저자: Kevin · 외국인
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증시와 부동산 폭락 가능성을 논하며 코로나 사태 중 증시는 V/U자 반등, 부동산은 4~8% 완만 하락을 예상. 증시가 부동산보다 먼저 움직인다는 역사적 패턴 제시. 현금을 쌓아 저평가 부동산과 빨간날 우량주(아마존·나이키·마이크로소프트·애플) 매수를 준비한다고 밝힘. 강의·코스 홍보 포함.
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well whole [ __ ] he's some hoax of the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down over seventeen point nine percent in March alone the SP average down over thirteen percent in March alone both of them down over 23% since their Peaks we definitely have some big discounts out there to go shopping for yet I'm kind of curious are we going to see another big dip in April our stocks gonna double dip right back into the pooper or our stocks gonna float back upwards nice and slowly and how is that going to affect real estate well today I'm going to share with you nothing other than complete speculation on my opinion so if you choose to keep watching you're just getting my take and I'll show you exactly what my plans are for my cash how I'm investing and my expectation so let's get into it kind of flattering that you would choose to stick around for some speculation from a dude that wears a shirt with a berserker helmet on it that he custom printed just so he could show off his berserker helmet alright folks obviously there's a lot of bad news out there the CDC expects over a 100,000 people passing away in the United States Donald Trump mentioned that we are expecting to go into the worst two-week period going forward now which means from April 1st essentially to April 15th we're looking at more and more bad news every single day essentially it appears that they believe these 100,000 people passing away could literally happen over the span of the next two weeks which means over the next two weeks we're gonna see nothing but doom and gloom on the news but how's the stock market already priced this in and how is this gonna affect real estate this is mean they're gonna be able more properties for sale or less properties for sale well this is where it helps to look at history in my opinion obviously real estate history in stock history can't predict the future but at least it gives us something to look at something that I found was very interesting was that real estate prices were going up between 2000 2001 kind of leading up to 2005 we saw this nice spike in real-estate prices right before the 2008 recession over here but the interesting thing that happened with real estate is because real estate so slow moving essentially we started seeing real estate prices kind of taper and start trending downwards this beginning trend started very very early in real estate and what's fascinating about it is it actually took quite a while for real estate prices to hit their bottom real estate prices did not hit their bottom until about November of 2011 which is a dramatically long real estate cycle look at this from about November of oh five to November of 11 that's about a six year real estate cycle thanks to the Great Recession now the Great Recession was obviously essentially a real estate panic foreclosures repos short sales dead people getting loans it was a full-on credit and real estate disaster but let's now go ahead and overlay stock so let's say that stocks were pretty similar there at the end of 2005 to real estate and the interesting thing that happened with stocks is stock prices sort of kept continuing to go up all the way through about the mid to end of 2007 beginning of 2008 2008 right about here so we did see you know some kind of volatility we saw a little bit of our bull trap and then we saw this plummet in stock pricing but fascinatingly by the end of 2011 a lot of the indices have recovered a dramatic amount of their values already in stocks so when we look at this very neat and clear representation of what the market did we could see that wow stocks can fall fast but they can also recover really fast we're in a real estate induced panic you get a very slow down and a very slow up which is kind of that up that we have been seeing in real estate but real estate isn't always slow see real estate prices may have bottomed at the end of 2011 but they started coming back throughout 2012 and at the beginning of 2013 a lot of real estate prices jumped up almost 15% nearly immediately the same thing happened almost in Reverse in the spring of a 2018 we're in the spring of 2018 our market was booming and all of a sudden the real-estate market got tagged a solid 12 percent and it took almost the entire next year-and-a-half to recover the values that we lost in the summer of 2018 this is because real-estate interest rates skyrocketed from rates around 4% all the way up to about five point two five percent this was along the same time as the TTP the Trump tax plan now this happened in the spring and summer of 2018 we had a solid maybe four to five months of rough time with real estate in 2018 summer a lot of flippers were losing money this was a bad time yet all of a sudden real estate starts improving and at the end of 2018 guess what happens boom the stock market gets spanked except the stock market recovers in about 45 days when the real estate market took about a solid hundred eighty days to fall and subsequently recover again possibly even more for the recovery so the point of looking back at these last sort of three hits is we can see real estate is typically slower real estate can suddenly fall if the interest rates are manipulated but usually