저자: CathieWood&RaoulPal—소속은제목·설명란에명시없음,자막상출연자이름만확인가능 · 외국인
요약 보기
Wood는 비트코인이 온체인 지표 개선으로 회복 중이며 스테이블코인과 함께 수혜를 볼 것이라 봄. 인플레 우려 완화 후 디플레이션이 1년 내 올 것이라 주장. Pal은 BTC·ETH·SOL 장기 차트 신호와 초과유동성 증가를 근거로 2026년이 중요한 해이며 인내를 강조. 스트래티지 매도 우려는 과도하다고 봄.
다듬은 글
Bitcoin and cryptocurrency may be approaching the tipping point investors have been waiting for, and two of the most influential players in the space believe the conditions for the next big leap are starting to form. Katie Wood is becoming increasingly optimistic again. Acknowledging the reasons for the crypto market's recent weakness, the CEO of Ark Invest says that Bitcoin is starting to recover , on-chain performance is improving, and the combination of Bitcoin, stablecoins, and the booming digital economy could create huge opportunities.
More importantly, Wood believes that inflation fears that have weighed on markets could subside, paving the way for what she calls a fantastic period for investors who are ready for technological change. Meanwhile, Raul Pal sees another piece of the same puzzle. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana are showing rare technical signals on their long-term charts.
While the liquidity metrics Pal tracks are starting to improve, his advice to frustrated crypto investors is simple. Patience. The liquidity needed to boost the crypto market has not yet arrived in full, but he is convinced that the conditions are forming and 2026 could be critical. In this video, we'll break down Katie Wood's latest predictions for Bitcoin and the crypto market, why she believes the biggest opportunities are yet to come, and analyze Raul Pal's views on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and global liquidity.
Most importantly, we'll find out what needs to happen for a true crypto breakout, and why Wood and Pal believe the situation is much more optimistic than the market expects. our . OK. I have to mention Bitcoin. We are asked questions about him. Bitcoin is getting back on its feet relative to gold. Um, and I really think David Pell's on-chain indicators look more positive.
We should have paid more attention to them when they turned negative during the sudden collapse. We did n't think it would reach this scale. I take full responsibility for this. In fact, I also caused a problem by saying that stablecoins were replacing one of the roles that Bitcoin was supposed to play.
And what's most interesting about this period— just listen to Cloudflare's earnings report yesterday , it didn't use the word " stablecoins," but it kept talking about agent commerce and agent payments. And we believe that stablecoins, which will be dollar-positive, and Bitcoin will be the two biggest beneficiaries of this movement.
Katie Wood believes that Bitcoin is starting to get back on its feet, and this time the optimistic forecast goes far beyond price dynamics. Wood admits that ARK should have been more careful about monitoring on-chain metrics when they weakened during the sudden collapse. But now these same indicators are becoming more positive.
This is important because Bitcoin has historically rewarded investors when the health of the network began to improve before sentiment fully recovered. More significant developments are taking place in the payments sector. Wood previously worried that stablecoins could take over some of the role that Bitcoin was meant to play.
Now she sees a future where both can win. This thesis has become even more relevant in 2026. Visa has expanded its stablecoin and AI-powered commerce efforts , including new infrastructure designed to help financial institutions issue, transfer, and manage stablecoins. Circle also reported that USDC on-chain transaction volume increased by 151% year-over-year .
These are signs that digital dollars are penetrating deeper into the re accelerate this transition. Autonomous agents need a way to conduct transactions continuously, globally, and programmatically. Stablecoins are increasingly being created for just such an environment. For Bitcoin, this doesn't necessarily have to be competition.
This could strengthen the entire digital asset economy around it. And as this infrastructure expands, the question arises as to whether the recent pressure on Bitcoin itself is finally starting to dissipate. Here too, for those interested in Michael Saylor, you can see that this situation is being rekindled.
