저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 실적 발표 전날, 주가가 PER 50.7배로 고평가 상태라 이익 성장률 기준 적정가는 약 123달러로 본다. 인도량 등 판매 성장이 핵심 변수이며 FSD·로보택시 가정에 따라 목표가가 109~206달러로 크게 달라진다. 최근 현금 보존 모드(감원, 광고팀 해체, 기가멕시코 보류)로 성장 스토리가 약해졌다고 평가하며 단기적으로는 여전히 약세 입장이다. 장기적으로는 낙관적이다.
다듬은 글
is it time to buy the dip on Tesla or is there a potential price Target that I have in mind for where Tesla really becomes a more juicy entry point let's talk about that in this video quick reminder we are going on an 8-day Road Show so if you want to learn more about my hous hack real estate startup you can go to hous hack.com 2024 or just press the investor tab at the top and you'll see a few things here you'll see the uh free house hack Road show you can RSVP for make sure you RSVP for this so we know how many people to anticipate uh you could get your accredited investor letter download our investor presentation or the uh sales PPM here so check that out house act.com you can just go to the main website if you wanted to and then press the little investor tab to get there that's house.com okay let's talk Tesla so obviously there are a lot of things to cover here let's just keep it straight earnings are tomorrow for Tesla this is a big deal and right now Tesla is trading at about a 50.7 PE ratio with earnings estimates for the year sitting at about $2.7 with that kind of valuation we should be growing EPS at about 35% which uh actually given that current forecast sore that we're only going to grow EPS by about 27% the downside to the stock I think based on just this valuation metric is probably $123 that's probably where we go down to to if we actually want to sit at an accurate level with where the valuation is based on where its PEG ratio should be around 1.67 so 123 is kind of a number that I'm paying attention to but there are a lot of things and this is what we have to talk about there are a lot of things that could push Tesla stock up above that 123 level or below that 123 level and a lot of it is a corally and almost solely based around deliveries I know people get exhausted when they hear me talk about just deliveries deliveries deliveries I know imagine that a car a Manufacturing Company yes with technology but actually having deliveries growth and the reason I say this is because when we jump over here to the spreadsheet first of all I had to go in here and I had to drop the price realization for FSD to $99 it's 18% realization for FSD at 99 bucks obviously I expect it to be on the lower side because you have to offset people who already own it outright International uh countries that that don't yet and might not support FSD for a while so you're really just looking at the new Fleet and some existing folks uh and you got to get that Fleet to grow the more we grow the fleet the more we can actually make from FSD revs again it goes back to deliveries but what I want you to see are these price targets here for Tesla assuming 17.5% margin and then various different levels of FSD and Robo taxi I only start pricing in Robo taxi right here at about about $3.7 billion honestly I think the $3.7 billion is is a little uh let's just say generous uh for really a 2026 Target mostly because I I think even if we have a limited small scale kind of start of FSD it probably wouldn't grow past the level of wh until at least 2027 89 somewhere in that trajectory but anyway well we'll see when we price all these various different things in here or various prices we could see uh no FSD no Robo Taxi we should be trading around uh $163 if we can get to that 327 EPS by 2026 so that'd be a 167 price Target going forward given that the current price is about 140 that actually gives us Positive Growth again about a return of about 5.9% per year going forward so now that the price is no longer in the 170s and we're 140 we're actually getting consistently positive numbers now across the board as long as we can forecast that yes we don't need FSD or Robo taxi we just need to get to those 2 and A5 million deliveries and we got to get back to growth keep in mind my earnings growth Target is about 30% uh 30 to 35% that's where you want to be that enables the 60 over here now if we're only going to be at 20% growth you're going to see these numbers fall substantially and then you go right back to negative uh you could see literally we go from a price Target in 2026 of 109 uh or we go to 12 27 if we include 18% FSD if we include some Robo taxi we go to 140 and if we can get from that uh sorry that should be 2.5 million Vehicles there we go 2.5 million Vehicles if we get to 3.1 million Vehicles we can get up to 166 but what we really need is growth of earnings and deliveries drive that at least for right now deliveries drive that massively because again the more deliveries we get the more we can enhance the level of SD Revenue we're getting and uh likely the trust for robo taxi and the expansion of that would network more deliveries wins across the board I'll just show you this on the extreme here we go over here 166 on the high side for 2026 at 20% growth if I jump this up to 4 million Vehicles you'll see a nice move over here where we actually go to $26 so I pull that back out and I go right back to where we were which was the uh 3.1 level 3.1 level I mean you're looking at a huge difference here $40 price difference 166 to 206 deliveries drive this just just an extra 900,000 vehicles and I I realize that it's not just that it's an auto company but it's the fact that the more Autos we deliver the more FSD we get and again the more trust we get on the robo taxi system because the more data it collects the more practice it gets everything wins from more more more production the problem is we're probably not going to hear anything optimistic in the earnings call tomorrow about actually building out Giga Mexico Giga Mexico was supposed to undergo a substantial