: 목표는 2024년 말 기준 5년 전망이며 보조금은 모델에 미포함. 과거 발언 시점 대비 주가는 상당 부분 상승 중. 출연자 전망: 캐시 우드는 테슬라를 '준비된' 자율주행·EV 기업으로 보고 장기 강세 유지.
다듬은 글
the costs have been coming down for 20 years we're ready for prime time these are three exponential growth trends that are converging and that is why this is so difficult for traditional analysts to value the base case uh it's a five-year target so the end of 24 it's seven thousand dollars and we have we've arrived at that price by weighting the probabilities of ten different scenarios including bankruptcy to be honest so we've been tried to be as fair and balanced as uh we possibly could be but our confidence level that this is this stock is heading for seven thousand dollars over the next five years is very high many of you will know arc invest have been very bullish on tesla for a number of years and to be honest most of the time when kathy wood or others from ark appeared in the mainstream finance media sharing their thoughts their thesis and most importantly their price target on tesla stock they were mocked ridiculed or laughed off the stage so to speak at the very least people tended to be extremely skeptical and dubious of their claims well the question is now who's laughing tesla stock has gone on a huge run over the last 12 months this has come as a huge shock to the vast majority of those in the mainstream finance media and retail investors but not at all a surprise to those people who previously sounded like they were completely [ __ ] insane regarding their tesla stock price targets so in this video given the fact that people have extremely short memories these days we're winding the clock back to earlier this year just before the ship hit the van with the global pandemic and hearing what kathy wood from arc invest had to say about tesla and keeping her accountable since she's made these claims and said these things what's changed have we gained any further evidence that their thesis is on track or can we find any counter evidence and keep in mind that tesla stocks split earlier this year after this interview was recorded meaning all the prices you can divide them by five arc invest seven thousand dollar price target is now a fourteen hundred dollar price target split adjusted 100 we talked about tesla bulls we're going to meet one in just a moment in fact one of the biggest ones on the street but but preface that tesla's wild ride has left many of the analyst community in the dust check out where analysts stood just a year ago on this stock average price target was roughly 300 a share just above where shares were trading at the time today the average price target is closer to 500 a share and that's more than 30 percent below where the stock closed today after that distinct sell-off next guest thinks tesla has room to run in fact she thinks tesla could hit 15 thousand dollars a share within the next four years let's bring in arc invest ceo and founder kathy wood kathy welcome i know fifteen thousand a share is not your base case it's your it's your reach case what is your base case case where this 700 stock is in four years yes the base case uh it's a five year target so the end of twenty four uh it's seven thousand dollars and so just to be super clear when this was recorded earlier this year the average analyst price target on tesla stock was one hundred dollars per share split adjusted today tesla stock is approaching six hundred dollars per share arc invest seven thousand dollar price target over five is now fourteen hundred dollars per share nearly halfway to ark's insane seven thousand dollar price target this is important wall street analyst average one hundred dollars arc invest price target fourteen hundred dollars less than a year later tesla stock is about halfway there so the question is apart from who's laughing now is how did arc invest have such conviction and be able to speak out as the only outlier on wall street saying hey guys no no you are way off the mark your price target is here we're up here how did they know well let's see what kathy had to say we have we've arrived at that price by weighting the probabilities of 10 different scenarios including bankruptcy to be honest so we've been tried to be as fair and balanced as we possibly could be but our confidence level that this is this stock is heading for seven thousand dollars over the next five years is very high so you take out your lowest probability scenarios you take out uh the ones that you think are just aren't going to work or the highly outlandish ones where everything has to click exactly right on what bricks is this seven thousand dollar foundation founded is it improving margins is it the lowering the cost of production of the vehicles as they get up to scale or what yes the there are three sources for the increase in our estimate our estimated price target uh one is as tesla killers entered the market last year we expected uh tesla's market share to go down from 17 globally that includes china to something lower instead it went up to 18 remarkably we now know that tesla has maintained an 18 share of the global ev market through the first three quarters of 2020 despite numerous vehicles launching in that time and keep in mind a huge portion of this global ev market is the cheap low budget compact really low range cars in china tesla is still managing to maintain enormous market share with premium price vehicles this is truly incredible and the reason is 17 in electric vehicles or in all vehicles no electric electric vehicle electric this is global there there are many electric vehicle manufacturers in china very low quality but very so what we're learning is tesla is just so far ahead of the pack and i'm talking about the bmws the mercedes as far as range and other important metrics when it comes to electric vehicles their battery cost is three years ahead three to four years ahead of any other auto manufacturer in terms of the cost declines that awkward moment when this conversation occurred before tesla's battery invest today at which they announced a path and a plan to halve their battery costs within a three-year period this on the back of kathy's comments that tesla were already years ahead in terms of their