저자: kazuma · 외국인
요약 보기
미시간 소비자심리지수 호조와 AI 기대로 미국 증시가 급등했다고 진단. S&P500이 2023년 10월 저점 대비 약 20% 상승한 상태이며 작년 패턴과 유사하다고 보고, 1월 26일 무렵 고점 근처 도달 가능성을 제시. 이에 따라 보유 중인 SOXL·TECL을 2월 초 매도할 계획이라고 밝힘. 50일선 상회 종목 비율 기준 강세 신호도 언급.
다듬은 글
Amidst the outpouring of opinions that prices couldn't possibly rise any further after the surge on January 18th, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was released on January 19th. This index, compiled by the University of Michigan's Research Center, is based on a monthly survey of 300 people and measures current sentiment and expectations for the future.
The January data showed that consumers were becoming increasingly optimistic about various aspects of the economy, showing confidence in a soft landing. Inflation expectations one year ahead were at their lowest level in three years, and further boosted by expectations that the AI boom in artificial environments would further propel the market.
In this greedy, bullish state, US stocks surged again on January 19th, with P reaching a new all-time high for the first time in two years. So, I think my assets, as well as those of the Ponkotsu Family, have also skyrocketed. Soxl is expecting a second consecutive day of surges, far exceeding its level at the end of last year, with an unrealized gain of 162 and a profit of 321, and its investment amount is 520.
Tecl is down 60% of its unrealized gain. : Breakthrough The amount invested from 280,000 yen has become 5,700,000 yen So, while Tesla is getting beaten hard, the 3x Bull has risen sharply, so it has broken through the all-time high asset value of 1,300,000 yen and exceeded 1,562,000 yen Although it was getting beaten hard, as of the time the market closed on January 19th, the previous month's profit had exceeded 460,000 yen Congratulations to all the members of the Ponkotsu family And for now it is completely my imagination US stocks are moving in the dollar, and I have introduced many times before that the market from the low in October 2023 to the present is quite similar to the market from March to July of last year, but this is a comparison of the P500 chart as of the time the market closed on January 19th and last year's market, and it can be seen that as of the time the market closed on January 19th, it was moving in almost the same way as last year, and last year the P500 hit its low during the period shown in 5 It has been rising sharply since then, and is currently rising sharply again after hitting a low during the period indicated by number 5.
And, based on the trend in 2022, when it rises by +20% from the low, a correction begins and it falls afterwards, so unless this trend is broken in this cycle as well, the SP500 has risen by +20% from the low it hit in October of last year. 4924-1 The SP500 rose by approximately $17.99 on the candlestick chart and +1.99% on the SU chart from the low in October of last year to January 19th, and this rose by approximately 17.8% from the low in March 2023 to July 12th.
When I applied this to the current market in Friday's live broadcast, I said that it was probably around July 11th, and the result was that the market the following day showed that it almost perfectly matched the current rate of increase. The period of rise from July 12th of last year to the high on July 27th was 11 trading days.
So, if we apply last year's market to the current market, the SP500 rose 20% from October of last year in the week of February 5th, 11 trading days after January 19th. Looking at the chart of 4924-1, I mentioned that a reverse calculation pattern was being formed. This is a chart of the SP500 on the 1-hour timeframe at the close of trading on January 19th, and you can see that the SP500 has clearly broken through the neckline and the reverse calculation pattern is complete.
And in July of last year, after the reverse calculation pattern was completed, the price rose sharply to a high using the 20-day moving average as support. If this time, as in last year, the price rises sharply to a high after the reverse calculation pattern is completed, it means that there is still room for the SP500 to rise.
And currently, the SP500 has risen 1.99% from October of last year, so assuming that July 12th is the current date, which shows almost the same rate of increase, the SP500 11 trading days later will be From 4924-1, after the first trading day, it is clear that the S P frame has already risen to near its high.
Therefore, if it rises to near its high from now until the next trading day, then the SP will reach near its high by the next trading day from January 19th, that is, by next week, January 26th. This means that I may sell the soxl and tecl that I currently hold as early as the end of next week. And here, on the SP frame chart, I am showing an upper resistance line connecting the highs and a support line connecting the lows.
