저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
트럼프 정부 하에서 암호화폐 친화적 입법이 진행되어 비트코인이 제도권 정당성을 얻을 것이라 주장. 관세는 협상 도구이며 세율 인하·규제 완화·AI 생산성 향상으로 인플레 억제와 달러 강세가 예상된다고 봄. 중소기업 낙관과 헬스케어 내 혁신 기업 수혜도 언급.
다듬은 글
Bitcoin has been outperforming most of the longer-tail assets within crypto. As we moved toward the election, it became clear that crypto is a bipartisan issue, especially among young people, so both parties were catering to it. I think Trump made clear what he thought, and we're going to see a lot of legislative moves that will legitimize crypto in the eyes of people who were going to stay away from it until we had our regulatory act together. From a regulatory point of view, I think Gary Gensler will be out of business.
In a recent interview on ARK Invest with Cathie Wood, insights emerged about how US policies could propel Bitcoin to unprecedented heights. The discussion highlighted the potential for crypto-friendly legislation under the Trump administration and its implications for Bitcoin investors. As of this conversation, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $91,000, up 2% over the past 24 hours and an impressive 35% over the last 30 days. On November 18, 2024, Bitcoin continued its upward trajectory as global investors eagerly anticipated transformative policy shifts in the US that could reshape the cryptocurrency market.
Stop, you don't have time, don't miss out on this 2025 bull run. Educate yourself first, ahead of the crowd. We have created the ultimate step-by-step crypto guide to guide you through this bull run and unlock the secrets of crypto so you can make smarter investments today. Click the link below to get your exclusive copy for just under $10.
Many people are looking at tariffs and saying this is terrible. I don't like tariffs myself, and I don't like any tax increase, and a tariff is effectively a tax on imports. But what I think he's trying to communicate is that he has a negotiating tool with other countries to level the playing field and allow our innovators, especially, into those countries with IP rights guaranteed. So it's a bit of a bargaining tool. I would also say that the more I learn from people in and around the administration, or the incoming administration, the more they look at taxation a bit more like in the early days of this country. The first tax ever introduced into the US was tariffs. There was no income tax. I actually think President Trump will want to move us a little more toward that way of thinking about the world.
Art Laffer, who has advised most presidents since Nixon and was once employed by Nixon before deciding he would never work for the government again, advises flattening and reducing the tax rate. If the tradeoff is tariffs, then as long as we treat our free-trading partners a little differently from those who aren't allowing a level playing field, I like that tradeoff.
You also asked about the dollar. What drives dollar returns on invested capital relative to the rest of the world are policies: tax cuts, deregulation, and keeping inflation down. All of these are dollar-friendly, because returns on invested capital in the United States, all else equal, will rise relative to returns elsewhere. This is what happened during the Reagan administration. It was so extreme that it caused major problems in the rest of the world, especially with inflation. We enjoyed lower inflation as the dollar rose, and commodities are priced in dollars, so commodity prices fell for us and rose for other countries. It was a very difficult time, so much so that in 1985, there were the Plaza and Louvre Accords, both of which encouraged treasury leaders from around the world, including ours, to come together and agree to bring the dollar down. That meant we had to ease more.
What will keep inflation down even more, and this will be true in every country that adopts these new technologies, especially AI, is the massive productivity gain we're going to see. It will drive higher growth and lower inflation. I think the US, especially freed from regulation that has been strangling us, will be a huge beneficiary relative to what would otherwise have been the case. That's also dollar-positive.
As Cathie Wood highlighted, there's significant potential for US policies to support Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Now let's dive into her insights on how upcoming legislative actions could legitimize Bitcoin and what that means for the future of cryptocurrency. Let's hear directly from Cathie Wood.
Of course, I've referred to them as the Mag 6, because they threw out Tesla when it started underperforming. I don't want Tesla back in, and they're going to include a few more too. If you look at the small business optimism index, it has dropped to near where it was at the lows of 2008 and 2009. This environment over the last four years has been very difficult for small businesses, which employ 80%, though some people say 60%. I'm hearing more and more 80%, which is the number I remember. Between regulation, the inability to get credit, and the inability of venture capital and others betting on these innovators to get liquidity events through M&A, because the FTC was saying no to almost every acquisition regardless of whether it was in the same industry, I think all of that is going to reverse to the benefit of small businesses. The animal spirits are back. The Mag 6 move was all about cash and safety.
Yes, they'll perhaps benefit from AI, and I know there are debates on that: sustained innovation versus disruptive innovation. Nick, Brett, and you have had this debate on the brainstorm. But I really believe that the Mag 6, to the extent they benefit from AI and all the new technologies we think will be turbocharged over the next five years, there will be smaller businesses that benefit much more in terms of appreciation potential, since they've been so beaten down. Chief among them is health care, and the dynamic is going to shift away from Big Pharma, which also far outperformed smaller names. I think Big Pharma will find the world ahead somewhat hostile to its model, and it will seek to infuse some innovation into its veins with some of the multiomic names we've spent a lot of time on over the last ten years.
Cathie Wood provided valuable insights into how US policies could play a pivotal role in driving Bitcoin's growth. She highlighted the potential for crypto-friendly legislation and the exciting opportunities it presents for Bitcoin investors. We'd love to hear your thoughts. Do you believe US policies could propel Bitcoin to new heights? How might upcoming legislation influence your perspective on investing in Bitcoin? For more daily dose crypto news, check out the two videos on your screen. Click now, and we'll see you in the next video.
Comments 0