저자: MeetKevin · 외국인
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연준 파월 인터뷰(NPR, 2020.09)를 해석하며 기술 활용 능력에 따른 소득 격차 확대를 설명. 세계화로 임금·물가가 낮게 유지되어 저물가가 수년~수십년 지속될 수 있다고 주장. 인덱스펀드 장기 수익률(연 7~9%)이 시장 참여 증가로 3~4% 수준으로 낮아질 수 있다고 전망. 부동산 등 기술 활용 사업 권유.
다듬은 글
hey everyone meet kevin here the dude with the money printer the federal reserve chairman mr jerome powell j pal just gave an interview on npr and there were some really big takeaways that i want to go through one of the things he talked about is exactly why people are stuck poor than others what happens with wages over time and what we might expect to happen with longer term returns and things like index funds now i put a lot of research into this it was not just the interview because with jerome powell and pretty much any of these economist people you got to do a lot of reading between the lines and then going ah that's what he's getting at because they won't directly tell you that but don't worry i've already put all the ahas together into this video so i'm super excited to share it with you just a heads up in case you want more big aha moments check out the courses that i have linked down below on stocks and money i and even how to make money making youtube videos from home there's a labor day coupon code down below first let's get started with the content mr jerome powell started off by talking about this crazy thing called inflation basically when prices go up and our wages go up over time like our money becomes less valuable but he answered something that was very important he helped answer why it is that sometimes people make much more money and sometimes people make much less money like what's the difference between the two people is one person just lazier than the other person or is there something else well to make this simple there are two types of people according to jerome powell we have some people with mario star power and then we have other people with a hammer jerome powell believes that some people make more money than others despite working similar hours because of quote the plateauing of education basically as technology advances it's the people who are educated in technology who are able to apply their skills and their efforts with the ride of technology and they make more money because of that think about it kind of like being on a conveyor belt at the airport the people using technology in their jobs are on this conveyor belt and somebody keeps turning the dial on that conveyor belt up and up and up like the belt keeps moving faster and faster and faster and it's the people with the hammer who are walking along the side trying to keep up remember the people using technology they're the star power people and it makes sense because they can essentially plow through the competition think just for example people who work for tesla tesla a company who's destroying the car industry by giving people self-driving cars which is basically what the people want after all and when you give the people what they want you make more money that is a star power or my favorite being a real estate agent when i started as a real estate agent and became a real estate broker most agents i knew were clueless about things that are like super basic and a lot of this is still true today for example i keep a laptop and a laptop stand in my car with a power inverter so i can write offers faster than anybody else use google drive and dropbox to make progress on transactions faster than anything else and very few people in the real estate industry are actually tracking their lead conversions using an ipad when they're going door knocking it's little things like that that give you star power it works in real estate it works at tesla it works in any industry where using technology helps you get ahead of the competition a technology is always evolving so as long as you're kind of staying on that conveyor belt and you're not getting off the belt and then oh crap i can't get back on because your skills have decayed you'll stay with that star power if you're on the ride otherwise if you're using the hammer well again you're next to the conveyor belt and so jerome powell makes a really good point here while we're stuck making smoothies at jabba juice folding clothes at hollister or bussing tables at rob robin by the way all three jobs i had when i had zero money at 16 17 18 and 19.