expansion thanks to the model 2 ramp with a compact car ramp well and that's also based on an interview that uh Elon Musk did with Sandy Monroe where he suggested hey he's working on the line almost every single week and he sees massive progress on the new production line and and that production line will get sampled in Austin first and then it'll go to Giga Mexico well the fact that now Giga Mexico is on the back burner we're delaying potential expansion to other countries like India laying trips over there for whatever reason uh and we're not really expanding the company we're actually going into Cash preservation mode a lot of folks are worried that deliveries are the number one thing that is going to slow us down even in the face of strengthening FSD so obviously that's what everybody's concerned about right now the company does feel very much to be in cash preservation mode and that makes me a little nervous for the next topic which would be free cash flow we really need free cash flow to stay positive that's operating cash less Investments like AI chips or factories ramping Giga Texas ramping Giga Berlin we do not not not not not not want to see negative free cash flow that would be very bad tomorrow in earnings uh and given that we're seeing such cost cutting here in April which is in Q2 there are some people who believe we're going to get a very disgusting free cash flow negative surprise uh next uh uh you know in the earnings call tomorrow and that would be very bad I I would not cheer that at all I would not look forward to that uh because I think it would be very bad to the stock or for the stock and for the company because it potentially be gets the question of okay is Tesla going to have to raise money that you don't want to hear about you want to hear companies doing BuyBacks when the stock is falling not trying to raise money when the stock is falling right so uh this would be an issue now we did just see obviously quite a few cash preservation plays from Elon Elon for example uh is expected to have laid off about 20,000 individuals in the latest round of Cost Cuts given that this is a company of 140,000 you're probably looking at about 14.2% 14.3% across the board and we just lost the ad which you might remember but it was last year right around this time that at the shareholder meeting I asked Elon Musk why don't you promote these wonderful things that Tesla does whether it's the special safety that other cars aren't doing or the features that other cars aren't doing why don't you promote these things and tell everybody else about this by advertising and he responded to me and said well we'll try a little advertising and give it a shot yeah today he cut the entire ad team and one of his complaints was that the ads felt too generic like they were too uh like they could have been basically any uh uh car and that they didn't specifically speak to the features of Tesla which is actually what originally Elon agreed to trying advertising on is speaking to the features of Tesla specifically and not trying to be generic like a car company one of the way and here you could see that uh that tweet uh the ads were far too generic could have been any car company so it's unfortunate the vision was sort of distorted a bit what I actually did last year is I uh came up with a strategy for uh Tesla uh ads and we actually made a few Tesla ads as samples and what we did is we really wanted to contrast Tesla to other vehicles hey here's how we compare to the Rav 4 we basically took some inspiration from I'm a Mac and I'm a PC and we just ran some ads totally for free just well like post them to to show people hey look you know here's how we would do it and it was like I'm a Tesla I'm a Rav 4 and we would compare the features and the pricing and specs and try to find a fun way to really educate people just like the old I'm a Mac versus I'm a PC ads I thought that was a great strategy and I think that would have been a great direction for them to go of course I'm not there running the company or a part of the company so all I could do is sort of give suggestions and then if people take advantage of those great if they don't no problem so uh the second thing that I really thought Tesla needed was a spokesperson that was not Elon somebody that uh you know elon's divisive we know that a lot of people absolutely love Elon the odds are more most people watching this video really like Elon they respect Elon but maybe maybe some people agree he's he's a little one-sided in his political opinions uh we've already talked about this before other analysts say that oh well for every person Elon pisses off he'll find a new like uh you know a new new follower the problem with that idea is it's not necessarily true because you have to wait the odds that those people are going to buy a Tesla right so let me just just be blunt here if you lose a Democrat and you gain a republican did you net grow stay the same or lose and my opinion is you have to weigh the odds of a Democrat buying an EV versus a republican buying an EV I'm not saying there aren't Republicans who don't own EVS I know there are I'm just saying if uh a a republican is only 20% likely to buy an EV and a Democrat is 80% likely to buy an EV well then if I lose 10 Democrats then I'm down eight potential buyers and I gain 10 Republicans then I'm up two potential buyers so I'm now at a net loss of six so even though like hey I I you know lost 10 followers and I gained 10 followers you actually net loss sex buyers right so you have to you have to consider statistics when when people are actively talking against potentially your political persuasion it's very difficult by the way to be neutral on the internet most people will fall in the Trap of just only going either I'm only going to you know tweet or follow or talk about the left I'm only going to Tweet or follow or