저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 금리 인상과 긴축으로 인해 경기침체와 시장 급락이 임박했다는 비관적 시각을 전달하며, 특정 종목·자산에 대한 구체적 매매 권유나 가격 목표는 없다. 연준·중앙은행 긴축 기조: 파월 등 중앙은행장들이 인플레이션 억제를 위해 금리를 계속 올리고 있으며, 영국은행도 2008년 이후 최고 수준으로 금리를 인상했고 영국은 공식적으로 경기침체에 들어섰다고 언급된다. 고통 없는 탈출구는 없다는 논리다. 경기 전망: 참여 전문가들의 중간값 전망으로 올해 성장률 0.2%, 내년 1.2%로 저성장이 예상되며, 실업률 상승 가능성이 언급된다. 금리와 부채 비용: 금리가 오르면 모기지, 은행대출, 신용카드, 기업 신용, 국채 이자 부담이 모두 증가하며 기업 파산 증가 가능성이 제기된다. 누리엘 루비니는 2023년 내내 지속될 길고 추한 글로벌 경기침체를 경고했다. 시장 상황: MSCI 세계지수는 9월 23일 기준 약 25% 하락한 상태로 경기침체의 조기 신호로 해석된다. 주식이 담보가 되어 차입 투자가 이뤄지는 구조가 취약하다고 지적한다. 부채와 과열: 글로벌 부채/GDP 비율이 350%까지 상승했고, 레버리지 투자와 NFT 같은 위험자산 투기가 확산되어 거품 붕괴 위험이 크다는 주장이다. 리스크 및 결론: 임박한 대폭락에 대비해야 하며 준비가 없으면 후회한다는 메시지로 마무리된다. 출연자 전망에 대한 별도 구체적 종목 언급은 없다.
다듬은 글
I don't know what the odds are I think that that there's a very high likelihood that will have a period of what I've mentioned is below trend of course by which I mean much lower growth and we're seeing that now so the median forecast I think this year for among my colleagues and me was 0.2 percent growth so that's that's very slow growth and and then below Trend next year I think the medium was 1.2 also well below so that's a slower uh that's a it's a very slow level of growth and it could give rise to increases in unemployment but I think that's so that is something that that we think we need to have and we think we need to have softer labor market conditions as well um you know we're never going to say that there that there are too many people working but the real point is this inflation what we hear from people when we meet with them is that that they really are suffering from inflation and if we want to set ourselves up really really light the way to another period of a very strong labor market we have got to get inflation behind us I wish there were a painless way to do that there isn't so what we need to do is get rates up to the point where we're putting meaningful downward pressure on inflation the chairman of the most powerful Central Bank in the world the U.S federal reserve is set on continuing Rising interests to fighting off inflation and he is not alone the bank of England has recently increased interest rates even further to the highest level since 2008.
the UK Central Bank also stated that Great Britain is now officially in a recession this year the entire global economy has witnessed a general rise in prices for a number of reasons which we have covered in previous videos the essential point we want to stress here is that the actions of many central banks around the world highlight one important thing there is no painless way out of this difficult economic situation only through enduring even more hardship can the economy so the central Bankers argue put downwards pressure on inflation and stabilize the living standards across the world their actions have already created some instability as Reuters reported recently Japan the outlier among major developed economies kept interest rates steady on Thursday only to be punished as Traders pushed the end to a record low against the dollar prompting the first intervention by Japanese authorities to support the currency since 1998.
it was a potential sign of a massive adjustment to come as the world adapts to U.S interest rates rising to levels not seen since the global financial crisis 15 years ago prompted the FED to slash its policy rate to zero and unleash massive rounds of bond buying but what kind of hardship are we talking about here as interest rates rise the cost of all kinds of debt Rises mortgages bank loans credit card debt corporate credit and government bonds all see their payments go up this means that consumers businesses and even public sector institutions see their overall costs rising in an environment when we have already seen an inflationary crisis by raising the cost of debt central banks hope to slow down consumption investment and hiring but this can backfire and result in catastrophic damage such as long-lasting economic depressions and brutal Market crashes look I think that the fomc has to keep recognizing that it's objective is to minimize the total of unemployment shuttered businesses and distress over time and the keeping inflation under control and keeping inflation expectations anchored even if that's painful in the short run is the most important way to do that and I hope Clarity on uh that point and realism about the fact that we are almost certainly going to see a downturn in the economy from where we are uh right now and clear-eyed realism about that is the most important thing for credibility and for the best possible uh outcome given the inflation that has been allowed to build that pain in the short turn that Summers was speaking about is not something abstract real people real businesses and real lives are put on the line jobs are being lost pensions are being destroyed and homes are being lost Global growth is slowing sharply with further slowing likely as more countries fall into recession my deep concern is that these Trends will persist with long-lasting consequences that are devastating for people an emerging market and developing economies said World Bank group president David Malpass the msci world index which tracks the global equities markets is already down by almost 25 percent as of September 23rd this can very well be an early indicator of an economic recession as stocks are collateral against which investors borrow to buy further assets the worst affected are those who have borrowed and bought Investments like stocks bonds or even real estate this is a cardinal sin that can wipe out wealth for Generations this point was stressed by a legendary investor John Templeton more than 30 years ago and remains pertinent even today Louis I would say that if you never buy Investments with borrowed money you can always be comfortable human nature is such we're always going to have periods of enthusiasm and pessimism every 10 years there'll be bull markets and bear markets but if you don't have borrowed money you don't have anything to worry about there is a lot of borrowed money in the system today and therefore a lot of people have a lot to worry about greed has taken over the hearts of many people in recent years borrowing to gamble on the market where newer and potentially riskier assets like nfts has become almost the norm the global debt to GDP ratio a widely used measure to gauge a borrower's ability to pay back debt Rose to 350 percent and the first increase in five quarters The Institute of international finance iif found recently this level of obvious super enthusiasm the bubble has always without exception broken in the next few months not a few years it's always that you can't maintain this level of near ecstasy it can't be done because you've put in your last dollar you are all in what are you supposed to do beyond that point you can't borrow any more money you can't take any more risk in fact you know in your heart of hearts you have never taken this level of risk and you never thought you would it's just that this opportunity is so exceptional that this is going to be your once in a lifetime and and how do you keep that level of enthusiasm going indefinitely you keep that level of enthusiasm by borrowing if it is not your money does it matter yes it does if the cost of debt Rises and it does as interest go up in fact the cost of debt is so high that there are real warnings of widespread potential bankruptcies a significant increase in corporate bankruptcies May well be on the cards as borrowing costs rise which will make it quite challenging for central banks to engineer a soft Landing without adverse implications for job markets the iaf said corporate bankruptcies means people getting fired and mortgage payments at risk of not being paid leaving banks with bad loans on their books Economist nuriel rabini who correctly predicted the 2008 financial crisis has said there is a long and ugly Global recession coming up that could last all of 2023 meanwhile Yahoo finance reported recently that Germany and the UK announced energy bailouts to avoid an economic collapse and take the sting out of soaring prices with European governments spending 500 billion euros 496 billion dollars by one estimate to help consumers and businesses the painless exists does not exist as Powell said one way or the other economic pain is coming with a potential crash that younger Generations have never seen before this is the moment to prepare for the crash that is coming it is better to be ready than sorry do you agree with this analysis or are you more optimistic let us know in the comments section below as always thank you for watching us and if you enjoyed this video please hit the like And subscribe buttons for more
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