real estate is slower to fall and slower to rise again where stocks can move very very quickly this to me is very interesting because it makes me think of institutional investors hedge funds or companies running mutual funds what do they generally want they want more people depositing money with their hedge fund we think about this practically if you and I said hey you know what let's start the meet Kevin and you know you Capital Group so we're calling it mky okay we're the mky hedge fund the only thing we really care about and he let's be real here is fees we want money and we make more money in fees at our hedge fund the more people give us money well we'll generally hedge funds and mutual funds and basic any kind of investment company attracts way more money if they can show that well look at how great we did over the last few years look at how great we did in this crash or that question don't mind that one over there but look at how great we did over here the point is large companies institutional investors hedge funds mutual funds everybody's trying to attract capital and we're no different at mky right we're trying to attract capital which it's okay because we're gonna believe that we're gonna be able to do the best for our clients and some better of a job we do for our clients the more people are gonna deposit more money with us the more money we make and it's win-win it's totally okay there's nothing wrong with this setup except here's where the problem comes in and this is why the stock market can suck and especially funds can suck and this is why I like investing my money myself funds can suck because what happens is when people start getting really sad in the marketplace and they start seeing pricing go down and then all of a sudden we start thinking to ourselves oh crap I'm holding a bag of do two worth of stocks and they're getting stinkier by the day and now my hedge fund manager is telling me oh well come on be fearful when other people are greedy and be greedy when other people are fearful we should be buying stocks I already got a bag okay I don't need another bag no and I don't want to catch you follow the knife because I want my money protected so what are you gonna do hedge fund manager you either protect my money or I'm taking my money out and that's literally what happens people get fearful and this is okay like I get fearful too well that's when the stock where it falls like 10% and 10% and 10% and the circuit breakers are tripping it's like oh gosh I know I'm supposed to be buying stocks but like when is this gonna end like if somebody could just like like bat beak and me and tell me where the bottom of the market is like that'd be wonderful then I would buy but unfortunately that doesn't happen and instead we're panicking we're freaking out and so where do we vent we vent to the hedge fund managers which means us we're picking up the phone listening to people freak out don't we're taking our money out now ASAP sell I don't care unless you start protecting my money sell so basically we now have two people calling our office people who a definitely want their money out or be people are like I'm gonna take my money out if you don't do something like do something already and that leads to more institutional trading more institutional losses and more institutional trades that take money from assets that they should be buying and holding and then they move them over into oh well this is gonna be safe we'll put it into this bond or we'll put it into this ratio of fund or this gold index in this crap or whatever you know we'll move it all back when the markets are bottom I mean it's great in theory but even amazing people that I admire like Ray Dalio who spent over one and a half billion dollars on put options still managed to lose 20% of his portfolios value during this last crisis that sucks you can bet he was getting a lot of sad people calling up so in my opinion this kind of crap is exactly why we see massive volatility in dark times this is why we see so many green days followed by massive red days and big green days followed by massive red days and it makes us just think oh my gosh where's the bottom we're trending down this is horrible this is bad oh my gosh the world's gonna end and then all of a sudden after we panic for a few weeks or sometimes a few months you start going wow I could get used to this for a while I am working from home then working in my PJs all day long yeah you know there bad things happening and not trying to talk that down at all but we start getting a little bit more counsel we get used to the bat now I'm gonna draw some conclusions at least that I'm making with stocks but I want to spend a little bit of time now talking about real estate which while I talk about real estate make sure to load up on some more educational materials so you could learn how to make money in real estate when and if prices do start trickling down you got to know how to be an expert so join me in thoss linked below it's also a course on personal finance money and sales how does real estate react in a situation like this so real estates actually interesting because in the last examples that I gave you in 2008 you know that 2013 kind of jump and that 2018 fall real estate was first real estate was the indicator for stock market crap to come and that's usually because as real estate values fall people's household wealth erodes and they feel less comfortable buying stocks so they load up on cash by selling