저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
요약 보기
Mobius는 인도 시장의 장기 성장성을 강하게 낙관하며 현 조정은 중국발 공포로 인한 단기 현상이라고 본다. 중국 증시 하락이 이머징 시장 전반의 매도로 번졌지만, 실적 중심으로 투자하는 투자자들은 인도 우량 기업을 유지하고 있어 인도 주가가 버틴다고 설명했다. 조정은 있겠지만 장기 흐름은 유효하다는 입장이다. 코로나로 눌렸던 기업 실적이 올해 말~내년에 크게 반등할 것으로 기대하며, 인도 IT·전통 서비스 기업도 기술 중심으로 계속 시장을 상회할 수 있다고 봤다. 미국 통화량이 1년 새 30% 늘어 돈이 갈 곳을 찾고 있다는 점을 유동성 근거로 제시했다. 이는 자산 시장 전반에 우호적인 환경이라는 취지다. 인도 시가총액 3조 달러, 향후 5조 달러 경제 규모 전망을 제시하며, 다음 1조 달러 부의 창출은 메모리·인터넷·클라우드 등 기술 분야에서 나올 것이라고 말했다. 은행주는 부실대출 불투명성 때문에 투명성 문제가 남아 있어 매력이 낮다고 평가했다. 반면 진단(의료검사) 관련 성장주는 지속적 성장 영역으로 보고 메트로폴리스를 보유 중이다. 현재 보유 종목은 APL Apollo, Persistent Systems, Polycab, Metropolis 4개이며, 대형주에서 중소형주로 비중을 옮겼다고 밝혔다. 인플레이션·금리 우려는 존재하지만 미국 10년물 금리가 2%를 향하다 1% 부근으로 내려가는 흐름도 언급했다. 정책 리스크(외국인 자금 제한, 모디 정부 개혁 후퇴)를 주요 경고 신호로 꼽았다. 3차 코로나 파동은 시장이 무시하고 있으며, 기업 실적 회복 심리가 그 배경이라고 봤다. 인도 기업은 원자재 가격 변동을 가격 전가로 흡수할 수 있어 원자재 상승 국면에서도 큰 타격이 없다고 평가했다. 다만 인터넷 기업 버블 가능성에 대해서는 실망이 많을 것이라고 경고했다.
다듬은 글
great pleasure to bring on board a very dear friend of mine and Market veteran Mark Mobius live on E now Mark fantastic to have you back thank you for joining us you know Mark I'm always intrigued with the amount you can travel irrespective of pandemic no pandemic so before I asked you a question on markets let me understand which part of the world are you in and what are you observing there when it comes to the third wave uh now I'm in Munich Germany as you know a week ago I was in duai and next week I'll be in Vienna Austria and after that I don't I can't tell you but what you can certainly tell us Mark is that why are markets getting difficult and macro pundits are confused 3 months ago it was all all about inflation inflation inflation suddenly now there is a growth scare the consensus view was that the US 10year Pap will Rush towards two but it is now gradually going back towards 1% what is happening in the world is it growth concern or is it inflation uh it's really nther it's really China concern I mean if you look at the MCI index or the Chinese index you'll see it's down it's coming down by contrast the Indian index is going up so uh you have a very interesting phenomenon where uh many people must remember when they think of Emerging Markets the first thing they think of is China so if China's going down then everybody says oh my God Emerging Markets are in trouble no as we can see with India India is going from strength to strength so uh yeah there are cons always going to be concerned about inflation about interest rates and so forth but the bottom line is that many of these companies in India are doing very very well and other companies around the world are doing very well must remember money supply in America alone is up by 30% in one year that means there's a lot of money looking for a home mark even though there is a route in Chinese internet stocks it's not that India has been a large recipient of flows especially in the month of July if I look at what foreign investors have done they may be panicking in China but they've not aggressively invested in India at least the data which what at least Based on data which we have for the month of July yeah that's a problem because as I mentioned uh when China goes down the emerging market index goes down and people begin to think gee I got to get out of Emerging Markets emerging markets may be too risky so they start selling India they start selling South Africa they start selling Brazil and so forth so uh it's really a phenomenon uh that takes hold it's a short-term phenomenon it won't ask for long but it's something that we have to face Mark how come the cell off in Chinese stocks is not having a snowball impact because all asset classes ultimately they ected and interconnected and I remember in 2015 when China sold off because of currency factors it had a big impact on Emerging Markets but this time like you said there is a very big Divergence how come one asset fall in one asset class is not having a snowball effect on the other one I think it's because people like us uh who look at companies look at earnings first and foremost uh are investing in a place like India because we see great growth we see strong companies and we're sticking to those companies we're not selling and therefore you can see their prices are continue to maintain now of course there'll be Corrections along the way there's no question about that but it really comes up to the individual investor to make a choice are they going to follow the herd and sell out just because China is going down or are they going to look at the individual companies and countries to see where the growth is Mark what we've seen in India is that companies have in a sense reported a subdued quarterly performance because of covid do you think it's time to give companies benefit of Doubt and move on uh yeah I think your the earnings that you're seeing now are earnings that were may have been depressed during the covid situation now that we're coming out of covid you'll see these earnings uh pop you're going to see good earnings reports coming out and of course those earnings reports will be the end of this year and next year so have you changed the number of stocks which you've owned in India earlier it was four have you made it five or three uh right now we have four stocks of APL Apollo persistent systems a polycab and Metropolis Mark these are