Here’s how the Second Wave Crisis will Change Making Money

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코로나 2차 파동 우려 속 'resurgent(반등형)' 업종 — 에어비앤비와 광고 — 은 현재 공백이 커서 향후 수익 기회가 크다고 주장. 건설·자동차·리테일은 회복 후 붐 가능성. 'insurgent(성장 가속형)' 기업(Zoom, Netflix, MSFT 등)은 현재 고평가로 하락 후 장기 성장 전망. 'forsaken(쇠퇴형)' 업종(커피숍, 오피스, 비즈니스 출장 관련)은 장기 부진. 부동산은 8월 종료 시 4~8%, 12월 종료 시 10~12% 하락 가능성을 제시하나 단기 회복력 강조.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. hey everyone Kevin here I've been thinking about making more money and I got to thinking about these of three types of businesses so that I can anticipate how to make more money and anticipating things these days is hard so we're gonna have a dialogue about this but first why is anticipating anything hard these days well China's lying to us who would I guess that would have ever happened the stock market is having a bout of insanity and Carnival Cruise Lines is now having a 30% off sale their stock they're raising over six billion dollars to float their cash burn of five hundred million dollars per month just to try to stay afloat so that you can now essentially buy your ship on a stake your piece of ship through the low low price of next to $8 a per share in other words Carnival Cruise Lines is literally taking 500 million dollars and throwing them into a fire pit every single month just to say float how in this kind of environment are we supposed to understand how to invest especially when we're worried and not just about this outbreak but what the outbreak is going to do and what it's going to mean in case all of us are suddenly fearful about a second wave we don't want to be the first in a second wave right and beyond a second wave how are consumer behaviors and trends going to change and evolve because of this calamity well folks I'm gonna try to make sense of all that with these three types of industry changes let's get started number one resurgent industries resurgent industries are basically areas in the marketplace right now where there is a massive void I'll talk about that I'll explain this with some examples and what's gonna happen is after the sort of initial wave and even through second waves or further fears we're gonna see this void and get filled with an immense opportunity to make a lot of profit and this is really important in the long run these where Sergent industries are gonna revert back to equilibrium and that really big profit potential is gonna go away so if none of that lasts like 20 seconds made sense basically these kind of companies are gonna make a lot of money very shortly after all this stuff ends and then they're going to go back to making a normal money here the two best examples I have right now the first huge potential for resurgent companies air B&B think about this right now sales for air B&B s have plummeted they are rock-bottom they hit a wall they were great zooming everything's good rock-bottom you've got zero sales people are losing their shorts with Airbnb s right now because they can't get bookings they're having to turn them into longer-term rentals or they're having to sell these properties if they even own them some people are so unlucky that they fell for rent to rent schemes the signing up for long-term leases to turn properties into an air B&B so for example they rent a house for $2,500 they put it up on Airbnb and they try to get like $150 a night to try to make somewhere on four thousand their goal is to pocket the difference there you go rental arbitrage Airbnb property right the problem is when that goes away you're still stuck with the $2,500 lease and you can't call up the lender and go huh I need four parents hmm sucks bad day so what's happening well think about this Airbnb is the type of industry where the properties that do the best are the ones that have the best rating the most highly rated five-star properties are usually the ones that get the best bookings look at the highest rate of bookings and get the highest pay usually people would rather pay a premium for a 5-star property then gamble on an unrevealed or low reviewed property so this creates a massive opportunity as a resurgent industry for all of us here's what I mean by that if you've ever thought about getting into the Airbnb space now is the time to start thinking about how all of your competition just died literally all of your Airbnb competition is gone and I would say like 99% okay I can't say everybody's gone but most of your competition is gone and nobody's starting to do Airbnb ease right now I mean that wouldn't be smart I don't encourage you to do that now but what I do encourage you to do is start planning to fill this void because if you plan now how to acquire a good Airbnb deal how to acquire a good wedge deal below market value how by something or even lock up a rental on something that is going to make a good Airbnb in the future you might be able to position yourself to make a massive profit as soon as Airbnb start opening up again that is as soon as this outbreak sort of slows down and goes away there's going to be a massive void in the Airbnb market there's gonna be this massive opening for people to list Airbnb is again then people start putting Airbnb s on the market again except for the prior super host who might have entered long-term leases or sold their properties so a lot of your competition just evaporated it's kind of like imagine YouTube set every youtubers subscriber count' at zero it's gonna be the biggest gold rush of people starting again and everybody's back on an equal playing field this is why you go from void to profit now is your time to plan how you're gonna start making this profit which by the way I'm starting to release some investing lectures on how to acquire specifically properties that we could turn into Airbnb ease in the investing course and this will be coupled with the do-it-yourself property management course however the downside of this is if you're