저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
에어비앤비 IPO(12/10 예정)를 앞두고 매출 성장(2017~2019 급증, 2020 부진)과 재무구조를 분석. 자산 구조상 항공사·크루즈 대비 리커버리 리스크가 낮다고 평가. 다만 S-1상 4분기 실적 악화 경고가 있어 IPO 이후 몇 차례 실적 발표에서 변동성 가능성 제기. 개인 밸류에이션(연 30% 성장, 비용률 55% 가정)으로 적정가 대략 100달러 부근을 상한으로 제시하며 100달러 이하 분할매수 의향, 과열 시 관망 입장.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me kevin here let's talk about airbnb which is expected to go public december 10th probably around 11 a.m eastern time that's usually when we see these guys hit the market and in this video i'm not going to tell you what the heck airbnb is instead i'm going to tell you some really important facts that you got to know if you're considering investing in this company then i'm going to talk about a danger that you got to be aware of you got to know this danger then we'll do some analysis on this and by doing analysis i basically mean i'm just going to show you the analysis that i did and then i'm going to give you my opinion as some random dude on youtube in terms of what i'm going to do so don't sue me bro if all of this is wrong and you end up losing money because you sold the stock when it fell after the ipo but will it fall let's find out quick reminder if you want to join me in my private stock investing live streams where we talk stocks and real estate check out the coupon code down below to get into any of the programs on stocks real estate investing making money from home making youtube videos you could even email me to bundle up by sending me an email to kevin meetkevin.com asking for a bundle all right let's keep this simple and get right into airbnb so airbnb kicked butt before covet gross revenue went from 2.5 billion dollars in 17 to 3.6 and 18 and 4.8 and 19.
that means from the end of 2017 to the end of 2019 that's just 24 months the market revenue almost doubled at airbnb that's insane now kovit obviously threw a wrench in this after all airbnb has to do with traveling and there were insane cancellations airbnb had more cancellations than bookings in march and april when this pandemic started raging over the last 12 months airbnb still though managed to bring in 3.6 billion dollars of revenue which isn't as high as what they had in 2019 but it matches their 2018 revenue despite being in the midst of a pandemic most investors are looking at this as a result as a classic recovery stock but there's a unique twist to this recovery stock see this recovery stock doesn't have the insane expenses or debts that the other recovery stocks have think about this when you buy delta airlines you are getting a slice of a company with 80 000 employees and you are buying a slice of 765 planes that have to be maintained yeah you can buy new planes too at some point and when you buy carnival cruise lines you are buying a slice of 87 ships that are rotting in the ocean right now with 120 000 employees when you look at airbnb you're pretty much buying an app some designers for an app and a customer service team now look airbnb isn't a small company i suppose the way i just described that makes you think it's just a group of people in a garage somewhere no they've got well they had about 7 500 employees but they cut their staff by 1900 team members about 25 because of the pandemic this means they're actually a pretty lean company with only about 5400 employees right now and on top of having a substantially smaller employee group and you don't have airplanes and cruise ships to have to worry about as something you're buying you're also when you buy airbnb you're not buying any commercial real estate which ordinarily you might think oh it'd be nice to have like hotels and buildings in sort of a stock those are good assets right not commercial real estate by all accounts commercial real estate has probably shaved about 30 percent of its total value off gone because of the pandemic hotels are suffering on the flip side residential real estate values have been skyrocketing and people have been eating up buying more real estate and as values go up more people are actually interested in potentially using airbnb to offset their monthly payments on now more expensive properties because the residential sector is booming so with airbnb you're getting a recovery play you're not getting hotels and cruise lines and as many employees and you're actually playing in a sector of the industry that is doing really well residential real estate real estate didn't even see the drop that stocks saw during the march and april panic season and in addition to that if we check out page 409 of airbnb's s1 take a look at this they have about three billion dollars probably closer to about 3.3 billion dollars here in cash and current assets things that could be cash within a year if they needed it if we go down to liabilities they have about 3.7 billion dollars in current liabilities and almost all of their liabilities are current because again they don't have like massive mortgages on commercial buildings that just lost a ton of value so they could almost take the 3.3 