저자: GarethSoloway · 외국인
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나스닥 -3.14%, 관세 우려로 시장 급락. 비트코인 -10%대(85k 부근), 엔비디아 급락 및 주간차트 하향 이탈 임박. S&P 5~6% 조정 수준이라 아직 큰 조정은 아니라는 입장이나 하락 편향 유지. 금 상승(안전자산), 원유 약세, 천연가스 저항 확인 필요. SMCI는 단기 반등 기대, AMD는 스윙 롱 관찰. 채널 유료 서비스 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
hey everybody Welcome to trading the close my name is Gareth Solway Chief Market strategist here at verified investing.com all right crazy Market you could say blood in the streets folks we've seen a massive reversal in the markets after yesterday's or I should say Friday's rally we are now below those lows from Friday that were a gap down before the rally Bitcoin which had the huge move up yesterday coming right back in crashing to the downside still over that 75 73,000 technical support so again there's a lot to discuss but let's get right into it right here folks as we take a look all right so if we take a look right here we have massive sell action the biggest outlier here is the NASDAQ down 3.14% this is a huge drop in one single day especially when it looked like things were going to calm down on Friday not so fast now what's the C here honestly it's probably tariffs right everyone was hoping and praying that the tariffs would be pushed off again uh like last month I think that's why we started the day flat to positive that doesn't look to be the case at least not fully and the markets are now panicking right you have panicking exiting going on here across the board Dow down almost 700 points the S&P is down almost 2% or 110 points oil taking a beating here gold is rallying as a safe haven asset that makes sense and Bitcoin coin look at this down almost 10% on bitcoin right back to 85,000 after getting I think as high as 94,000 yesterday on the day on the back of that Trump tweet about a strategic Reserve all right let's go to the charts here what do we have so this is the big chart that we've been watching folks right so we have this UPS sloping Trend right and that's the key these two lines make a trend it is very clearly an uptrend the problem is this Friday we got back above the line after closing Thursday low again that's okay because we didn't confirm to the downside now today same thing you're not going to confirm you can't confirm a breakdown today but just the mere aspect and what does it do psychologically to investors to have that market get rescued on Friday and then get smoked today it does major technical damage and major psychological damage and that to me whether we bounce again tomorrow or not chances are we are going lower and we will likely confirm whether it be tomorrow or on Wednesday all right so again some big things going on here as we go all right so next up let's take a look at the QQQ we know the q's the NASDAQ 100 here this was already confirmed below this level here we came down to this little pivot low you got a nice little bounce but look at that right back down it goes now the biggest culprit here is NVIDIA folks down 8.75 points on the day huge drop on Nvidia here and again the biggest thing let's walk back to the big board here and take a look the biggest thing for NVIDIA now is the fact that we are looking at a breakdown here that has chance of confirming tomorrow so we can see again this low pivot right here right here right here and right here there it is it closed on the line on Friday or on Thursday we bounced up on Friday and now going below and again it opens the door to confirming a major breakdown and listen you're talking about a stock that basically is 3 trillion in fact a month or two ago was basically 3.5 trillon ion Dollar in market cap to see a stock like this down as much as 10% today which is what it was at the lows before this end of day bounce that's massive and that again think about people and the wealth effect so we talk about is a recession coming is a recession not coming well the reason why a recession hasn't come in my humble opinion is because the wealth effect so when people would look at their statements and be like Oh my 401k is up another 5% this month let me go out to dinner let me go shopping let me do all these things well now it's the reverse and this is the problem and this is why recession will inevitably come when the markets start to decline like they already starting to do people start looking at those statements and they say uhoh inflation's up and I'm seeing my portfolio go down that's problematic all right so again Nvidia we're going to watch tomorrow to see if this breaks down let's go back to the main screen here and take a look smci look at the drop on smci here down to $36 now actually this one to me is a buy and I picked it up in my service today smart money stocks and ETFs and I'll show you why so look at this trend line here beautiful Downs sloping trend line you had your breakout here you could even make a case shoulder Head and Shoulder so an inverse Head and Shoulder and then what do we call this we call this a retrace to the scene of the crime there's also a gap fill right here so you have two trend lines coordinating and basically dissecting right here with price coming into it we should and I say should because listen if we're in the full collapse Mode Nothing could stop it but we should probability wise see some sort of bounce back again how high I don't know maybe back to 40 maybe back to 43 but either way I would expect a short-term bounce on smci off of this and by the way folks this is a huge drop I mean if we just look at this this was trading at $66 46% drop in basically a week and a half on smci that is incredible just in case it goes lower you always want to have a backup plan what happens where do I add to this position right here folks see this level right here pivot low to Pivot low this is how I make decisions not because of a whim or emotion I say okay technically this is a support let's give it a shot here if it goes here I'm going a dollar cost average and look for a bounce