저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 캐시 우드는 테슬라를 비롯한 혁신 기업의 장기 성장을 확신하며, 벤치마크 중심 전략이 구조적 위험이라고 주장한다. [핵심 주장 - 전통 자동차 기업의 한계] 전통 자동차 기업의 DNA는 내연기관에 묶여 있어 전기차·자율주행이라는 새 성장 기회에 준비가 부족하다고 평가했다. 향후 업계 대대적 구조조정과 통합이 예상된다고 언급했다. [핵심 주장 - 테슬라와 리서치 방식] 테슬라는 2014년 설립 이후 5년 내 전기차 대량 확산이 가능하다는 ARK의 예측이 맞았다고 설명했다. 근거 모델은 라이트의 법칙(누적 생산량에 따른 비용 하락)이며, 배터리 팩 원가 하락 곡선을 핵심 지표로 추적했다. [핵심 주장 - 자율주행과 독점 구도] 자율주행 택시 네트워크는 지역별 자연 독점이 형성될 것으로 봤다. 테슬라는 미국에서 승자가 될 가능성이 크며, 중국과 유럽은 불확실하지만 상당한 점유 기회가 있다고 전망했다. 차량 규모 확대에 따른 데이터 축적이 선두 격차를 키운다는 논리다. [언급 종목 및 방향] 테슬라: 상승(장기 확신, 중기 이상 강세 전망). 52주 신고가 근처(약 520달러)라는 진행자 언급이 있었으나 캐시 우드 자신의 목표가는 없다. IBM 등 기존 대기업: 전환 가능성에 대한 언급만 있고 방향성 판단은 없음. [리스크 및 조건] 벤치마크 지수 추종 전략이 가치 함정과 과거 지향성 때문에 위험하다고 봤다. 예측이 크게 빗나간 사례(2020년 IHS 전기차 전망치 대비 약 10배 차이)를 들어 기존 예측 방식의 한계를 지적했다. [출연자 전망 및 태도] 진행자는 2019년 12월 약 70달러 시점부터 테슬라를 매수해 왔다고 밝히며 장기 강세 확신을 드러냈다. 두 사람 모두 시장 컨센서스에 반해 투자하는 것의 기회 가치를 강조했다.
다듬은 글
uh that their dna is mostly about the internal combustion engine their exponential growth opportunity was a hundred years ago uh the new exponential growth opportunity is electric and then autonomous they are not well prepared for that move we think most of them will be disrupted i think there'll be huge consolidation in the space restructuring and in the traditional asset management world you know our strategy was considered a little out there very volatile very risky and and our point of view was wait a minute the risk is not in our strategies the risk is if not today within the next three to five years the risk is in benchmark oriented strategies backwards looking strategies i think i learned really early in the business that when everyone is moving in one direction and and and and they're sure that that's the way the world's going to work and we see reasons that that is incorrect and move in the other direction the rewards can be enormous tesla of course has been a wonder wonderful way to showcase our research because we were thinking that electric was uh possible from a scaling exponentially point of view uh within five years of the starting of the company we started in 2014 and that certainly has proved uh correct and um and we had the model again centered on wright's law that's critical to our analysis uh that such that we were watching the numbers coming out and they were and they were following the model that we had put in place but because most analysts out there weren't even considering electric as relevant for 10 years um you know we had to convince the public so i think our way of doing research the courage of my conviction born out of our research and you know standing on the shoulders of you and our analysts you know i was able to suffer through the slings and arrows and i didn't even consider it suffering because i knew we were onto something big hey i'm stevn this video we're watching some clips of arc invest kathy wood discussing disruption innovation and their investment strategy dollars and for the three people watching who don't already know arc invest were both early and big investors in tesla stock and obviously that's worked out okay in fact as i record this tesla stock is pushing into all-time high territory approaching 520 dollars per share so you've had a lot of experience with a lot of different kinds of management teams over the years and a lot of different strategic positions sometimes great strategic positions sometimes poor strategic decisions how do you think about and assess when you're meeting with management teams you know like what's the secret sauce for them to to navigate this landscape how do we think about that the secret guys ready make sure you're sitting down this is really important ready the secret wait for it is engaging your brain looking at the data and then finally inferring based on that data what the future might look like i know it's crazy but that's actually the secret versus looking in the rear vision mirror and going oh yeah that used to work that's obviously going to keep working i don't need to look at the data today because that used to work so i'm just going to keep doing that it's nice safe and comfortable well i think we're learning more and more about old dna and new dna you know tesla is a great example a very high conviction stock for us as many people know and uh what we needed to know first was uh before we even met tesla we needed to know okay this movement towards electric are we ready for prime time is battery technology ready for prime time and this movement towards autonomous is it within our five-year time horizon and so we took a white sheet of paper as you know brett because we guided a lot of this research and we just tried to figure out what kind of cost curve decline are these battery pack systems on and when will they reach uh a price that is competitive with gas powered vehicles like on a like-for-like basis oh my god kathy did you just talk about data and inferring uh so we we as we're doing that research we find the companies uh the visionaries who are driving uh these new ways of doing things they they are the companies usually with visionary management uh and a lot of new dna uh they're not stuck at all in the existing world order and typically they are dismissed by the traditional world order in early days which you know the auto manufacturers laughed when tesla lined the bottom of its cars with quote-unquote cell phone batteries you know they just dismissed it and um they missed a very very big disruption uh and now they are scrambling to try and catch up uh their dna is mostly about the internal combustion engine their exponential growth