billion dollars in cash they have and eradicate the 3.7 billion dollars in liabilities they have much of that the bulk of it here that 2.3 billion are payments that just need to be made to their customers to their vendors so so this is just short-term money that's payable and needs to be distributed so really if airbnb wanted to they could almost pay off all of their debt oh but wait they have this cool thing coming up called an ipo which the ipo is going to raise probably about 3.1 billion dollars for airbnb so you're realistically going to have 3.1 billion dollars of cash plus the about 3.3 that you have now about 6.4 billion dollars they could literally eat up all of their debt and still be rolling with a couple bills in the bank and that's billion not like dollar bills that's pretty crazy so this is awesome right i mean this makes us look at this as a recovery stock and it's like but is it a recovery stock i mean it's in the travel sector but this is really like a software company that has very little chance of going belly up i mean the odds of this filing bankruptcy relative to like a marriott or delta airlines really really low here right so instead we're going to look at this company and focus on growth and this is where things get entertaining see 59 of airbnb customers are between 25 and 44 year olds years old if i include 18 to 24 year olds 74 of airbnb's customers are under 44.
this means you really have a ton of millennials and entrepreneurs and younger people using this service you don't actually even have the people yet with a higher net worth who are generally older you don't yet have the people who are retired who are also generally older than 44 and who have more time to travel and so this is where airbnb has something really interesting about it and it has also to do with this demographic that we haven't quite hit yet at airbnb see when an airbnb host signs up for airbnb there's something known as the positive feedback loop that happens when a host signs up for airbnb guests looking on the airbnb website realize they have more choices people like choices when more guests come to the airbnb website and use airbnb average rental prices go up until all of a sudden you get more hosts coming onto the platform which then drives prices back down again which leads more customers to come onto the platform which again leads more hosts to come onto the platform to always keep this equilibrium price of a stay down to somewhere on an average of 121 dollars per night and quick note this 121 dollars per night is for stays and experiences it gets lowered by experiences if we only look at stays the average sort of price of an airbnb unit per night is upwards of 160 to 170 dollars per night but you continuously grow the service at the same time that's the positive feedback loop of airbnb more users equals more listings and more listings equals more users and as this loop continues to sort of teeter-totter up you also tend through attrition to get the older generations who are retiring or who have retired and are more capable of spending money on traveling more this is a huge potential market and they're only just now trying to convince these older demographics to get into airbnb to actually help these newer airbnb users fall in love with airbnb airbnb launched something called airbnb plus homes according to air dna the airbnb plus sector only represents 0.6 of existing hosts and as this expands airbnb might be able to utilize these plus listings to convince more people to try airbnb because a lot at least from research that i'm finding a lot of the people who are cons who know about airbnb but haven't used it who might be the older demographics are afraid of not having a consistent customer service experience airbnb is trying to solve this with airbnb plus you in order to actually have an airbnb plus listing by the way you have to have a minimum of a 4.8 star rating and a 95 acceptance rate on bookings and this increases the quality being offered to potentially newer customers which if you have a good experience your first time using an airbnb guess what usually happens you come back you're like wow this is great and as millennials gain wealth and have children they'll be more likely to travel more so really just looking at our demographics alone you have this natural growth potential for airbnb to continue to grab and grab market share and see of course airbnb competes with hotels but are hotels actually a risk for airbnb sure but one of the things that i notice is websites like iproperty management which has done analysis on airbnb says that 86 of people actually prefer the convenient locations that airbnb offers which sometimes hotels just can't and 77 of people who are using airbnb report that they like the fact that when they use airbnb they can live like they're a local they don't live like they're a tourist now marriott is trying to compete with this but so far marriott's offerings for you know rental houses have been limited to higher end more exclusive homes and