저자: Kevin · 외국인
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주식시장 급등락의 원인으로 헤지펀드 이익실현, 연준 발언, 개인투자자 유입, 대규모 정부 부양금(약 3조 달러), 저금리 재융자 등을 꼽음. 소비재 경기회복주는 부채 부담으로 비중을 5~10%(최대 15%)로 제한하라고 주장. 기술주는 PER이 높지만 실적·성장 기대로 정당화된다는 입장이며 S&P500 PER 약 29.6을 언급. 종목별 매수 목표가를 제시(구글 1600달러 미만, 로켓모기지 2450달러 근처 매수 괜찮음, 테슬라 400달러 미만, 퍼플 19달러 미만, 에트시 100~110달러, 애플 100달러 미만 등).
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hey everyone me kevin here the market holy crap is on an insane roller coaster it is absolutely mind-boggling it's stressful it's anxiety-inducing it makes you feel like well we can't go to a bar so never mind this morning most of us in the market woke up to see yay green jobs report ooh yay by the way i broke that labor report down in my first video today you're welcome to check that out and we're thinking yay stocks open up green for like the first five minutes then the market tanked early morning and only within the last two hours of the day did the market rebound so what the heck what the heck is going on and what can we expect going forward how do we invest in this kind of market how do we make money i mean after all how is somebody mentally supposed to survive the fact that tesla's supposed to go up 70 only within the span of three days to fall 27 percent and then regain seven percent back at the end of the day now being up three percent what how is it supposed to be that zoom goes up 40 in a day and then quickly gives up 25 how does docusign skyrocket 20 but then give back 25 folks this market is irrational dare i say irrationally exuberant but maybe just taking a break now yesterday i described how a lot of this drama is probably profit taking at hedge funds and fear because of the federal reserve's fear-mongering i broke that all down in detail so that might not be a fair representation but what is very important to know is that when hedge funds take profits so that they can report quarterly profits to their clients what happens when a hedge fund takes profits well they have more cash in the bank and what do hedge funds love doing when they got cash they go with shopping again and that's exactly why we might have seen this late day rebound because usually during the midst of this pandemic anytime we have a three-day or even longer period of time where the stock market isn't open people start getting antsy to go shopping again it's like we can't help ourselves but push these stock values right back up so what is this is this sort of rebalancing sustainable well let's break all of this down into three parts and remember this video is sponsored by your ability to totally for free helps you with the madness a little bit link down below t's good to have we're at a pandemic and they're still issuing life insurance think about that all right first this is how we're going to break this down into these three parts so first is this market expensive then we're going to talk about what's happening what's causing all this sort of an update to yesterday's video then what can we expect going forward all right is this market expensive well it depends on what you're looking at let's take a look here and look at some consumer cyclicals we'll look at some of our favorites here for a moment you know consumer cyclicals are like the airlines that retail to disney and all that good stuff right when we look at these stocks all these stocks are obviously still down 30 to 35 percent not anywhere near as low as they used to be when they were around 60 but they're still down 30 to 35 for the year and when we first look at these sorts of companies and stocks we think to ourselves haha i am a value investor these companies used to be worth a whole lot more and now they're not well they're not because well a they're a bankruptcy risk and b they're taking on massive amounts of debt i mean let's look at some of our favorites here disney folks disney took on 11 billion dollars in debt to survive carnival cruise lines took on six billion dollars in debt to survive the airlines well delta airlines is the one with the least debt but it's kind of like picking from the best of the worst delta airlines has so much debt fortunately some of it was given to them via government bailout because i can't let the airlines go under screw all the small businesses in america but the airline's got to be okay and dave and busters even mr busters took on 75 million dollars in new shares that is they sold 75 million dollars in shares at 10 a share just to be able to survive this pandemic and the pandemic is not over yet and so yeah these recovery stocks look cheap and you know jumping into these seems desirable but really all you're doing is picking up somebody else's interest bill probably for the next three to five years kind of want to keep these stocks and no more than five to ten percent of my portfolio maybe fifteen percent if i was feeling generous in wanting to pay somebody else's interest well you know when we compare that to tech we get an entirely different looking market here just look at qqq this tracks the nasdaq 100 which remember nasdaq likes to track healthcare and mostly technology companies you got some telecommunications in there as well but the nasdaq is well let's just look at the chart it's up 31 from the beginning of the year the s p 500 is barely up 5 and the dow jones is down 2 for the year why is the qqq doing so well well because pretty much anything tech right now is absolutely blowing up in fact when we zoom out and we go to the five-year chart it almost feels like it's an exponential curve certainly if we max it out but hey we don't have to do that we don't want to be that offensive to tech it looks pretty good i mean even the fall in march of 2020 you know right when the pandemic struck the bottom of the market march 23rd on the second bottom of the market april 3rd i'll never forget those days but those look like a