저자: Kevin · 외국인
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연준 베이지북(2020.9.2)은 경제활동이 팬데믹 이전 수준에 못 미치고 고용·수요가 약하며 불확실성이 크다고 전함. 저인플레이션·저금리 장기화를 전망하며 '검소한 10년(frugal decade)'을 예상. 부채 관리가 중요하고 소득 증대에 집중하라고 조언. 레버리지 투자(로빈후드 마진 등)에 경고하고 부동산 부채비율 35%·주식 부채 35% 수준을 제시. 특정 종목 방향에 대한 구체 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
hey everyone meet kevin here it seems these days we just can't get enough of today on september 2nd released their beige book and it's pretty dark beige this time that is there's not a lot of light in it i read the entire report and in this video i'm going to give you some quick takeaways from it and bottom lines related to this release remember the beige book represents economic trends and conditions as of august 2020 and again they just released that today on september 2nd quick note this video is sponsored by life insurance that it's what lauren and i have and remember you can so they will t's kind of like you roll the dice you may as well give it a try all right first let's touch on what happened yesterday i'm just going to give you a quick little recap so that way you can see how this integrates together yesterday the fed said they were concerned that we may face a downward spiral where inflation stays low and basically we get drunk fat and happy off debt which once somebody comes and takes the cheap beer away aka the cheap money away everybody's going to be not drunk fat and unhappy which is not good this morning fed president barkin of the bank of virginia said that the economy needs continued support and he is also concerned that we're taking on a ton of debt this also comes at the same time as the us government is also now on track to have a higher percentage of debt to gdp than it had during world war ii or at least a debt level that high which is the first time we've had such a high level of debt in well since world war ii now all of these data points aren't too exciting and the beige book doesn't help that much let's pull up the beige book and take a look so i'm going to read some of the highlights here not all of them basically we saw some consumer spending tick up in august although everything including tourism vehicle sales consumer spending everything is far below pre-pandemic levels commercial construction was down in pretty much all districts and even though real estate was a bright spot we saw higher real estate sales in area we saw growth and resilience resilience that is in real estate throughout the country most parts of the country overall in all districts we continue to see uncertainty and volatility as well as the pandemic's negative effects on consumerism and business activity this basically means people are saving more money people are spending less because we're uncertain we don't know what's going to happen next we don't know if there's going to be a big second wave this fall with the flu season we don't know if there's going to be another big double dip stock market crash we don't know if when this eviction ban ends december 31st if we need to be prepared for a foreclosure crisis next year all of this is creating a lot of fear and uncertainty and in some regards it's good in some regards i would rather be fearful now than be blindsided later so in some respects it's good for us to be aware of what's going on out there not everything is rosy like when we look at the stock market it's like oh yeah everything's great we look at real estate like oh everything's great can't get hurt we got to be careful it's times like this where things are skyrocketing that we do want to be a little bit more careful let's read a few more highlights here because they give us some hints here look at this this was really interesting firms continue to experience difficulty finding necessary labor a matter compounded by daycare availability aka the lack of daycare availability look at this one as well as uncertainty over the coming school year and jobless benefits folks what are they telling us here they're telling us that look people don't know what to do with their children right now so rather than put themselves on the job market in some cases and quite frankly possibly a lot of cases it makes more sense for one person in a household to just say that's it i'll just take unemployment i'll stay at home and try to help homeschool the children because right now it's hard lauren's homeschooling our little boys well actually technically we're paying for private school which is crazy because we thought they were going to give us like really easy online virtual luring learning and lauren's spending like three to four hours a day just trying to teach our five-year-old how to draw the letter s correctly so we could write i see a bear yeah well i see a bear market like it sucks and so i i get it like it's very very difficult for people to say yeah let me go back to work who's gonna watch the kids you can't send your kids to all preschools they're not all open yet a lot of them are still shut down and somebody's got to teach them for their zoom learnings and zoom meetings sounded good in theory but they're really difficult in practice okay at least for schooling anyway continuing on with this report which keep in mind that's going to keep hurting us with employment data this friday we're expecting to get another employment data release and i'm not expecting it to be good i think it's going to be worse than we're expecting uh we'll see you know the market never ceases to surprise me so you never know but anyway prices input prices are rising faster than selling prices aka we're not seeing inflation in terms of what companies can sell things for but we are seeing supply chain issues push prices up this is why you see food prices go up because of disrupted fl supply chain chains not because there's somehow more demand and companies can make more money in fact the opposite is happening a lot of districts are reporting that demand is overall weak there's a lack of pricing power and overall we're seeing everything suggest get ready for lower inflation times which again lower inflation time lower interest rate times but be careful we don't get too too uh drunk off the punch bowl so to speak aka off all this cheap debt boston area housing market was strong but a lot of firms were permanently laying off people lots of layoffs happening right now and the businesses who want employees again are having a hard time finding employees because of the children issue real estate doing okay but new york says the regional economy has stalled in recent weeks that's from august from august new york's district is saying we have stalled philadelphia says business activity is flat firms continue to face hiring difficulties uncertainty is extremely high as contacts await layoffs evictions foreclosures bankruptcies while the coronavirus continues and stimulus ends cleveland activity remained below pre-pandemic levels richmond auto sales and existing home sales are up uh however the pace of hiring slowed same thing every district so far tourism obviously soft mixed mixed economic data residential real estate conditions improved everything else mix