저자: Kevin · 외국인
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증시 하락의 원인으로 연준의 경고와 실업·임대차 위기, 2020년 대선 전후 세금 인상 불확실성, 의회 부양책 교착과 헤지펀드 차익실현을 꼽음. 기술주 밸류에이션이 여전히 높으니 소액 분할매수와 리커버리 종목 분산, 마진 부채 주의를 권고함.
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hey everyone meet kevin here why the heck is the market falling and what should we do about it it's nuts it's scary and in my opinion there are three catalysts for this and three things that we should do let's just take a look here for a moment rocking mortgage down 15 end phase the solar inverter company twelve percent ubiquity eleven percent zoom video bye-bye forty percent increase you got minus ten percent two days in a row docusign bye bye twenty percent increase you get down eight percent and then down another ten percent tesla how's nine and a half percent for you peloton enjoy your 90 oh wait you're already down 10 off 90 again lemonade you've been beat to crap for the last five weeks how about another 8 down you know apple thought it was cool we could buy that on sale yeah seven and a half percent for you redfin don't worry you get some too minus seven percent minus seven percent etsy shopify is down microsoft's down salesforce is down everything is on freaking fire and not in a good way it is sucking and so what the heck is happening well first quick note the coupon code for the amazing courses i did extend for a couple days it does expire later today so if you do want to get in i had to wrap up some bundle coupons and you can still do that use that coupon code for the real estate course the money course the stock course or any of the programs down below check those out all right let's now talk about the three issues because well their problems number one the federal reserve jobs and renters on tuesday the federal reserve released a statement warning of a downward spiral of inflation and the risks that low inflation has in potentially causing a worse future recession on wednesday the very next day yesterday the federal reserve released their beige book telling us how other than real estate and most of the stock market the entire economy is suffering badly we also heard from the federal reserve that more people are taking unemployment because schools are not properly reopening and parents are forced to stay home reducing their productivity because child care isn't available and more and more pain is being felt in the economy because of that at the same time people are spending less money than obviously pre-pandemic this is all very bad news for this week and it's just the beginning because today we got more unemployment data that said hey we just lost another 885 000 jobs for regular unemployment claims but it wasn't just those unemployment figures it was the fact that people who are self-employed had a higher rate of unemployment this week than last week so things for people who are self-employed got worse with another over 700 000 unemployment filings for them alone and that's a separate filing that's really bad tomorrow we get new unemployment data which we're expecting to finally fall under 10 percent yay under 10 unemployment but wait it's still gonna be over nine percent which is almost three times what it was right before the pandemic it's pretty high somewhere around 30 million people on unemployment this is not a great economy and the federal reserve is just telling us what the truth is they're not reading the stock market to tell us how great everything is now the federal reserve is also backstopping the mortgage market and you know the fed says after all the bright spot is real estate maybe because they're bailing it out but the fed also warns us that hey keep in mind we still have a potential eviction crisis to be careful of sure the cdc just banned evictions through the rest of the year but tenants already owe 21 billion dollars in back rent from this pandemic who's gonna pay for that we got thousands of landlords and thousands of tenants here suffering getting screwed and no one believes congress is actually going to do anything about this eviction crisis which especially once mortgage forbearance comes to an end and the evictions start getting filed and they come through these are all longer term issues and that's just catalyst number one spooking the market right now issue number two and this is not to take political sides this just is what it is we are 60 days away from a potential democratic presidency or at least knowing that we're going to have a democrat president it's also quite possible that we are 60 days away from a full democratic sweep that's where they now i'm not here again to talk politics but i will tell you what the market fears the market fears full democratic control at least in part because we already know that biden has gone on record to say he wants to increase the corporate tax rate from 21 to 28 that instantly reduces earnings per share at every single corporation in america and that will be felt in the stock market his vice presidential pick kamala harris wants to see the corporate tax rate not go to 28 she wants to see it go higher to 35 percent which would hurt stocks even more now realistically for them to get this through they would actually have to sweep the house the senate and the presidency which obviously we'll know in 60 days from now if they are successful in sweeping all these things but if democrats do end up sweeping which is a possibility then not only are we likely to see the corporate tax rate go up which would affect stock valuations we're also likely to see a financial transactions tax on stock transactions and bonds and dividends and options think about this kind of like paying a commission on stocks and options again except this time you're