저자: Kevin · 외국인
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드롭박스(DBX)는 클라우드 스토리지 시장 성장 속 점유율 하락으로 성장률이 둔화(2021년 예상 약 10%)되었으나, 밸류에이션이 낮고(선행 PER 약 26배) 세일즈포스의 슬랙 인수처럼 서비스나우·오라클 등의 인수 가능성이 거론되어 인수 기대감에 투자 가치가 있다는 논리. 다만 투기적 성격이라 포트폴리오의 소액(5~10% 이하)만 권장하며, 24달러 이상은 매수하지 않겠다고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me kevin here i like doubling my money but i also like not losing my money and there might be a company that might be able to help us with this pursuit it's a stepchild of wall street well at least that's been treated like a stepchild for pretty much the entire pandemic and don't get me wrong there's nothing wrong with stepchildren i was a stepchild twice now i'm not a child anymore anyway the company that we're going to talk about has been almost completely ignored until well salesforce acquired slack and it's interesting because the company we're going to talk about is a company that salesforce actually invested 100 million dollars in back in 2018 and this company is called dropbox you've probably already heard of dropbox before but if you're like me you probably just use microsoft onedrive google drive maybe use icloud or amazon because you got suckered in unless of course you skip right over dropbox in the rankings and you go to box.com now box.com not to laugh at them i use box.com a lot when i first made my websites back in 2009 and 10 for my real estate business but anyway i've got to share a little bit about my philosophy first and then we're going to know about where dropbox fits in this is important it's an important philosophy when it comes to stocks and no it's not the philosophy just make sure you actually deposit a hundred dollars because otherwise you won't get the second more valuable free stocks or the philosophy that you shoul no we're not going to talk about those even though you could if you wanted to in the link down below probably by the time you're done with this video you could be signed up for both anyway the philosophy is that look i grew up with companies like best buy circuit city and gamestop and i loved these companies but i don't buy those companies today because i believe in the long term best buy and gamestop won't make it they'll end up like circuit city uh so and look that sounds terrible because i love these companies best buy has actually done really well to revolutionize themselves against amazon and i think they've got insulation because of their appliance services and their wall tv hanging and the geek squad but the reality is at some point we're going to get to a point where these these appliances and devices are just too inexpensive to actually send geek squad out for and you're still going to need people to hang this stuff but i don't know if that's going to keep best buy hanging around the point is my philosophy is i like investing in industries where the wind is at your back it's kind of like sailing with the wind instead of against the wind and after all for all the years that i played world of warcraft the only saying that continues to pop up in my head is the stupid undead characters after you're done talking to them going may the wind be at your back all right i'm done with that i just like having the wind at my back i feel like i'm cheating when i put money money into companies like apple or amazon or redfin or you know heck even etsy like i started buying etsy at 70 and i'm like i don't know they seem like like i know they've got good growth but it's going to be two years before they hit my price target of 150 yeah no six months and they're at 170 okay like i like investing in these companies because the wind is at their back dropbox though is a unique one so you might be thinking like well come on like isn't the wind at dropboxes back i mean after all it's in an industry where the total addressable market also acronymed down to this fancy three-letter word tam over here total addressable market for cloud storage is exploding in 2019 the total addressable market share or market or tam for cloud storage is 46 or was since 2019 was last year 46.12 billion dollars by 2027 we expect this to balloon to 220 billion dollars by 2027.