chicago area and they're 12 region regions ah kevin hello where's english today chicago area economic activity increased strongly but the pace slowed and remained below pre-pandemic levels let's go on up here to st louis economic activity has increased modestly notice when it's positive it's modest or slightly or mixed and when it's negative it's extremely bad cautious right some improvement see look at this some improvements of consumer spending while many servative service firms reported declines so you're seeing a little bit of positive a lot of negative but real estate is showing resilience again that was sort of the average throughout the country that we're seeing that real estate is really just the the shining light throughout this entire pandemic but if you own real estate be careful that we don't get over confident in the way that we're investing and hopefully we're not overtaking too much debt more than we could bear more than our our incomes would allow us to take on uh and uh potentially getting us a little bit too exposed if there's a future downturn uh yeah dallas same thing housing area was positive otherwise everything else is increasingly uncertain disrupted business sentiment conditions in the consumer and business services sector remained precarious in the san francisco area precarious these are bad very bad things yet at the same time look lending activity picked up further folks how do we put the pieces of all of this together what the heck is happening what's the theme the theme is simple here job losses continue to happen layoffs are becoming permanent jobless claims and that's why we might see an increase in the unemployment data before we see it go down again we'll see on friday but so far the initial payroll data that we got today on wednesday was that we're going to have a worse number than we're expecting and again a lot of this makes sense because of children driving parents home it's frustrating what else is a theme low inflation here to stay low rates probably here to stay uncertainty in businesses and households is going to mean in my opinion i'm seeing this every day more and more this will be the frugal decade we had the roaring 20s 100 years ago this is going to be the frugal decades my take i think everybody's going to try to do whatever they can to save more money hopefully that also means invest more without taking on too much more debt and remember if some inflation is good if you take on debt like if we had two percent inflation three percent inflation it makes more sense to get a mortgage and take on debt against your stocks because as inflation happens it's easier to pay that off because you make more money at your job or selling your goods and services whereas your debt stays at the same level well you know unfortunately when there's no inflation debt you took out five years ago is still kind of worth what it is today it's nice if you take on ten thousand dollars of debt you're making 50 grand a year and then all of a sudden five years later you're making 70 grand it's a lot easier to pay off that debt from five years ago right but we're just not seeing that inflation right now uh and remember this also doesn't apply to like credit card debt because basically credit card debt destroys you you don't have an asset that's linked to that if you own stocks or real estate or businesses those tend to float up with inflation whereas your debt stays stable so that's where inflation is beneficial but we could really do a whole video on just inflation some debt is good when there is some inflation just be careful right now in this era of cheap money we could be setting ourselves up for some big risks in the future so be careful taking on too much debt and remember jobs are weak business demand is weak and the ability to raise prices at businesses is also weak so what do we do what do we do now well you know should we just go out and yellow it on tesla options because come on we all knew it was going to fall so we could yolo some put options and it's probably going to go to the moon again right so yolo some calls well here are my rules number one do whatever you can to minimize speculating and the one way you could do that very easily is focus on your income first figure out what you can do to bump your income we can't rely on the government we can't rely on the fed we can't rely on the stock market we have to focus on our income let the stocks do what they want let real estate do what they want put your investment in you know try to make educated decisions but focus on your income and you being able to bring in more money yourself than you spend and that brings us to number two stay lean in order to make sure you keep bringing in more money than you spend you got to make sure you're not like up to here in debt because then things uh get very difficult when we start drowning in debt rule of thumb i like to keep real estate and no more than 35 debt 65 equity so the way that works is you write down on a piece of paper or a spreadsheet probably ideally a spreadsheet what the properties are that you own if you just own one property write it down and then write down what your debt is you know if you've got more than 90 debt oh maybe you got to think about getting a better deal next time or maybe you want to pay that off a little bit or maybe you don't want to do a cash out refinance and fully max out your equity in your house right i like to stay around 35 equity in real estate stocks i do the opposite i like to stay at about 65 equity or 35 debt so be careful of that weeble and that robin hood where they let you go to 100 margin it's scary see today it's so easy to load up on debt you can literally swipe up on robinhood boom you can unlock 100 debt well it's very easy to get screwed on a double dip recession if you're loaded up that much in debt it's harder to get screwed if you have less debt or no debt against your stocks and uh you know this is this is just my warning for everyone keep an eye on your debt when the tights turn you don't want to be the one out there swimming naked as they say focus on your income keep investing and here's a really important one as well if you missed out on some stock going parabolic maybe you missed out on tesla maybe you missed out on some other stock that's doing the run-up try to remember this here's what i do don't somo and if you're going to somo write down your somo so somo is sadness of having missed out right sadness of missing out uh it's kind of like the fear of missing out makes you do irrational things but then if you don't do it sometimes then you have somo because you're like i should have done something right write that somo on a piece of paper open up a drawer drop that paper into the drawer close the drawer and never think about it again you can only make decisions going forward you can't make decisions going backwards don't work that way so don't don't let it uh you know hold you down or make you feel bad focus on going forward and stay frosty out there as they say in the military stay frosty so thanks so much and folks i wi
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