저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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결론: 중앙은행 유동성 확대로 자산 버블이 형성됐고, 금·은은 유지하되 서구 경제 전망은 비관적이며 아시아 장기 성장을 낙관한다. - 시장 진단: 중앙은행이 자산을 사들여 유동성을 만들고 정부 채무를 흡수해 금리를 조작하며, 채권·주식·부동산 전반에 버블이 있다. - 미국 경제: 고용은 코로나 이전보다 약 600만 명 적고, 소비 지표 개선은 통화 발행과 재정 확대 덕분이라고 평가한다. - 인플레이션: 정부 지원금이 일부 직무 공백을 만들고 있어 왜곡이 존재한다고 본다. - 불평등: 통화 발행이 부유층 자산을 키워 빈부 격차를 악화시키며, 자영업 폐업과 대형 기업·주식 상승이 대비된다. - 원자재: 목재가 연초 대비 두 배 올랐다가 고점에서 50% 이상 하락했다고 언급하며 원자재 상승이 일시적일 수 있다고 봤다. - 구리: 전망은 긍정적이나 기술 발전으로 구리 대체가 일어나 상승 여력이 제한적일 수 있다고 봤다. - 금·은: 현 통화 환경에서 귀금속을 일부 보유할 것을 권하며, 장기 수익률은 양호하다고 평가한다(단기 방향 발언은 없음). - 주식: 시가총액/GDP 비율이 사상 최고 수준이며 밸류에이션이 높아 좋은 저평가 기업을 찾기 어렵다고 본다. - 암호화폐·자산: 비트코인, 골동품, 예술품, NFT 등 자산 보유자가 최근 수혜를 받았으나 향후 몇 년은 과거만큼 좋지 않을 수 있다고 본다. - 지역 전망: 서구의 장기 전망은 불리하고, 중국·인도·베트남 등 동남아는 평화를 전제로 장기적으로 매우 유리하다고 본다. - 부동산 기회: 유럽·일본 등 인구 감소 소도시의 부동산은 가격이 낮아 기회가 될 수 있다고 제시한다. - 사회 변화: 재택·디지털 생활로 도시 집중이 줄어드는 변화가 일어나며, 변화에 적응하지 못하면 뒤처진다고 강조한다. - 정책 비판: 민주주의가 자유를 가져올 것이라는 믿음과 달리 현대 정부가 대다수 사람을 통제·봉쇄했다고 비판하며, 코로나 위기를 과장된 것으로 본다. - 빅테크: 아마존·마이크로소프트·애플의 시가총액이 세계 GDP 절반에 가깝다는 점을 언급하며 이 호황을 통화 발행과 부 집중의 결과로 해석한다. - 로비·세금: 정치가 부유층 로비에 좌우되어 세제가 부유층에 유리하며, 부유층이 세금을 거의 내지 않는다는 사례를 제시한다.
다듬은 글
welcome on board Mark Faba editor and publisher of the Gloom boom and doom report lots of talking points with him Mark great to have you in the show as always what's been your current view on the global markets they've managed to clearly climb the wall of worry many a time since the start of the pandemic to now and central banks continue to print money and nobody's worried about inflation at least that is what the market messaging seems to be well I wouldn't say that nobody's worried about inflation but uh clearly markets are rising because as you pointed out central banks are printing money and they can print much more that we have to be aware of they can buy assets and uh by buying assets or existing assets they can create liquidity and what they can also do is essentially buy all the government debt that the government is issuing so they kind of control interest rates or as I would suggest they manipulate interest rates and with it they've created what some people call an asset bubble in the world that stretches from bonds to stocks to real estate to everything with some positive and some negative uh consequences right Mark but do you think this kind of debt is unsustainable even for USA and why is fed not then normalizing as yet I mean our data points are all indicative of a return to normaly be retail sales others are indicating a return of mon normaly as well how where is the situation really leading up to well they have come back but not to the preco induced crisis I call it a covid induced crisis because I think out of a minor pandemic with a very low mortality rate governments have made a big story but basically uh the US economy still employs far fewer people about six million fewer people than before the crisis if you see some statistics in terms of consumption uh that are favorable it is mostly because of money Printing and huge fiscal uh expansion and even employment is rising rapidly within the government in other words the government is expanding the private sector not that much and then there are some mismatches in other words some companies have difficulties to find people to fill jobs because the benefits that the US government is paying out is sometimes larger than the wages that they could receive so there are some distortions but there is one point that I want to make is H clearly this has been negative for wealth inequality you see over say I observe I live in the north of Thailand I can observe this very well I don't need to be an economist to see that poor people they have shops they have small businesses they have a hairdresser Salon a tattoo salon and whatnot all these establishments were closed down and at the same time Big Business the stock market the S&P 500 and so forth that is owned by wealthy people is way up and we have statistics that show that wealthy people have increased their wealth significantly as well as Mr Pub who owns stocks and bonds and commodities and so but I am saying as a social Observer what has happened is not very favorable for a society that is clear historically you've been a big commodity bull but but for the first time you're indicating that the upside in commodity actually could be temporary well we have to distinguish I mean we can't just say Commodities like if we talk about stocks we would have to Define are these emerging market stocks or are they US stocks are they technology stocks are they value stocks and so so it's very difficult to just put throw apples and oranges and grapes All in One Bowl but I'd say in the current monetary environment I would recommend investors to hold at least part of their money in Precious that I've always said and precious metals have not outperformed equities but they have been a relatively good investment over the last 10 20 and uh 40 years so I'd say I would continue to hold gold and silver and that and then we have industrial Commodities like copper nickel zinc some of these Commodities had a huge runup and I just like to remind you say a typical uh industrial commodity that is also consumption related uh and is very cyclical is lumber from the beginning of this year until now Lumber doubled and then it dropped by more than 50% from the peak so we had already a big setback in some Commodities and in the case of copper I think the Outlook is good but not as good as