저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
캐시 우드는 2021년 혁신 섹터 펀드가 부진했지만 장기적으로 크게 성장할 것이라고 주장한다. 핵심 주장: 자산배분자들이 혁신 섹터 비중이 낮으니 포트폴리오의 10%를 혁신 전략에 배분하면 수익률은 높이고 위험은 낮출 수 있다고 주장한다. 상관관계가 낮다는 것이 근거다. 인플레이션: 주식 밸류에이션(S&P 기업 이익 대비 PER 24배, 나스닥 31배)이 여전히 높지만 인플레이션 우려만으로 멀티플이 하락하지 않고 있다고 평가한다. 1982년 약세장 말기 시장 PER은 6배였다는 점을 언급한다. 수익률 전망: 2021년 2월 5년 전망은 연 복리 약 15%였으나, 주가 하락으로 기업 가치가 낮아져 현재 기대 연 복리 수익률은 약 40%로 올라갔다고 주장한다. 언급 종목/섹터 및 방향: 유전체(Genomic) 혁신 플랫폼이 가장 큰 타격을 받았으나 2022년 가장 유망한 분야로 꼽는다. 관련 ETF ARKG는 연초 대비 약 30% 하락 상태다. 블록체인, 로보틱스, AI, 에너지 저장 등 나머지 4개 플랫폼도 장기 성장을 전망한다. 리스크: 다수 유전체 기업이 적자 상태이며, 밸류에이션이 높고 주가 변동성이 크다. 투자자들이 상승 중인 자산을 추격 매수하는 경향이 있다는 점도 지적된다. 출연자 전망: 캐시 우드는 혁신 펀드가 향후 5년간 크게 성장하고 시장 붕괴 징후는 없다고 본다. 2022년 반전 가능성에 대해서는 명확한 시점 언급이 없다.
다듬은 글
kathy wood was one of the top investment managers in 2021 managing a huge 68 billion dollars of investor money now kathy wood actually shot into the mainstream in 2020 as the rptfs went on an absolute tear the flagship fund rk shot up 143 outstanding performance which caught a lot of attention from the media and investors investors began jumping in wanting a share of these lucrative gains however in 2021 it's not been a great year for cathy wood and the rktfs the same flagship fund is still down 20 on the year and what makes it worse is that for passive investors just holding the s p 500 they enjoyed a huge 25 gain on the year the best annual gain in years however we are now approaching a brand new year and the big question is which is going to be the better investment in 2022 investing in the innovation sector or just buying the whole market index fund so in this video we'll be looking at the strategy of kathy woods and arc invest for 2022.
we'll look at inflation will inflation get out of hand next year and then finish with the question out of all the arc etfs which one does kathy wood believe is going to outperform the rest in 2022 so first up let's just do a quick overview of what arc invest is all about basically they go against the grain and they don't invest in the whole market they've selected just the segment which is pure innovation and it's five sectors that they believe will have explosive growth over the next five years and these include blockchain technology the genomics revolution robotics artificial intelligence and energy storage and she believes that these sectors will massively outperform the index fund or benchmarks as she calls them take a look our focus is solely on disruptive innovation we are not a generalist portfolio team we are focused on the five technology five platforms innovation platforms and 14 underlying technologies our analyst responsibilities are broken out by those technologies they are specialists when it comes to the technologies and generalists when it comes to the sectors but we're focused only on disruptive innovation and we have a study up on our site which uh would suggest that because most uh uh most asset allocation allocators are short innovation in the public equity markets that if if they were to include our portfolio one or let's say our our flagship portfolio uh perhaps ten percent of their equity allocation to our flagship and then if they were to use the benchmarks for value and growth over a five-year period and we did the study based on facts our own experience over a five-year period uh arcs strategy would increase returns and lower risk because the correlation of our returns with other strategies is very very low so so that's the primary reason we we depend on asset allocators advisors to uh allocate as much or as little to our strategy one thing i will say is given the massive amount of innovation taking place right now that is going to be highly disruptive we do not believe that most asset allocators have enough allocated to innovation and uh and and i think that the traditional benchmarks talk about risk because of these innovation platforms dna sequencing robotics energy storage artificial intelligence blockchain technologies because those are going to rip through the traditional world order and disturb it mightily uh that those benchmarks are probably where we're seeing the bubble today so if investors were to allocate 10 of their portfolio to innovation their research shows that this will increase your returns and lower risk interesting okay next up what is going to happen with inflation next year is it a legitimate threat the most recent numbers show that inflation is at a 40-year high in the u.s and the reason inflation is important is because different investments and segments do well in times of inflation or deflation and from what i can see consensus is beginning to build that we are going to be getting inflation and that it wasn't transitory however kathy wood does see things differently take