there are very few choices and this kind of goes back to that feedback loop problem in order for you to actually have a positive feedback loop you got to have offerings for people to use the listings and then more people to use them but if you go to marriott and you try to book a home experience in the same fashion as you would in airbnb you wouldn't have a lot of choices that means people end up rubber banding right back to airbnb and potentially never leaving the airbnb service look i mean don't get me wrong it's not all up for airbnb airbnb does have risks as well especially regulation risks but the cool thing about this is a lot of cities and i encourage you to just look at your airbnb rules in your city just google it short term vacation rental rules and then put your city name in there and see what the rules are if you wanted to become a host the cool thing about doing this is you'll see that a lot of cities while there are some that have just outright banned vacation rentals there are a lot of cities that say hey you know what let's just throw a tax on you know a hotel and occupancy tax on these airbnb listings and make some money legalize and tax it rather than ban them for example in the city that i'm in i can run airbnbs anywhere that i want i can't run them in like accessory dwelling units which are smaller units but out of any house in my city i can run an airbnb and basically i just pay a 10 tax to the city and the city's happy about it which is kind of cool you get a lot of this flexibility before airbnb had started becoming more legal or these short-term rentals had become started becoming more legal you had a big risk factor with airbnb that what if my city bans airbnb you know what what if this isn't going to happen right now though the trend is in favor of legalizing and taxing rather than banning in fact i mean just consider this in paris in 2014 airbnb was banned and in 2015 they cracked down on short-term rentals finding people up to 25 000 then in 2017 they said you know what on second thought how about you just register and when you hear register that just means aka get taxed then we'll let you have airbnb so you want an airbnb in paris pay the tax you get yourself an airbnb what about barcelona spain well barcelona spain originally said that's it every single airbnb is getting de-listed unless you pay us a tax and then well you can stay germany for example has also blamed that airbnb increases rent and causes housing shortages and in 2014 banned short-term rentals that have not ex received explicit permission from the berlin senate which that's like okay yeah that's not gonna happen this is for berlin airbnbs right however in march of 2018 the city overturned that law and now people can rent out their primary homes without time restrictions as long as they get a permit and pay the taxes same thing happened in amsterdam and in london you can rent out a place as an airbnb for up to 140 days per year santa monica and san francisco they're probably the toughest but they're kind of the more rare ones here santa monica for example requires that you live on the property and pay a 14 occupancy tax to be able to rent out part of it on a short-term rental basis and in san francisco well airbnbs are allowed also if you're a full-time resident of the actual property itself but you can only do a short-term rental for 90 days within the city otherwise you get fined like 484 dollars per day for a first-time offense and then that doubles if you're a repeat offender aka no profit to be made in san francisco but the point is sure you've got a couple of these holdouts like san francisco and santa monica that are like no airbnb here but across much of the world and many cities throughout the country in america most municipalities are realizing why are we saying no to this just tax it and let it happen so this is all good i mean overall this sounds really exciting okay but what's the danger then well like why should we not invest in airbnb well i always like to get some dangers out of the way especially when we're talking about a lot of exciting things about this new listing coming up everybody wanting to get into the airbnb of course well folks here is the danger on page 23 of their s1 publicly filed prospectus here uh we want to keep this in mind so if you are going to invest in airbnb i want you to specifically know that airbnb told you so so when this happens at the end of uh you know or the beginning of next year when they report their earnings or you know somewhere around april when they report their quarter one earnings of next year uh you you wanna know that airbnb told you so and here's what airbnb told you during the fourth quarter of 2020 another wave of cobin 19 infections emerged as a result countries imposed a strict lockdowns remember we just talked about germany and france a lot of these areas shut down you know airbnb isn't just an american company sometimes we forget that it's like we do have international customers as well and europe is uh much more prone