저자: 라맨데브아그라왈 · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 인도 증시는 실적 개선과 경기 성장 기대로 지금 분할 매수를 시작하기 좋은 시점이며, 향후 1년은 지수가 추가 상승할 가능성이 높다는 낙관적 견해. [실적 시즌 평가] 4분기 실적은 네슬레, 마루티 등 일부 기업이 긍정적 서프라이즈를 보였고 은행 전반도 양호했다. 은행 시스템은 30~40년 경력 중 가장 튼튼하며 정부 자본 지원이 필요 없을 만큼 자본이 충실하다. [거시 및 비용 환경] 원자재·물류 비용은 하락 추세이며 1~2분기부터 마진 개선이 가시화될 전망이다. 경제성장률은 6~7%, 물가상승률은 4~5% 수준으로 예상했다. 원/달러 환율 강세와 경상수지 적자 축소(약 1% 수준)도 긍정 요인으로 꼽았다. [향후 실적 전망] 향후 몇 분기 동안 추가 하향 조정(다운그레이드)은 있을 수 있다고 봤다. 그럼에도 니프티 기준 이익 성장률은 15~17% 수준이 예상된다. 농촌 저가 소비는 여전히 약하다고 평가했다. [은행] 올해 은행 실적은 양호할 것이며 순이자마진(NIM) 축소 우려는 있으나 매출 성장이 견조하다고 봤다. 다만 은행 섹터가 과거 12개월처럼 큰 초과수익을 낼지는 불확실하며 시장 대비 크게 두드러지진 않을 것으로 전망했다. [IT] IT 실적은 실망스러웠으나 밸류에이션이 조정되어 매수 적기로 봤다. 미국 경기 회복 후 IT 수주가 회복될 것으로 기대했다. 대형 중견 IT(LTI 등, 2~3억 달러 규모)를 선호한다고 언급했다. [제조·자동차·건설] 자동차 판매는 3월 이후 회복세이며 4~5월도 양호할 것으로 봤다. EV 전환은 인도에서 중국·유럽보다 느리다. 주택 수요는 매우 강하며 금리가 100bp 하락하면 주택 수요가 더 살아날 것으로 봤다. 시멘트·철강·페인트 등 건자재 수요도 긍정적이다. 농촌 재량소비는 약하나 6개월 내 회복 및 몬순 양호 시 개선될 것으로 봤다. [수급·금융] 외국인(FII) 자금 유입은 다소 둔화됐고, 국내 투자자들은 고정수익(7~8%)으로 이동했다. 지수가 17,000~18,000에서 20,000~22,000까지 상승하면 주식으로 자금이 되돌아올 것으로 봤다. 모틸랄오스왈 자체 실적은 홈파이낸스 성장(50~60%)이 좋고, 자산 포트폴리오(100% 주식)는 시장 횡보 중에도 안정적이었다. [지수 전망] 1년 목표 구간은 명시적으로 19,500 또는 16,500 중 선택을 묻는 질문에 15~17천 구간 조정 후 상승 준비 가능성을 언급했다. 지수가 1년 마이너스면 12% 누적 기대치가 쌓여 추가 상승 여력이 있다고 봤다. [신경회사·리스크] 신사업 기업(조메토 등)은 비관의 정점을 지났다고 평가했다. 리스크로는 NIM 축소, 농촌 소비 부진, 외국인 자금 재유입 지연이 언급됐다.