not properly prepared before this outbreak ends then people with a plan are gonna take the profit they're gonna be the ones to get the five star reviews again first and then we're gonna start seeing price and go back to equilibrium especially for the people who don't yet have reviews in other words the people who wait too long to start thinking about gearing towards this Airbnb Gold Rush that's going to happen are going to miss the profit from filling the void huge potential right here the second big resurgent industry advertising and I'm not suggesting that you should open an advertising business but think about this most realtors and people like construction companies or businesses of all sorts no matter what kind of side hustle you have even dropshippers most people right now are pulling their ads so right now we have a massive decline in the number of ads in the competition for ads which has severely reduced the cost for ads but what does this void also do it kind of clean slates people's short-term think about coca-cola I mean we're all not gonna forget coca-cola but let's just use them as an example they spend billions on advertising to us to brainwash us into gotta get a coke if I want a soda I want a coke well when there's an advertising void and people stop advertising their products because they start hoarding cash the consumer begins to forget and sort of all that built up they're not all of it but a lot of that built-up branding goes away so not only are we seeing this lack of ads right now and ad costs are coming down but consumer minds are kind of getting clean slate it it's kind of like somebody's coming along and going whoop all that advertising you spend in the past just got a race this creates a huge massive opportunity for newer advertisers so if you have a side hustle if you have a business you have a drop shipping store whatever the void in ad space as real estate agents like I have a real estate agent sales course all real estate age now is an excellent time to start planning your marketing strategy to list a ton of ads as we start hitting that curve turning point and if you can lock in ad contracts now for say three to six months from now because sales reps are desperately trying to sell you ad space at the discount now is the time to lock in ad contracts because that's gonna go from void to profit and then in the future we're gonna be right back to the saturated EQ of overly sold ad spaces and way too many ads and way too expensive ads to where it's not profitable anymore Airbnb and as huge resurgent opportunities now what are some other possible resurgent businesses where we're seeing that void right now which is gonna create opportunities in the future well big voids right now in construction cars and lifestyle obviously construction workers a lot of them are unemployed right now choosing to take those unemployment paychecks because well you got it if you don't have a job a lot of people don't want contractors in houses right now a lot of contractors don't want to be in people's houses who are potentially sick but what's going to happen to construction after this is all over well first of all contractors are going to have a nightmare of a time trying to get employees again this is going to create a big in the availability of contractors which means it's gonna take a while for the construction industry to rebound however my expectation is a lot of people are going to spend big money on renovations because they're gonna be sick and tired of the crap and dated stuff they've been living with now I recommend to all my course members do not spend money renovating your own property instead only spend money on your rentals and turning things into rentals by following the exact prescription in the rental renovations course for level 1 2 & 3 renovations but even though I think there's gonna be this sort of temporary issue hiring enough labor force again I think there could be a solid construction boom coming which means investing in material companies investing in home depot lowes investing in home builders might be an opportunity as we start bottoming out and we start seeing the turn probably not sooner cars same thing once we start bottoming out I think people are gonna be sick and tired of being inside we're going to see more people wanting to travel on their own accord not through Airlines not sitting on a plane around other people but instead finding comfort in their cars and potentially a new car after this long bout of saving everybody just went through and people might be more tempted to now splurge on that Tesla or that new pickup truck everybody's been waiting for aka that new Tesla lifestyle this is a big one let's focus on this potential void here see by lifestyle I want you to think of the retail revolution we know that retail stores are getting destroyed by companies like Amazon but think luxury retail what is luxury retail it usually include entertainment and enjoying yourself by being able to go out to the movie theater being able to go out to a local concert held at the retail mall or whatever as retail starts transforming to cater more towards lifestyle which I think after we're all trapped for many months we're gonna want a lot of lifestyle I see a large resurgent potential in retail however there is a risk factor here in retail for example this morning I actually bought some stock in a Reid I almost never do this but I bought some stock in the Simon Property Group which has a lot of luxury retail outlet malls their earnings are going to get hammered for quite a while going forward obviously as retailers shut down but beyond that they're also going to have to spend a lot of money transforming their business towards one that focuses more on entertainment but out of the opportunities that exist inside of the reed space Simon Property Group is selling for a massive discount a lot of their board members are buying their own shares