little hiccup in history compared to what we've seen for realistically the last well five and a half months now and so you know initially we look at these two different graphs and we're like okay well the recovery stocks are super cheap let's go plow into those tech is super over expensive and overvalued let's get out of that in fact this is a very very common chart that people keep pulling up on the youtubes is well price to earnings ratios in the country this basically goes back to 1880 over here but i'll just put my face back over that because well who needs that it's much better look at oh wait no okay maybe maybe we go to blank we don't want to look at me i need to get a stimulus check so we can shave again but anyway look at these levels here i mean we look at probably the average long run price to earnings ratio for the s p is somewhere around 15 15 and a half look at where we are now almost double that at 29.6 how does it make any sense that the s p 500 is trading at a 29 price to earnings ratio that is historically high and in many respects that justifies another pullback in this market in fact maybe even a substantially larger pullback in the market just by looking at that metric but wait a minute for us to actually understand what's happening in this market and whether or not those numbers are actually even slightly reasonable we kind of have to think wait a minute what's going on in the market like why would the nasdaq 100 you know qqq be up like 32 percent when the s p is barely up and the dow is down two percent well it's quite simple the s p is made up of a lot of companies whose earnings have gone in the toilet and the nasdaq is made up of a lot of companies whose earnings have skyrocketed but in addition to that we're still seeing stretched valuations in tech and so where is that extra money coming from well while we don't have all of the data yet we do have some trends forming by march of 2020 we had 52 of americans holding stocks however in may june july and august all brokerages like td ameritrade robin hood schwab m1 finance you name it reported record growths in brokerage account openings with new customers that means we're getting millions upon millions of people who have never invested in stocks before now all of a sudden deciding you know what what kevin's been saying on this channel for years is right though people who invest and control assets get wealthier in this country everybody else gets left behind and screwed you own stocks real estate business you win you don't own those three things you're paycheck to paycheck and you get screwed in this country we get it but what about money well this pandemic's been very interesting our government in conjunction with the federal reserve created three trillion dollars in stimulus money out of thin air think about that for a moment there are 330 million americans if we divide three trillion by about 330 million people that's the equivalent of giving every single living soul in this country nine thousand dollars that means my two-year-old son basically got nine thousand dollars worth of stimulus now how this money gets spread out is obviously well you gotta put in politics which means basically the rich get most of it you know some people got unemployment checks some people got stimulus checks okay people who owned real estate got really big stimulus checks because they were able to take mortgage forbearance at the same time as real estate prices popped up like crazy because mortgage rates got cut so i'm kind of going in order here you know unemployment paid stimulus checks then you go to real estate you know okay you got a nice little boost there then some people got some nice big fat ppp loans from the government that said hey you know what uh don't worry if you have any uncertainty here's a ton of money to cover all your payroll well if my payroll's covered and i can reopen my business because i'm uh essential or at least partially essential then what am i gonna do with all the money i would have normally spent on payroll stocks yes the point is a lot of people got money and used their money yes to survive but my from what we're reading and seeing in the research here you know gatherings here says that a whole lot of people got a whole lot more money than they needed and i'm not saying that's bad i mean if anything i'm partially to blame because i keep telling you all take mortgage for parents it's free freaking money like take the programs that exist okay all right i'm fine blame me but the point is when we have more cash we're like okay what do we do with it we're in a pandemic are we going to go to the shopping mall no how about we just buy some stocks which is actually a very smart idea in general we keep buying in and averaging into the stock market so a lot of this three trillion dollars kind of did end up in the stock market and thanks to the fed tanking interest rates about 1.69 million people 1.69 million people refinanced homes in the second quarter of 2020 alone that's up 50 percent from the first quarter in fact we hit a 10 year record in the amount of loans that were conducted in the second quarter ever in this country over the last 10 years basically since property values rose at the same time as people kind of were looking for more opportunities to get cash and rates fell more people are taking cash out of their properties and guess what let that money go right back into the stock market so the fact is when we consider wait a minute where's all this money coming from when we start looking at the catalysts of this last year compared to other year it's like well there is a whole lot more money in you know a lot of people's hands not everyone you know i don't want to minimize the fact that some people are suffering and that's very true there are a lot of people suffering mostly people without any stocks or real estate but there