다듬은 글
thank you well hello and welcome to this special program uh markets are of course about four or five percent away from all-time highs uh will we get to all-time highs can the market continue to perform like it has been from the lows which were made in the end of March that's the question and who better to answer some of this than Ram the Agarwal chairman and co-founder moti Los Val Financial Services uh he's with us here in our Studios great to have you with us here good morning thank you very much sir for making detail uh what is your sense we are in the midst of the earnings season yeah and you're a very close Watcher of earnings and you've always believed that earnings will dictate eventually where stock prices go so what's your reading of what we've seen so far from the fourth quarter earnings yeah so fourth quarter we are seeing some positive surprises uh in terms of earnings like Nestle as a uh maruti's number or automotive and all so they were kind of a bright spots uh Banks across the board like the private as well as public so I think in my 30 40 years care this is the best what you call banking system across like whether it is a private and public you have very robust banking system apart from profit growth and limb growth and all that lowest credit cost and all just that every bank is capitalized government doesn't have to give any uh submission or support Capital support to any of the banking systems so I think it is really ready to fund the Indian economics growth so that's one one good thing I see and uh last year could have been a very good year but for the Ukraine war and all the inflationary and logistic dislocation things like that but now I think that seems to be subsiding I I've visited a lot of companies and all of them are saying that uh cost is definitely on the decline uh it may not be in the Q4 this quarter that they will get to see the benefit of that but q1 Q2 should be much better because all those high cost inventory they'll all get consumed in this quarter and next quarter onwards you see the margin sex bonding so I think earnings momentum is going to build slowly from here onwards uh economy is likely to grow at any better than six to seven percent with four five percent inflation another brightest spot in the economy which is developing is the stronger rupee if you see the rupee today I don't know how much is trading yesterday it was 81 75 or 77 so continuously there is a strength of rupee current account deficit is slumped in the Q4 is it one quarter phenomena or it is going to be repeating because the kind of services board we saw in last four quarters does it is it going to continue at that pace you know even at 50 70 percent I think uh we are in a very interesting turning point of Indian economy by chance our current account deficit comes to about one percent or so which can be funded very easily and so rupee dollar where we keep losing three four percent every year which again has huge implications everywhere interest rate inflation I think there we might get some relief I mean even if three four percent decline comes down to a percentage or so because then RBI will try to build a reserve about a trillion two trillion whatever so I think we are in a very good sweet spot uh my senses all this acceleration to you many uh have said that there will be a deceleration the continent after third quarter earnings or lots of downgrades yeah we will go through this process of more downgrades this year because the world is slowing down and some of it will show up here as well yeah but Indian economy has its own kind of momentum the government has said its own momentum of 600 is the fastest growing economy so in that context see if you look at the even Q till Q3 first three quarters the Top Lane both have corporates who are like 15 16 it's just that cost inflation they just couldn't pass and has a anisles are very muted Q4 is looking much better uh if you look at the aggregate numbers so my sense is going forward from here we are going to see that at least 15 15 17 across the board Nifty earnings growth uh there will be some spots of weakness I believe some portion of rural economy there the low end discretionary spent is still pretty weak but that always will be there some reason or another but I think across the board earnings once the earning momentums pick up then you know the retail Behavior fi behavior and and if you see longer terms see one one is that we are focused on next four quarters and things like that but you look at five ten years this only this is the only large economy where you can save five to seven percent sustained growth for 10 years which economy you can say I mean China has done what it has done but from here onwards China growth history Still Remains intact but the stock market story is gone nowhere so after us it's only India where you have opportunity of going going from three and a half trillion to seven trillion and if the rupee doesn't depreciate in next five seven years then you can achieve that in maybe five six years you know so you could be studying at 200 at least you invest for six seven years which is going economy going from three and a half to seven trillion I mean you and me cannot imagine how how India will look in 2030 India is very bright but just talking about say the next 12 months do you think banks will be out performers or Market performers because everyone's expecting good numbers so in a way it's priced in it's already outperformed and then there is a risk of Nims Contracting so can Banks generate that Alpha which they did in the last uh you know 12 months going ahead I would think it will not be huge Alpha but uh I think because see the LA there are two largest segment of the market one is the the spanking second is it these two make up almost like 45 50 of the market yes if it in any case is slow down so I don't expect it to be in a terrific shape though in U.S it is doing very well but in India because of their own earnings slow down I think Rd will it will consider it in this year so then only thing left is the banking so and banking earnings are going to be very good in this year I I don't yeah I mean there are there are thought talks about nemex Contracting maybe 10 peps 20 babes or things like that but still the top line goes will be pretty good and operating leverage will also come so my sense is that the current year should be good year for banking as a whole but I don't know how big will be outperformance Market performing yes all right uh and I'm there you know so banks are continue to do well on the on their results or whatever I T that's been the big disappointment right that's the other smaller pillar but that's disappointed very good quality companies but if you are buying like you said invest for a little longer duration someone who's Investing For Five Years or good time to start nibbling in right now yeah clearly valuations are corrected the good time to buy I see it story of India is going to be the story of India in a sense that