maybe some people suggest for the simple reason that there can be through modern technology substitution of copper in other words the industry will use less copper wire and use other Technologies Mark right now all major markets Equity markets are at in record high there has been a rally in the tenure paper also in last couple of days with the exception of gold uh and Bitcoin most major assets are looking quite you know are are at record levels but my question to you is not about why things at a record level my question to you is that what to your mind is the new sector which has got created in this Co fall well that is a very good question and uh we also have to ask the question whether the world will always expand I mean we had a period 1800 to today you know was more than 200 years the first 100 years 19th century were not favorable for India as we know but they were extremely favorable for Western Europe and the United uned States their GDP expanded a lot and the next 200 years may be very different I think the outlook for the Western world is not very favorable and the outlook for China and India and Vietnam and so forth southeast Asia is very favorable favorable with one condition and the condition is peace and if I look at the mess that the Americans have uh implemented in the Middle East and uh destroyed entire nations and created enormous damage to civilians then I ask myself if they really are determined to create a mess in Asia maybe they will manage to do so but in absence of War I am of course very optimistic about the long-term economic Outlook of countries like India and uh China not to mention the distruction that we have at the present time that came about from covid-19 that was by the way manmade and it didn't come from a meat market in China as the experts like Dr fouchi first proclaimed Mark your newsletter Gloom boom and doom what about uh each asset class do you think that it fits as a Gloom boom and doom category well I want to tell you uh if I look say at Society in Southeast Asia and then I look at Society in Switzerland and in America I can say that there was boom in recent years for people that own assets that own dos that owned bonds because bonds ried very strongly until the summer of 2020 so it's uh more recent that interest rates went up in the us but as I just said since March they've been trending down again and it's been very favorable for people that owned um cryptocurrencies like Bitcoins has been very favorable for collectors of antique cars vintage cars and of stamps and of paintings and uh more recently of nfts so asset holders uh including of course real estate have done very well uh the next uh few years may be a period where asset holders want do as well as they've done recently I mean uh you pointed out that stocks uh the stock market capitalization as a percent of the economy is at the highest level ever correct valuations are high it is not easy to find good companies that are at the bargain price there is a bargain in the world and that is real estate in small villages in Europe in Germany Austria Eastern Europe anyway Italy Portugal Spain in small villages the property prices are low because in small villages the population is going down by the way the same in Japan and so as these Villages become deserted some are actually empty you can get the property for nothing and I think there's a big shift in the world nobody needs to be in the center of Mumbai anymore we can do everything through the computer I can talk to you through the computer I can talk to my friends through the computer I don't need to see them every day so this is a new life this is a a new environment and I think the world uh like after the Industrial Revolution we had built canals and railroads it never went back to the good old romantic days of the 18th century when people traveled in um coaches and so for for throne vehicles that was over this is what the world is about is constant change and unless you adapt to these changes you are left behind there's no point to say it was better this way or it will be better that way it is a fact we have to get used to the fact that we were brought up in a belief that democracy would bring freedom and what the governments democratically elected have done is lock up most of the people in the world unprecedented in the history of mankind never happened before yes perhaps the only thing that's constant is change but Mark you know we've seen the US Equity markets which have been on a te Amazon for instance has a market cap of $2 trillion Microsoft and Apple they're not too far behind and if we add this up it's equivalent to almost half of the GDP of the world how are you analyzing this boom this is what I've pointed out that money printing aggravates the tendency to Growing wealth inequality especially if some people like in the US politics is largely run by wealthy people through their lobbies and so the tax system is very favorable for wealthy people the grandchild of Roy Disney recently published an article Roy Disney and Walt Disney they founded Disney the highly successful Entertainment Company you may not have to like mickeey Mouse and so for as I do the fact is it was a huge success as an entertainment company anyway he said she only became recently aware because she inherited a lot of money that actually rich people like herself uh they hardly pay any tax and all right Mark really appreciate your time and thank you for joining us well let's start a new
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