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wow this is incredible for Tesla Tesla must have been reading the room because they basically reported bad numbers but gave us exactly what we wanted to hear where we wanted to hear it I was highly concerned that margin for Tesla would come in under 16% but margin X credits actually came in at 16.4% better than expected congratulations Tesla margin with the regulatory credits 17 point .4 part of that is not only because costs are falling for Tesla freight costs and input costs which is less inflationary which is good but it's also because uh Tesla is taking advantage of more vehicle credits because less of the comp competition is taking advantage of vehicle credits so there are more vehicle credits available for Tesla since they're the US manufacturer focusing on EVs and others are focusing on Eves less now the big win from these numbers from Tesla came down to the potential for more affordable Vehicles this was a really critical part of the Tesla earnings release we can actually see that on screen right here we have updated our future vehicle lineup to accelerate the launch of new models ahead of our previously communicated start date in the second half of 2025 and so basically what they're saying here is hey everyone look we heard you that you really value cheaper cars so here's what we're going to do we are going to push the uh the current production capacity from about 2.3 million all the way up to about 3 million vehicles and they didn't give us a time frame for when they want to get to 3 million vehicles but they want to get to 3 million vehicles or at least close to 3 million Vehicles before they manufacture another gigafactory so hold your breath Giga Mexico Giga India Giga whatever is probably not going to happen for a while that's going to get kicked down the road instead we're going to take that capex money and we're going to spend it on AI so we can get closer to Robo taxi and rather than waiting for the Next Generation manufacturing lineup what we're actually going to do is we're going to take what we've already bettered and we are going to make the manufacturing line more efficient now so we could bring our costs down for vehicles potentially then reduce prices also with uh as we've said before potentially these uh lower cost existing vehicles but also potentially with lower cost new vehicles so a big shift here from uh from Tesla this is very good so I do like to see this this is fantastic now what it does is it implies and we'll see in the earnings call what we get but it implies that we could end up getting getting multiple new vehicles and that is just juicy to Tesla shareholders Tesla shareholders want to hear that so great news Tesla here again Tesla read the room very very well on that uh now something else to note about uh Tesla is we did have uh the expectation that Revenue growth or production growth would be quote notably lower so that's unfortunate so that means things are probably still going to get worse wor in the realm of deliveries until they get better but at this point that might be mostly baked into the valuation of the company uh so instead they're going to continue to focus on getting those costs down stabilize their their deliveries and production and they could end up releasing more than one affordable model again we'll get clarity from Elon on the earnings call which we'll cover later now uh it's worth noting Bloomberg suggested that 87% of the car market sells above $330,000 so they and this is in the United States so they kind of suggest hey maybe you don't even really need a $25,000 car maybe you just need more variety at a $30,000 car that's entirely possible $30,000 car instead of $25,000 car now the question is when are we going to get that more affordable car well that remains to be seen and so we'll see what gets talked about in the earnings call now as far as some negatives we did have $2.5 billion of free cash flow though we do have quite a pretty penny of cash on hand and Tesla did recognize some more FSD income because they released auto park now I thought that was a little bit of a funny reason to take FSD revenues but that's what they chose to do so if you look on their balance sheet you'll actually see they've got about 26.8 billion of cash and then as far as other current assets including accounts receivables inventories and uh prepaids which I generally don't use prepaids but those do offset some cost uh we'll just do 16 point uh 16 plus 3.8 puts us at about 19.8 in receivables plus about 26.8 in cash minus 14.7 in bills to pay minus 9.2 in bills to pay uh that does if we do include receivables and uh the uh um inventory that does put us somewhere around $22 billion of available current assets if we just wanted to look at free cash to be a little bit more sort of asset test is uh this is sort of Kevin's version of it uh we're down to about $2.9 billion of cash which is not a great amount of free cash you don't actually have that much free cash at Tesla so you are doing a lot of Bill