저자: Paul · 외국인
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Paul은 캐시 우드(ARK)가 매수한 텔라닥(TDOC)을 두고 캐시 우드 자체를 신뢰하지 않으며, 장기간 적자와 현금흐름 악화를 근거로 텔라닥 투자를 비판하는 입장이다. 텔라닥은 주가가 2021년 2월 약 295달러에서 최근 약 75달러로 약 75% 하락했고, 연간 매출 약 18.6억 달러 대비 순손실 약 8억 달러로 장기 적자 구조라고 지적한다. 캐시 우드는 2021년 11월경 약 41.5만 주를 추가 매수했으나 이후 주가가 약 50% 더 하락했다는 점이 언급된다. 진행자는 성장성만 보고 투자하는 방식(인텔·MS 사례 인용)은 과대평가 리스크가 크다고 주장하며, 성장주 버블 사례로 학자금·부동산 버블을 예로 든다. 초보 투자자에게는 장기 ETF 투자를 기본으로 권하고, 단기 트레이딩에는 차트 기반 방식을 소개한다. 마지막에는 유료 소프트웨어(EverythingMoney, 하루 1달러) 및 채팅방 홍보가 이어진다. 텔라닥에 대한 명시적 가격 방향 예측은 '75달러 위로 못 갈 것'이라는 발언 정도로, 단기·중기 방향은 하락 쪽에 가깝다.
다듬은 글
Hey, welcome back to Everything Money. I'm here with Paul and Mo. We are glad to welcome you. Today we are talking about Teldoc Health. Field, this is the T Do symbol. You know, I think it's off people's radar. We get a lot of inquiries about this, and I didn't know. This is Katie Wood and the second largest stake in ARK, led by Tesla.
She probably believes this deeply. Hmm, these stocks were recently priced at almost $300, and they are much lower now. We would like to review the financial performance of this company, Paul. This is not a new company. We'll look at the financials using our Everything Money software, show you the numbers, and you'll get Paul's opinion on whether he would invest in a company like Teldoc.
Paul , what do you think, first of all, about Katie Wood? So, I'm biased against Katie Wood. I've been saying she's an idiot for quite some time now. Uh, Jim Cramer, as we saw in the video recently, said a year ago that she was a genius, and now he's saying something that I don't know exactly, but he's like criticizing her.
I just don't like her process. I think this is stupid. This is inconsistent and stupid. So honestly, if she buys anything, I would probably just sell shorts on everything she touches because she's an idiot. Actually, I'll say something. She...Yes, come on. To at least sweeten it, Paul. Come on, Mo. And...Paul, you're right .
You would, uh, sell shorts on everything she touches. There is actually a fund. What was that? SK. Yes, they sold shorts on everything she touches, and they're really good at it. And again, this is a short-term perspective. I mean, it's growing today, and nothing ever falls down at once. So I'm sure she'll be like, if the price goes back to 100, 120, she'll say, "See, I was right." And then she'll say, "Okay, that sounds good." And it's just, you know, if she says that, all the more reason, like right now, I don't believe this is the end of the ARC.
I don't believe it will ever rise above $73. No, these things just take time. All I know is that at some point she will blame the market for not doing very well. And I'll just sit there and say it's not about the market, it's about the fact that you have terrible investments and a terrible process. You have no process.
So as far as Katie with Katie Wood, I think her investments will ultimately be very bad for a long time, but it will take time for them to show up, and she will blame something , as I said before. But anyway, do you want to, do you want to, um, take a look at this? Yes. Before we get to that, friends, what we are trying to do with our channel is to become a lifeline for you, the new investors.
A constant reminder that you don't necessarily have to invest in some of these companies if you see them on YouTube, and especially if you see how great their growth model is. We will show you what is under the hood of this company, the finances, using our software so that you can gain a deeper understanding of how to view the company using our eight pillar method.
Paul, let's tell us about it right now. Good. So, this is, um, software for everything related to money. More on that a little later. Let's take a look at Tok. So guys, we went through the whole eight pillars process before. Now we move straight to the eight pillars. And I want you to see my train of thought when I see the eight pillars.