battery cost and we heard previously the market share has been maintained so so far arcs thesis on tesla massive tick massive tick in fact both of these data points skew even more bullish than kathy and ark were expecting and so every other auto manufacturer will if they want to be competitive with tesla uh will and i'm including bmw and daimler and all if they want to be competitive like for like they will have to sell their cars at a loss at the same time they're losing their internal combustion engine business so there they have a big problem what an understatement from kathy there they certainly do have a big problem few people seem to truly understand this at this point in time tesla is producing evs far more profitably than any other company on planet earth and they continue to aggressively drive their costs down with new innovations in manufacturing techniques this really matters for any company to compete with tesla they must first create a product that offers similar value then they somehow have to figure out how to drive the cost of that product down so they're not losing tens of thousand dollars on every sale trying to compete with tesla on price this is definitely a rather large problem as cathy pointed out so there they have a big problem so are you confident enough in their ability to overcome what i would call sort of manufacturing hairballs that have struck them in the past and caused them to miss or delay production targets so nothing is in a straight line you can't promise but uh what they did in shanghai was unbelievable uh you know breaking ground and producing within a year as 2020 has progressed we've seen tesla's incredible speed in both berlin and austin austin now operating on 24-hour shifts non-stop construction work on that factory and berlin despite germany lots of red tape blah blah blah still steaming ahead in fact i'm going to overlay some footage from both berlin and austin just to give you guys some context of how much has happened since these comments from kathy and i think they're taking those learnings elsewhere in germany outside of berlin we've been thinking okay that's a setup for bureaucracy they have been welcomed with open arms because germany doesn't want to lose the auto industry right and they don't want to lose the jobs so uh and now we're hearing potentially about texas nine months later and we know the pace of construction has been absolutely insane in both berlin and austin the austin factory now doing 24-hour shifts construction non-stop berlin coming close to completion here's a prediction by mid-2021 q3 at the absolute latest there'll be vehicles rolling off production lines in limited numbers at both of these factories so we think they're going to surprise uh on the production side now it took a lot of trial and error just like with their falcon rockets when they were trying to land them it was failure failure failure failure then success and now they've been successful pretty much every time since so i think they've gotten the manufacture when you take tyler's question to the next level is it do you dig in and get granular on the opportunities when you look at the some of the parts is it going to be panels autonomous drive or batteries that are the new breakout because when we look to to tyler's point when we look at the cars in production everyone thinks they're an expert on what they can and can't do with tesla but is there going to be shockers going forward where there's going to be a breakout valuation on batteries because their technology is so far advanced yeah i think they acquired a company called maxwell technologies and they've been very secretive about what that is going to do for their battery technology so what i just said to you does not even incorporate maxwell so yes we do think there are surprises on the battery front got to give credit where it's due kathy there suggesting that there were some surprises to come on the battery front and sure enough battery invest today and the subsequent plan to drive their costs down by more than half well what do you know right again they have their own ai chip for autonomous the only auto manufacturer to have one and james wang who worked at our analyst who worked at nvidia for eight nine years uh took a look at those specs and said four years ahead of anything that nvidia is going to be able to produce can because a single purpose is not general purpose uh so we think they're going to be way ahead of the game on autonomous and surprise surprise tesla's autonomous software has grown in leaps and bounds throughout 2020 we've seen the release of full self-driving beta to some early testers now and progress is moving at an absolutely astonishing rate and that's where the real surprises are going to be because autonomous is a recurring revenue very high margin almost software as a service like opportunity autonomous taxi networks and uh what what you have baked in the cake from the street primarily are low margin gross margins uh more like auto you know in the 25 30 range we actually think gross margins because of their battery technology could head for 40 on the ev itself and then the incremental revenues from autonomous would be in the 80 plus range and we think that's what people are missing and in our seven thousand dollar target so the scenario testing we assume only a 25 chance that they're going to be up and running uh with autonomous within two to three years karen jump in yeah so kudos to you i mean you had what i thought was an outlandish uh target two years ago or one and a half years ago and here we are and so you have another one maybe outlandish maybe spot on so i'm going to mark exactly where on the tesla stock price chart this interview took place does this seem outlandish or spot on keeping in mind this was a five year price target we've got more than four years left and it's almost halfway there now since this interview tesla stock has literally gone to the moon and it's now on its way to mars and what a perfect opportunity to plug the merch store don't forget to pick up your t-shirt tesla stock to mars or tesla stock to the moon links in description we've sold almost 200 tesla stock to mars shirts within three weeks