to lock down than we are and certainly less americans are traveling to europe which are usually a big uh you know source of travelers to well europe and european airbnb is therefore but anyway they are telling you here that similar to the impact of the initial covet 19 wave in 20 in march of 2020 we are seeing a decrease in bookings in most affected regions folks like everywhere is a freaking infected region right now okay so so this is this is a problem as a result we expect significantly greater year-over-year decline in nights and experiences booked and gross booking value in the fourth quarter of 2020 then in the third quarter of 2020 and greater year-over-year increases in cancellations and alterations in the fourth quarter than in the third quarter of 2020 aka airbnb is freaking brilliant you want to know why they're brilliant they are brilliant because guess what just ended what just ended is quarter 3 of 2020 which ended september uh 30th right well they're telling you right here in this disclosure that here q4 is basically going to be sad like even not just relative to the end of 2019 but even relative to the last quarter here it's gonna be bad like the numbers are gonna come in poopy doopy and we kind of expect those numbers to come in bad for quarter one as well because not everybody's gonna have a vaccine yet right so here i'll hide myself for a second here quarter number one is also going to be sad maybe hopefully not as sad you know we'll put a little crying thing here there we go maybe not as sad as quarter four but it's it's also gonna be pretty bad we're still gonna have the coven but the thing is quarter four data won't actually be reported until like january and what's airbnb doing that's brilliant airbnb is going hey let's just ipo right after our quarter three earnings which were great because kovid was like over and then oh crap the surge came the surge is happening basically over here in q4 so this is where you've got surge in the yellow over here in the green things were getting a lot better things might be even worse over here in quarter one right and so they're like let's just do our ipo right here with that data basically that's the last financial snapshot we will give investors right there so keep that in mind you are buying at potentially the best recent numbers airbnb airbnb could ever give you like this is this is such a brilliant institutional move that's like well if we want to get the most bang for our buck let's have a bunch of people who think they know how to analyze stocks take quarter three numbers because those were from a pandemic and extrapolate those numbers and think that airbnb is worth a whole lot more than it really is careful careful so so that's the that's a big danger obviously coming up right we know that the next two earnings reports potentially the next three earnings reports are gonna be poopy uh and this is on top of the fact that the fourth quarter is already a seasonably slow quarter so you could potentially see the worst earnings data ever come out from the quarter four report here and they told you so but nobody reads that whole thing so they're going to be like so anyway this means after the airp the the airbnb ipo it's quite possible after the next few earnings reports we're going to see some real uh ups and downs here in in the stock so we might expect some weakness but let's put aside that weakness for a moment let's try to put together some post-covered examples or expectations here for this stock so let's go ahead and pull up some analysis and think okay what do we think postcovid how much could this possibly be worth as a result of what we think of the projections post covid and how much is the stock gonna go up to on ipo day let's talk about that okay here we go let's look at the actual projections so this is my stuff which means i basically pulled it out of my butt and it could be totally wrong so if you lose money and airbnb goes bankrupt don't complain to me so let's look at this uh random assortment of numbers here that i put together if if airbnb's top line revenue grows 30 over the next four years that is we end with a crappy 2024 that's okay not even including that but we have a slow start to 2021 you know quarter one quarter two uh but then we we do better and on average we grow 21 22 23 and 24 at 30 percent per year and top line revenue for airbnb which realistically for airbnb should be entirely possible i mean remember you've got that tiny tiny senior population that's got to wake up and start using airbnb we're expecting after this pandemic a ton of people to start using airbnb more than they ever have before to get back to traveling and get back to some normalcy here in life but anyway 30 growth should not be unreasonable to expect from airbnb we're not here trying to say airbnb is going to double every year it's 30 percent give me an average 30 percent airbnb usually has about 25 percent they set aside for costs so you take 25 off of that for cost now this is a spot where airbnb is a little