a look what i find so interesting about this is that the markets multiple broad based in market so s p's multiple on next year's earnings is at 24 times nasdaq's is at 31 times these are near record highs except for the tech and telecom bubble if inflation is really the risk out there why isn't the entire markets multiple cut coming down i remember when i started in the business late 70s early 80s art introducing me to capital group on the west coast and i'll be forever grateful uh back then uh i think by the end of the bear market in 1982 the market's multiple was down to six i just mentioned that we're up to 24 on that basis right now now you're going after multiples in our our space and and what has happened the depreciation in our stocks from mid-february to today uh has has not done anything to our forecasts we're now just getting uh our forecast we're now just getting our our companies and our stocks at lower prices so in mid uh mid february this year as we did our five year forecast and we assume massive multiple compression during the next five years to something like fang multiples ev to ebitda in the 18 to 20 range when we did that in february at the peak of our strategy the compound annual rate of return we expected from our portfolios was roughly 15 today doing that that analysis some of our projections have increased um the compound annual rate of return we are expecting is close to 40 percent so in february we're expecting a doubling over five years today we're expecting nearly a quintupling over five years and that is a master class of how a money manager can never lose if the market goes up then you are a great money manager however if your funds crash then all that means is that investors are going to get an even greater return over the next five years okay to finish up as mentioned kathy and arc focus on five main markets blockchain technology genomics robotics ai and energy storage so out of these five markets which one does kathy wood believe is going to outperform in 2022 check it out uh can i can i ask you just sort of where are you looking at the markets with all your platforms i think it's five platforms you do what what what are the areas you really think are big winners coming forward and what are the losers and by the way i don't want you to mention biden in the loser category that's my job i'm just joking uh so i think the uh the the platform that has been hit the hardest in this correction is the genomic revolution and the reason is many of these companies are losing money we're in a this this is a movement in its infancy uh and i think the most exciting thing is we can now isolate mutations um in and among our six billion bits of code in our genome so three billion base pairs uh so uh six billion bits of code until recently we we could not isolate those mutations mutations are the earliest manifestation of disease and now what we're beginning to understand is the convergence between and among dna sequencing artificial intelligence and crispr gene editing as well as other gene therapies is curing disease we have functional cures now for beta thalassemia sickle cell disease attr and now these are blood related diseases but these the the companies involved are now focusing on some of the most complicated diseases like diabetes and what we're learning from companies like freenom which is a private company focused on the convergence of ai and dna sequencing we're learning that the body sets up for for disease and that artificial intelligence is able to discern when that setup is taking place so wouldn't it be wonderful to discover cancer in in phase one or stage one or maybe even before so after an epic run in 2020 kathy wood and the arc funds have struggled in 2021 however we are about to enter a brand new year they are 100 committed on these five innovation platforms and they believe that they will quadruple over the next five years they do believe because of technology and innovation we will be seeing exponential growth over the coming years with no signs of a market crash and out of the five innovation platforms she believes it is the genomic revolution that could outperform next year as this was one of the hardest hit this year as of right now the genomic etf arcg is still down almost 30 on the year and this is yet another great example that people like to chase and buy what's going up even though the investing principle is by low sell high but as you can see it's easier said than done should you buy when something is 30 down or 150 percent up because most people do the latter so there you are guys i hope you enjoyed do you think that the arc funds are due a reversal in 2022 let me know what you think click below and join us we've
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