WARNING! Crypto Market Is About To Collapse | Charlie Munger

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영상 결론: 경기는 이미 침체보다 나쁜 상태이며 글로벌 경제가 붕괴 중이라 금과 비트코인이 대안 자산이 될 수 있다는 주장이다. 경제 상황 진단: 사람들이 과도한 차입으로 파산 직전까지 가고 있으며, 시스템은 지속적인 부채 확대 없이는 작동하지 않는다고 주장한다. 장단기 금리 역전은 심각하게 나타나고 있다고 언급했다. 정책 및 시장 리스크: 중앙은행의 무제한 채권 매입, 반도체 산업 보조금 법안(상원 통과 중)을 사실상의 백도어 구제금융으로 비판했다. 주식 폭락, 채권 시장 붕괴, 환율 체계 붕괴, 원자재 가격 급등 가능성을 경고했다. 금의 역할: 고대부터 부의 저장 수단이었고, 2010년 후반 이후 각국 중앙은행이 순매수로 전환했다고 설명했다. 다만 실물 금은 보관과 이동이 어렵다는 단점이 있다. 비트코인 논쟁: 레이 달리오는 통화 경쟁 시대를 예상하며 비트코인에 긍정적이다. 자산운용사 레드블록스(Reb ecco 자막 표기)는 '디지털 금'으로 보고 보고서를 냈다. 찰리 멍거는 비트코인을 어리석고 비도덕적이라고 비판했다. 마이클 세일러는 아르헨티나·레바논 등 통화 붕괴 사례를 들며 비트코인을 대안으로 봤다. 결론: 화폐가치 하락이 심한 신흥국 사례를 근거로 비트코인을 대체 자산으로 제시하며 시청자 의견을 요청했다.

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01. I would I would argue that we're way way worse off than a recession here right now oh the the economic news that they're telling us is clear on that the fact that people are suffering and they continue to suffer moving forward here um you know and they continue to borrow beyond their eyeballs you know dancing the way into destitution is what I've been saying recently here they're enjoying their last hurray um and until they go down into that lower realm of society and become slaves to the system that's what it is yeah sure your curve is inverted it's it's it's extremely inverted at this point here but that doesn't tell me or I don't think anyone that follows my work or who understands what's happening anything we realize that the economy globally is over it's in free fall it's not going to stop um and every mechanism you can dream about and things you can't even think about yet are going to be thrown at people in this new economic model the new economic model is going from crisis to crisis to crisis so they can pull more cash out of the future whether it means you know allowing central banks to continue to buy all the debt for which they can do anything they want they have no oversight here uh you know whatever it might be another disease process or another variant they've got to throw cash at that expanding Wars they're going to throw cash at that now we have this uh this build that's going through the Senate to subsidize um you know the semiconductor industry here which is that essentially a backdoor bailout I think people should understand that as well uh and every other mechanism possible to continue to pull cash from the future what people don't know what the biggest secret is it's in everyone's face is that that's the system it demands that debt be fueled added to the current situation in exponentially in order to function without doing that it's over um the system demands that debt be created every day by every mechanism possible hence fourth crisis the crisis the crisis and everything else they can come up with that was Greg manarino one of the most outspoken and successful Traders out there if he is correct then all is going up in Flames stocks will crash Bond markets will collapse currency exchanges will be broken commodity prices will make basic necessities inaccessible to people how then can we prepare for such a scenario there are some who think that there are ways of staying afloat when the global economy sinks the first hedge if we can call it that against such a catastrophic outcome is gold the precious metal has acted as a shield against economic downfall since ancient times rulers monarchs and wealthy families have used gold as a method of storing and preserving wealth and when worst came to worst of exchanging goods close to our times gold remains seen as a shield against economic and financial chaos for example despite the fact that we have a quasi-credit Fiat monetary system in which money is made up out of thin air and represent credit on the central bank's balance sheets gold is still seen as a reserve the latest data from the world gold Council shows that central banks especially in developing countries continue to bolster their gold reserves this has always been a sign of anticipating some sort of hardship in fact central banks have known this for years only in late 2010 did central banks around the world sell on a net basis gold all the quarters since then were net buying of the precious metal Rising economic and political risks associated with other Reserve assets and structural changes in the international monetary system were cited as the top three reasons for holding gold in a 2019 Central Bank survey however gold has its drawbacks for most people who have no Vault of storing gold the physical quality of gold remains an impediment gold is not easily transported either and in times of Crisis you only need to take with you necessities carrying gold bars through some sort of social unrest or Worse military conflict is not feasible there is an alternative some claim the digital goal and no I am not talking about buying gold through ETFs rather here we are referring to cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin in particular um it has proven itself um something like 10 11 years ago imagine the programming of this and here's the you throw it out and that's the idea it has not been hacked it has um um operated it is built it has come an amazing way um over that 11 years to be um maybe probably the most excited topic among a lot of people and has been used and and is now um has obtained you know the status of having imputed value at the same time it is one of those assets that is an alternative money I think we're entering an era where um there's going to be a competition of monies Ray dalio has studied the long and short-term debt cycles and the changes of monetary systems for the past few hundred years going back to ancient times his views on bitcoin are therefore informed in part by the inevitability of economic Decline and the monetary system changes that come with it just last year the giant asset management firm rebecco wrote a report called Bitcoin as digital gold the asset manager stated that as digital gold Bitcoin has monetary value in our view the discussion about bitcoin's lack of intrinsic value is mostly irrelevant as with diamonds art stamps gold and the US dollar Bitcoin does not provide cash flows yet all these asset classes have monetary value and most of them are considered to be a store of Valium some however are not convinced that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are ready to play in a meaningful role in the economy let alone to be used as some sort of hedge against total instability Charles Munger Warren Buffett's long-term business partner has called Bitcoin stupid and immoral Bitcoin is worthless artificial gold which if it succeeded would be so they had a lot of illicit activity now that is not something I think the world needs and the fact that it's clever computer science doesn't mean that it should be widely used in the respectable people should encourage other people to speculate that Bitcoin reminds me of Oscar Wilde's definition of fox hunting the pursuit of the uneatable by the Unspeakable skip ping itself novel and Bitcoin has the potential to revolutionize the monetary system itself in fact most if not all of the world central banks have taken its challenge seriously and are designing their own digital versions called Central Bank digital currencies or cbdcs therefore perhaps Bitcoin is not such a threat to economic stability as Monger suggested and is more akin to dalio's view of another form of money if this will be the case then Bitcoin May perhaps be the real life vest for a sinking ship of a global economy after going through the history of money and economies through the entire booms and busts and failures of monetary systems Michael Saylor one of the biggest investors in Bitcoin said this about the cryptocurrency's role in today's world Along Comes Satoshi and you know and we've got the white paper and you know January 3rd 2009 we we launched this little monetary virus or the or this idea virus and it kind of uh Burns very very low level for a while and people aren't sure of it it's a gimmicky thing and it gets bigger and bigger and bigger and we're waiting for why would you need it and uh you know you had to be a Visionary to kind of need it or get it if you lived in Argentina and your currency collapsed and you remember the currency collapsing or if you lived in uh North Korea or if you lived in Africa and your currency collapsed and you watched your family get wiped out then maybe you get it but you know that wasn't the mainstream right the Western world is not run by by people that lost their family's life savings in Africa or South America so it was um it was an interesting idea but it was a fringe idea until uh 2020 and in 2020 the monetary inflation rate tripled in the U.S and what we saw was in the world's best economies you're losing 15 to 20 percent of your economic value in the currency every year and the second tier economies you're losing 30 or more like the Japanese yen is down 24 against the dollar in the last 12 months right and in the tertiary economies you're losing 50 60 70 percent of the value in the currency and that's where you get a Sri Lanka where literally the entire government collapses or where you what you're seeing going on in Africa and Zimbabwe right now or or famously in Lebanon where people have been breaking into Banks taking people Hostage to get their own money back right the bank robbers are robbing banks and their demand is give me my own money back because the government stole the money and the banks froze it devalued it and they're going to give it back to you over the next 17 years devaluing it 20 a year while they trickle it out to you against this cellular says Bitcoin is an alternative what do you think let us know in the comments section below for more content like this hit the like And subscribe buttons thank you for watching and we will see you next time