a little spendy okay and this is going to be an issue over the last uh well quite a few years here i think 2019 18 17 and 16 airbnb has spent around 60 on the low that was on the low when they got lucky but generally around 65 to 70 percent in general administration and marketing so gna and marketing they spend a ton of money combined usually again the low they've had in the past like four years has been 60 they're usually around 65 to 70 in spending in a spot and this is one of the reasons they've been unprofitable but as the company starts saturating more areas and they have to spend less money expanding to new areas and instead new hosts start naturally coming to the platform this number should go down how much this number goes down is a game changer so you have to be very very careful here you will see that in my analysis i have the combination of expenses here for 2024 at 55 percent so it's not like i'm saying they're gonna get this down to forty percent or thirty percent uh-uh it's still going to be high as that changes over time and this is why you can't just blindly buy a stock and then leave it you've got to keep revisiting these companies if this number improves even beyond this projection that's going to be really really good for the stock price so pay attention to that this is kind of like looking at margin at tesla okay you got to see how these companies are spending their money they can make money like crazy but if they just suck at advertising and actually growing their business then that's not good remember they've got like 5 400 employees and they got to be working like a well-oiled machine now there are some people that say hey airbnb just laid off 25 of people you know i mean does that mean or or maybe the better sales people left over i don't know to me i hear that and i'm like that sounds wrong that's brutal like people lost their jobs and livelihoods here but you know wall street is basically if wall street were a human it'd be a dick okay so going back to the projection and if we include 20 as a an effective tax rate assuming biden's going to raise rates to 28 but then their effective tax rate will be lower we could potentially see uh you know in this sort of base case scenario and in my opinion we could potentially see a net income for airbnb of somewhere around 1.5 billion dollars now some analysts think that's too high some analysts think instead of being close to around 15 percent as a net net after everything here some people think that airbnb is gonna be closer to nine percent so uh you know this is my opinion i think they're going to be able to reduce some of their marketing spend and stop spending on these really expensive seo ads and i think as airbnb becomes more mainstream even more so than it already is because it already is the dominant force but as they continue to rob market share which i think they will from expedia and bookings.com uh you know i think airbnb's got really good potential here so this is my base case scenario is that they will have a net income of 1.5 billion divided by the shares outstanding would give us an annual earnings per share of about 2.62 times an earnings rate of uh 50 times or an earnings multiple of 50.
this share price of airbnb could potentially be worth somewhere around 130 dollars in 2024. now what i did here is i wrote down some other p e ratios that exist right now you've got expedia with a forward pe of 112 marriotts with a forward pe a 40. booking has a pe of 63 so i'm probably going a little bit on the average up here for a p e ratio at 50 for airbnb but i'm kind of with the exception of expedia here i mean this is just ridiculous but that's because their sales have been so low uh but uh my opinion is a 50 p e ratio is not unreasonable for airbnb because it's almost like a sas it doesn't have all the plant property and equipment of like a delta or a carnival or a marriott so in my opinion that premium of selling for about 50 times earnings justified here you know apple's like 40 times earnings and even in four years i think airbnb is going to be much more of a fledgling company than air arabia than apple so uh it would be would not be unreasonable to see it even go higher than 50.
50 might even be a little bit on the conservative side for airbnb uh but anyway that means if you at ipo bought shares at 100 and if this projection was accurate and the future share price ended up going to about 130 then you'd only be making about seven percent per year uh on on your investment so uh that's at buying it at a hundred dollars on ipo date and this is kind of the more base case what i'm expecting for airbnb uh definitely not a definitely not a two-banger there right depending on what you buy it for you know if you buy it for 60 well then it's a two-banger it's doubled right now just a quick warning look the market is looking for opportunity anywhere so this is really important even though we're going through these these projections here you've got to keep in mind that i'm multiplying earnings per share by 50.