we are going to write this and uh it is going to come back and come back with wenginess in the sense that uh the growth rate which is which might come down from said 12 13 to maybe uh High single digits seven eight percent ten percent so then you know something will change you know when the U.S economy World economy comes out of shell and they want to again uh build up investing in their ITV and all again we'll get orders so good time to start dipping into it yeah I mean you can go stock by stock but you have time this is that you can start building up your portfolio on it also preference between mid and large I.T companies uh I think large mid caps who qualifies under that yeah like LTI types you know which are in two three billion dollar kind of a thing yeah so they don't suffer from the lack of scale and they also don't suffer from the large scale that's very well put you know so it and banking is what we've spoken about services but what about Third Leg manufacturing and that's the question that we'll put around we have to take a quick commercial break here we're back with that in just a bit thank you welcome back we're in conversation with ramdev Agarwal of Motorola financial services and we're talking all things markets we discussed banking we discussed I.T and now we're going to talk about manufacturing there is a third leg which we've been waiting for so long for it to start to fire right pottering kind of starts but not very steady although hopes are always very high there but there is always some segments within the manufacturing space which are doing well I mean take defense take Railways over the last two or three years which have done extremely well what is your sense from there you see the biggest part of manufacturing and there's Automotive you know uh so whether it's cars trucks or motorcycles scooters and that is basic Transportation you know I mean so that's where I think uh the high incidence of your GST and all that kind of hinders the immediate demand pickup but I think that demand has also picked up car cars have done very well I believe from March even the two wheelers have picked up reasonably well I mean let's see whether how I believe April May is also going to be good so I think Automotive is picking up without Automotive picking up see there are only two things housing starts and your auto so both of them are the driver of Victory I don't see any household house itself and then the car rest always like a daily culture so uh housing demand is very good real estate is very good so all the components of real estate whether cement steel you have plywood your paints and whole lot of things you know whatever goes into building a house filling the house building materials so that's one and that's salt manufacturing so ties and all so I think that should pick up as we go forward as a uh interest rate subside stabilizes or starts going down little bit so that's where I think brightest spot is or uh your automotive automotive has one problem this EV versus IC you know that confusion is on who is going to Transit successfully so multiples will be in question you know but I think earnings will because money is not there anyway money is there in I see so uh and transition to EV in China and Europe has become very fast but in India is still very slow so cash flow will be definitely coming to and look at the capex announcement by maruti they have talked about third plant coming up and football also there so that shows a you know demand build up because that's a aspirational Manufacturing Company housing their real estate I mean contractors Builders basically what's your we had the management of load up with us recently because they were talking their book but they basically said that we are in the second or the third year of what is going to be a longer than usual real estate upcycle do you do you believe that to be true yeah I mean we're not made money out of any real estate so I'm not but I think this is almost a lost ticket for them so it must last because ultimately housing needs are there everybody needs house there's so much of gap between the housing stock and demand so clearly uh if and here they're interested is very important if by chance we can give interested little lower then say today seven half eight percent if that can come down by even 100 basis point I think this uh this run on demand for housing that will keep building up and this is where again this rupee dollar is going to play a role if you keep losing four percent it does play into the inflation if that becomes zero uh you imagine you know at least 50 of that will flow into decline of the inflation what about the rural Market are you worried about the rural slowdown extending itself because h2l's volume growth numbers were not very inspiring this time so I spoke to one or two companies which are catering to they're saying that basic demand is there but anything called discretionary say that's not doing well in rural so is it because of the eye inflation is it because of the high taxation incidence is it because of uh just that construction transfers are not picked up fully you know because lot of rural income is not only agriculture it's also what transfers go from Urban centers to the rural centers so maybe trickle down may take another six months or so because dislocation of dislocation because of covet was very very deep so I would think that it's a trickle down and maybe another six months and good Monsoon I think that will do the trick here I'm going to ask you a couple of questions on the floors I recall you telling us the FIS they're having it easy getting out of the market whether when they have to come back it's going to be painful at higher levels so you know that or that seems to have played out as well in the last month or so we've seen more by numbers on the FIS yeah so how do you see the F5 flow is moving and also with regard to the domestic flows now you're getting fixed income at seven eight percent you know so do you think there is a chance that domestic flows cooled down a little bit yeah it has definitely cooled down because all the guys who came I mean they've not lost money because of steadiness of the market but they've also not made money not made money yeah and the guys who went to fixed income they didn't have to go through up and downs and they still made 70 yeah so as the market takes off from here and goes up by 20 then again the power of equity will come back in the sense that it is at 12 percent instead of six percent so that assertion to the new set of people is yet to happen so the index has to go from current uh 17 18 000 to more like twenty twenty two thousand whenever it happens maybe next year year after that it will happen uh that I don't have any doubts so when that happens then people realize that here this is where the money is made yeah so uh and real fun will be when something happens in the earnings World picks up to 20 then you see rupees stable and earnings growth is 20 and P multiple is also 20.