not the usual stocks which you like these are stocks which in a sense are midcap they might have their own niches but historically you've been known for buying into Commodities you've been known to buying into large cap stocks how come you've gone down the ladder this time uh the reason uh two reasons for that one um uh when I was buying the big cap stocks in India uh I was with Franklin Templeton and we had a lot more money under management so so we had to uh go into the lodge cap stocks and many of those stocks at that time were attractive now we found that the greatest opportunities are in the small and midcap Mark um let's talk about it since you own persistence system this time it's been a blowout performance by large cap it companies but unfortunately most of the it companies in India are trading at north of 20125 times at least two year forward do you think Indian it companies and the traditional services companies can still outperform and give double digit returns I believe so because the emphasis more and more is on technology and the internet and technology is now becoming more and more important globally so these companies will continue to outperform Mark Indian market currently has a market cap of $3 trillion pretty much in size or sync with our economy if indeed in next couple of years whether it's three or five that's debatable but we certainly will be A5 trillion economy what do you think will create the next $1 trillion of wealth for investors well I think the uh the next big thing will be related to uh memory and the internet the cloud and that sort of thing that's where you're going to see tremendous growth so mark my next question is that one side if I look at zamato the zamato listing of indet Internet tech company has created waves from hedge funds to Sovereign funds just about everyone is investing in uh zato do you see that now India becomes a very interesting Tech play also because India always had this romance about consumers and if you put consumer and Tech together then we are looking at very different companies which are planning to go public yeah I mean it's 1 billion people so consumer products consumer companies will continue to do very well so that's a a growth area but I must emphasize it must be related to technology no did you did you invest in zamato Mark in which which one zamato uh the big IPO which went public two weeks ago no does this entire area of consumer Tech interest to you would you be examining these comp companies on a Case by case basis uh I mean the near the three four companies which are planning to go public in next 6 months yeah I would we would look at them but usually we don't go to IPOs because um normally they're very expensive Mark if markets are bullish about growth and if Global Investors feel that Indian markets Indian economy is doing rather well and earnings will catch up then how come the biggest proxy to economy which is Banks is underperforming uh I think because uh people are very very unsure about the balance sheets of banks uh given the uh incredible list of bad loans that have persisted in these Banks people are very uncertain about future earnings and how many ride offs they have to make do you think that makes it a good buying opportunity uh not no it's not very transparent you like the diagnostic SPAC Mark and you own Metropolis do you think the diagnostic stocks have done their bit because suddenly diagnostic stocks are commanding P multiples of uh 60 70 times and these are commanding P multiples for a business which is growing at 15% to get compared in the same leag with companies like NEX or Proctor gamble yeah um it's all about growth uh what we're looking at is incredible growth in the entire medical and Di diagnostic area so Metropolis reflects a potential growth in that area Mark I just want to remind our viewers that Mark mobus in 1999 2000 said that the internet companies are a bubble and they will fall flat and that's what happened post 2000 how different are the current Internet companies from the Doom companies because Doom companies were also valued on future growth and no cash flows and the startup or internet companies are also getting you know valued on the same with the same kind of imagination I think there'll be probably a lot of disappointment because uh yeah out of one one out of 100 will do very well but many others will not do very well what will it take you to become bearish what is that one data point which if it reverses you would say India becomes a sell or an avoid and you would like to go under as of now you've got you're putting your money where your mouth is which is that you overweight India you own four stocks you've been bullish on India and you've been right but what is that one data point or a clutch of data points which you're monitoring which in your book could be the red flag it really would come from uh any change in government policy any change uh where foreign investors are not allowed to come in or there restriction on outflows of money and inflows of money and a change in the reform policies of the Modi government so Mark to understand your view on India is it a multi-year structural View and you think the market which in a sense was born with in the throw of pandemic last year may 2020 still has couple of years more to go and before yeah I mean India is on a growth path