it's entirely possible that the market's going to say screw you kevin we are going to multiply airbnb's value by a hundred to 200. we don't care about your 50 times earning this is airbnb and we don't care if it loses money for the next eight years we're going to keep buying it even at 100 times earnings or 200 times earnings so do keep that in mind that is entirely possible with how frothy the stock market is right now in which case when you look at these projections instead of multiplying by 50 multiply by 100 to 200 because yeah that could happen i'm not buying uh at those levels you know maybe tiny little tiny little bits if we're closer to reasonableness but uh yeah keep that in mind when you're looking at these numbers that is what the market could do let's now jump on over to the bullish scenario the one thing that i changed over at the bullish scenario you could see i kept this at 55 for the expenses but i said that they might grow at 40 per year that might be a little um that might be pushing it a little bit okay this is the bullish scenario this is like i'm going all in airbnb i believe in this hardcore in this case you using the same spreadsheet here you might be able to see airbnb start knocking on the door of 200 per share in 2024 same 50 times earning multiple here uh you know i this is a little this is a little lofty in my opinion it puts it at a market cap of over 100 billion dollars uh you know that might be pushing it just a little bit we'll see that would give you a nice return though about 15 uh if you got it for a hundred dollars you'd almost be uh doubling your money in those four years you'd be doubling your money in in the fifth year uh so okay all right i mean that's the bowler scenario now the bearish scenario all right bearish scenario this takes the approach that airbnb can't get their costs below 60 uh for for g a and marketing and their growth doesn't grow as much as we'd hoped this is a growth company and when you don't have growth the share price goes mere so let's say they only grow 20 on average per year 2021 2 uh 3 and 4 for the next four years and then they might have revenue of somewhere around seven and a half bill and uh their expenses being at sixty percent they might only take around uh 822 million dollars to the bottom line at the end of 2024.
this would mean that they'd have an earnings per share of about a dollar 36 times a 50 multiple the share price of this company in the future could potentially be as low as 68 bucks this is the bear case scenario this is like airbnb's floundering here okay that means if you buy it for 100 at on airbnb ipo day and we go bear case scenario growth is slow they can't get their expenses down and this thing limps along you're gonna be upside down after airbnb uh ipo day and that's not gonna be so good nobody wants to be upside down nobody wants to lose money so what do you have to know like how do you how do you actually reconcile this all of this and and what do we actually think is going to happen what do i think is going to happen what am i going to do well i'm not going to go super bowl and i'm not going to go super bear here my expectation is we'll probably have some of that scenario in between where a reasonable evaluation for airbnb in 2024 with 30 growth and shaving a little bit of their marketing expenses uh i wouldn't be shocked if this is a hundred you know fifty hundred thirty to a hundred fifty dollar stock in a few years the problem is uh ipo day is going to be insane and it seems like every time i do valuations that are a few years out the stock ends up running up before that no guarantees that that's going to happen but it would not shock me if we see an incredible surge in the ipo pricing or share pricing on ipo day now we do know that employees existing employees or existing shareholders of airbnb are allowed to sell up to 15 of their shares on day one this is really unique usually you have share lock-up agreements that prevent existing shareholders from dumping their shares on ipo day for example snowflake their first lock up expiration is december 16th uh and restricted shares will then be unrestricted and in theory those people could sell their shares if they wanted to that stock is up 60 since ipo day you know you were able to get it for like 240 250 on ipo day on september 14th not even what they priced it at they priced that ipo way lower like down in the 120 130 range i can't remember exactly uh but the point is what you were actually able to buy it for was like 240 and now it's like 390.
so snow did very well snowflake has done great so far first lock up happens on december 16th though that restricted shares availability potentially led to more of an explosive growth here but anyway that's snowflake so what about me well here's me okay if i can get shares at a hundred dollars a share i don't know if i'm jumping up and down for it because in my you know baseline scenario that's gonna make me like seven percent on my money wouldn't shock me for the market to try to price that in my baseline scenario is probably going to get priced in on ipo day now if i get shares for 100 bucks a share or you know honestly it wouldn't surprise me if this just jumps up to 110 a share or potentially even more we'll see we'll see quarter four and quarter one is going to be hard if it jumps up past 100 110 bucks honestly i might just wait for quarter four to or quarter one to add this uh let some of the ipo hype go away because remember every trader and their mother is going to be trying to get into this stock on ipo day it's going to be a frenzy it's going to be madness let all the traders get out let let the euphoria die down let people go oh crap man those earnings sucked and maybe the market is expecting that so who knows i mean anything can happen but look if this thing runs up past 100 bucks it makes me get a little nervous just because i'm really baking in a small return in my baseline scenario and that's not good hey everyone quick update on what you should expect for the airbnb ipo look at doordash on screen here it had its first trade at 182 dollars well it was priced for close to a hundred dollars i think it was 102 to 105 is what it was priced for and it just shot up uh to its first trade at 182.