equities aka stocks this totally makes sense it also doesn't help if big investment firms like Lehman Brothers or AIG basically go bankrupt and the government's going you live you die you live you live you live you live you live you live manova yeah you you'll even now you stay dead but interestingly in this case stocks fell first out of instantaneous fear that took over our country and this uncertainty leads to radical moves in the marketplace but real estate is much more slow-moving real estate only reacts quickly to interest rate declines otherwise real estate takes a while to react now last week I brought you a video on the real estate market and I shared my thoughts and ideas about what was going to happen in the marketplace but mostly I wanted to show you the data of what was happening in the real estate space going into this crisis and things that we should look for going into this crisis things were incredibly green and powerful for real estate unfortunately a lot of those statistics are representative of sales from December from January from from February where this crisis wasn't really in full swing yet and so what we really want to do is watch what happens to the data in April but interestingly because with the exception of interest rate shocks real estate moves so slowly real estate might not show significant damage until all of April passes heck until May passes because right now if sales data and velocity and momentum is still so strong we're also seeing essentially an equal amount of less sellers as we are less buyers which interestingly means that when properties are hitting market that are still priced appropriately they're still seeing multiple offers people are taking advantage of great deals so that all sounds good but at the same time as all that sounds good and the initial data is good and things are still okay we see FHA loan requirements going through the roof banks are starting to tighten lending standards we see people getting denied for home equity lines of credit that were initially approved we're seeing jumbo loans canceled and because of stock market declines we're seeing people's down payments obliterated to where they can't even afford to buy property anymore this isn't even to mention the amount of tenants not paying rent right now which is obviously a substantial burden on commercial real estate and a lot of rental real estate and there's also a crisis brewing and mortgage loan servicing I mean there is a crisis brewing everywhere so this has to have some kind of impact on pricing right and the easiest way to explain what my expectations are is just to show you exactly what I'm doing with my money so here's my plan for my money right now I've drawn all of my credit lines and I'm parking money from some refinances that I'm closing all in one place and while I'm keeping a larger kind of warchest available for wedge deals that is below market value real estate I'm doing something else as well now quick reminder what happens when I buy tesla stock for $500 well the price either goes up tomorrow or it goes down tomorrow but the market value today right when I buy is $500 what happens tomorrow is speculation what happens in 20 years is investing that's stocks which don't get me wrong I love stocks but an interesting difference when it comes to real estate is that today I can purchase a property for $500,000 that I know I could resell today for $600,000 and that's because of information asymmetry of real estate stocks when I type in TSLA and I press buy I do that from my phone it doesn't take a lot to do it to actually execute but when it comes to real state that means going to a property oh my gosh what's plumbing what's roofing what's electrical what flooring do I use how do I do this how do I do that how do it is there's no reason I have a separate rental renovations program from the real estate investing course because there is a massive amount of information to learn but the nice thing is that massive amount of information can pocket you some really good money because all your competition doesn't know this self people who don't watch me on YouTube and especially people who don't take the courses because I can't put everything in the courses on YouTube and I haven't even put a fraction of the content for my courses on YouTube but the people who watch this you're able to take advantage of this information asymmetry which actually lets you buy things below market value again you can't do that in stocks so in terms of my cash I'm building a war chest of cash and I already have a war chest of cash on some money coming from refinance some from credit lines so if I want to I could pay these debts off again I don't like to be too debt heavy I'm pretty conservative but the other thing that I'm doing is I'm parking this cash ready for one of two things number one always my favorite always my preference is real estate yes I mean this should be obvious by now right but I want to talk more about the number two just quick reminder yes real estate is the number one I would rather even though I never sell stocks I would rather sell stocks at a loss if it meant I could guarantee a gain in real estate because usually the gains I can get in real estate are big and instantaneous because I can qualify it like this but what about stocks and how do I piece all of this together well because stocks lead the crash and because stocks move faster than real estate I personally expect that even though right now you know