are also a lot of people getting in in fact take a look at this this is via bloomberg intelligence through the wall street journal we've got that investors individual investors are now making up an approximate 19.5 percent of trading volume in the united states we have barely crossed 15 in prior years these are prior years not prior months every bar is a year look at this last decade people are piling into the stock market more than ever before and this is individual investors not hedge funds aha so now we're starting to pull some more pieces of the puzzle together we got a ton more money individual participation is up people have access to more money through real estate or forbearance programs or whatever let's now start connecting the dots if millions more americans are buying into stocks and millions more americans have money to buy the stocks well that leaves more people fighting for the same amount of profit from these companies remember all a company is and a stock is your right to a share a share of that company's profit that's it well these companies don't have exponential profits i mean i mean some of the newer companies do okay but you know what i mean like they don't have infinite profit and so when more of us have more money to throw at these companies then what happens is the valuations naturally float up so when we look at that s p 500 chart yeah some of that data is skewed because some company's earnings have plummeted certainly like the recovery stocks which many of them are in the s p 500 but when we look at valuations of even tech companies yeah some of those earnings and valuations are floating up because people are willing to pay more money for safer big tech in anticipation that these companies are going to continue to grow and dominate over the next instead of maybe 18 months maybe four or five years in fact there are plenty people like me who say look i know i'm not worried about tesla's price to earnings ratio today i don't care what the earnings ratio is today i know that tesla is going to be able to manufacture and deliver two plus million cars within the next 18 months and when i start basing my valuations off that tesla don't look that expensive i just have to be willing to wait those 18 months or three years or four years until those targets come to fruition or the company just goes bankrupt but the realistic fact is right now here in 2020 most of us look at companies like facebook amazon apple netflix google amd tesla heck throw in zoom and salesforce and i don't think any of us think those companies have more than a one percent chance of going bankrupt so we're all fighting for the same profit and that drives valuations up now i'm not trying to justify this market run up i'm going to give you targets in just a moment but it does start to sound a little reasonable when we take into account that there's some dude at the federal reserve doing this all day long okay like think about it this way if somebody's going burn spitting money everywhere i'm just the dude at the side of field going look at all these dudes everybody's picking up money oh oh some money floated over here i'll take that too oh man everybody's getting some more money oh look they're all going over to their place stocks man it's getting crowded over on that field over there you know we're just trying to zoom out a little bit from what's actually happening i'm not trying to defend the fed i don't think it's good that the fed is you know going nutso over here and they're trying to have us have faith in their fate right their flexible average inflation targeting fate that's how you pronounce it but it's spelled fait anyway yeah uh about that i guess we'll see but in the meantime a lot of us are fleeing to safety in some of these known brands and stocks now some of us invest in hopeful stocks right so we've got the safe stocks then we've got hopeful stocks hopefuls are like okay well what's the next tesla how about nicola neo to the moon sure but you're never going to get that same confidence in those companies as you would and say tesla or microsoft at least not for the next few years and that's why the valuations of like tesla are much higher than maybe a neo or a nikola so we really have three baskets of stocks right now we have the safe stocks the more safe you know pricey tech companies no real bankruptcy risk then we have the hopeful stocks those are companies that have like a 10 to 15 chance of disappearing just kind of like the normal startup culture where like you know one in eight of them disappears every year that kind of thing again think nicola neo and i'm not trying to bag on those companies i think those companies have great potential you know i think both of them are likely to be part of the 80 to 90 survivor group but who knows the point is they're less of a sure thing than the other dudes right i think we can all agree with that and then we have this third basket of stocks called the untouchables or a nicer way to put it these high debt companies have like a 20 to 40 percent chance of going bankrupt if we get another wave of coven like another wave of covid would kind of be like the straw that breaks the camel's back of the recovery stocks this is why i don't go crazy heavy on to them because part of me thinks i'm doing charity by investing in the recovery stocks now i will be fair i do think there is a good chance of some nice growth as long as we could get this virus under control but it's not going to take much to send those companies right back down into the toilet so that brings us to the bottom line is the market frothy and does it seem overpriced well it depends if there's more money in the market and more people investing in the market then maybe we need to start redefining the standards of valuations which is bad i mean i'm not the dude here trying to say ooh apple price to earnings ratio of 19.