He had a near-death moment— though of course it wasn't a real death by any means, but the hedge funds pushed and pushed and pushed; that's what they do when they see a weak link, and Michael Saylor was that weak link. This idea that Bitcoin will continue to fall and he will be forced to sell Bitcoins to pay dividends of 10–11%.
So he was testing the market by selling some bitcoin, just to let these hedge funds know, "Hey, stop it, this isn't going to happen, I'm selling bitcoin, and what are you going to do with it ?" So, we'll see. And here, in a broader context, we do not see any problems in the banking system. No problems with private lending, and of course no problems with cryptocurrency.
They are barely touching cryptocurrencies yet. The same is true for junk bonds relative to the yield on 10- year Treasury bonds. No problems. One of the biggest fears about Bitcoin was whether Michael Saylor and Strategy would become a forced seller. Katie Wood argues that hedge funds identified this potential weakness and put heavy pressure on Strategy's capital structure.
The concern was simple. If Bitcoin continues to fall and Strategy still has to fund preferred dividends, the company will eventually have to use its huge Bitcoin position. And, as we can see from recent headlines, this scenario is no longer theoretical. Strategy has now proven that it is actually willing to sell Bitcoin when necessary.
In early August, the company sold another 1,638 bitcoins for about $15 million . More recently, another 1,690 bitcoins were sold for approximately $19 million . However, context matters . Strategy is also accumulating a significant dollar reserve, which as of August 9 reached approximately $4.65 billion.
This gives the company another layer of liquidity, instead of leaving every obligation dependent on the short-term price of Bitcoin. And despite the sell-off, Strategy still controls an extraordinary position in Bitcoin. Its assets still exceed 842,000 bitcoins, even after the sell-off in early August.
So, this could actually eliminate one of the biggest market uncertainties. Strategy has shown that it can manage liquidity without abandoning its core Bitcoin thesis. And this leads directly into Katie Wood's much broader argument , as if financial stress remains contained, she believes the opportunities ahead go far beyond just Bitcoin.
And if you want to stay ahead of these market wian change the markets. All of this is delivered straight to your email. Just . No problem. Many possibilities. We are very excited about what will happen in both the stock and crypto markets over the next few years. This technological revolution is real.
I think the fear of inflation that has been unnerving the markets will disappear. And trust me, pay attention to the source. I know I've been saying this for a few years now. We believe we will see deflation before we see any hyperinflation that could worry the markets. And we think that will happen within the next year or so.
And it's going to be fantastic for investors and companies that are on the right side of change and really using all these technology tools, and it's going to be very difficult for those that aren't . Katie Wood's main message is that recent uncertainty may be hiding extremely powerful opportunities for investors.
She says there are no serious problems in the financial system that could change her long-term outlook. Instead, Wood focuses on what will happen as inflationary pressures continue to ease and technological innovation begins to be introduced into the economy on a much larger scale. S other disruptive technologies are converging at the same time.
If these technologies continue to drive down costs across the economy, Wood believes that deflationary forces could eventually become much stronger than investors expect. This could create an unusual combination for the markets. Falling inflation would give policymakers more flexibility, while accelerating innovation could continue to drive productivity growth.
And that's why Wood remains so optimistic. She does not view the recent volatility as the end of a technology cycle . She sees it as part of the preparation for what comes next. But Raul Pal believes there is another missing ingredient before crypto can truly explode, and that is liquidity. Crypto-affairs.
Crypto- affairs. As you said , the most interesting was ETH , Bitcoin. Everything else was just nonsense. We seemed to have a surge , and then there was a period of stagnation. Seti (Siri) was weaker, but still just laid down and this was the daily schedule. We already have 13. We'll probably get another nine here.
But when we move on to weekly counts , we already had 13, and that usually works really well. And more importantly, we had a lunar nine as well, which is an extremely rare occurrence anywhere. So Bitcoin on the monthly chart with a nine. Nine. Here's ETH on the monthly chart with a nine, right? Soul on the lunar chart with a nine.
