저자: ThePatientInvestor · 외국인
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2022년 채권시장은 역대 최악의 해였고, 2023년에는 채권이 크게 반등할 수 있다는 것이 핵심 결론이다. 시장 상황: TLT(20년물 국채 ETF)는 2011년 수준까지 하락해 투매(capitulation)가 나온 상태이며, 채권 변동성 지표 MOVE는 2008년 금융위기 수준에 근접했다고 진단한다. Michael Burry 분석: 그는 2022년 TBT(TLT 인버스 2배)로 채권 숏 포지션을 가졌으나, 최근 트윗과 기사를 근거로 2023년에는 채권 롱으로 전환했을 가능성이 있다고 본다. 연준이 2023년 초 양적긴축(QT)을 완화할 것이라는 그의 주장을 언급한다. 연준·재무부 개입 가능성: 장기금리가 4.5~5% 수준까지 오르면 연준이 채권 매입으로 상한선을 둘 수 있으며, 재무부의 바이백(buyback)도 가능하다고 설명한다. 바이든 정부의 전략석유비축유(SPR) 매입이 유가 바닥을 만든 사례를 비유로 든다. 2023년 채권 상승 조건: (1) 인플레이션이 2022년보다 낮아질 것 (2) 금리가 너무 높아져 투자자 매수 유입 (3) 금융시장 어딘가에서 충격(breakage)이 발생해 안전자산 선호가 생길 것. 이 중 하나 이상이 작동하면 채권이 2022년의 부진을 만회할 수 있다고 본다. 현재 금리: 미 10년물은 약 4.2%, 5년물은 약 4.5% 수준으로 언급된다. 투자 아이디어: 단기 채권(SHY), 장기 채권(TLT), 3배 레버리지 TMF 콜옵션 등을 거론하며, 2023년 초 TLT 콜을 매수할 가능성을 열어두었다. 다만 확정은 아니며 '예측이 아닌 확률'이라고 강조한다. 발언자의 2022년 TBT 롱 포지션은 8월경 손절했고 급락 일부를 놓쳤으나, 인버스 포지션으로 상당한 상승분은 챙겼다고 회고한다. 전반적으로 역발상(contrarian) 관점이며, 금융 조언이 아니라는 면책을 명시했다.
다듬은 글
this year has been by far the worst year ever in the history of the bond market it's down over pretty much 21 year to date as you could see in this beautiful chart nothing even compares to what we have here in the blue uh in 2022 and many people in 2022 including myself and Michael burry if you remember he had TBT calls which meaning he was short TLT which is a 20-year treasury so he was short bonds and I personally believe looking at his latest tweet that he may be actually going long bonds into 2023.
now I know I'm gonna get a lot of pushback on this but I did a lot of videos on Michael burry I analyzed many of his stocks like Geo core Civic and many of them were actually on point now I'm going to explain what he really mentioned in his interesting article and what I believe bonds could potentially make a massive comeback uh in 2023 so again I hope you enjoy this video now before looking at this thread we have to look at a couple of things now looking at TLT which is a 20-year treasury ETF it's at 2011 levels there's a lot of capitulation within the bond market now on the other hand you had many people on YouTube they've been saying to go long bonds and then the bonds kept crashing so they may continue crashing but I believe it's closer to the end than in the beginning in my opinion and if you actually look at the move index which is kind of the vix for bonds it measures the volatility the volatility is pretty much approaching the 2008 financial crisis type of level now whenever something goes High something has to happen someone has to intervene to stop the yields from rising as the government has a lot of debt and it's just unsustainable volatility Duty for the treasuries I'm not saying the same thing is going to happen like what happened in the UK but it could be possible in the future and this is what Michael burry is talking about in this tweet and he said he's still saying the FED will back off on qt in early 2023 and he referred to this article which I read now this article is pretty interesting and is talking about the move index of the means the volatility of bonds and it's saying that this is pretty much as unsustainable and eventually in the future what the FED might do they might say if the bonds for example they get to a certain level let's say four and a half or five percent on the you know two year or the 10 year they're gonna start buying some of them now just because the FED says that it could potentially put a ceiling on bonds causing yields to go down you know other than the treasurer is doing BuyBacks this is the main saying with the article but the treasuries can also do some BuyBacks which is Joseph Wang talked about he used to be a Trader at the Federal Reserve they can potentially do that but in my opinion what they said in this article really makes sense a kind of like what Biden said was oily although it didn't work but he said he's gonna buy around 65 or 67 dollars now that put pretty much a floor on the price of crude oil even though Biden haven't bought anything yet and this could potentially happen in 2023 but this is only one of the factors in my opinion why bonds could potentially have a pretty amazing run in 2023 and it's hard for me to say that as I had TBT calls pretty much at least in the middle of 2022 I got stopped out around August and of course I missed much of the crash but I did capture a lot of upside with the TBT calls all right now looking a little bit more adds a you know treasury now the 10-year is yielding pretty close to 4.2 percent I believe the five year is pretty close to four and a half percent now the whole thing with bonds is we have to think what could get investors to buy bonds what are some things that could go right for Bonds in 2023 well it has to be the opposite of what went right in 2022.
