저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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트럼프-젤렌스키 백악관 충돌로 우크라이나 평화협상 및 미국의 안보 공약에 대한 우려가 커졌으나, 유럽 방산주 강세와 유럽의 결속 가능성을 긍정적으로 봄. 1월 실질 GDP 급락은 관세 앞둔 수입 급증과 날씨 영향이며 1분기 GDP는 1.5~2% 플러스 예상. 관세는 협상용 카드이며 결국 관세 인하로 이어질 것으로 전망. S&P500 연말 목표 7,000 유지, 시장은 3월 중순 재정적자/예산 협상 전까지 등락 예상. 인도 시장은 외국인 리밸런싱에 따른 조정 후 펀더멘털 양호하다고 봄.
다듬은 글
uh you know the U Trump and Ukraine's president zalinski of course met in the white house uh and actually clashed in the white house uh that's basically the way to put it uh so there was uh I mean if those visuals you would have seen a full day of uh sort of meetings Etc then there was a press conference which was scheduled and that press conference was uh just a briefing before that minerals deal was supposed to be signed where uh you know us gets access to devop Ukrainian mineral and oil and gas assets Etc in exchange for mediating a peace between Ukraine and Russia uh and it was just supposed to be I mean you know things looked like I mean if you watch the full 50 minutes uh things were actually going pretty well except the last 10 minutes or so and specifically the last 7 minutes when uh it really all kind of went up in smoke and there were arguments in front of TV cameras uh and uh then Mr zilinsky was actually asked to leave the white house uh so uh you know it was a complete disaster which really played out in that sense what is this now mean of course I mean the uh in terms of uh just watching this it kind of opens the doors in terms of what happens behind the doors because this is you don't see this very often I don't think we've seen this at all uh so rais voices attention uh Etc butth what does this now actually mean for the peace process because markets have been at least uh you know some of some markets have been pricing in a deal a peace deal which is which was imminent does that get pushed out now Ed yini is president at yini research Ed good morning good to have you with us here thank you for waiting what does this mean Ed according to you well I think we've already seen uh one obvious reaction to what's going on and that is the defense stocks have been very strong in Europe I think there's a a growing sense that uh the whole NATO structure is uh being questioned uh the commitment to the United States to defend Europe is being questioned and certainly the commitment of the United States to defend and help uh Ukraine is uh certainly being questioned uh but you put it all together and it's going to force the Europeans to get their act together which could be a positive as you know the stock market there is doing extremely well it's partly because it's cheap and maybe it's partly because uh they they are going to have to respond to this changed geopolitical situation the the New World Order that seems to be emerging by becoming stronger more united and having more of direct policy so I think that's actually turns out to be a positive for the for the global economy it might actually allow the United States to uh cut back a little bit on defense spending uh simply because uh the Europeans will be picking up more of their own U spending but I think for the for the stock market in the United States as we saw uh when the uh acrimony when the dispute was going on in the White House the stock market sold off uh but then it had a nice rally at the end of the day I I think at the end of the day what really matters here is the economy and um there's been some concerns that the economy is weakening I think a lot of that had to do with weather January was the coldest month we've had uh a January month that we've had since 1988 uh and so I'm expecting to see a pretty nice rebound here in retail sales uh employment and so I think a lot of This concerns about uh a soft Landing a soft patch a recession I think that'll evaporate just the way it did during the summer of uh of uh 2023 that's interesting Mr yard and you've been maintaining a positive stance on the US economy and the US Stock Market for a while and you've got it right all along so you're saying that this is just maybe a transitory phase so not too concerned about those numbers like you know the consumer spending number retail sales this there was Atlanta uh you know fed GDP tracker which is predicting uh uh you know a drop in GDP in the first quarter so you don't see uh this as being a concern what about tariffs when people are getting worried about uh what it does to inflation and if that's a reason for the market to take some profit off well what just happened with the uh estimate for real GDP is very much related to the question that you just asked about tariffs uh clearly a lot of importers decided to get moving faster and to bring Goods into the United States before the tariffs are slapped on them so we had this huge increase to a record high in uh Imports and uh when we calculate real GDP we subtract imports from that number and so it was sort of this anticipation of tariffs that led to a huge increase in Imports at the same time consumers were didn't really spend much uh dur actually consumer spending went down in January because of the bad weather so it all added up to a sharp fall in Real GDP I think a lot of that's going to be reversed I think the first quarter is still going to come in positive for real GDP at one and a half to 2% with regards to the tariffs uh you know this is the art of the deal uh to uh remind us of the book that uh Trump wrote and kind of what he views as his Moto Sapp arendi how he gets things done what's unusual as you folks said is that it's so public and it it was pretty ugly to watch on on fr Friday uh but it is deal making it's not a pretty site and I think uh at the end of the day we're going to find that there's going to be a lot of negotiations that actually lead to lower tariffs I think that's really the point of all these reciprocal tariffs that the United States is imposing is say we're just not happy with the the current uh trade situation and we need to have it improved so I'm not I I think this all ends well I don't think it ends badly okay all right then what would that mean for the stock market Ed uh you know you were calling for a couple of months ago that the US markets could cool off a little bit that's happened to some extent where do you see the US markets headed from year on and what about the Indian markets we have been under the weather uh you know for the last few months post this correction and since the economy appears to be improving on ground what's your view on the Indian markets well with regards to the to the US Stock Market um I I did think we were going to have a cooling off a pullback maybe even correction in January January turned out to actually be a strong month uh but I think we're we're experiencing that choppiness right now we haven't made a new high uh well actually we've made a new high February 19th not not too long ago but it's really been kind of choppy at this kind of record high level uh for for a few months and I think it remains choppy until we get through uh the fiscal deficit uh budget negotiations that are coming up here in mid-march and then I think the market goes up on better than expected economic growth but expected earnings and I still I'm using 7,000 as my target by the end of this year for the S&P 500 with regards to the Indian market I think what we're seeing is that Global Investors decided that uh they have uh too much in the Indian market the valuation multiples got stretched and they saw an opportunity to uh rebalance their uh portfolios more into China more into Europe and those stocks stock markets have done well well and now I think it's back to the fundamentals and as you said the fundamentals for India still look pretty good the stocks are are cheaper now and so I I think we're going to find a a bottom here uh but we may have some consolidation for a while uh before we resume The Climb towards the previous record high so I I think it's kind of the same story for India and and the uh and the United States stock markets uh a great performance uh some need for profit taking consolid ation the underlying fundamentals are still quite good Global Investors will diversify back into India and into the United States okay all right Mr yini we will leave it on that note for this morning thanks very much for joining in that's good to hear I think uh the you know Market participants in India will even take consolidation with both hands as long as the fall stops
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