and they with mostly a luxury or more higher class retail operation in my opinion are best suited to sort of transform their business over towards that entertainment direction movie theatres entertainment at malls so on and so forth so interesting opportunity potential here but I'm gonna put a big asterisk on this one because they could just go bankrupt ooh and remember something has the potential of going bankrupt it is speculative let's now take a look at insurgent companies which insurgent companies are going to take a completely different course when it comes to making money which speaking of a course and making money have you joined me yet use the coupon code link below expire soon you get to join me i actually negotiating good deals Do It Yourself property management saving cash flow and of course the money course that's still in development great awesome new money lectures coming out on that very very soon but let's go into insurgent companies now insurgent companies are going to be companies that are going to see a vast boost and profits right now but something really interesting is going to happen in these industries some examples of these are going to be companies like think zoom video communications Netflix these companies getting this temporary boost because of the whole stay at home movement these companies are going to see a dramatic increase in profit now these companies all of these industries even Microsoft is going to be affected with their gaming side and their telecommuting conferencing software's right so Microsoft zoom Netflix these stay at home stocks and companies these industries profit however once the whole stay at home thing evolves we're actually going to see a temporary decline in these industries followed by what I believe we'll be a boom in these industries so there's gonna be this this weird sort of surge up now oh gosh stay-at-home cultures over oh no sellout and then this nice long-run trend of growth in these companies here's exactly how I think we can position ourselves on these in 2019 only four percent of groceries were purchased online that number has doubled and quadrupled in the span of 30 days alone thanks to this outbreak a substantial increase in the population of senior citizens now using grocery delivery services as well is starting to habituate consumers into why the heck am i driving to the grocery store when i can have target instacart and Whole Foods deliver food for me this is going to create a massive shift in the way people spend money because when people start getting used to buying groceries online and they start getting more comfortable with their service people the people delivering their food they start getting exotically with a1 and the service becomes more efficient the entire industry of grocery stores will change and evolve unfortunately we have not yet seen a big discount in companies like Walmart or Whole Foods which is Amazon however we have seen an opportunity in target's pricing target might be an opportunity to take advantage of this not yet premium pricing but still the opportunity to take advantage of grocery delivery services on the flip side here are the stocks that I believe are selling for a little bit of a premium right now like Amazon Netflix Microsoft is zoom not to be confused with the other stock which actually is written as e o om zoom video communications is just ZM a pallet on super volatile right now and Nestle the Swiss manufacturer and maker of Nespresso these are companies that they've kind of already seen that surge up in pricing or they've stayed stable through all this madness now that does not mean they're not going to trend upwards but we're certainly not in my opinion seeing massive buying opportunities out of these companies right now I do believe though that they're going to benefit from this long-term trend as an insurgent company but as this outbreak fizzles we're going to see a downtrend and then that longer uptrend but to me the real opportunities are actually coming out in the following industries a 3d virtual tours virtual reality so if you could find a way to invest in a company like mater port or you can invest in your own business where you create a matter for business I've got a video coming out by the way teaching you how to create a mater port business and reviewing a few different cameras so make sure to LIKE and subscribe and stay tuned for that the other one that is going to start blowing up because uh people are home and tinkering around any of the home automation divisions IKEA is going hardcore on the home automation right now other companies obviously the Philips hue brand these are cool opportunities to start thinking about paying attention to as may be unseen insurgent businesses where the premium hasn't fully yet been priced in now we've seen some higher valuations already for companies like Activision Blizzard get out there and go gaming this makes sense eSports becoming more popular but here's another one and that's a good potential right now now is the time where a lot of people are starting to take into their own hands a lot of different forms of do-it-yourself so not just that home automation tinkering but also do-it-yourself home improvements Hardware source and essential service they're staying open during the Sun obviously people will be spending less cash so we're gonna still see it an earnings impact but the more people doing do-it-yourself now is going to create more people with more skills who have do-it-yourself skills in the future the same goes for do-it-yourself a property management learning how to manage your properties yourself so you can increase your cash flow and maximize your tenant leverage I got a course on that very very important now remember when it comes to insurgent companies the big thing we're seeing now or higher valuations now I expect to see those valuations come down as all of this madness fades and then I wouldn't