that is a huge explosion so you've got you know major major growth coming to the cloud sector so why why would i imply by sharing this story about my philosophy that dropbox doesn't have the wind at its back so to speak after all dropbox has market share in fact they've got a decent market share they've got around uh you know probably around 22 market share right now of the cloud storage uh space so let's go ahead and drop dropbox in here and explain what the heck is going on and why why we might be a little bit nervous about dropbox yet why i might still be making a video about them all right so this might be about dropbox's share and the cool thing is when tam gets bigger the total addressable market gets bigger uh basically what happens is every single year you're adding like 22 to this this market uh the total addressable market grows by about 22 percent per year in the cloud storage space and so the neat thing about that is obviously the availability of customers is bigger but dropbox has this unique thing happening where their market share is actually declining like their slice of the pie is actually getting smaller which is not so good but because the pie itself ironically is growing they they still grow as a company because the pie itself is now larger so in other words when dropbox used to have like a 32 market share and now it's down to like 22 they're they're still in this growing industry right so it's kind of like you got the wind at your back but you're in really choppy waters and this is why dropbox as i said is is a unique one and this is risky because we don't like it when their growth rate falls their growth rate in fact is probably going to be somewhere around 10 going forward in the future years and in a market that's growing by 22 that means you're losing market share let's go ahead and look at some of the fundamental financials here and then i want to talk about why the hell am i even talking about this company like why am i wasting my breath talking about dropbox if the wind ain't at their back i mean what did we just learn about the lesson okay well this is a spreadsheet and let me just show you the entertaining stuff not all the boring stuff because right now this looks like the most boring youtube video ever if somebody walked up behind you and they're like dude what are you watching yeah it'd be bad all right so we're gonna we're gonna try to look at the juicy stuff what we want to see is their revenue growth so let's add some beautiful color here in 2017 to 18 we had growth rates around 31 25 19 growth uh oh 16 growth fourteen point nine percent growth estimated twenty twenty one ten point eight percent oh gosh their growth rates are declining not very good right we don't like seeing growth rates decline to me i i just don't invest in companies where they're declining but there's something unique happening here and it has to do first with their valuation so if we look at their earnings per share most companies right now especially after this pandemic earnings per share are just getting squeezed ridiculously i mean it's it's pretty insane how almost every company seems to be selling for at minimum like a 35 times earnings rate or earnings multiple especially if it's a tech company apple sells for like 37 times earnings obviously tesla amazon etsy and some of the bigger recent growth names uh snowflake a lot some of the ones like docusign even with negative growth negative earnings per share have have infinite multiples but even the ones that don't have infinite multiples they've got really really big ones like for example if we look at amazon amazon's got a price to earnings ratio or multiple of 91.
facebook facebook's right there with apple they've actually gotten a lower one but that's possibly because well they might get broken up with all the insane lawsuits we've got going on they're low at 32. uh so when you look around the market space generally you're seeing these big mature companies apple microsoft 35 to 37.
facebook getting beat and punched in the face a bit with uncertainty 32 the real ones with like the big growth the amazon we got that 91 we saw etsy for example 97 right these are these are big big multiples so you're paying to buy these companies well if we look at the estimate for dropbox's earnings per share by the end of 2020 we'll get about 82 cents of earnings well the shares are currently selling for about 24.
so 24. divided by 82 cents a share equals roughly 29 as a multiple so that means dollar per dollar you are paying less for the earnings at dropbox than you are at all of these other companies like apple microsoft google facebook just getting beat up and in fact if we take it a little bit further and we look at okay well what do we think that dropbox's revenues are going to be like in 2021 and we look and say okay well we'll be at about 2.1 billion dollars you know unless they dramatically miss this of course the current estimates are that we should be somewhere around 2.1 billion dollars well in that case we might get about 0.94 so 94 cents in terms of uh actual earnings per share well if i take the same 24 divided by 92 cents that gives us about a forward p e ratio of about 26 based on today's share price that's pretty dang low and now this is really wall street building in a very cheap valuation for this company because people were worried like hey you know if they're declining if their slice of the pie so to speak is declining we can't pay for them like we can pay for a growth company we can't pay for them like a tesla certainly not we can't pay for them like in amazon certainly not but the market's saying we're not even going to pay for them like a microsoft or a google or apple so what's the point of investing in dropbox well after the slack acquisition by salesforce which was a 27.7 billion dollar deal and dropbox just for comparison has a 9.3 billion dollar market cap dropbox even though it might be losing some market share it has recently come into the news because of a potential acquisition this morning the information reported that service now an analytics and workflow company might be interested in buying dropbox now even though