paying it to the government not to your broker then we're also likely to see a potential capital gains tax increase making it more expensive to sell stocks or to invest on top of that were potentially likely to see real estate tax loopholes get closed like the 1031 exchange donald trump on the other hand has proposed reducing the corporate tax rate to 15 percent all of these things are creating a lot of uncertainty in the market the fad already tells us like every day the market's really uncertain and really volatile this is just more we are now within 60 days of knowing an answer okay which direction are we going with taxation now again this doesn't mean i have an opinion on what's going to happen with the election but what this does mean is there are going to be big changes related to finances in the stock market based on the outcome of this election and whether or not there is a sweep or not now if you want a full breakdown of how much you might get taxed under biden versus trump check out a video that i made recently i'll link it above or down below again not politically motivated it just shows you what each side has proposed that's it now the other factor that might also be getting priced into the market a little bit right now sort of part of this election thing is no matter how the election turns out we're probably going to see riots and protests worse than what we're seeing now think about it you think the riots and protests are bad now imagine what happens on the night of the election and the next day and that weekend yeah number three the stimulus failures and hedge fund profit taking congress straight up sucks okay we know that i don't have to talk long about that we know that republicans are having trouble agreeing to a 500 to 700 billion stimulus package democrats are demanding a 2.2 trillion dollar bill donald trump is willing to sign something up to 1.3 a trillion dollars and maybe even up to two trillion dollars we know that donald trump wants stimulus because stimulus is going to be correlated with the stock market going up which might create more euphoria right before the election all right but either way right now we're at a massive stalemate and here's what happens when congress is at a stalemate the federal reserve is a little pissy and we're 60 days away from an election people especially hedge funds and mutual funds have to show their clients that they're making money for them and so what do hedge funds and mutual funds do they take profits real fast they love locking in profits see me as an individual investor i hate taking profits because when i take profits i have to pay taxes so does a hedge fund and mutual fund but not really because see when a hedge fund or mutual fund sells shares to lock in profits they get to send their client a statement like here you go client here's your statement oh cool i made money honey we picked a good mutual fund we made money this quarter oh we got to pay taxes no problem we made money though right right fine i get all the povs but the point is when mutual funds and hedge funds don't sell to take profits then they can't show big gains to their clients and their clients might go to a different mutual fund or hedge fund that's why there's so much profit taking and so all it takes is a little needle like tesla's gonna raise five billion dollars in shares and that's going to reduce their stock price one percent which will start the end of euphoria and the collapsing of tech values yeah that sounds like the perfect needle to pop the bubble and that means everybody's taking profits and after all that's what wall street loves doing they take profits to pay taxes not because they love paying taxes but because they love showing their clients that they're making them money that's why we always hear about wall street going oh yo take profits it's an industry norm it's not something i do because i don't like paying taxes look people always tell me to take profits when tesla was 400 before the stock split when it went up from 185 to 400 i got comments and calls and emails from people all the time kevin take profits take profits take profits the same thing happened when tesla was at 900 per share kevin it's a 900 it's a bubble it's gonna pop sure enough it went down afterwards but where is it now two thousand dollars even after the fact that it's down ten percent today that's pre-stock split pricing right divide by five to get today's pricing the reality is i don't care to pay taxes because i don't want to give the government short-term capital gains and pay 35 to 50 of my money i'd rather keep it and ride the waves of the market and take these opportunities to buy in i don't have to prove to myself that i'm a good investor i have control i'm not a hedge fund anyway keep this in mind all of these things that we just talked about the federal reserve fans panic with economic data and problems the election is 60 days away that's going to really rock the boat one way or the other again no matter who wins we're gonna have protests and riots and no matter who wins they're gonna be some big changes to the stock market probably it depends if we get the congress sweep as well and people like taking profits in this country that's kind of what we're seeing today one of the parts so what should we do because after all i mean some of the stocks are still a little juicy i mean let's be real here look we started this by complaining that all these things were down but let's be real a week ago rocket mortgage was at like 18 a share it's way up from there uh not that long ago like one to two weeks ago peloton was at 65 to 69 per share aka even though it's down 10 today it's still at 81 the same is true for tesla a couple weeks ago it