um the potential is incredible and we must look at India not in terms of this year next year five years but from a 10 10 15 20 year period uh in that time scope you're going to see incredible growth in India is is a long time I mean in today's time when everything is digital and governed by modern technology and you've Robin who Traders you would say who's got time resign for 15 years let's talk about 3 to five years yeah I mean three to five years still looks very very good for India uh you must remember there'll be UPS there'll be Downs there'll be problems but at the end of the day the growth trajectory will be there and we must be involved in companies that have good earnings uh good solid balance sheets and are participating in this growth of the Indian economy Mark how come India this time is doing well when there is commodity inflation because you know the story for India is that it's a commodity importing country uh it's a it's economy which in a sense at a macro level is centered around oil and dollar uh and India May underperform when oil is going higher but it's the reverse which is happening uh yeah you know uh it's a very interesting phenomenon a lot of people think of U Emerging Markets dependent upon Commodities but that's not the case what we found is that these uh commodities uh will rise and fall but uh companies will adjust to these changes if they're running their uh company's properly so uh we found that u a commodity change price change very often will not have a significant impact Mark I'm going to go back to that conversation or your thought on on banks do you think that private Banks could outperform because offet PSU banks have done much better than private Banks most of the private banks have been quite clear that look we've had a problem because of the second wave but things will stabilize now well you know the problem with the private Banks is that the opaque nature of their balance sheets creates real risk um and that's the reason why the public Banks tend to do a little better uh but even the public banks have this problem of bad loans that are on their books and it's a very opaque situation very often you don't really don't know what's there mark how exactly do you think financial markets are pricing in the third wave are they pricing in the third wave are they pricing in no third wave what is your understanding I don't think uh they are pricing in a third wave I think they are ignoring a third wave uh they're now looking at an incredible recovery of many economies and they are now pricing in the growth that they see this year and next year so they're pretty much ignoring the third wave even though the headlines are there but if you look at the markets it's not having that much of an impact is that complacency or confidence Mark that markets are saying no third wave will happen no I mean it's a matter of earnings because if you look at the earnings of companies coming out of the covid situation uh their earnings are going through the roof and um there's a recovery psychology now taking place and that engenders a very U we say optimistic Outlook Mark any regrets that you did not par in the commodity cycle because you bought cesa in the past you bought Reliance in the past when Reliance was a pure commodity play but this time my understanding of your Holdings is that you do not have too much exposure to Commodities uh well to some extent with Apollo um they are exposed Commodities uh but uh it's really the value added that saves them and really insulates them from uh these commodity price changes and you must remember that uh if a company is uh dependent on copper or or steel or iron or etc etc uh they can change their pricing as well in line with these commodity price changes and very often actually their margins could be better as a result of that Mark at what point in time you would say that Indian economy is growing but Indian stocks are expensive like we've discussed that a good company does not make a good investment at what time you would say that for investors who are looking for absolute returns maybe it's time to switch from India irrespective of the underlying strength of the economy at what time you would say look I'm going to look at other Frontier markets because Indian markets are doing well they've done well but other prospects of other markets doing better is higher well we do diversify as you know if you look at our portfolio we're in a number of countries so you have to diversify because no one knows what will happen in any particular country but from a long-term perspective there's no good reason to exit uh India simply because as I mentioned before the growth prospects are terrific and you've got a lot of choice you've got many companies from which to uh choose so you may not find one particular company uh not so attractive because it's gotten very expensive but you'll always find other things in a such a large Market that could be attractive Mark you know I always look forward to interaction and thank you for discussing your India portfolio with us reasons for outlining that you know why you're so bullish on India and thank you for joining us all the way from Munich so do take care of yourself and certainly hope to see much more of you thank you very much appreciate your time thank you
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