저자: RakeshJhunjhunwala · 외국인
요약 보기
라케시 장준장왈라는 인도 경제와 항공·은행·의료 섹터에 대해 장기 낙관론을 펼쳤다. 항공: 아카사항공은 단순 저가항공이 아닌 비용효율 항공사라고 주장했다. 인도 1인당 소비 증가로 항공 수요가 늘어 2년 내 승객이 1억4천만에서 4억명으로 늘고 항공기가 2.5배 필요하다는 민간항공부 장관 전망을 인용했다. 은행: 국영은행(State Banks)을 가장 크게 베팅한다고 밝혔다. 대출 수요 증가로 가격결정력이 커지고 충분한 충당금 여력이 있다는 두 가지 근거를 들었다. 의료: 병원 섹터에 매우 낙관적이라고 했다. 다만 보험 확대 시 병원 업무량이 늘고 병원 건설·운영이 어렵다는 점은 언급했다. 인도 경제: 인도 GDP는 1947년 2.7조루피에서 2022년 197.5조루피로, 외환보유액은 30억달러에서 5,740억달러로, 시가총액은 1988년 236억달러에서 2022년 3,437억달러로 성장했다고 제시했다. 향후 10% 성장 가능성을 언급했다. 기업: 1947년 이전 설립된 대기업들(Indian Hotels, Tata Steel, ITC, Britannia, Tata Power, Berger Paints, Bata, HUL 등)의 장기 성장 가능성을 질문받았으나 개별 종목에 대한 명확한 답은 없었다. 디지털화: 암바니의 저렴한 통신 요금이 디지털화를 이끌었다고 평가했다. 통신: 5G 경매 후 2강 경쟁 구도이며 BSNL 구제책이 나왔지만, 지속적 투자가 필요해 현금흐름이 약한 섹터라 투자 대상이 아니라고 봤다. 단기 시장: 연준과 인도중앙은행의 금리 인상 속에서도 인도 증시는 완만하게 상승할 것으로 전망했다. IT서비스: 향후 5년 이상 10~15% 성장할 것으로 전망했다. 원유: 유가가 40달러 하락했지만 기업 실적을 밀어올리지는 않을 것으로 봤다.
다듬은 글
Welcome to a special edition of CNBC TV18. I'm Shirin Bhan, and we're reporting from right inside the walls of the decision-making center. Behind me are the North and South Blocks, symbolizing milestones in the development of the Indian economy, and, of course, an important milestone for India, as we celebrate the 75th anniversary of our independence.
In this context, the weekend was interesting: India witnessed the launch of its newest budget airline, Akasa Air, backed by seasoned investor Rakkesh Jhunjhunwala. And now I am happy to invite him to our program. Rakkesh Jhunjhunwala, it's always nice to see you. Thank you for joining us on CNBC TV18.
First of all, congratulations on the successful takeoff of Akasa. You know, I want to start with this. You have always believed in India's success, but many have questioned your decision to invest in Indian aviation, as this is a field where many dreams have taken flight , but many have never been able to overcome gravity.
So, given that the airline has already made its maiden flight, how confident are you about the prospects of Indian aviation? Hello. Hello. Mr. Jhunjhunwala . Mr. Jhunjhunwala, can you hear me? Yes, I hear you. Well, I am very, very confident in the development of Indian aviation. I feel very confident and calm, and I believe Akasa will be a very competitive airline.
We are not just a low-cost airline. We are a cost-effective airline. So you're saying you're not a budget airline, but a thrifty one. I had the opportunity to chat with your team at Akasa: Vinay Dubey and Aditya Ghosh. And they have clearly stated that they will not try to disrupt the market solely on price.
They strive to innovate through customer service quality and efficiency improvements across the airline's entire value chain. To your point about it being a low-cost airline, not just a budget airline. I want to understand what exactly changes you think Akasa will bring to the market and more importantly, what growth potential do you see for the airline and Indian aviation in general?
Hello. Yes, Mr. Jhunjhunwala. Continue. We have already brought changes to the aviation business. You know, our competitors are already ordering new seats in response to the ones that are installed in our aircraft, and I think, you see, India has reached a certain level of per capita spending , and that discretionary spending will increase.
And therefore, people will fly much more. And, moreover, the esteemed Minister of Civil Aviation...predicted that in four years we will grow from 140 million passengers per year to 400 million . Do you know what this means? And we will need two and a half times more aircraft than we have now. Hello.
Yes. So, you're essentially saying that we're going to need significantly more planes in the sky to take advantage of the projected growth in air travel. And of course, India is today the third largest market for commercial civil aviation, but Mr. Jhunjhunwala, you have already made strategic bets on the aviation sector as well as the insurance sector.
What else are you looking at strategically? Where else could you make a strategic investment that you could strategically support? Are there any other sectors that interest you from a strategic perspective? State banks, state banks, and state banks are what I'm betting big on. And what is the hypothesis behind such large bets on state-owned banks?
You said you are very optimistic about state-owned banks. What hypothesis underlies your confidence? What hypothesis leads you to trust state-owned banks? Why are you so optimistic about state-owned banks today? I think it's because the demand for loans will increase, and as a result, the pricing power of banks will increase.
And second: they have very good reserves. I mean, I think they'll deduct profits, you know, instead of creating reserves. Two reasons why I am so optimistic: the growth in lending gives them pricing power and they are well-stocked with reserves. Good. So, you believe in the growth of lending, and you think that this will ensure the success of state-owned banks.
