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all right all right we're going to jump right into the 20-year treasury we're looking at the ETF TLT and I am going to continue to cover this for at least a few more weeks because I want to track what the bond market is doing from these lows and I'm also going to show you tonight how to set up a proper risk reward trade and why the bond market actually looks like a good trade here when we're looking at the 20-year Bond and keep in mind you can trade this by simply just looking at the Ticker on the stock market TLT so from here as you can tell from the arrow I do think we're going to get a bounce very soon here and I'm going to call this a tradable bounce because I don't care if it goes back into a bull Trend it is clearly in a bare market and a downtrend of lower highs and lower lows and if I think we're near a low and we're about to bounce to at least another lower high then I do believe that is a tradable bounce meaning I don't care if it goes back into a bull Trend I'm simply just trying to profit off of a short-term move here so the way I prefer to set this up in trading view is using the long position tool so you can search for that but when you click on where you want to buy the stock it is going to open up this window you want to drag the green part of that window to your profit Target and then you want to make sure you dial in at least a 1.5 risk reward ratio and that red part of this box is going to tell you where your stop loss would be if we broke down below the bottom of the box then you would have to take your loss that way you are ensuring your managing risk and then you have plenty of reward to the upside if the trade works out and if you continue to do this over time you will be a profitable Trader because you'll only need to win about half of your trades to still make money and then as you become a better Trader you're going to win more often than 50% and you're going to find better risk reward setups so on TLT we're going to track this if we entered today as I told you many times I think inflation is going to give the Bulls a nice balance here in the bond market that will bring treasury yields down which will also help the stock market rally as those rates are easing and overall I think a lot of this narrative is going to start playing out exactly how I've been telling you where the Bears are likely going to get trap that are expecting a bare market and a powerful down move we are more than likely going to favor the Bulls here with the balance in the bond market and the stock market so on TLT I have the risk levels right around 85 and 84 this trade idea gives us plenty of room to still favor the support at 84 because our stop loss would be all the way down here below 82.5 the reward is a bounce towards 89 to 90 it is that simple we'll track this over the next couple of weeks and then from there we likely won't cover the bond market anymore this is just a short-term idea and it's going to play into the beginning of 2025 and this will be an important narrative as we move forward with the bond market inflation and of course eventually we'll even have to be talking about recession we're not there yet for recession so we're not going to use the capital r word just yet but that time will come and you better believe we're going to be prepared for it so jumping over to spy I have the same exact Arrow I've been drawing the bear trap break down below 584 the bounce off of the support right around 573 and then I do believe we will see a powerful rally into the 600s but keep in mind the time frame here could easily take us out into February so this isn't something that's going to happen tomorrow and this isn't isn't something that's even going to happen this week I am simply looking for the reaction off of the support and the confirmation of the bull breakout which will be that break back above 584 you can see two days in a row now we're getting buyers of the dip but we still do have a vulnerable look of lower highs and lower lows while we're down below 584 so tomorrow with the CPI data report if we get a favorable report we should have enough power for the Bulls to push through that resistance at 584 and really get moving on here and all we're looking for is a risk on look back above 584 continu ation of higher lows and higher highs break the short-term downtrend that we have from the pullback and a continuation of the bull market that you're all well aware of that we've been in for over 2 years now so move like water if we get the bearish scenario we're going to see more confirmation of a rejection from 584 and then a push down lower towards 560 that is the bearish outcome if we do not break back above 584 then we could still get a rejection here and that confirmation will be a break to a new lower low down below 573 and then I do think you're going going to see some real fear and panic and that could lead to a more bearish outcome so be aware of it and as I talked about with risk reward I still think there's plenty of upside reward for the risk that we're taking on from 573 so if you just use that tool that I was showing you with the bond market even if you entered today there is still plenty of reward to the upside to still have a very favorable risk W setup and that gives you plenty of room to adjust your stop loss and of course you need to adjust your position size because if the stop loss becomes too wide you can still have lower Risk by simply just having a smaller position size so these are the things that I'm teaching you to do you will have to learn how to do this eventually whether you want to do it now or not is up to you but you'll never be profitable until you master this and you understand that you always need more reward in your trades and the risk and you need to put yourself in favorable to succeed there are so many great Traders out there and none of them win 100% of the time they all understand how to do exactly what I'm showing knowing you how to do here and they all understand that a good Trader is a good risk manager that knows how to place the odds in their favor so they win more than they lose but even if they only win 50% if they get the right risk W setups they could still be very profitable and once you realize that then you're really going to start becoming a much better Trader that knows how to manage risk and understand this is a numbers game and not necessarily having to predict the future on the NASDAQ 100 triple qes we had an extremely exciting day of going absolutely nowhere we're still above 502 and above 502 I do believe there's a good chance that we could be trapping Bears before we have a very powerful rally to at least 530 but if we continue a rejection from 510 at the breakdown I do want you to be aware of a gap fill down here which is right around 493 so if you want to wait for confirmation that the Bulls are in control you need to see the Bulls back above 510 any confirmation of a bare breakdown will be further rejection from 510 and a break of the lows down here at 501 and and Below 501 we are definitely going to be looking for 493 So Below 501 it is a straight shot lower to fill the Gap and that will likely happen very quickly so you have very clear risk levels at 501 you have very clear reward levels up here at 530 and if you're still shorting your risk level would be 510 at resistance and then you would be taking the profit down here at 493 remember you have the short tool as well so if you're a bearer and you're looking to short you would set up your risk reward something like this still make sure you're getting that 1.5 risk reward and you take the profit down here near the Gap fill it doesn't matter if you want the short trade I just think it's a higher probability chance that the Bulls are going to Take Over Control and I believe a lot of the time spent down below support here is going to end up being that bear trap so I do think the best risk reward is still the bull trade we are still in a bull market this is simply just a pullback within a bull market and I do want you to be aware that that pullback could still go a little bit lower but I do believe there's enough upside reward that I personally will still be looking to buy the dip near support and I do believe that is going to pay off very handsomely very soon here as we go into the end of the month and the beginning of February so pay attention to everything that I'm teaching you follow me day by day and you'll start to understand how this all plays together swing trading takes lots of patience that's why I suggest trading shares only shares give you the flexibility to have time on your side if you are options trading you are more than likely getting overleveraged and you are losing money to time Decay each and every day the market is not moving in your favor which means even if you get the trade correctly the premium you paid on those options could just be decaying away and you could still lose money even if you end up being correct about the directional move in the market so focus on disciplined trading with shares prove to yourself you can be profitable with shares and eventually you'll realize you never need to look back compounding gains with discipline trading will get you to where you want to be very quickly and that is exactly what I am teaching you to do if you want or the SLE q that is going to be in my descrition of this video so tomorrow is the CPI data we should get lots of clarity on the inflation that everybody is worried about watch for it in the bond market as well as the stock market and pay attention to these critical levels that I've been giving you
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