저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
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인도 증시는 제조업 회복 초입이며 자동차·주택 관련 소비가 가장 밝다는 것이 결론이다. [거시·제조업] 제조업 세 번째 성장축은 아직 본격화되지 않았지만 방산·철도 등 일부 분야는 강세. 자동차·주택이 핵심 동력. [자동차] 자동차·이륜차 수요는 3월 이후 회복세, 4~5월도 양호할 것으로 전망. 마루티의 3공장 증설 발표를 수요 증가의 근거로 제시. EV 전환은 중국·유럽보다 느려 현금흐름은 당분간 유지. [주택·부동산] 주택 수요는 공급 대비 격차가 커 긴 상승 사이클 가능성 제시. 금리가 100bp 하락하면 주택 수요 확대. 루피/달러 약세는 인플레 압력으로 작용. [농촌·소비] 기본 수요는 있으나 재량소비는 부진. 코로나 충격 후 도시→농촌 소득 이전이 약 6개월 내 회복, 좋은 몬순이 필요. [외국인·국내 자금] 외국인 자금은 큰 부담 없이 빠져나갔으나 재진입 시 고점에서 부담. 국내 자금은 고정수익(7~8%)으로 이동, 주식 재유입은 지수 상승 후 가능. [지수 전망] 니프티는 1~2년 내 17~18천에서 20~22천 방향 상승 가능성 언급(시점은 내년 또는 그 이후). 내년 이익 성장 20% 가정 시 PER 20배 수준은 합리적. 1년 조정 시 15~17천 축적 구간 가능성. [실적·투자] 모틸랄 오스왈 주가는 하락 후 저점 인식, 자산운용·자본시장 부진, 주택금융은 50~60% 이익 성장. 투자 포트폴리오(100% 지분) 평가이익 축적. 신성장 기업(조마토 등)은 최악은 지났고 수익성 개선 단계 진입 판단.
다듬은 글
foreign financial services and we're talking all things markets we discussed banking we discussed I.T and uh now we want to talk about manufacturing there is a third leg which we've been waiting for so long for it to start to fire right so sputtering kind of starts but uh not very steady although hopes are always very high there but there is always some segments within the manufacturing space which are doing well I mean take defense take Railways over the last two or three years which have done extremely well what is your sense from there let's see the biggest part of manufacturing India's Automotive you know uh so whether it is cars drugs your motorcycles scooters and that is basic Transportation you know I mean so that's where I think uh the high incidence of your GST and all that kind of hinders the immediate demand pickup but I think that demand has also picked up car cars have done very well I believe from March even the two wheelers have picked up reasonably well I mean let's see whether how I believe April May is also going to be good so I think Automotive is picking up without Automotive picking up see there are only two things housing starts and your auto so both of them are the driver of Victory I don't see any household house itself and then the car rest always like a daily culture so uh housing demand is very good real estate is very good so all the components of real estate whether cement steel your plywood your paints and whole lot of things you know whatever goes into building a house filling the house building materials so that's one and that's it's all manufacturing so tires and all so I think that should pick up as we go forward as a uh interest rate subside uh stabilizes or starts going down little bit so that's where I think brightest spot is or uh uh your automotive automotive has one problem this EV versus IC you know that confusion is on who is going to Transit successfully so multiples will be in question you know but I think earnings will because money is not there anyway money is there in I see so uh and transition to EV in China and Europe has become very fast but in India it's still very slow so cash flow will be definitely coming to and look at the capex announcement by maruti they have talked about third plant coming up so that shows a you know demand build up because that's a aspirational Manufacturing Company housing their real estate I mean contractors Builders basically what's your view we had the management of load up with us recently of course they were talking their book but they basically said that we are in the second or the third year of what is going to be a longer than usual real estate upcycle do you do you believe that to be true yeah I mean we're not made money out of any real estate so I'm not but I think this is almost a lost ticket for them so it must last because ultimately housing needs are there everybody needs house there's so much of gap between the housing stock and demand so clearly uh if and here they're interested is very important if by chance we can give interested little lower then say today seven half eight percent if that can come down by even 100 basis point I think this uh this run on demand for housing that will keep building up and this is where again this rupee dollar is going to play a role if you keep losing four percent it does play into the inflation if that becomes zero uh you imagine you know at least 50 of that will flow into decline of the inflation what about the rural Market are you worried about the rural slowdown extending itself because h2l's volume growth numbers were not very inspiring this time so I spoke to one or two companies which are catering to they're saying that basic demand is there but anything called discretionary say that's not doing well in the world so is it because of the eye inflation is it because of the high taxation incidence is it because of uh just that construction transfers are not picked up fully you know because lot of rural income is not only agriculture it's also what transfers go from Urban centers to the rural centers so maybe trickle down may take another six months or so because dislocation of dislocation because of covet was very very deep so I would think that it's a trickle down and maybe another six months and good Monsoon I think that will do the trick here I'm going to ask you a couple of questions on the floors I recall you telling us the FIS they're having it easy getting out of the market