저자: TerrySmith · 외국인
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결론: 장기 가치투자(우량기업 매수·비중 유지) 방식을 강조하며, 단기 성과가 아닌 장기 수익률로 평가해야 한다는 메시지. 2011년 성과: 펀드 +8.4%, 시장(MSCI World, 배당 재투자) -4.5%로 약 12.9%p 초과수익. 1년은 투자 성과 평가 기간으로 짧다고 강조. 설립 이후 누적: 펀드 +20.7%, 시장 +10.7%로 약 10%p 초과. 강세장에선 다소 부진, 약세장에서 강점을 보일 것이라 예상. 투자 철학: 투자 대상은 좋은 기업을 적정 가격에 사서 보유하는 것. 과도한 지불을 피하고, 사고팔지 않고 장기 보유하는 것이 핵심. 거래비용(수수료·세금·호가 스프레드) 절감 효과도 언급. 투자 제외 업종: 은행, 보험, 부동산, 경기민감주(엔지니어링·화학·철강), 유틸리티, 자원, 항공, 기술주. 기술은 변화가 빨라 이해하기 어렵다고 판단. 선호 기업: 오래된 기술·변화가 적은 소비재(엘리베이터, 면도기 등), 소액 소비재(일상적 필수품·사치품). 반복적 일상 소비로 수익을 내는 기업을 선호. 기대수익률 산정: 배당수익률(약 2.5%) + 배당 성장률(연 8~9% 예상) ≈ 연 11~12% 기대, 단 밸류에이션 변화는 예측 불가로 제외. 비유: 투르 드 프랑스처럼 모든 구간을 잘하는 선수는 없으므로, 어려운 시장에서 특히 잘하고 좋은 시장에서 크게 뒤처지지 않는 것을 목표로 함. 대상 자산 예측 발언: 없음(개별 종목·지수의 1~3개월 방향 예측 미언급).
다듬은 글
and what have we done so far if i could just move on to the one slide that i'd like to put on there please um you can see there our performance uh for 2011 the fund was up eight point four percent the market was down four point five percent so to save you any strenuous mental arithmetic we outperformed the market by 12.9 in the year uh the market we take as the msci the morgan stanley capital international index which is the uh a global index because we do invest globally and we've taken it in sterling because we are actually denominated in sterling and we've taken it with dividends reinvested so we've taken a absolutely clear comparator with what our accumulation class which is what we put up there does so we outperform the market by 12.9 in my experience very typical of what you might expect from the sort of fund we run in a very bad year we do our best work when circumstances are quite bad you may want to know or may not want to know what i think about the future i'll leave that mainly to your questions later on but i rather think that in terms of being able to show a good performance in difficult circumstances there's going to be no no lack of opportunity in the years ahead would be my guess for that one um and you can see that cash basically was up just under one percent obviously interest rates are very low that's liable i doubt whether any of us can get libor on our on our cash so clearly uh a reasonably good performance i hope but as i'm always cautioning people a year is not a good period over which to measure investment performance just in case anyone's under any misapprehension a year is the time it takes the earth to go around the sun it's got nothing to do with the business cycle and i think really you need to measure our performance over a much longer period of time with some really good years and some really bad years in in the market and in the economy and see how we do for you over a longer period of time the only businesses that i think should naturally be measured over a year are agricultural businesses because they are dominated by the type it takes the earth to go around the sun everything else it is of increasingly irrelevant to look at an annual uh performance nonetheless house is pretty good so we'll ignore that particular aspect of it and so since inception if any of you are in from day one which obviously we were we're up 20.7 against the market being up 10.7 so we've outperformed it about 10 and what can you expect from our fund well as i've already said i think you can expect us to outperform uh in a good or bull market um i think you can expect us to underperform a bit in a very strong market there are lots of things that we won't own that go up when things are very bad basically uh there's a a guy who uh i always quote on this he's a friend of a friend he's works at a fund called oppenheimer in new york and i was invited into their strategy meeting in 1997 and 1998 during the asian russian crisis when the market was having a very severe wobble and they had a meeting of all their fund managers and i was there for some reason to give some advice and they were going around the table and the chief investment officer said what are you doing with your portfolio as a result of this crisis and the first fund manager said i'm upgrading the quality and uh and then they got well of course this became a theme what are you doing well i'm going for even more quality than he's going for or something and i'm going sh what are you doing she's going through morgan so this build up until it got to this very iconic gentleman i'm going to do a southern accent here so brace yourself for this who it got to him and he said well i think you have to consider whether or not these circumstances are going to lead to a real recession or whether it's just a sort of a blip in the market and i've decided it's a ladder so i'm buying as much rubbish as i can and he did very well out of it we're never going to do that that's not what we do and the analogy i would give you for our fund if i may uh is the tour de france um as some of you know i took up cycling in recent years and my sister gave me a book called a race for mad men which is not about advertising it's about the tour de france and the thing that i was struck many things i was struck about when i read the book but one of them was that in 108 years that the race has been run the tour de france there's never been a year in which a rider won the tour by winning every single stage and there never will be um there are three distinct types of stages as you may or may not be aware there are flat stages where the riders ride in a peloton where they can get some slip streaming from each other and be dragged along and that's typically won by a sprinter you get the sprinter someone who's got thighs about as wide as i am and you drag this person along in your peloton until about 500 yards from line then you launch them at the line they ride like a maniac for five years and win the stage and that's mark cavadish the chappy one spokes personality of the year last year um then there are flat stages which are um time trials where the riders are set off every couple of minutes on their own they're the ones where they wear the sort of spray-on suits and the long helmets and the visors and so on because they can't get any slip streaming there you've got to ride fastest on the flat but you can't get any help at all no sprinter is going to win that the sprint is going to be out of puff after a kilometer or two and then finally of course there are the mounting stages where you get people who've got the sort of build of a tweak who can go up the mountain because of course the problem is you're carrying yourself up the mountain no one can ever win all three types of stages nobody has the physique to be able to do that the person who wins the tour is the person who excels at one of those disciplines and is not too bad at the other two that's what we aim to be we aim to excel when things are bad and to be not too bad when things are good and that's what you can expect from us and fortunately people don't often ask what sort of expected return you get on the fund which is just as well because the honest answer is i don't know but if i'm asked and pushed on that i always give a calculation which obviously varies over time and i say well we've got about really the return on the fund should be the dividend yield roughly plus or minus the rate of growth in the dividend