If you want more information, a detailed explanation of the eight pillars, at the very end of the video Seth will tell you where you can find that video on our channel. So, eight pillars, oh my God, the only thing they have positive feedback on is revenue growth over the last five years. Everything else is bad.
Does that in itself mean it's bad? No. But look at this income statement . This thing hasn't made money since time immemorial. Never. Steeply. Cash flow . This thing has earned one, two, two years of free cash flow over the last 10 years. Steeply. The last eight. Perfectly. Eight pillars. I mean, I don't even know what to say.
Like , for me, it immediately means that I hate appearing biased. If Katie Wood likes it and it looks that bad, I just avoid it immediately. I know this sounds awful , but I have no respect for her, her company, or her process. I think if "Meeting Kevin" promoted Kevin, or Stoke Mo promoted this thing, because it's absolute madness.
By the way, I don't know, and I want to point out one thing, guys, that these stocks could still go up again. My process is designed for the long term, and for many stocks in general, there will be abnormal rates that they can withstand, and suddenly Taddock will find some way out and say, "See, I told you so." No, there is no " slightly worse", I said, because you don't see that the other 98 times it didn't work.
And that's the main key here - it's incredible to see such revenue growth and such losses in net profit. I mean, they just keep growing and growing. Last year, they earned $1.86 billion in revenue and lost $811,812 million. And look at the price last year, in Missouri, on February 8, 2021, it hit 295.
The 52-week high is 308. 308. Now it's 75. That's a 75% drop. This is incredible. Last year, in November, in mid- November, Paul Katie bought another 415,000 shares. So she really believed she was buying what she thought was a fall. Since then, its shares have fallen by 50%. Um, if I'm a newbie...Come on, Bo ...Come on.
Sorry. Oh, I just wanted to say, if I'm a new investor, and there's probably some videos on the other side about how great this company is going to be...Um, you know, and I just heard how great Katie Wood is... Can you describe an alternative to these two investing styles? Or just watch a YouTube video telling you what a great company it is and probably hope and pray that everything works out.
I mean, share your thoughts, Paul. I recently read an article that said that Katie Wood, an average investor in ARC, lost 40%. Although the fund has grown significantly over the past five years. Why? Because the vast majority of investors came last year because she had an incredible year. So, she has to top up her accounts when people buy her ETFs.
It has to be replenished with shares in ETFs. This causes a surge that doesn't happen suddenly. Causes a fall. Now, is it easy to think that this company is growing, so of course it will do well. Of course. Then I'll sit down and show you this example. Intel X diagram in 2000. Intel shares were worth $75.
Since then, 22 years later, she has never crossed that path again. So you sit there and say, well , she probably didn't grow up. Okay, in 2000, Intel had revenue of $33 billion. Last year, it generated revenue of $80 billion. So, if I told you that in 2000 the stock was worth $75 and its revenue would more than double over the next 22 years, would you tell me the stock would go up or down?
It should be much higher than $80. Oh, Paul, if it more than doubles, then the stock will more than double. Okay, cool. The shares haven't gone anywhere. And this is n't just about Intel, it's Cisco. This is Microsoft when comparing revenue to revenue and price to price. Microsoft crossed that mark in 2000, but if you compare the 2000 peak to the subsequent $50 price hit, let's look at that, because that's something we do n't really do very often.
Look at Microsoft, a company that has advanced much further than it was in 2000. In 2000, the share price reached $59. The next time the stock price hits $59, keep going. 16. 2016. Yes. And what did she do? In 2016, it received 95 billion in revenue. In 2000, it received 23 billion in revenue. Wow. See what I'm talking about?
24 billion versus 95 billion. Four times more. And the shares were absolutely unchanged. Why? Because if you overpay, you will have problems. Now Microsoft has made up for it by doubling its revenue since then . But you know what? Microsoft is currently overvalued at 304. Of course, I hear people saying, "No, it's not." Well, that's great, because in 2012, when I bought it, everyone said I was a fool for buying it with 73 billion in revenue.
Pole, this is a dead company. When I saw this, I just saw revenue growth, revenue, growth, revenue, growth. How can this be a dead company? So, the fundamental principles work in the long run. Public opinion works. This works in the short term. Verka in the short term. That's all it is . Name any stock.