talk about the right uh I think I take a very challenged approach by going as much in the middle as possible everybody tries to guess my biases or whatever it doesn't really matter I I really try my best to just stay in the middle and try to stay out of uh picking sides in politics mostly because I like even though you could win really well just leaning in on one side that's just not me I don't do that i' like to see both sides so uh anyway so this is an interesting comment about the ads another thing oh yeah regarding this this sort of spokesperson for Tesla I think Tesla really need somebody like a Taylor Swift or uh you know Ry Reynolds or or somebody that's the face to do that sort of like I'm a Mac versus I'm a PC style ad and really I I think that would be so great because then you would finally make the face of Tesla not Elon which we know it's so connected it's done so well under Elon but not the last few years it's it's not been good right uh so I wonder if there's a way you could get a neutral uh face especially someone like a Taylor Swift that can make this a lot uh easier this by the way was the ad that we did won't play it here but we did uh Tesla's first advertisement I'm a Tesla versus I'm a Rav 4 uh and so we uh we talked about the uh the benefits and the pricing uh and the differences between the two um people really seem to enjoy it and like it but uh anyway so um you know having a neutral person like that I think would be possible I also think it would be very likely to I mean think about Taylor Swift she she's got these concerts going all across the world who's sponsoring now I think it's like it's Capital One sponsors like everything Capital ones on all the mugs all the banners all the tickets the badges everything and that's a very expensive ad campaign but uh you know from our point of view but even if it was hundreds of millions of dollars this could potentially be some of the most effective ads especially since some argue that uh Swift fans lean more left uh which is your demo anyway and we know she's willing to do ads I mean she signed her contract with FTX for example she was going to promote FTX at all her concerts uh you know branding signage or whatever uh S bankman free just didn't sign her contract back counter sign it until the company fell apart so it shows you uh just how broad uh that company's uh influence was but um boy you know uh it doesn't sound like we're going in that direction because instead we're going into Cash preservation now this is a little bit concerning because yesterday I discussed how uh I made this analogy and I didn't mean to compare it to Tesla at all but I made this analogy where I said you know there's the story of the father uh who's running a store off a freeway and they have a big billboard on the freeway and the college educated son says father we're going into a recession you better cut spending and so the father cut suspending by by removing the billboard and sure enough the business fails because your revenues collapse and then they have to lay people off and whatever somebody made a comment this morning they like maybe the father was Tesla you know maybe the father was Elon Musk Elon daddy we're going into a recession and he's been of this mindset that the Federal Reserve has really had the boot on the neck of the economy for a long time which makes sense interest rate sensitive stock uh so you have this risk factor that elon's going in cash preservation mode which is okay maybe maybe we'll spend on AI but uh let's cut expenses on Giga Mexico or creating a new Giga or even expanding some of the lines in Berlin or Texas let's cut staff let's cut advertising cut cut cut cut cut to survive what could end up being a recession I'm of the mindset that if we have some if we have a bad earnings week this week we could have a self-fulfilling recession that comes and so from one point of view he's actually doing a smart thing he's preserving cash in the face of a potential recession which is very scary because if you go into recession that's you know how companies can go bankrupt and so I don't think Tesla is going to go bankrupt but cash preservation is not what people want to hear about if there's not a recession they want to hear growth and I don't think there's a growth story to be heard until we get through this hard time and people are just now going to start waking up again to the idea that the Federal Reserve interest rate trajectory is probably a Miss we've been rallying until about the middle of March beginning of April in markets across the board despite the fact that rate cut bets are coming down well the fed's going to matter again I mean coming May 1st we have jpow again May 1st by the way is also the deadline to invest in house Haack read the solicitation at house hack.com 2024 uh and make sure you don't a us a few of y'all have been aing us and that doesn't work because we don't get enough information so then they have to bounce back and then it takes multiple days and you have to send a wire anyway you got a wire anyway so thank you though for for investing so um deliveries are obviously an issue margin you know a lot of people Wall Street seems to think we're going to be in the 16 17 range came we we wrote sort of a spreadsheet on like you know what's bullish what's bearish uh and and uh some ideas around Tesla one of the big things that we wrote down was hey we want to see margins over the 15 handle but we did just get Troy teslik suggest that he thinks margins are going to come in at 14.6 which is not great uh that would be very very bad and that's mostly because margins drive into free cash flow so you really want to see positive free cash flow margin over 15% and you want to hear some positive growth commentary unfortunately we're probably only going to get Robo taxi commentary which I know a lot of people are very excited