whether when they have to come back it's going to be painful at higher levels so you know that or that seems to have played out as well in the last month or so we've seen more by numbers on the FIS yeah so how do you see the F5 flow is moving and also with regard to the domestic flows now you're getting fixed income at seven eight percent you know so do you think there is a chance that domestic flows cooled down a little bit yeah it has definitely cooled down because all the guys who came I mean they've not lost money because of steadiness of the market but they've also not made money not made money yeah and the guys who went to fixed income they didn't have to go through up and downs and they still made 70 yeah so as the market takes off from here and goes up by 20 then again the power of equity will come back in the sense that it is at 12 instead of six percent so that assertion to the new set of people is yet to happen so the index has to go from current uh 17 18 000 to more like twenty twenty two thousand whenever it happens maybe next year year after that it will happen uh that I don't have any doubts so when that happens then people realize that here this is where the money is made yeah so uh and real fun will be when something happens in the earnings growth picks up to 20 then you see rupees stable and earnings growth is 20 and P multiple is also 20.
because next year talking about 900 anywhere between 25 to 50. so then you are at 18 000 so you are talking about less than 20 p for 24 yes which is kind of a reasonable so then fi is also filing yeah so a lot of things are converging into uh what can happen in next one year so that's what we're uh let's get to the earnings at uh they've been a little subdued yes if you look at Asset Management asset and wealth management Capital markets numbers have been on a year-on-year basis uh subdued home finance is the one which seems to be the bright spot yeah tell us what are the thoughts of all the businesses uh we had a bit of problem in last two three years in Housing Finance now with all the you know what is happening to the entire financial sector this is also picked up and now we are out of the woods I would say there is a 50 60 growth in the profits and it is looking good in the years ahead so I think that is one achievement the rest of the businesses are stable is a twin engine you know like one is a operating business another is the Investment Portfolio Investment Portfolio is 100 Equity so last year when the market was flagged broadly portfolio has remained stable so there is no accrual because of that which is very 60 70 of the balance sheet is there whereas the earning side has done four five percent higher only all put together so clearly my net worth has grown about uh uh 12 to 15 percent in the current year from 5600 has gone to 62.50 and the moment the second engine also works in next year or year after then you will see the I think the last eight years compounded growth in the net worth has been more like 25 24 25 so I think those rates will come back but current air is not matching with that all right quick final question then on the index itself you know with a one year Horizon will be at 19 500 16 500 or do you think we consolidate at these levels will be higher I don't know how higher because see once one year is negative then you have you have longer you underperform that 12 is getting accumulated so I would think 15 17 it is ready for a move gains gains accumulate yeah it's like a what you call cumulative redeemable preferences so if you don't pay now you're going to get it later on the investment book at Mozilla I mean anything you you've added anything uh no it's same I'm a republican private some kind of a split is there so that continues the public market side and anything anything uh because you keep evaluating opportunities yeah no no nothing uh direct yes it's all going into in fact last year a Christian to the uh Investment Portfolio is low because of this all these regulatory changes that is taking a lot of free cash flow from the operating side into the businesses these new age businesses you had a strong view I mean things like zomato Etc how's the view panning now because I think worse is behind yeah worse is behind I mean we have seen peak of uh pessimism and I think some kind of uh uh I would not say optimism but some kind of sensibility is prevailing and your managements are going for faster road to profit and they are struggling to they're not used to showing profit so so they have to work extra hard to change the track and instead of losing money at a cost a little bit of growth they have to make the model more profitable thank you so much for being with being here with us and thank you very much for dropping by uh into our Studios it's always a pleasure having you with us here on same basic TV thank you well uh there you have it ramji Agarwal at motor also financial services and all things markets uh his view on sectors banking I.T building materials manufacturing as a space and of course some of the new age companies as well wrapping up with a little bit and the earnings from Motorola and what you can expect if you're a shareholder there uh that's Market Masters for you thank you very much from all of us here goodbye thank you
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