저자: 미상 · 한국인
요약 보기
장기투자 관점에서 약세장을 버티는 멘탈과 전략을 강조한다. TQQQ를 연 500만원씩 분할매수 계획을 밝히고, 2022년 추가매수 후 현 하락장에서 150만원만 추가 매수하고 나머지 350만원은 추가 하락 시 쓰겠다고 한다. 나스닥100 IT버블 사례를 들어 장기 보유 시 결과가 긍정적이었을 것이라 주장하고, 하락장을 배당성장 종목 저가 매수 기회로 본다. 10년 장기투자 의지를 재확인하며 시장 비관론이 늘수록 자신감이 커진다고 말한다.
다듬은 글
I am a who makes an annuity with dividends. There are countless conditions that a good company must have, but I am particularly interested in companies that have high entry barriers. Barriers to entry seem to apply not only to businesses but also to our lives. Things that anyone can achieve easily are often less valuable.
Conversely, when I do a little better at what others are not good at, the value is much greater. I started long-term investing with this in mind. Since it is something that no one can do easily, something that can be even more valuable when I do it to the end! The reason why not everyone can do it is simple This is because they lack the mindset and strategy to withstand the bear market.
Sideways and bull markets can withstand anyone But a bear market isn't something everyone can withstand If your heart is shaken in a severely shaken market, you need to reconsider whether or not I thought long-term investing was too easy. Over the next 10 years, we will face countless declines, both large and small.
You may face two or more years of decline in a row, and there is a possibility that you may experience a return to the starting point in a year or two, vomiting all of your earnings. You can not give up for 10 years only with assumptions and preparations for all bad situations. Long-term investing is not something that anyone can do easily.
So, I think that it can have a greater meaning when it is successful. Many people will give up halfway, so I want to go all the way to the end. I thought it would be easy, but when it's harder than I thought, people are afraid If you admit it's not easy in the first place and assume that most people will give up, then the bear market isn't really that scary.
The more exhausted and many people leave, the greater the value and meaning of my success. When everyone is toasting, or when everyone is terrified, those who prepare for the next step with composure and rationality are of course much more likely to succeed in long-term investments. How have you all been this week?
Even in this downturn, I spent my spare time reading and studying investment books, instead of taking the path that made me anxious by looking for the prospects of the stock market and listening to people's stories. I have so many questions I'm really busy with the way to go! There is a difference between knowing and not using because I don't know, so I'm trying to know at least one more.
And it's a pity to just let this downtrend go, so I've included even a little bit of stocks that I haven't been able to include because they're expensive. I can't predict the bottom, so I'm trying not to put too much just because it's spilled. I don't think it's a pity that I couldn't contain more, as I think that if I can't contain it all and rebound, I can put it back in the next downtrend.
I expect that there will be some who are struggling with all the purchases already finished. In that case, don't fret, buy a book like me and study, and the tedious downtrend will pass to some extent. There is no endless decline just as there is no endless rise When you are anxious, try putting stocks that have fallen a lot, even for just one week.
There is a difference between being unilaterally being treated without any response and giving a cheap one for a week or two. Actually, I'm worried about the further drop, so if I can't contain much, I choose to include even 1 or 2 weeks. This is not for the purpose of lowering the critics, but for psychological comfort.
"I picked it up for a few weeks at a low price!" As I said in the video related to SOXL and TQQQ, I made a plan to collect only 5 million won of TQQQ every year. Just one year ago, in January of last year, I bought TQQQ for 5 million won, and I did not buy another week in the past year when the market was good.
In a bull market, there are many cases of regretting "Oh, I should have bought a little more..." and then, while climbing as it climbed, make additional purchases with the greed of 'It will go up even more!' Of course, I was also full of greed, but I did not want to break the principle, so I waited for 2022 to put up with additional purchases.
After 2022, there was a deeper decline than I expected, and if you buy now, you buy some thinking, "At least the highs are definitely avoiding!" I'll tell you the exact amount. Despite the deep decline, we still only bought 1.5 million won. There are only three possibilities for the future. Rebound, move, or decline!
If it falls further, I plan to buy an additional part of the remaining 3.5 million won at that time. "If it rebounds, won't you regret not buying more?" You might be thinking But I don't regret it at all. I don't know when it will happen, but another big drop is sure to come. Then you can use the remaining 350,000 won.
When it comes to investing, there are moments when you feel like you need to buy something right away and sell it right away. If you think this way, it's already too late At times like this, I just say, "It's late anyway" and I tend to be comfortable. In general, decisions in situations where there is no need to rush are often the better choice.
Sangam TV left a question "Can you survive even if your account is reduced by more than 97%?" Unlike the gentle puppy in your profile, you asked a really scary question. What are the subscribers' responses? can you stand it? Can't stand it? I answered like this "Why are you holding on? Then you have to keep it, not hold it!" No one knows the future, but in my nature, I don't think I'm going to sit still and worry like a fool.
The specific figure above 97% was probably in mind when a situation like the IT bubble is repeated. One of the things most often mentioned by those who claim that TQQQ long-term investment will fail is the IT bubble. It's possible That's right! However, as I said earlier, this is an argument based on the assumption that you are just being patient while worrying like a fool.