we've seen this kind of exponential growth in stocks we've seen this dramatic kind of crash in stocks my expectation is it would be completely expected and reasonable for us to see either a u-shaped recovery or a v-shaped style recovery one of these doesn't really matter I think we'll get there one way or the other but at the same time as we see this recovery stocks we're gonna see this slower sort of trickle down in real estate based on fixers that hit the market I don't foresee real estate falling this dramatically I see real estate slowly getting beat up by a lack of high-quality inventory by an increase in fixer uppers I don't expect a foreclosure crisis and because of that I expect if there are going to be false my thing and this is sort of just what I've written down my expectation complete speculation here but my expectation is if this crisis continues but ends in July so let's go alright ends in July then my expectation is we might see real estate get impacted somewhere the neighborhood of four to eight percent in values know that that's really like nine to fourteen percent but because interest rates fell so much they're kind of softening the blow here a lot so as long as interest rates stay low four to eight percent if this all blows over by July ok no problem and then I wouldn't be surprised to see real estate kind of slowly pick up again but if real estate now this is an interesting one if real estate or this whole disaster ends in December well then things might be a little bit more poopy if things last till December it's quite possible that real estate might experience somewhere around that ten to twelve percent hit if things go beyond December well I mean honestly then we're just fully speculating but but that's where things are going to become substantially more painful if this lasts beyond December I don't think anybody expects this really the last be on December I honestly don't even think anybody expects this to last to December so to me that that's that's not a big concern of mine I don't see real estate values plummeting thirty percent unless we weigh blow past December especially with rates where they are I mean we would have to substantially have some massive bad news the same is actually true about the stock market if the stock market is expected to see another decline I think it will only come after some substantially further bad news I'm not saying we're 100% hit the bottom or you know marched was 100% the bottom maybe it was it could possibly be I talked about that I believe on March 25th that was that the bottom I don't know we could totally see another decline but even if we see another decline I think that's almost just gonna be another buying opportunity for us I really think that as long as this ends within the next six months this is the trajectory that we're going to see so here's what I'm doing because there's an interesting overlap built into this no matter what happens well notice what I believe here I believe that if real estate slowly trickles down stocks are going to recover somewhere around the time that potentially real estate values hit sort of a temporary bottom which what makes that very interesting to me is I have this and again totally speculative but this is where I'm putting my money because I just I process all the data I can and I just try to make the most informed decision possible it is possible that real estate pricing will be four to eight percent lower at the same time as stocks especially bounce-back stocks have substantially recovered meaning that if you were heavy in stocks and you were buying the falling knives so to speak you might be able to kind of blow up your down payment fund so to speak liquidate some stocks and go shopping for real estate when real estate is a little bit on the cheaper side now that does not mean that I am not buying now if there are good deals to be had now I will still buy them because I'm still buying twenty to thirty percent below market value if I was expecting a 30 to 40% drop in real estate I probably wouldn't buy right now but I don't think any of us think there's gonna be a 2008 real estate crash maybe maybe you do if you do think that hey take the course learn how to invest so you could go buy all the deals then I was wrong and you could buy all the deals that I can't buy then but this is to say that's not how I'm playing my hand I'm putting most of my money into cash reserves right now ready to buy I'm buying on red days my favorite blue chip companies those targets the Amazons the Nike the Microsoft and even Apple a company with an extremely high amount of cash reserves but I'm also keeping most of my money available for real estate because I do expect fixers to come on the market and I don't think there's going to be a lot of competition fighting against me which is cool so I'll buy a good deal if it comes up and I'm looking every single day for good deals I'm also reaching out to agents every single day for good deals using the tricks I always talk about but it does make you wonder should you dump some money into some really speculative stocks right now like Boeing or Carnival Cruise Lines or Darden's restaurants or Simon Property Group you know some of these are so heavily oversold that there is a potential you could put your money into a company like you know the Olive Garden chain or Carnival Cruise Line and you could see a dramatic bump in values or they'll just go bankrupt
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