it's actually there right now it ran as high as about 190 195 so you can see it's trading right around that 180 range there very volatile if we translate this to airbnb that works out to about a 78 bump so if airbnb prices their shares at let's say 65 they might change this again so let's go with 65 times 1.78 we would expect airbnb to trade around 115.
yep that was my expectation so i when i first recorded this video i thought you know look i'll get it if i can get it between 100 to 105. my guess is it wouldn't be a shocker if it starts trading over 120 because the market is so desperate to buy stuff right now there's so much cash in the market that uh honestly fundamental valuation is passe it's sad now i could go bull you know if we look at that bull scenario and we go well my bullish scenario says it's a it's almost a 200 stock you know 180 178 here to 200 stock with just a 50 times earning multiple in 2024 that's a nice 15 return per year again with just a 50 times earnings multiple if they value this thing in four years at 100 times earnings that's like a 30 return per year that's when you make money you make money on airbnb if they smash the growth rate that's where you're going to make money on this so if you're like gung-ho about uh about airbnb i could see you potentially paying 120 bucks a share to get into airbnb and it being okay if you really expect airbnb's growth to be explosive uh i don't i don't know i don't have that 100 confidence yet that we're going to see this insane explosiveness of growth uh and so for me 100 is probably my limit you know can i be convinced that 105 i don't know maybe it's it's getting a little small return i'm really going to have to start seeing the market just really consistently value airbnb higher than i expect they will i would have to see their revenue growth be higher and i'd rather buy them on some of the dips that might come up in the future but they might not you know slow flake fell like 20 bucks uh on after ipo day that's it and then and just recently you know it shot up over 130 so sometimes you're just better to be in and see what happens if you really believe the in the company and of course if you're a bear and and you don't think airbnb is going to do well then certainly you shouldn't even be bothering looking at this stock because it'll probably sell for over you know 80 90 100 per share pretty quickly and uh you know it's not going to be worth that in the future if you're a bear and they don't end up growing and you think that that's what is going to transpire so bottom line out of all of it for me would i buy this at a hundred dollars maybe just for fun i'll throw a nibble in i'll throw a little bit of an order in at a limit of a hundred dollars per share if i get some shares of airbnb great is it going to make sense for me to go crazy for this over you know much over a hundred dollars not really even at a hundred dollars i'm kind of like i don't know i'd almost rather just be a tesla over a hundred dollars uh however if after these next two earnings reports we get some weakness and there's some new opportunities to buy this closer to 80 90 that might look pretty good and if you personally think hey kevin they're gonna smash those growth numbers well you might have the capacity to pay more for this stock that's my pov i like it i'll put my order in i'll put my hat in the ring so to speak am i expecting this thing to go nuts on ipo day heck yeah would it surprise me for on december 10th them to come out and say hey we're going to raise the target to 70 and then it opens up at 95 or 105 no would not surprise me whatsoever i think everybody knows airbnb it's almost like a household name at this point even if they don't use airbnb they're like oh yeah i get into airbnb uh and that creates a serious risk for over valuation so you gotta be careful on the ipo days you could really pay a lot on an ipo day but hey look at snowflake anybody who bought ipo day they're doing pretty well right now so good for them all right everybod consider checking out my amazing programs on real estate investing stock investing making youtube videos you can see all of that ] time
Comments 0