What was that? Was it German? Yes. Yes. I think it was my own little, uh, what was her name? How would it be a combination of German and English? Genlish. Jerklish. I mean, Paul, I always feel so sorry for people who get cheated . You know, actually, I've argued with you sometimes because there are people who defend these companies, and you call them fools.
I, you know, as a new investor, protect the company as much as I can. Don't defend the stock price. I literally parked here today and ordered a Long John's for a trip to Switzerland on Amazon, and I'm not going to touch the Amazon price of 3000. Long John. I think the point is, you know, I think the point is , uh, this exchange of information that's happening on YouTube right now, it's very easy to find videos that are very convincing to people who are passionate about companies, and they're actually saying that they're doing fundamental analysis, uh, to broaden their perspective, why the word " fundamental" is such a broad, widely used term, anything can be considered fundamental to some people, you know, yeah, you.
Just like Tiger Woods, just like Tiger Woods once sat around and said that he and his wife were a boring couple. They never met. Meanwhile, he [ __ ] 8,000 women. Listen, I don't care what you say. Just because you sit and look at the prospect of future growth doesn't mean you're considering fundamental analysis.
If you don't model it to say, "What does this mean?" Am I overpaying for this growth? If you don't know what overpayment for growth is, then do yourself a favor and put your money in ETFs and never touch them. You will do your money the best service in the world by never touching it because you don't understand that you can overpay for a good thing.
There is such a thing as too much of a good thing. When you pay too much for a good thing, it no longer becomes good. As Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger always say, all bubbles start on very smart and intelligent grounds. Education is important. Great, we have a student loan bubble. Home ownership is important.
Perfectly. We had a real estate bubble. Growth is important. Perfectly. Then you have the hype around growth. I am a bubble of excitement. You have all these bubbles that are popping. It's always based on something fundamental that's happening. And you know what? Having technology back in 2000 was a great idea.
The Internet is the next big thing, and it's very rational. And they didn't even realize how big the Internet would become. And they were still boys, the internet is bigger today than we thought in 2000. And yet there are companies that have gone to nothing, most companies have disappeared to nothing.
And those that survive, most of them are being sold at a lower price than they were 22 years ago. And those that sell above had to do everything possible to do everything possible above any wildest expectations. If someone tries to tell me that everyone thought Apple was dead in 2000. If someone tries to tell me that they thought Amazon would be what it is today in the year 2000, you are absolutely lying to yourself.
I remember in 2000, um, my roommate had an Apple computer, and it was almost pointless. It was pointless to have him, he was like that stupid guy with the Apple computer. Uh, I just always remember him carrying it around with him because I remember he had a pen, and they were different colors, and he was the only fool with Apple.
So, um, I guess, Paul, for new investors, what's the alternative if you're not diving into something like this ? I mean, you said just buy ETFs. This is probably the safest game, right? The safest bet is always to buy long-term ETFs. Learn the method like Mo for day trading. If you really want to be active, Mo has a great way with his day trading, swing trading SW to get in on the action where fundamentals don't matter.
Fundamental indicators are irrelevant in day trading. When it comes to charts and stochastics, it doesn't matter. I don't care what the asset is. I like it when people try to combine day trading with fundamental indicators. Why? Why? Why? I don't understand. There are people who do this. This new book, " Masters of Finance," that I have, all these guys are doing it.
I don't understand, but they do it, and they do it well, but they have a process for it. In my opinion, keep them separate. Don't do this separately. But keep your money in ETFs. If you want to learn fundamental value investing, you must be willing to be wrong or be perceived as such. You must be the exception.
You should be the one that everyone looks at and says, " Look at this idiot who buys a cash-flowing business that doesn't have much growth potential." OK. Regarding Facebook, we hear Tim just say that Europe will shut down Facebook and Instagram. I mean, is that possible? Of course. I just find it hard to believe that Facebook would do this.
They would probably agree to the request before allowing this to happen. If they really thought Europe would shut them down, they would say, "And you know what?" Every European who wants to shut them down has a Facebook and Instagram account. Yes. OK. Mo, do you want to show us the graphs on Teldoc?