about Robo taxi and even Ed llows like hey look they're they're renting some really cool neural Nets in New York that have really good progress and the progress is incredible and that you know even Elon Musk mentioned on Twitter the the or an ex the FSD that we see on the street is like 3 to 6 months old so when we get a new version it's like 3 to 6 months old and they're on the bleeding edge of FSD but Elon Musk said something that I thought was actually very important uh and and he mentioned that you know yes what you have on the street is probably 3 to 6 months old and part of that is because when uh you have uh these new artificial intelligence models come out you end up getting uh FSD that's better in certain cases like it will have several breakthroughs but then dozens of bugs where it performs much worse and then it takes a few months to fix those bugs so the problem with that is it's very challenging to continue to train these neural Nets over and over again and then you're fixing some problems but you're cre creating other problems we got to get rid of creating the other problems now one of the ways you can do that is training with more data well guess what that requires a larger Fleet it requires more people on FSD and guess what it requires more computing power well to stay ahead of your competitors you're probably going to have to jump from the h100s to nvidia's latest chip or maybe the next Generation chip pretty soon so you're probably going to have to regularly go through these Nvidia upgrade cycles and keep buying the latest and greatest chips because if Tesla you know has a competitor that all of a sudden gets their hands on a good set of data or they steal it from Tesla the data or you know they buy it from Nvidia or or whatever the Chinese figure it out whatever if somehow the the data is being collected through nvidia's or in chips or whatever and that can be licensed out and then somebody else some other schmuck buys a bunch of Blackwell chips and and starts training well that is a risk factor now I don't think it's highly realistic because you know Tesla's data is so Centric to the cars and specific to the cars uh it's so you probably have a moat there but at some point if you have these Nvidia orange chips and cameras on other cars somebody is going to collect all of that data and that data is going to be very very valuable even if the data collector themselves doesn't use it like a bunch of companies collect the data and then sell it and license it to some other FSD Building Company that data has a lot of value heck maybe even Elon Musk will sell some of the data which would be shooting yourself in the foot because then you'd be giving away your mode I don't think you should do that I I also wasn't the biggest fan of giving away the mode on the supercharger Network because quite frankly now you made it acceptable to own any other EV when quite frankly you had such a glorious moat to only own a Tesla because the other supercharger networks suck and now you're also kind of harming the availability of superchargers for Tesla owners because well now there are more people clogging the spots you know you're going to have more demand before you have more infrastructure and so you're just going to go through years of longer Waits at the supercharger networks and as a customer I feel a little slapped in the face by that now I don't really use the supercharger networks because I barely drive so which I'm grateful for I really despise driving but uh yeah I mean that's that's certainly a consideration now another consideration too is elon's comp plan now elon's comp plan is coming up for vote most of the Tesla Bulls are arguing that oh well if elon's comp plan is uh is denied then he's going to quit Tesla and Tesla will be leaderless and whatever whatever whatever I don't I don't think he'll quit Tesla I think they'll just come up with a new comp plan which honestly at this point is a very real reality given that Tesla's market cap sitting around 450 right here 450 billion you've already lost the last three tranches of of elon's comp plan actually last four tranches over here you you're teetering on losing the fifth trunch so uh a lot of people are saying well Elon should be paid what he's owed because this plan was you know approved by 73% of shareholders uh and that's fine I'm not here to take a stance on it I'm just here to say uh and I know some people like Kevin you should be advocating for the comp plan and other people are like oh Elon shouldn't get the comp plan that's free money the judge said it wasn't fair I'm not taking a position on this uh I I don't think it's uh my obligation to advocate for for or against this I think it's really up to you to determine this uh I think that uh people should read the judge's decision they should read what the comp plan was and then they should make their own decision right I actually went through the judge's decision uh Elon Musk meet Kevin 50 billion Compensation Plan judge uh I did a whole video breaking it down yeah here it is uh the it's a 53 minute uh long video we did this right here it's Elon loses $55 billion pay package Tesla stock down now you can see Tesla stock was down over here at 187 so quite a bit higher this was a couple months ago and I actually went through the comp plan and explained the different aspects of that lawsuit so you can understand what actually is in there uh and you can see some live commentary as well you could see some of my thesis on this uh so so this this is you know I I think some a pretty good video to watch and then you could see sort of the thoughts and questions that I have in terms of realities if you're interested in that I don't think it's worth regurgitating here because it would just take too long I've already spent enough time on it so uh then uh you know I do think we're you know EPS is expected