This is a niche you believe in has potential. Apart from that, since we are talking about India in the context of the 75th anniversary. Yes, continue. Those who can borrow can lend, and they have excellent state-owned banks, an excellent network, and a great ability to attract deposits. Yes, you are absolutely right to point that out.
You know, we are talking about India in the context of its 75th anniversary. And a little bit of data that we looked at: in 1947, India's GDP was 2.7 trillion rupees. Today, in 2022, it is 197.5 trillion rupees. If we talk about foreign exchange reserves: in 1947 they amounted to $3 billion , today, in 2022, they are $574 billion .
We are talking about India's market capitalization. Of course, we can't go back all the way to 1947. But if you simply compare 1988 and 2022, India's market capitalization has grown from $23.6 billion in 1988 to $3,437 billion in 2022. I also look at some of the big business conglomerates, the big companies that have survived the last 75 years.
Companies founded before 1947. Indian Hotels, Tata Steel, ITC, Britannia, Tata Power, Berger Paints, Bata, HUL, and many more. Which of these companies do you think have the strength, potential, and opportunity to continue accelerating growth over the next decades ? Well, I think India is going to enter a golden period and you know, I see India growing at 10%.
So, given that you believe in India growing at 10%, you mentioned public sector banks as one of the sectors that you are optimistic about. What other possible consumer sectors are there? Where else do you think there will be opportunities? Where else do you think we could see the kind of growth that you predict will take us into double digits?
I am very I am also very optimistic about the healthcare sector state-owned banks and hospitals. Of course. So let me understand, as you observe various trends emerging today, digitalization is a big topic that has added new wings to many companies and many sectors in India. The focus on digitalization is being implemented in various sectors.
How confident are you in this and its transformative power, and how would you support the topic of digitalization? Well, I think this process is ongoing, and it will develop further over time. And I have to, you know , thank Mr. Mukesh Ambani for the changes that he's brought about in India, because, you know, the low cost of connectivity, whether it's voice or data, is what has driven digitalization in this country.
And we can't thank Mr. Ambani enough for the wonderful, you know, low cost that he's provided through digitalization , and, you know, both for voice and for connectivity, for both. I think this country should be eternally grateful to Mr. Ambani for what he has done for the telecom sector, as it is what has made digitalization possible in this country.
You are talking about the telecommunications sector. We have just witnessed the completion of the 5G spectrum auction. At this point, it's essentially largely a two- player competition. The government has also now prepared a relief package for BSNL . How do you assess the prospects of the Indian telecom sector from this point forward?
Was this a story you had been betting on in the past? Is this a story you will revisit? Mr. Ginger, I was asking you about the telecommunications sector and whether it would be of interest to you again now that the 5G spectrum auction has concluded. We see that the government has introduced a recovery package, a rescue package for BSNL.
Essentially, it was a two- player battle between Bharti and Jio. Vodafone Idea hopes this will mark the beginning of the recovery process. But how do you view the telecommunications sector? Are you ready to bet on him again? I don't think this is a very good sector for investment because it constantly needs investment.
Therefore, there are no real cash flows here. There is no real cash generation. Of course. So, this is not the sector you will be considering. But I want to ask what you think about the current state of the markets, Mr. Jhunjhunwala. We saw the Fed raise rates. The Fed is expected to continue raising rates .
We just saw a 50 basis point rate hike from the MPC. The global environment remains complex . How do you think all this will affect our markets, domestic stock markets in the short term? What are your predictions for the markets in the short term? I think Mr. Jhunjhunwala, thoughts on the markets in the short term I think Mark I think I think the markets will go up but, you know, at a slower pace regardless of world events.
I believe that Indian markets will grow, but at a slow pace. OK. Mr. Jhunjhunwala, congratulations. This is Prashant from the studio. It's always nice to see you on the air. Mr. Jhunjhunwala, crude oil prices are one of the big variables for us as it is our largest import bill. And that has a big impact on our growth story, but oil prices are down $40 from their recent high.
Do you think this could once again drive corporate earnings growth over the next many years if prices remain stable? No. Because health is a very important element. And if health insurance increases, hospital workload will increase, and it is very difficult to build hospitals. And, you know, managing them too.
I am very optimistic about hospitals. Of course. Of course. You told us that hospitals and state-owned banks are two areas you are betting on. Let me ask you about a couple of other sectors, Mr. Jhunjhunwala. The first is IT services, which seem to be at a crossroads. Many believe that demand for Indian IT services will slow down.
On the other hand, digitalization is not going anywhere, and we have world-class IT companies . What is your opinion on this sector? IT services. Mr. Jhunjhunwala, I just wanted to know your opinion about IT services. Well, I think they will grow by 10–15%. I think for the next 5 years, or maybe forever.
Growth in the IT sector will not stop , regardless of any organization in the world. Of course. Good. This is a great optimist. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala is clearly optimistic about several sectors. State-owned banks, in his opinion, are the right choice. So he is clearly positive about this issue. Extremely optimistic about the medical field, and he believes the markets are poised to continue growing and accumulating profits from this point forward.
And, of course, his new venture—he just took a step into the aviation industry. He believes that there is ample reason to believe that the aviation sector is in an upward trend.
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