for example in 2022 we had high inflation it pushed yields to go up we had Q we're having QT we're not having QE we're having fed raise Rage which sometimes it puts some kind of a floor on the on the treasuries and you know this is what we had in 2022 we had pretty much the market being resilient we didn't have anything break now I don't know about you but if yields keep Rising that much and no accessories they keep pretty much going up on the heels and inflation do you believe it's really going to be higher in 2023 than 20 e22 in my opinion I don't believe so I think inflation is going to be lower in 2023 the question is how low it could be seven percent six percent five percent but again this is pushing closer and closer to the 10 year which could potentially lead up to five percent in early 2023 or even four and a half percent so this is getting pretty close and lower inflation is a positive positive Catalyst for uh bonds the second one is yields getting too high it Fields get too high then you know investors would be buying this is something what that would push investors to potentially buy something else which is the main bet that I believe is going to happen is something breaking if something really breaks in 2023 with all the tightening and everything we have and in my opinion there's a very high probability of this actually happening in my opinion at least investors are going to go back to bonds and treasuries for safety and I know I'm going to get a lot of pushback on that but this is what I believe is going to happen mainly because it happened before whenever something really bad happens an investor run for safety I don't believe they're going to get safety in stocks and they've been selling stocks they're gonna I believe get safety and bonds and secure a pretty good yield between four to five percent which is going to be amazing if we do have a lot of panic and I know again I'm gonna get a lot of judgment but if you remember whenever the war started in Ukraine yields were going up and then they sailed off because investors went to bonds and they went to gold for safety and then they sold them back off again whenever the whole thing unfolded but this is the behavior of investors and I believe no matter what inflation is going to be in 2023 if we do have something break we have something pretty bad you keep saying those articles about Investors have living holding more cash than any point in the last 21 years and people talk about how that's bullish for stocks it's like only institution can only invest in stocks they can't be buying bonds or treasuries or any of those other instruments I believe if we do have something breaks investors are not going to be going in stocks in my opinion bonds will get better pretty nicely especially if the yields keep going up I know this video is going to get a lot of pushback but this was again my opinion and why I believe Michael burry could potentially be going long Bonds in 2023 after being short Bonds in 2022 and if any one of you are actually interested in replicating a pretty close trade to what I talked about today and to what Michael burry might do but again we're not going to find out until I believe q1 of 2023 about what he does but there are a couple of 80 apps that can actually do that the first one is more short duration which is s h y you have TLT which is more on longer duration and you have TMF which is like a call option of a 3X type of Leverage on a TLT ETF and I don't have it decided 100 yet and I believe capitulation is getting closer and closer to be finally in bonds I might be going TLT calls going into 2023 if I really believe that inflation is going to be lower if I believe that the FED could somewhat intervene in 2023 and if I believe something could be close to breaking and that would send investors running to bonds for safety especially if the yield is attractive in my opinion bonds have a decent chance of actually outperforming in 2023 after they underperformed massively in 2022.
again this is not a search than a bet this is just a probability in my opinion it's pretty contrarian again but this is how you know it is I mean you can't just be buying things when when everyone is excited and you can't be shorting them when you know everyone is too bearish in my opinion so again this is my video for today no Financial advice of course I hope you enjoyed it if you did please press the like button and maybe consider subscribing so I hope to see you in another video
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