those were all the jobs i tried to have to try to get ahead i realized aha i don't have the star power when i'm sitting around making smoothies or folding clothes with the hammer doing things manually there's no way i'm gonna make it because everybody else is blowing me out of the water and jerome powell tells us that globalization is just making this more and more true which here's an easy way to think about globalization which is basically just some dude being able to hire some other dude anywhere around the world think fiverr think upwork basically we can now hire other people around the world with hammers anywhere we want because of technology and that keeps wages lower because there are always other people willing to work for a cheaper price than somebody potentially local this is where jay pal says we might see low inflation for years or even decades to come solely because of globalization wages everywhere are basically coming down or staying down because there's so much competition and not only do wages come down but when wages come or stay down prices of things stay down in fact he specifically said if we're at a job and we stop demanding to be paid more money then we don't get paid more money and then producers don't feel the need to raise the price of their goods or services and so overall prices stay low and as a result inflation stays lower and he thinks this is a self-fulfilling cycle we might be seeing low inflation for quite a while to come and so this is where we got to ask ourselves what can we do to be more productive and finally get star power so we can blow everything else out of the water and this is the big ask for us to think about today hint hint restaurants and retail aren't the answer usually the answer for getting star power and actually being able to use technology is getting some kind of skill that actually requires using technology or starting some sort of business for example you could start a 3d scanning business i made an entire video on how you can make 200 bucks in 15 minutes doing a 3d scanning business i'll link that down below you can become a real estate agent a licensed lender a license even a licensed contractor to where even though in licensed contracting your business is about using a hammer you could use technology to do estimates faster to use 3d scans and incorporate them into your services there's so many ways you can use technology as long as in that scenario where you're a licensed contractor you're basically running the show and you're adopting the new technologies heck become an architect or computer engineer and help build the technologies that are enabling people to pick up star power in the first place either way since jay pal thinks many of us will still be stuck with the hammer specifically women and minorities which he says is unfair which totally agree it's unfair he thinks we'll not only see low inflation for potentially the rest of the decade but we'll also continue to see this sort of wealth gap and wealth inequality continue to expand and it makes sense remember the start power they're on that conveyor belt and that conveyor belt keeps getting faster and faster and faster everybody with a hammer is just chugging along but what about markets aren't the markets rigged i mean why is the stock market doing so well when the economy is sucking on this jay powell made a really good point he said we're in a health crisis not a financial crisis banks are lending people can borrow money businesses are functioning the function of money and banking is still working as a result credit markets and the stock market are working and yeah there was a lot of panic in march but once it became clear that we weren't going to have a 2008 style financial crisis the market mostly bounced back and pretty quickly especially for any companies using well the tech star power heck jerome powell even says this last unemployment report was a complete shocker the fact that we got to eight point four percent so quickly for the unemployment rate most people at the federal reserve weren't even expecting us to break ten percent unemployment this year and as a result of the economy kind of rebounding so quickly or at least maybe not the economy but at least the stock market and the appearance of the economy rebounding so quickly more people are starting to invest and ironically this brings up part two of this video the more people invest the more interest rates tend to be and tend to stay low and lower interest rates tend to lead to lower rates of return overall in other words the days of us getting seven to nine percent in the stock market by investing into an s p 500 index fund over the last 30 to 40 years might be gone that's because with more people investing prices are higher and there's less revenue to share amongst everybody but not only that expectations lower for returns and as a result we might see that the next 10 to 20 to 30 years we might see much lower index fund style returns where maybe we might have to start getting used to returns in the neighborhood of three to four percent instead of seven to eight to nine percent with dividends reinvested like we saw in the past after all more and more people investing in the same stocks means higher prices and lower returns which this goes back to lesson number one are we going through life with star power or are we going through life with the hammer and as we go through life we have to keep asking ourselves what can we do to keep getting better and better at the way we invest how can we keep innovating because if we keep doing the same old over and over again we might not see the future returns we're expecting especially as there's more competition so bottom line lesson number one find a job that makes the most productive use of technology that you can get your hands on or get educated to make sure you can take advantage of those technological growths and get on the conveyor belt you gotta be on the belt everybody wants to be on the belt at the airport lesson number two there's a good chance that investing in index funds forever isn't going to be as great as it used to be sure it'll be really diversified but if the entire world is coming to expect lower rates of return we're just not going to see the growth that we saw over the last 30 to 40 years instead we'll have to focus on either ourselves making more money or when it comes to investing we'll have to focus on using technology to help us make more money now that doesn't mean pile into tech stocks at all-time highs and i'm sure i'll have plenty of videos with investing ideas but it definitely makes you wonder in the meantime maybe now is the time to start picking up some wedge deals in real estate buying real estate below market value while we wait for some more answers on how to invest for the next decade how to find real estate below market value where i talk about the money and psychology of stocks and investing for the most money possible in the future and of course where i show you how to make money by making youtube videos folks all these things ar code and folks we'll see you next time you
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