could be minus if the dividends are going to go down i hope not obviously um plus or minus any change in valuation in it so what's the starting yield what's the growth in dividend what's the change in valuation ignoring the change in valuation if i may because i think that's the least predictable element we've got a fund that's yielding about two and a half percent and i think that julian and i expectation julian runs the fund with me in terms of analysis is that that should grow as far ahead as we can see at the moment about eight to nine percent per annum which means we should be looking at something that's going to give us a return of about 11 or something around there maybe 12 if we're lucky on that now it won't do it in every calendar year remember the earth going around the sun bit and so it may do it in in fits and starts here and there but that's our kind of uh expected hopeful rate of return out of our fund um what do we actually do i mean because that's all good and proper what what how do we actually run this fund i i and for those of you are not in the financial services industry first of all congratulations um but choosing something more worthwhile to do in your life but the other thing to say is i apologize for from what i'm about to say next if you're not the financial because it sounds blindingly obvious because it is but the vast majority of fund managers do not do it we seek to buy very good companies and people the reason i say that is when i've said that over time to people who are not in financial services and they say well don't all fund managers buy good companies no i was a broker for many years in my experience they'll buy all kinds of rubbish they'll buy it because it's going to get better because it's going to be taken over because the management's going to change because the cycle is going to change because somebody bought them lunch told them a funny story we don't do that now there are a few people out there who can make money buying bad companies and getting it right when things change but frankly they're a very small minority and equally frankly i really don't want to sit there with a bad company while i'm waiting for things to get better i want something that adds a small predictable incremental amount of extra value to what we own every single day of its life predictably so we endeavor to buy good companies now i did in the course of being a broker encounter a few fund managers who did actually go out and buy good companies and they'd say well there's my portfolio what do you think well they're all very good companies they would qualify on what i would call a good company yes they say why do you think i keep underperforming i said well it's pretty simple you overpaid so the other thing we've got to do is not overpay we have to have our own discipline about what we're prepared to pay even the very best companies have a price that we cannot possibly pay for them and the reason for that is because the most important thing we're going to do with this fund other than identifying and buying good companies and not overpaying for them is this is the most difficult part of it okay we're going to do nothing that's the really difficult bit once we've found the good company and we've bought it at a good price we're going to sit on our hands and endeavor not to deal in it and the reason we do that is several fold the main one is every time you deal you incur costs you incur commissions in the uk you can go to stamp duty and you incur bid off the spreads there's brian winterflood sitting there he knows all about bid office he can he can wax lyrical on bid office spreads later for us if you want and um we don't do that for that reason we also don't do that reason is because there are very very very few companies that fit our criteria and changing one is dangerous basically finding another one is incredibly difficult there are lots of parts of the market that we simply will not own um it means that we have a limited number of things that we have to think about that's good because actually there's a limited number of things we're capable of thinking about and the good news is at least we've managed to identify that whereas a lot of people haven't managed to figure out that they they're capable of thinking about very few things we'll never own a bank we'll never own an insurance company we'll never own a real estate company we won't own anything that's heavily cyclical like engineering or chemicals or or steel for example we won't own any utilities we won't any resources and the one thing we will never ever own no matter whatever happens is an airline our steam chairman is in fact on the board of it airline we regard this is very amusing we won't own technology we uh we don't understand technology we don't profess to and technology frightens us technology frightens us because it can change rapidly and we may not spot the change and neither may anybody else frankly but that doesn't seem to bother them they invest in technology what we like is really old line technology stuff that doesn't change much we like investing in elevator companies mr rota's patented the safety elevator in about 1850 it hasn't changed since it's the same design we like investing in shaving businesses mr gillette patented the safety razor in about 1908 it hasn't changed significantly if any of you go to india you'll find that the safety razor the original one where you twiddle the shaft and the jaws that you drop ablating is still gillette's biggest selling product in india that's the sort of technology we like when we're describing it we come down to describe it by the word small ticket consumer non-durable small ticket things that we all buy and we buy them by doing this it's not a life-changing experience we don't need to raise a mortgage or use a credit card just take one of these out and buy it so you don't think about it very much just go and buy it small ticket consumer it's sold to us the consumer we don't like things on the whole that are sold to other companies if we can avoid them why companies employ terrible people called purchasing managers purchasing manager's job is to negotiate on price then to negotiate on payment terms then to find a reason to renege and come back and get another discount any of you dealt with them all have been personally managed you the consumer have no opportunity to negotiate on price if you think you do next time you go in and you're buying your your cosmetics or your deodorants and toiletries or your household cleaning products or your snacks have a go at negotiating on price let us know how you get on i think you'll come out empty-handed so small to consumer non-durables we don't like companies that make durable items if you've got a durable item like a car and you're feeling a bit hard up just have it serviced it will be here next year probably um whereas with the things that we buy once you've consumed it you want some more you have to go buy some more so we're looking at companies that basically do our everyday necessities and luxuries uh people who if you ask us to define a single characteristic of these companies they make their money out of a large number of everyday predictable events basically
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