off this level those would be my two levels level one hit today level two tomorrow semiconductors overall look at this nasty breakdown so same thing we could be on the verge of confirming a longer Trend breakdown on the SMH nasty right there and lastly I just want to bring this to your attention this is a chart I'm keeping a close eye on AMD for a potential swing trade long look at this here look at this trend line down sloping and this UPS sloping one right here look at how they're coming together right around 90 bucks give or take so it's start starting to get a little interesting but isn't it amazing how early in 20124 and through most of 2024 we saw these stocks just be so powerful they really took this market and just ran it up and continue to make new all-time highs now a lot of them are in collapse mode and way way off highs all right we got to get into Bitcoin here let's take a look at Bitcoin look at this nasty reversal today I'm going to go to the big board to kind of dissect this here so let's take a look so if we look at Bitcoin number one we knew we had broken down from the 92,000 level which was right here right okay so that was number one let's walk it through on a technical basis no emotion No Nonsense let's just think about the chart it closed below and it confirmed so now you have a confirmed breakdown below 92,000 on bitcoin what does it mean means that unless it confirms back to the upside it doesn't matter it's still a breakdown and you short into resistance so what did I do yesterday with members in my smart money crypto service we shorted Bitcoin just above 93,000 right there notice again the two trend lines converging right there all right the idea being is this should pull back now did I think it was going to reverse the entire move today I had no idea about that I just thought overall it would start to come back in off of that level now this again is very very bearish regardless of motion take a motion out of it just think about it logically you had this great news yesterday for crypto a strategic Reserve with Bitcoin and cardano and ripple and all these others right xrp and then all of a sudden in one day the entire move is negated is that bullish or bearish the answer is bearish psychologically it messes with Bull's heads and that's the problem so doesn't mean you can't bounce wouldn't surprise me to bounce up but eventually I still have the bias based on chart analysis that we are going lower where to 75 73,000 would be the first level not to say that's where it ends that's the first level of technical support last uh week late last week right here we hit about 78,000 so we actually kind of came close to it but again in general eventually we should make our way down there then we have to watch does that level hold on a technical basis all right couple other charts today uh number one gold gold reversing or or pushing back up nicely here folks as I'm just looking here bear with me as I get the correct chart that I want to show you guys here oh we're just on stocks here there we go so there we go so here's a good gain on gold gold had been down a few days in a row now a safe haven it's pulled off of the highs people rushing back in nothing new to dissect here I still favor some downside into this level right here around 2790 and then we go to the um this chart on Silver and silver actually got a little bit of a bounce today too which is nice to see maybe behaving a little bit like a safe haven as well even natural gas caught a bid today but oil did not all right overall quickly looking at oil here then we'll look at OCTA OCTA again has earnings after the Bell today um again you can see oil trading lower today support is still 66 so unless it gets to 66 there's nothing for us to do here and lastly look at that pop on natural gas today up 8.6% on the day the key is to understand the technicals this is your resistance level until proven otherwise so again it is a sell unless it takes out and confirms above 440 on natural gas let's quickly go to OCTA here in the after hours and see if there's anything ah yeah it is popping here folks uh so again I can just see the after hours look at that nice pop now again is this company big enough to kind of negate the negativity it probably isn't we're going to need something positive on tariffs out there but either way that is a big pop $10 over 10% bounce on OCTA here if we look at technical levels the 100 even number right up here would be your first level a pierce of 100 you can see this high right here that should be your first level around 100.5 and then if it trades through that 104 would be the next level of resistance so I know the guys are on earnings Trader they're trading this in the after hours feel free to join smart money stocks and ETFs to get access to the earnings Trader and day trade these things live with us in the after hours but really quite something today folks so I think the essence of today's action is that markets again the downside move today negating that move up is very very bearish we haven't conf confirmed on the S&P but we're watching for that Nvidia might confirm if things confirmed tomorrow it opens a whole new can of worms for downside and we were just discussing this in the live trading room is that markets are only down about 5% 6% off their all-time highs this isn't even a blip on the screen of a correction so if you're looking at this market and you're like oh my goodness I will caution you I traded through 2008 2009 I traded through covid I traded through the dot bubble this is a child's play type action even as crazy it as it is it's just we've been conditioned to always assume it's just going to bounce right back up be careful folks if time is up truly there's a lot of downside to be had but again at the same time if you're a swing Trader there's a lot of bounces along the way you guys have a great one I'll talk to you tomorrow in the game plan for
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