I mean, patterns like that don't happen often. So, again, people hate when we say this, they hate it , but patience. Nothing special is happening. He's just gaining strength, doing his thing. You need liquidity to make that happen, you know? I understand. I mean, the other thing is that everyone is going crazy over Mike Howe.
And if we go back to that, Mike X was bearish on NASDAQ and bearish on Bitcoin because of, uh, its liquidity metrics, right? We were optimistic about both because of our liquidity metrics. And what happened? Well, cryptocurrencies are not feeling well, but NASDAQ is the opposite. So, we were both right about one aspect of the trade, is not moving in either direction, otherwise it would refute or confirm one of the two views, but it didn't.
So I think it's probably related to the excess liquidity indicator. Let me show you this: liquidity above GDP. and excess liquidity is growing, but I have it too. I mean, the concept of excess liquidity is that all liquidity above GDP is effectively free money that can be financialized and absorbed by financial markets.
Yes. There is liquidity, and there is excess liquidity. Now it is just starting to grow. Yes, maybe it's worth squeezing it a little, but now it's starting to grow. There may be a better lead time than 90 days, but I'm at about 90 days right now, the conditions seem to be building up, but again, it's a yield curve.
We sit back and watch the headlines about Iran, waiting for the right event. And I think excess liquidity will eventually start to grow faster. But we have this jagged, choppy movement in risk assets. There is only enough liquidity for the AI trend, which I know people now intuitively understand because it didn't happen.
But the moment this happens, everything will come crashing down . Looking at the bigger economic picture, Raul Pal's argument ultimately boils down to what the crypto world is waiting for: liquidity. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana have been disappointing investors for months, but Pal believes this period of consolidation could be setting the stage for a much larger move.
It points to extremely important technical setups that appear on longer timeframes. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana have all demonstrated monthly signals that Pal says are rare, reinforcing his belief that patience is more important than chasing every short-term move. In his opinion, the market was accumulating strength while liquidity was catching up.
There are already signs that institutional demand is growing. After a difficult first half of 2026, crypto ETF inflows turned positive again in July— the first time since April. According to 21 Shares' market forecast, Bitcoin and Ethereum also showed better monthly results, indicating that capital is starting to return.
But Pal's main focus is on excess liquidity. This is capital available in excess of what the real economy absorbs. Much of this margin liquidity was centered around the AI boom . If financial conditions improve enough that these funds flow into other risky assets, cryptocurrency could become one of the main destinations.
This is where Pal's perspective begins to intersect with Katie Wood's. Pal believes that increasing liquidity could attract more capital into crypto over time. At the same time, Wood sees a technological revolution creating huge opportunities for investors who are on the right side of change. If liquidity increases as technology adoption continues, the next major expansion of the crypto market will have both the capital and the foundation for significant growth.
Raul Pal and Katie Wood look at this market from different angles, but their findings point to the same opportunity. The conditions surrounding cryptocurrencies could become significantly more favorable over the next few years. For Pal, liquidity remains critically important . Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana have been gaining strength for months while capital has been concentrated in other assets.
He argues that increasing excess liquidity will eventually relieve this pressure, directing more money into crypto. Add to that his belief that artificial intelligence, investment, and government borrowing are lengthening the business cycle, and Pal sees the potential for something more than a normal recovery .
Wood approaches this through the lens of technological change. She believes that the technological revolution is real. Fears of inflation may eventually disappear, and investors invested in transformative technologies will reap huge benefits. Cryptocurrencies are right at the center of this forecast.
None of these arguments mean that prices should skyrocket instantly. Pal repeatedly emphasizes patience, while Wood speaks openly about the opportunities that will unfold over the coming years. But it is this longer horizon that may be what makes their predictions so compelling. Pal sees liquidity conditions forming for another large-scale growth.
Wood sees technology creating opportunities to channel this capital. If these two forces converge , the current crypto market may not be the limit of possibilities. It can become the foundation for a much larger cycl.
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