Similar to last year, if the SP frame reaches 4924-1 24 points on February 5th, 11 trading days from now, it will touch the upper resistance line, so it is unlikely that the stock price will rise sharply to touch the line, and I expect that there will be a correction after touching the upper resistance line, and if it rises by about 1.7 from the level of January 19th as planned, 4924 - There is still room to rise 1.7%, so there is a possibility that it will continue to rise next week.
During the period when the S&P 5 rose by 1.55 from January 16th to January 19th, reaction stocks rose sharply, and SOXL rose by about 20%, and the fact that the P-frame of the feed still has room to rise by about 1.7 from its current level means that SOXL could rise by 10% or 20% from here. If we draw the same resistance lines on the SOXL chart as we did on the S&P P-frame chart, using the highs of September 2022 and July 2023, we can draw such resistance lines.
If SOXL's stock price rises to the upper resistance line in 11 trading days from January 19th, like the S&P 500, then SOXL will rise by about 20% from its current level and reach around $43. However, I am only using the S&P 5 as a reference. Since I'm investing in this way, I will sell if SNP5 doesn't rise to 4924-1, but if I draw a resistance line on SOXL, I'll get comments saying that's not a reliable reference, so I'll leave it at that, but I'm really looking forward to seeing how high SOXL will rise next week.
And if we refer to last year's market, it will hit a high in the first half of February, but this year is a presidential re- election year, and the average return in past presidential re-election years is shown by the green line, and we can see that in the past stock prices have risen in January and February, and this year as well, the SP amount has risen in January, so so far it is showing a trend similar to the average return in the past, and we can see that in the past the high was in February, but the next day the low was in the second half of March.
So if I sell SOXL and TECL in the first half of February and it follows the past trend, the next target for buying back will be the second half of March. And in considering buying back after selling, I previously did some testing with SOXL However, CNN's Fear & Greed index has shown that if you buy on a day when the index hits extreme fear, the stock price is near its lowest point, making it an excellent opportunity to buy.
So, if I sell in February, I'll be watching to see when Fear & Greed 2 hits extreme fear and look for the right opportunity. After the market closed on January 19th, the Fear & Greed index was 72, and if the SNP500 continues to rise in the week of January 22nd, the Fear & Greed index will undoubtedly rise to an extreme greed state.
So, as someone planning to sell, I was anticipating selling when the index was in an extreme greed state, and my envisioned scenario is about to come to fruition. However, for those who are planning to hold and buy more, the signal has turned too high and the index is in a greed state, so it's not an ideal opportunity.
Therefore, whether you sell or hold, buying more at this stage is quite risky, as Warren Buffett has said. When you're greedy, you have to invest cautiously. And if you're predicting a decline so much that you're even selling, some of you might think that after selling, you should invest in something like SOXS or TECS, betting on the decline, to increase your assets.
I'd like to talk about that in more detail later, but for now, I'm thinking of doing SOXS as a game because it would be fun for YouTube. And even if I had plans to sell in the future, I'm not trying to incite a stock market crash. As I mentioned in my previous video, when the percentage of stocks above the 50-day moving average exceeds 90%, the risk increases in the short term and stock prices may fall.
However, if the percentage of stocks above the 50-day moving average rises from less than 15% to more than 90% within 50 days, there is a 100% probability that the P500 will rise a year later, generating an average return of more than 20%, and the fact that this signal appeared in January 2024 means that the next year will be a very bullish year.
So, I'm planning to be quite aggressive in 2024 as well. I'm not selling because I'm scared of a decline, but rather to seize an opportunity and gamble. But how will US stocks perform in the future? If a sell signal appears next Friday, I could do an interesting project like a live sell announcement.
All buy/sell updates will be on Instagram, so if you're interested, please come and check it out. However, please, absolutely do not try to imitate me seriously. I'm just an amateur, clumsy YouTuber who delivers content about alcohol. But if watching this clumsy video makes you want to become super rich, farce until the end today. See you in the next video!
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