now it's 36. what a bargain no not really i actually don't encourage buying apple because i think they're a little frothy right now even more frothy than tesla because tesla's got way more growth in the books than in my opinion apple does and at the same time looking backwards at the charts is probably not the smartest thing to do because we might be falling victim to value traps and this is exactly why 85 percent of my investments are in safer tech stocks the left over 15 are in hopefuls and untouchables and so here are my targets to help us through this madness i'm interested in google under sixteen hundred dollars lemonade that's that's gonna be one of those hopefuls okay that one's that one's got some shared dilution coming i like the company i love the mission little pricey it's a small buy under fifty dollars which both of these companies are under sixty and under fifty dollars don't go heavy on lemonade rocket mortgage it's a buy uh i love it even at 2450 i'm okay based on this last smashing earnings they had and the expectations for low rates over the rest of this decades i think rock or the rest of this decade excuse me i think rocket mortgage is a buy tesla i'm in under 400.
we start crossing 400 which is 2 000 in old school pricing i'm gonna be a little slower on tesla but i'm okay sort of buying in as part of my basket purple for me it's a buy under 19. a lot of y'all didn't like my purple video i tried my best it seems like when i do these stock videos i'm better off lumping a bunch of stocks together fine whatever the balance sheet the numbers for purple the valuation on purple very reasonable but then again it's not a tech company so it's not like you could look at purple and go oh look at that that puny 15 times earnings ratio it's a pillow company and a mattress company right so it is what it is dave and busters uh this is really only a nibble in my opinion until we see earnings next week earnings come out on tuesday which is when the market opens again i'm pretty sure it's after hours so you know by wednesday morning maybe we could go shopping for dave and busters here's what we're looking for folks dave and busters needs to take a main street loan if dave and busters takes a main street loan from the federal reserve it is a huge buying signal because they're basically screaming to the world we ain't going bankrupt uh etsy decent decent at 115 110 really love it under a hundred i kind of hope the downtrend continues a bit it's a great competitor against amazon think about it amazon's your daily goods ebay's your glorified craigslist etsy is the small business that just went bankrupt on main street think about it it's an opportunity apple got to be under 100 for me no i know apple's above that right now so can't really buy apple i think we're much better off honestly i'd rather buy tesla where it is now at 4 15.
pay a tiny little bit of a premium like a three percent premium over my buy target that's okay with me so some of these again are targets you can execute on now remember if you lose money it's your fault not mine because i recommend you buy it and then wait uh it's kind of like uh you know if you buy one of these things and then it goes goes red a little bit because that's usually what happens when i recommend something uh well oh well but over the long run they tend to do nicely again no guarantees all you can do is knock on wood buy life insurance and get a free stock uh entire compilation of basically what the heck is going on in the marketplace according to some dude on youtube whom obviously you should value probably very little i'm just some dude who got luck
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