You can make money if you trade this every day, every week. Mo can show you how. Come on, Mosf. So guys, here's my long-term schedule, and here's my daily schedule. I wouldn't even look at it from a long-term perspective. Just move it here to your daily schedule. You'll get a little more detail, and just because this thing is so volatile, trade it when you can.
When you have a downtrend that is a couple of days short, buy short positions. And ultimately, even now, it's very difficult because you're dealing with these basic moving averages. What I would prefer you to do is, as Paul said, um, switch to a day trading schedule, and you will definitely be able to do very well with that because these are stocks with high intraday volatility .
This is one of those hyped promotions that, um, Katie Wood always talks about, and you can just find a good trend every day, even today. I mean, when you hear it, you have it. You had a stable good green volume. You had an absorbing candle here. You have exceeded 80% and you could make a move to the top.
Yesterday afternoon, the same situation. You broke 80%, you had an engulfing candle, and you could have kept it up all day, in fact until about 3:15 PM. So , there are ways to make money from such companies. The only reason you need to know the names of these companies is so you can type them right here, right?
Enter Teddoc and earn money. Just follow the rules and you will succeed. This is how you trade these hyped stocks. One of our friends, who literally does this part-time , gave me his numbers for January. He earned five and a half percent. This is one of Seth's friends from college, he's part of the team, a very professional person who works full time.
He's a doctor, and he literally pulls out charts while he waits for his kids' soccer games to end or picks up his kids to see what's going on. If he saw a chart like this, he would execute the deal and earn five and a half percent in January. By the way, he's been here for 11 months, but in January he sat down for the first time and said to me: " Paul, I'll carefully record every transaction, but his account keeps growing." And you should see the shares he sends.
These are NEO, Teldoc, Bitcoin. It's all this crazy stuff, and it doesn't matter. All you need to do is have a trend and you will succeed. Yes. And of course, as Paul would say, follow the process. Field if people are interested in the software behind you, uh, not the one behind you. I always say that because we're always in the studio.
Uh, let's tell them how you can get it. Come on, Paul. So guys, we built the software because the people who watch our videos didn't want to wait for us to make a video about every single promotion. There are over 10,000 stocks. So, we created the software. It includes the eight pillars that you saw earlier.
It includes a retirement calculator, which is just phenomenal. It includes a stock analysis tool that allows you to enter your assumptions about stocks. This is our most popular tool. A portfolio with eight pillars. You can place up to 50 companies in one portfolio and see how it looks as a whole, combining all financial indicators.
Exclusive video content, guys. We post videos every day in our chat right here. As you can see, I have messages waiting for me for everyone to view. Private videos that you won't see on YouTube . All this will be available soon. All of this is available. However, the most important thing in the software is this chat.
There are over 6,000 people in this chat. If you feel alone on your investment journey, where you have opinions about your investing but no one else agrees with you, there are people in the chat who agree with you. There are thousands of them, and their number is growing every month. This allows people to have conversations about everything, including cryptocurrency, including Tesla.
I'm still at the highest level , which only talks to me. I still get told, "Hey, you know, Paul, I still have a Tesla." Perfectly. We are discussing this. We are moving on. I'm not so aggressive towards them, telling them nonsense. But the whole point is that all this is available for $1 a day. Less than a cup of coffee.
$1 a day gives you all of this. If it can increase your profits by one to two% per year or reduce your losses by one to two% per year, it will make you hundreds of thousands, and in fact, probably millions of dollars. So, $1 a day. The price you pay today will lock you at this level forever. Register now .
Everythingmoney.com or Patreon. The advantage of everything.com directly is that . Register. This is Todd Doo. We will let you know if they ever start making money. Hmm, for us it is, as always, emptiness. If it's, as usual, if it's from Katie Wood, we're probably avoiding it for now . So be careful listening to some Yahoo who says, "Come on, Paul." If you want to understand the eight pillars in more depth, there is a video link below where you can go to it and I will provide a much more detailed explanation of each individual pillar.
Okay, that's an option. Uh , one last thumbs up to finish. See you in the next video. Thanks for watching.
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