opportunity was a hundred years ago the new exponential growth opportunity is electric and then autonomous they are not well prepared for that move we think most of them will be disrupted i think they'll be huge consolidation in the space restructuring so so we just look we use our research as our screen technologies first which companies are running with these technologies which are the innovators who are actually creating you know this new opportunity and um and we follow them closely and we're in a world where there are many uh opportunities because of artificial intelligence are are well first they're exponential growth opportunities but they are also winner take most opportunities so autonomous we think autonomous vehicles and taxi networks we think will submit to natural geographic monopolies it's our job to figure out which company is best placed in each geography to become effectively the winner taking most in that opportunity kathy makes a very important and valid point here it seems likely that autonomy is going to give rise to local geographical monopolies because the data is relevant to where in the world we're talking about road signage conditions environments highway networks everything varies slightly from place to place from region to region but i also believe that it's going to be a little from column a and a little from column b meaning that once full self-driving once autonomy is solved at a generalized level i think you're 95 of the way there it's just a matter of getting some of that localized data to really understand and adapt you're a human being right if i dropped you in a vehicle and you already know how to drive and drop you in any other country on earth you're probably going to be competent at driving you may not be brilliant it might take you a little tiny amount of time to adapt but that's that last five percent or so getting autonomy solved most of the way in one geography i think is going to make it a hell of a lot easier to solve somewhere else it's just a matter of filling in a few blanks tesla has won the united states there's no question on that tesla robo taxis will dominate the us china maybe a different story maybe a different story in europe yet i think these are still up in the air but tesla has a very good chance of taking an outside share of these markets as well the reason i say this again comes down to the size of tesla's fleet which is growing exponentially and collecting data they have an unassailable lead that is accelerating i mean how do you catch them but you know as a research team we could be pitching you like there's all kinds of you know ibm basically talks about every one of the technologies that we focus on right and and i could pick kind of you know call it old dna companies or you could say companies that are already at scale that are talking about you know they know how to manufacture things they just need to transition to electric like why not those companies what do you think hurts that like why is there old what does all dna mean you know what it means is um when you think about it because we haven't had this much innovation occurring at one time uh you know tried and true indexed-based strategies they were very successful for a very long time not much was changing so they did fine and outperformed active managers who were becoming more benchmark sensitive which was not a good idea by the way um so now that we're in a period a period of momentous change um we need the right dna because the the the old dna typically it has r d budgets which are focused they're backwards looking the world never didn't change for 100 years and in their view i remember very well when we started arc in their view electric wasn't going to become relevant for 10 or 15 years in fact i think ihs in 2020 expected 250 000 electric vehicles globally and i think we're on par for i i think it's it's certainly over 2 million they were 10 fold off an order of magnitude off there's really something in this see many of these forecasts about the future when they're discussing disruptive innovative technology completely missed the mark i mean an order of magnitude i mean that is embarrassing but that also signifies enormous opportunity as many of you will know the only stock i've bought since november 2017 for three jesus i'm not even high what is that for three years is tesla stock now you could suggest that i'm a maybe i fantasize about riding elon's rocket every night did i just say that i did okay well we're just going to leave that in there or or or maybe just maybe i actually looked at the data the numbers spent a lot of time really understanding the opportunity and realized oh eb transition inevitable full self-driving being achieved inevitable tesla's data lead unassailable tesla's engineering prowess incredible world leading not even close tesla's leadership elon musk track record wow hmm yeah you know what i think tess is going to do relatively well i think that there's an important lesson to be learned here oftentimes when you hear someone with an incredibly high level of conviction and they sound completely insane rather than immediately dismissing them it's worthwhile asking enough questions to ascertain why they believe what they believe what data are they basing these opinions on where's the evidence how are they able to infer what they believe is likely to happen in the future oftentimes i think people arrogantly dismiss without investigating and obviously this is how you miss enormous opportunities but let's be honest most people are incredibly lazy intellectually it's too much work to really