i don't know much about servicenow i do know that they have a 105 billion dollar market cap and then they've been steadily growing into what market watch calls a cloud software superpower oracle which is a massive multinational tech company with a market cap of over 182 billion is also being rumored to buy dropbox they're all trying to adapt or buy dropbox so that they can adapt to this new decade this 2020s decade of technology but folks it's not just one article this is something that's been talked about for quite a while and it's starting to ramp up and it's interesting this is why it's speculative because we're starting to get that ramp in the amount of or the frequency at which we're starting to hear about these possible acquisition rumors in fact if we look at this new york times article from december 1st this is when salesforce announced that they were going to acquire slack for 27.7 billion dollars but if we scroll down we'll actually see other firms focused on workplace collaboration products including airtable asana box docusign dropbox and smartsheet may also be potential targets as high valued software companies look to roll up the fragmented market for collaboration tools which they have an entire other article on again going into depth about how these sort of uh companies like salesforce are basically just trying to create mega companies and having all of the different features built into their product and so what you're really getting is you're getting this potential and this is why this is the big reason i'm investing in this and it's still speculative okay this doesn't change anything but you are actually getting into this environment where it makes more sense for these large tech companies to gobble up other companies so that way they can have a suite of services it's kind of like how you know when you call up att and you're like look i just want i just want cell service and they're like but come on if you bundle up with you know home phone lines cell phone tv and internet you know you triple play or quad play or whatever hey we'll give you a better deal companies love this they want to be able to cross sell to their customers just for an example here and i'm going to be transparent because especially to my course members i'm not i don't think i'm very salesy at all to my course members like i think i sent out an email like two or three times a year like hey here's a new course member bundle code or whatever but my course members for example when somebody buys my real estate investing course and they love it it's very likely for them to buy the real estate the stock course or the real estate property management course that cross selling just as sort of a personal level example is something that that i see regularly it's it's totally normal and like i'm sure i could squeeze the lemon much more than i do because i barely do i barely barely do i just hate getting emails myself like it's you can get overwhelmed with spam so quickly it turns me off but anyway you look at companies like like salesforce or these other massive companies like oracle it totally makes sense to go around gobble up what's nine billion dollars when your market caps 200 bill or more you know gobble up some of these other companies integrate the service and boom there you go i mean this one's even a far one but there was even a mention that maybe facebook would look into dropbox it's like really going from social media to to cloud storage look i don't know the point is it's speculative if you do not have the capacity for watching this thing go down to 15 don't buy it but why own a dropbox what's the point especially if it's a company that that you know it's kind of shrinking its market share well the big desire for holding dropbox is speculative at nature so keep this in mind if you are going to invest in dropbox know that it is speculative it it could you know slowly just let the air come out of its balloon and it could go back to 18 19 17 to share in theory uh well the hope that people have is that in the event that dropbox gets acquired that we might see this same sort of explosion that we saw at slack where when their merger was announced this stock went from 29 all the way up to 42 dollars an increase of about 44 depending on when you bought it you would have made some decent money in the short term on slack dropbox is not a company that i'm a big fan of for the very long term it is not a company that i will put a substantial investment in relative to my portfolio i am going to buy and i already have about 2 thousand shares right around twenty four dollars i am not willing to pay more than twenty five dollars a share for this company because at the very least if if we can see some growth return to dropbox we'll see it before the end of 2021 maybe we could take some profits at the end of 2021 right when we get some long-term capital gains opportunities but other than that the goal of owning dropbox is really just to be a part of the potential that this company gets acquired it's not something that i'm going to continue to put money into i've got much more money invested into for example shift technologies a great company that i believe in i haven't invested yet into companies like nano dimension or highly on which were companies i reviewed on uh made review videos on haven't yet invested into airbnb that priced well above uh my targets for airbnb i was hoping to get in around 105 you know somewhere right around there as a maybe but i thought there was a good chance that stock could skyrocket over 120 and sure enough it's now in the 140s after ipo and so that means we would have had no chance to buy it except for a 140 but that's too expensive so dropbox it's a cheap one but the big play on dropbox isn't to hold the thing forever it's to play a potential merger or an acquisition that makes this a speculative play so be careful don't put a lot of money into speculative stocks i generally recommend keep speculating to under five to ten percent of your portfolio but these are my opinions on dropbox about dropbox and folks we'll see in the next video you
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