to come in at 52 cents Troy thinks it'll be 46 cents some people think it'll be a little higher I think the biggest wild cards honestly for tomorrow are going to be how much does Elon Musk brag about Robo taxi uh how close it is that could move the needle of the stock uh I do expect that he's going to ignore commentary about deliveries and expectations for the future growth of the company mostly because he'll probably just sort of blame Jerome Powell and then move on but the idea of this purpose built Robo taxi instead of a $25,000 car A lot of people are debating about this and they're freaking out about this some people are like well what if it's both the robo taxi and the 25k car and other people are like no he's only going Robo taxi and he's killing the 25k car and and then other people are like they were always the same thing look I don't think it really matters what was or like what what we speculate now I think what matters most is what is and what matters most in my opinion is that you do have a mass Market vehicle so you can increase deliveries increase growth of earnings for the company get more fsds on the road and therefore have more training data and promote the company's growth that way so I'm a big fan of a cheaper car 25k car I'm a big fan of that uh and a new 25k car like you know I'm not talking about like a used model 3 that sells for 25k I'm talking about a new uh uh compact car that sells in that 25k range I think that's a game changer for Tesla and that was priced into Tesla uh and I think that should be if it's built on the same platform as robotaxi fantastic but it should uh they should both exist if that idea is dead and basically the new model of vehicle is only the robo taxi well now we have to kick the can down the road on earnings for multiple years and as a very long-term investor it doesn't matter but as a short-term investor is it going to hurt yeah you know the more Elon talks tomorrow about you know we're we're not focused on a new vehicle right now we're just focused on all in on Robo taxi and uh you know I don't think I think he'll say something like today is not the day for product announcements come back on August 8th that's because he you know you really want to kick the Hope can down the road so the stock doesn't completely sell off because if he gave everything today the stock would just tank even more or on earnings call but uh you know it would be nice to see what's going on with gigga Mexico what's going on with Manufacturing in Giga Texas and uh and and are we actually still trying to grow production or are we just trying to fill up that demand pool right now right now it seems to be fill up the demand pool so what we're seeing are interest rate subsidies and price Cuts again which that's why the stock's down 3 and half% today because you know we had this price increase on April 1st people were like Yay the bottom for Mar Marin is in and then we get a $2,000 price cut which you know there were a couple two $1,000 price increases so you're basically the same but again it goes to show wow okay back to the old method no advertising and uh no uh you know no price increases instead its price Cuts now you do have some people on uh Twitter or X that are like well uh what a surprise uh Twitter or um Tesla starts advertising and uh they have the worst quarter ever I don't think that's one and the same like I I don't think you can argue that because they advertised their delivery sucked even more I don't think that's realistic uh I mean unless their advertising was like offensive right like I I think the biggest driver is is really just you have this big pull forward of people buying electric vehicles when interest rates are low and there are some people left over who hadn't bought yet and now they're they've bought and now you're just running out of buyers at at these high interest rates so I think that's why Tesla is trying to focus on getting interest rates down by doing interest rate buy downs but again that's expensive that costs Tesla money so they're just sort of reallocating where they're trying to spend their money uh so you know everybody can argue about the ads whether they were good or bad or this out or the other the one thing we can say I think with certainty is they're in cash preservation mode and again for a Growth Company it it's not great you you're you're not Growth Company when you're in cash preservation mode uh and so hopefully hopefully uh that uh that long-term changes and uh I'm very optimistic for Tesla in the very long term but um short term I'm still barish you know I thought I would have re-bought by now honestly but the news just keeps getting worse so I'm curious to see what will happen with earnings I do think uh with earnings I mean it almost feels like you're going to have a big move up or a big move down which kind of makes spread seem somewhat interesting but I don't know now what I do know is with certainty tomorrow we will be beginning the investor Road Show for house hack so if you want to learn more and you've got questions you're an accredit investor make sure you get your accredited investor letter from invest ready the deadline to invest is May 1st that is coming up very soon that's jpow day it's next week so in other words we're closing this round in a week uh and we're doing a little road show you can ALS o download our investor presentation this is obviously very different from investing in stocks it's investing in in a private real estate uh company that we think can be bigger than uh you know Open Door uh Invitation Homes American home for rent American homes for rent uh roof stock fundrise all of that we think we can blow it all out of the water no guarantees obviously so read the risk factors and the disclosures and nd I will be covering Tesla earnings live so we'll see you there goodbye why not advertising
Comments 0