thoroughly investigate this opportunity so much easier to dismiss it as crazy rather than verify validate confirm or refute uh and and that usually is why we have such an opportunity the old world doesn't believe that innovation can uh come on the scene and evolve that quickly just because it hasn't in the last hundred years you know it's funny i hear you talk about these management teams i can't help but think of you kathy uh like how do you in terms of like talk a little bit about uh founding arc and and and how you think about kind of the culture of arc and and what we're doing within the context of the investing landscape yeah um i founded arc for two reasons one to focus only on disruptive innovation because with your help brett you know we were identifying major opportunities all occurring at once 14 different technologies involved and we didn't think the world understood what was about to hit it uh and uh and in the traditional asset management world you know our strategy was considered a little out there very volatile very risky and uh and our point of view was wait a minute the risk is not in our strategies the risk is if not today within the next three to five years the risk is in benchmark oriented strategies backwards looking strategies because of the value traps which are populating them increasingly you are kathy wood starting arc and and i'm on the other side and i'm saying listen actively traded etfs that's something that doesn't really exist why do that uh why call yourself a thematic manager when growth equities is a box you could fit into why start something that would be available to retail clients when you could do you know a hedge fund like i could say all those things how do you like um and and also i could say to you why are you buying tesla when it's down below 200 it's you know you're you're crazy like can you talk about even within the context of your career how you have that kind of strong like instinct for what to do and stick by your principles i think i learned really early in the business that when everyone is moving in one direction and and and and they're sure that that's the way the world's going to work and we see reasons that that is incorrect and move in the other direction the rewards can be enormous kathy is really singing my song here today now as somebody who's been investing against the grain now for over 10 years hearing pushback from well-meaning but incompetent people trying to save me from losing all of my money taking too much risks investing in a company that's going to go nowhere etc i've learned at this point in time that it's not even worth listening but it's a fantastic metric because if the consensus the herd the sheep are trying to say no do this do this do this and my conviction my reasoning my analysis points here the gap is called opportunity this is why for the last three years i did nothing but buy tesla stock with every spare cent that i had because i could see that disconnect people saying and thinking this me believing this not because of a funny feeling but because of my research analysis and evidence-based thinking i'm not suggesting that everybody who goes against the grain is going to be a successful investor but if you do your research thoroughly and really understand the opportunity you have strong levels of conviction and that goes completely against the grain oh man you're potentially looking at an enormous opportunity and we've seen this play out with tesla stock neato remind you that on december 9 2019 with tesla stock less than 70 dollars per share split adjusted i posted one of my earliest videos on this channel entitled waiting for tesla stock to dip good luck in it i laid out my reasoning my research and what i thought were catalysts for strong upward pressure on tesla's stock price in the future and we all know how that worked out you know we wanted to democratize investing and uh you know there are uh there's a huge intergenerational transfer of wealth starting to take place as the baby boomers uh retire and pass on and uh and and this new generation really wants to understand what they're buying they love the transparency uh and they they love you know uh following us on social media especially when there's one big controversy tesla of course has been a wonder wonderful way to showcase our research because we were uh thinking that electric was uh possible from a scaling exponentially point of view uh within five years of the starting of the company we started in 2014 and that certainly has proved uh correct and um and we had the model again centered on wright's law that's critical to our analysis uh uh that such that we were watching the numbers coming out and they were and they were uh following the model that we had put in place but because most analysts out there were weren't even considering electric as relevant for 10 years um you know we had to convince the public so i think our way of doing research the courage of my conviction born out of our research and you know standing on the shoulders of you and our analysts you know i was able to suffer through the slings and arrows and i didn't even consider it suffering because i knew we were onto something big and we really do have to give credit where it's due kathy wood and others from arkhanvest have been appearing in the mainstream finance media discussing the potential of tesla now for years being laughed at ridiculed and mocked well who's laughing now the moral of this story the opinions of others worthless do your own research draw your own conclusions and act confidently based on those
Comments 0