because next year talking about 900 anywhere between 25 to 50. so then you are at 18 000 so you are talking about less than 20 p for 24 yes which is kind of a reasonable so then fi is also piling yeah so a lot of things are converging into uh what can happen in next one year so that's what we're going to let's get to the earnings at uh they've been a little subdued yes if you look at Asset Management asset and wealth management Capital markets numbers have been on a year-on-year basis uh subdued home finance is the one which seems to be right the bright spot yeah tell us what what are the thoughts of all the businesses uh we had a bit of problem in last two three years in Housing Finance now with all the you know what is happening to the entire financial sector this is also picked up and now we are out of the woods I would say there is a 50 60 growth in the profits and it is looking good in the years ahead so I think that is one achievement the rest of the businesses are stable actually is a twin engine you know like one is a operating business another is the Investment Portfolio Investment Portfolio is 100 Equity so last year when the market was flat broadly portfolio has remained stable so there is no accrual because of that which is very 60 70 of the balance sheet is there whereas the earning side has done four five percent higher only all put together so clearly my net worth has grown about uh 12 to 15 percent in the current year from 5600 has gone to 62.50 and the moment uh the second engine also works in next year or year after then you will see the I think last eight years compounded growth in the net worth has been more like 25 24 25 so I think those rates will come back but the current air is not matching with that all right quick final question then on the index itself you know with a one year Horizon will be at 19 500 16 500 or do you think we consolidate at these levels will be higher I don't know how higher because see once one year is negative then you have you are longer you underperform that 12 is getting accumulated so I would think 15 17 it is ready for a move gains gains accumulate yeah it's like a what you call cumulative redeemable preferences so if you don't pay now you're going to get it later on the investment I mean anything you you've added anything uh no it's same I'm a public and private some kind of a split is there so that continues Public Market side and anything anything uh because you keep uh evaluating opportunities yeah no no nothing uh directly yes it's all going into in fact uh last year accretion to the uh Investment Portfolio is low because of this all these regulatory changes that is taking a lot of free cash flow from the operating side into the businesses these new age businesses you had a strong view I mean things like zomato Etc how's the view panning now because I think worse is behind yeah versus behind I mean we have seen peak of uh pessimism and I think some kind of uh uh I would not say optimism but some kind of sensitivity is prevailing and even managements are going for faster road to profit and they are struggling to they're not used to showing profit so so they have to work extra hard to change the track and instead of losing money at a cost of little bit of growth they have to make the model more profitable thank you so much for being with being here with us and thank you very much for dropping by uh into our Studios it's always a pleasure having you with us here on same basic TV thank you well uh there you have it ramji Agarwal at motor also financial services and all things markets uh his view on sectors banking I.T building materials manufacturing as a space and of course some of the new age companies as well wrapping up with a little bit and the earnings from and what you can expect if you're a shareholder there uh that's Market Masters for you thank you very much from all of us here goodbye thank you
Comments 0