be surprised if we start to see that long-run growth as people have now changed their mindset in their habits to be more interested in these insurgent companies so this is why I like these companies newer technologies the telecommuting really really good opportunities just not at these higher valuations so bottom line not super excited about buying these companies right now I am excited about doing yourself property management in 3d as an opportunity because you're doing that yourself it's not something you're buying in at a potential high and then we're gonna see that sort of short term down and that long-run growth something to keep in mind about the insurgent companies in theory you could say a good example of an insurgent company recently was actually Tesla Tesla before this sort of outbreak saw that sort of sky-high valuation followed by that decline and perhaps now the expectation is we're gonna see that sort of longer run growth trend once we get through this process so this is sort of a prior example of an insurgent company all right folks now it's time for the Forsaken industries these are the ones that I personally expect are going to see longer run that declines any kind of growth is going to be muted not my most enthusiastic investment right now forsaken industries are going to be things like coffee shop sorry Starbucks shareholders which means sorry Kevin good thing I don't own a ton of Starbucks shares but this is not so good and we're gonna see a lot of pain in my opinion getting people back into the habit of getting out of their way and buying coffee they're gonna be a lot more used to buying coffee at home also office space Wow with this forced telecommuting yeah office space is still going to be important people are going to want to go back to work to their office spaces but the need to continue to grow when staff can essentially now have people working from home massive massive revolution also going to see a revolution in the style of Human Resources so if you've ever thought about getting a degree in human resources in my opinion we're gonna see a revolution here towards people with skills in interviewing people via video so if you're looking for a potential career a career in human resources could be really interesting especially as we see a surge in a rehiring and be an industry that sort of shifts towards well rather than have you fly out and come into the office let's just stick it with our human resource video conference interrogator expert here have them screen you virtually before we spend a dime traveling you around which speaking of businesses spending money on travel the next industry that in my opinion is gonna get crushed in at least some form business traveled so companies like Marriott who cater to business law customers airlines in my opinion like Delta or American catering to those business travelers because of this this insurgent industry of telecommuting and teleconferencing in my opinion the whole first-class travel and this massive need for all this business traveling it's going to go in the toilet people are gonna be used to like wow I didn't have to fly there for a meeting I didn't have to go from New York to LA for this meeting this is meeting it and everybody's now used to it all the older board members are like I'm going with this I can now do it from my library a my yacht so if you were thinking about creating an air B&B business in an area that mostly caters to business individuals possible red flag for you obviously I expect New York to still be okay in terms of a business travel this is a business Mecca after all but Airbnb is pretty much banned in New York so do consider how these pieces of the puzzle all come together no no not Mufasa we're talking real estate now a big shift that I'm gonna be expecting is actually a shift I hate to say this I really hate to say this because I love multifamily but tighter multi-family real estate with smaller units closer together gonna get a hit because of this a social distancing is going to increase the likelihood of this sort of human phobia and wanting to be able to go home and be away from other people it's sad but this could be the start of a cultural shift away from this desire of closer tight-knit living this is also going to hurt the the house hack market in my opinion and we'll also see some pain over in room rentals you know renting out I guess the same thing I was hacking essentially maybe like college or dorm style renting I think there's going to be a greater shift towards a single-family and this could be temporary it is possible that you know in three years this whole kind of maybe anti apartment living feeling is going to fade away and we'll be right back where we were but for right now I do see a greater resilience in single-family that is I don't think single-family is going to be affected as much although the entire market does move up and down together to recap what I mentioned in one of my prior videos I'll link this one down below so you can see it in detail but I personally believe that if this all ends by August we'll see real estate suffer a hit of somewhere between 4 to 8 percent if this all ends by December like the end of the year we'll see a little bit more of that 10 to 12 percent hit and really only if we go beyond December am I expecting any kind of a larger potential hit to real estate values right now real estate values are very resilient I know that might not be what you want to hear as a buyer but I'd rather provide you realistic information than just say everything's gonna be a million times cheaper in August it doesn't move that fast and look if that ends up happening great I'll go shopping with you but things to know things to keep in mind so as always follow me on Instagram I hope you found this information useful let me know in the comments below what you think about what I said debate me argue with me I'd love to hear it from you and