so thanks to everyone for the support but let me ask you when you get to this 7 000 to pick your more moderate case what's it trading at as a multiple of earnings or as a what would that what would that valuation then be so in five years again we we don't really operate like that we're just trying to figure out the cash flows and the do and then discount them but one of the things that i'd like to focus on is the reason this is such a is going to be such a big upside surprise is because tesla is riding the convergence of three major innovation platforms convergence it's very hard to analyze this in the traditional world right auto analysts are not robotics experts they are not artificial intelligence experts or battery experts oh so that's why all the wall street analysts have been dead [ __ ] wrong on tesla stock and completely missed the mark thanks for letting us know kathy i knew there was something up we have three analysts working on this model together all of them are characterized by exponential growth during the night we are ready for prime time the sodium the seeds for what uh we're about to witness now not just with tesla but with genomics with 3d printing with everything we do the seeds were sewn during the tekken telecom bubble the costs back then were way too high to play out for for those those platforms to play out the costs have been coming down for 20 years we're ready for prime time these are three exponential growth trends that are converging and that is why this is so difficult for traditional analysts to value now this is a great opportunity to just jump in here and point this out again i really want to hammer this point home i've been screaming from the rooftops to everyone who would listen and most who wouldn't for a long time the opportunity in tesla was phenomenal and no one got it this is why i started the channel i got so frustrated i'm like hey guys can you not see what i can see hello what was not being seen was the disruptive innovation and the convergence of these exponential technologies now it's totally understandable if you're a wall street stock analyst and you only have one lens through which to look at a stock you're going to miss it but if you have a broader perspective and understand everything that's going on right battery costs are coming down computer costs coming down the data lead or go that's how you spot this opportunity that's how so many on wall street have missed this so in the future if you hear any stock analysts talking about tesla and they're making references saying that their valuation is crazy because they're an automaker and doesn't make sense or you hear somebody talking about units of volume or vehicles and that's it they're not talking about energy they're not talking about software they're an idiot they shouldn't be talking they're unqualified and i actually mean that i really really really do not like people sharing their apparently qualified opinions from a place of influence and respect when they actually don't know what the [ __ ] they're talking about now some of you may have noticed i'm not exactly the most subtle or subdued person when sharing opinions that i have high conviction in the reason that i'm being so obnoxious to these clowns on wall street isn't so they cry themselves to sleep it's so they wake the [ __ ] up and stop being wrong i'm not the guy to go um i'm so sorry i'm so sorry but um i think you might have made a mistake sometimes that'll get through to people other times you just need to slap him in the face and go listen mate you're [ __ ] up you're completely dead [ __ ] wrong and here is why obviously horses for causes i accept that but i'm actually trying to do a service here to the people on wall street have completely missed the mark on tesla here some are willing to accept this some aren't but the facts are the facts most of wall street's analysts have been completely wrong on tesla to the point it is absolutely embarrassing this is all we do we do nothing but disruptive innovation because we have never seen as much disruptive innovation evolving at the same time ever you have to go back to telephone electricity internal combustion engine that's the last time we saw exponential growth on the on the order that we're going to get in one quick question from dan one quick answer just real quickly and this is you know near-term do you expect volatility around earnings there was in the last couple years but like for instance they sold cars at a 450 000 annualized rate last quarter right and when you look at their net income it all came from selling tax credits do you expect that to be a big component of it and does it look like that at other places around the world we're expecting um really a lot of growth to come quickly subsidies yes they're going to get a lot of credits from companies like fiat chrysler who's paying them 500 to offset so we think that but that's not in our models we never include subsidies in our models what we're talking about right now is tesla is ready for prime time as an av and ev and av manufacturer all right you got to leave it there kathy thank you very much you've done your homework on this one really appreciate it thank you credibility matters that's why i'm revisiting some of these clips if somebody's consistently wrong we can safely ignore their opinion in the future and the reverse is also true if somebody is consistently right especially when at the time they sound completely insane aka arc invest insane crazy price target on tesla stock next minute tesla stock goes to the moon they gain a little bit of credibility and it's worth paying that little bit more attention to their other thoughts and opinions about other events that may or may not occur in the future too that's what credibility is based on and now in my opinion archinvest are unquestionably the most credible folks on wall street the most credible people talking about tesla period and now i'd love to hear from you guys in the comments below let me know when you think tesla stock price is gonna reach ark's target or fourteen hundred dollars per share aka seven thousand dollars a share before the stock split
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