was at 18 1900 now it's at dollars per share uh you know pre-split pricing that's more in my memory these stocks are still relatively expensive just compared to like two or three weeks ago when they were much cheaper it's insane all right so what should we do number one look for opportunities within realistic buying targets and don't blow all of your money that means yes it's okay to buy a little bit at a time if you have ten thousand dollars buy five hundred dollars on a day like today if there's another red day tomorrow buy another 500 worth tomorrow buy a little bit every day so that way you're psychologically participating in these red days and you're averaging in now again even though some of these stocks are down big today it doesn't mean that they're going to go up again tomorrow they could go down again tomorrow if they go up at least you bottle a little bit if they go down more buy more so keep in mind yeah it's totally possible we might see more of a decline that this could be the start of more of a downtrend usually we see these sort of trade-offs between recovery stocks and these tech stocks for about three days if that started yesterday today would be day two friday means we're probably going to see another red day for friday in my opinion if you see opportunities right now buy in light i wouldn't go crazy buying in right now because again the valuations are still very very high in fact my favorite way to buy in a day like today is to buy a group of 30 to 40 of your favorite stocks it doesn't have to be like the s p 500 it doesn't have to be that terribly diversified where you're getting more tobacco stocks than you're getting starbucks i personally like to use metkevin.com 1337v7 yes i just updated it to version 7.
i'll link that down below this is m1 finance so if you want to sign up and use m1 finance you can go to that link and you can create an account and they'll actually give you 20 if you deposit 100 with m1 finance to sign up for an account but anyway you don't have to i just want you to be able to go to the link and at least see what the stocks are i don't get paid anything for you just looking at the link so think of it like free free information and free stock holdings i updated this portfolio to version 7 because i reintroduced zoom after i just had i mean a smashed earnings but then also was now 20 cheaper after its earnings i also decreased exposure to tesla and amazon slightly and instead increased exposure for a little bit more stability in stocks like google and microsoft just to stabilize the portfolio a little bit especially post split now step number two once once you pick you know getting into some of these opportunities a little bit and softly and slowly step number two consider diversifying a little bit with a balance of recovery stocks so even though 1337 in my opinion has some decent diversity it's very tech heavy so i'd consider having some money also in recovery stocks in my opinion don't pick these individually don't go yolo on dave and bustas and the spg get like at least five to ten recovery stocks carnival cruise lines delta dave and buster simon whatever get at least five to ten of these i personally like using the basket at metkevin.com recovery that's the same thing you can kind of see my allocations there that's doing well today compared to the tech stacks not doing so great so on a day like today i wouldn't necessarily be buying more of those recovery stocks i'd be buying more of the other ones but i do like having some of the recovery stocks right now so if you don't own any yet fine get in a little bit and again we'll know later today we'll know tomorrow how the next days look for right now all we have to do is look at the opportunities in front of us and that might mean hey let's buy a little bit on rent but don't go all in as usual step number three big big big warning folks the fed has been warning about this everybody's warning about this be careful debt debt warning be very very careful about margin debt right now we need to be consistent in realizing that it's very possible we could see pullbacks like this all the way up through the election which means it's much more likely that we could start experiencing margin calls especially if you're not diversified enough this is why i like not going all in on one stock and even though i love tesla and i'm pretty heavy on tesla i make sure that i continue to invest in a lot of other funds or pies so to speak on m1 finance to really diversify my money away from just one stock's volatility especially if you're touching margin i've also paid off my weeble margin and i'm paying off my robinhood margin because it's too risky and then i'll start working off my m1 finance margin which is a little less risky because they don't let you take out as much so i love you all good luck my friends use that coupon code feel free to get a free stock with weeble as well if you want if you deposit a hundred dollars with weeble they'll give you one totally free stock between eight dollars and a hundred dollars it's a nice little start you can sell everything if you want and take your money out of there if you want afterwards but i think you'll like weeble it's nice to have stay away from the margin on weeble is generally my recommendation feel free to sign up for m1 finance it's okay to have multiple brokerages i do and be careful with the debt realize also we've got fed volatility election volatility and just an overall profit-taking market right now that's my expectation as to what's going in or what's going on rather buy and slowly and carefully use that coupon code check out the programs down below and folks see you next time
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