management and if you have another negative $2.5 billion quarter well let's just say that free cash is going to start dipping into receivables very quickly and while yes at this point it seems like they've got enough money to finance all their activities there could be some bumps in the road during 2024 so I don't think by any means 2024 is out of the woods but this is clearly part of the bottoming process for Tesla that the stock performance has been in and obviously the changes that are now occurring at Tesla so those are all things to pay attention to now something else to consider is if we go and we'll do a valuation model again in just a moment but I just want to make I hit the core of this report uh the again they're taking the best parts of the new production line the robo taxi they threw up some mockups of the robo tax event this was very good again we're we're not getting a disclosure on solar we're probably not getting Giga Mexico or any other Giga for the time being and they are expecting notably lower sales from 2023 this is not a surprise though at all instead uh Tesla is teasing uh this which is the robo taxi app and this would be a whole to order your Robo taxi they're throwing in estimated wait time 3 minutes uh 3 minutes away you could set the climate which is kind of cool you could set the music you could set the volume of the music this is actually kind of cool I don't disagree with this I think this is very smart I like the mockups they're just mockups so for what they are they're not extremely valuable right now until we actually go into launch mode and that is going to require the vehicles being fully autonomous and having regular ulatory approval which maybe we'll get some guidance on that in the earnings called but as of right now the stock is up 9% which is really good the expected move on Tesla stock today was 8.2% and we are nicely bouncing off some longer term Trends trend lines here uh these have been there there's some longer term support lines just below where we are depending on how you draw them some say we bounce off them nearly perfectly uh you are sitting now at about uh just above that 152 level next stop for Tesla would be really to decide are we going to stay below 160 or are we going to go back up to 170 uh so that creates some interesting opportunities and it's worth doing a quick little valuation update on Tesla so let's go get the spreadsheet and play the valuation a little bit and I'm going to change some of these numbers here just so we could play with them uh together and see where the actual value is going to come from uh from investing in Tesla I think that'll be super valuable so let's jump into doing that right now uh quick reminder we do have the courses on building your wealth with an expiring coupon code on April 30th which is the day before the expiration of the hous hack fund raise you can go to hous hack.com 2024 here's our Tesla spreadsheet house act.com 2024 be part of the Road show that begins tonight next 8 days we got a road show and then we got about a week for that next coupon exploration so let's play some numbers here what I'd like to do is actually bump the Tesla margins for 2026 I'm really optimistic about seeing some of this cost reduction though I'm going to go with two versions here I'm going to go with uh a let's go play this like this let's go move everything to 3 million Vehicles mind you that 3 million Vehicles they did say close to 3 million Vehicles so 1.8 * 1.3 1.3 that'd be about 30% production growth I don't know if we're actually going to be able to sell that many vehic so I'm actually going to Discount this a little bit I'm going to go with 25 I'm going to get rid of these headlines here we're going to go with 2.5 million Vehicles by 2026 actually you know what let's go with a lower one let's go 2250 let's go 25 million Vehicles let's go 275 million vehicles and then we'll go 3 million vehicles in our more bullish case scenario then for robo taxi revenues what I like to do is I like to do a percentage of uber so what I'm actually just going to do here is I'm going to put about $37 billion of uh of Revenue that Uber is able to make and we're just going to create or use a percentage of that so we're going to again go with uh 3 uh 37 uh billion dollars here 37 billies there we go let's go and write that in it's always entertaining writing these large numbers and then what we'll do is we'll create a percentage for each of these so this one's going to be time 0% and what I'll probably do is grab uh let's do this we'll probably go with a lower percentage for each of these other scenarios so we're going to go over here and we'll go with 075 here we'll go with 5% of uber and I think we could floor out at about 5% of uber ah we shouldn't do that well let's go with like 2 and a half% of uber there we go how much revenue we might be able to keep uh now the other thing that I'd like to do is you that I'm going to go with a 50% margin on these because you still have to make the car you're going to have to service them and we're only