I've been thinking about this There may be errors in my opinion, so please verify it together. In March 2000, the Nasdaq 100 was around 4800. I'm really out of luck, so let's assume that you invested 10 million won at the peak. As soon as I hit the lowest point of 830 in September 2002, I only have 13% left in my account, or 1.3 million won.
If this happens, the TQQQ account with 3x leverage will experience a drop of more than 97% as Sangam TV said. However, from March 2000 to September 2002, before the account was destroyed, I made a 1 million won extra fund, which is 10% of the initial investment of 10 million won. Let's say you start investing in "How do you invest in the lowest?" If you ask me, I will tell you that I have assumed the lowest point investment where luck follows as much as 1 million won investment, because you assumed a very unlucky situation where you would invest at the highest point and fall 99% and be bitten for 15 years.
The Nasdaq 100 Index, which was 830 in September 2002, is currently maintaining around 14,000 despite a big downtrend. I will assume that all the 10 million won invested in the first account TQQQ has been blown up. In September 2002, when the 10 million won investment completely went bankrupt, how much was the 1 million won you invested in the second account now?
Let's calculate intuitively without complicated backtesting. In the 12 years from February 2010, when the TQQQ product was first launched, to the present, the stock price has risen more than 100 times. The Nasdaq 100 Index in September 2002 when the 1st account was destroyed and 1 million won was invested in the 2nd account was 830 The Nasdaq 100 Index in February 2010 when the TQQQ product was first released was 1800 more than double the difference Nasdaq 100 Index 1800 If the return on investment at this time is 100 times or more, the amount invested since September 2002, 830, which was much lower than that, will be much more than 200 times.
I think it is impossible to invest at the lowest point, and I will conservatively set it to 100 times. Even if it is assumed that 10 million won in the first account was all blown after 2 years, the only 1 million won in the second account invested at that moment became more than 100 million won 20 years later.
'How can you guarantee that the same rise as before will happen in the future?' you might ask Then I can answer like this "Because you assumed that the same decline as before and ruin it... I was just assuming the same rise as before." No one can accurately predict what the future will be like So you have to make your own decisions so that you don't have any regrets.
The long-term investment success mechanism is to pick up hard in a down market and enjoy the bull market without any special response in the up market. The long-term investment failure mechanism is the opposite. It is hard to pick up in a rising market and struggle in a falling market without any special response in a falling market.
There are cases where you fail because you do not take special measures, but there are many more cases where you fail because you are suffering psychologically. If you don't have the cash or courage to pick up in a bear market, holding out is also a good idea. I think the worst choice is not to do nothing, but to work harder than necessary.
Those with cash can use it as a good opportunity to pick up stocks that are being traded at low prices in installments and use it as a good opportunity. Studying things slowly might be a better option An unprepared person will never seize an opportunity when it comes In a decade, there will be many more opportunities than we think.
All we need to do is to take our time, study hard, and prepare little by little to seize the opportunity. For dividend growth investors, the current downtrend is a great buying opportunity. If the stock price falls sharply as it is now, the market price dividend will increase temporarily. This is an opportunity to increase dividend yield by diligently picking up stocks that are being discounted rather than be upset that the stock price has fallen.
One way is to work hard to save up cash and then only pick it up at the same time as now. When SOXL and TQQQ continued to rise, many people viewed the 10-year long-term investment positively, but showed a significant contraction in just one month. In this bear market, I think a lot of people will give up on 3x leveraged long-term investing.
With each deep downtrend, a lot of fearful negative public opinion will pour in, and fewer and fewer people will continue to invest. It must have been the last 10 years It started out exciting, but it's close to 0% of people who have been there for 10 years. My thoughts have not changed since the beginning or now.
Even if I regret it, I plan to go there by 2031. The more people who give up, the more negative people say, the more courage I have. It's more and more likely that things will go in the same direction as the last 10 years. How many people can endure for 10 years that everyone else can't? Even if things go differently than I thought in 10 years, I will not be ruined.
If I have the mindset to endure 10 years with perseverance and confidence without being swayed by negative comments from others, I will succeed even if it is not an investment. It is difficult to find a place in our life where semiconductors are not used. Will the semiconductor industry decline in 10 years from now?
Will the top 100 companies on the Nasdaq have less sales 10 years from now? If you ask the most fundamental questions that focus on the value of the companies you own, rather than focusing on the stock price, there is no reason to be psychologically shaken. I believe that mentality plays the biggest role in investment success, so today, I prepared a content to help everyone gain their own mind in a difficult downtrend.
It is a pity to delay the story of dividend growth investing a little, but I thought it would be more helpful to find peace of mind by sharing the story of a bear market. There is no way to stop stock prices from falling But fortunately, there is no end to the decline... nor the decline. If you do not forget the initial mindset and look at it with a long breath, it is only a decline of one month out of 10 years..
120 months I don't think it's necessary to shake our hearts more than necessary at a time of less than 1%. I hope you all do well Confidence in investment is necessary to get out of fear, and investment study is essential to have confidence in investment. I will come back with something to study together. thank you
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