going to 2026 obviously in the future we expect the margin to be a lot better I also reduced energy a little bit to about a little under 8% because I'm not sure we're going to get that much growth with these higher interest rates assuming obviously we don't go into a recession everything changes if we go into a recession because interest rates will come down substantially faster now I want to run this two ways I'm going to run this one time at 18% margin and then one time I'm going to run this at uh 80% margin and you'll be able to see some differences here quick fact check we got 50% on margin for robo taxi 82% on the expenses for uh the actual vehicle sales 19% tax rate okay fantastic this gives us a price Target on the low side the bearish side with a 20% earning earnings growth of about $150 now I think that might be a little low let me see here that would yeah that's probably a little low we probably need to be closer to 25 maybe even honestly 30% Revenue growth so 30 gets a little stretchy but let's go with it let's say if I go 30% Revenue growth over here I could get to 225 2026 in the more bearish case so actually decently bullish if I stick at 20% we're kind of where our pricing is now so you kind of bottom out around this 150 level based on these fundamentals here uh and then of course everything beyond that is icing on the cake that's usually how I like to invest I like to look at my leftmost figure and then we grow from there obviously if we could get to a 30% earnings growth and we get uh the highest level of deliveries with a good margin here we're going 18% in this case we can knock on the door of that 358 again now if we can then hop on over and get margin to like 80% or something like that well then we could really get these numbers to move up even more from $250 to about $400 per share so not bad now do keep in mind this also includes FSD revenues at 18% recognition for the three most numbers it includes nothing for the leftmost number so if I include the leftmost number and I include expenses on AI oh let's see here AI FSD okay these numbers I'm sorry we're going to have to move this up uh we're going to have to move up the expenses on FSD those expenses are way too low we're going to spend way more than uh $267 Bill million on this so I'm actually going to go with honestly 50% is also probably kind of low until 2026 but let's roll with let's go with 70% expenses that's going to have our annual remember these are annual numbers annual expenses at just under $2 billion we just spent 2 and a half billion on capex uh and I think it was like a billion on AI in one quarter so I'm going to I think 70% is probably the best we really want to go here that is going to lower some of our numbers but again there's still actually pretty dang decent so I have to give credit where credits do here these are this is good and depending on what we hear from Elon here on lower cost Vehicles will really sort of dictate what direction Tesla ends up moving here uh so overall I have to say these numbers are much more impressive than feared uh I am obviously concerned about a large negative free cash flow I'm concerned about how quickly we can realistically get to robotaxi because uh that's the other thing I want you to keep in mind this model we just made does assume we're going to Robo taxi if I go in here and I go ahead and just kill robotaxi for 2026 let's say Robo taxi just doesn't fly okay uh oh and that was at 20% margin and we go back to the 18% margin this is probably your more bearish case right so 18% margin uh and and uh the um Robo taxi sector gone with a lot of FSD Revenue being spent on commute you're still at a low of about 229 unless of course the EPS growth rate sucks and then you're at a floor of about 152 so I think you floor out probably about 152 which is roughly around where the stock is trading right now so uh that's good this is definitely better than expected I'm a data person I I like these numbers now is it possible that Elon Musk is going to say something Looney on the earnings call duh is it possible that we end up going into a recession duh so uh these are things that we're going to have to contend with along with the fact that rates are likely going to stay higher for much longer than we've previously anticipated and those create some other risks for the market as well uh so uh next we're going to have the Tesla earnings call and we'll cover that next but just remember on April 30th the stocks and ssy course will have an expiring coupon code I want you to uh take a peek at one of the trade alerts we sent today uh I made some money on it as well uh and it had everything to do with this 140 line we drew 145 line we drew on Tesla and just the reject ections we were getting you can actually see us talk about this live in the course member live stream uh this morning so we do those every day the market is open so check those out uh before April 30th and email us at staff ATM kevin.com should you have any questions ra their
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