저자: Kevin · 외국인
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Affirm(AFRM)가 실적 발표 후 매출 상회·가맹점 수 급증(11,500→29,000)으로 주가 약 20% 급등. 발화자는 Affirm을 '테슬라 같은 금융 기업'으로 평가하며 보유 지속과 추가 매수 의향을 밝힘. Amazon 파트너십 기대감을 강조하나 아직 테스트 단계. 60만 달러 투자 중 상당 부분을 헤지(풋·커버드콜)했음을 공개하고, 헤지 손실 가능성을 언급. 개인 재무 측면에서는 할부 소비 확대를 부정적으로 봄.
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hey everyone me kevin here let's talk about a firm a firm just destroyed earnings today absolutely crushed it the stock is up 20 in after hours i've got 600 000 invested into this stock and even though i hedged my position in this stock i am jumping up and down because this is such a phenomenal company and i could not be more excited with what happened here so first what i'm going to do is i'm going to give you a quick synopsis of what a firm is i've already done a very detailed video on why i'm investing in a firm so i'm not going to rehash all of that i'm going to give you a quick little synopsis i'm going to talk about what happened with earnings today what changed for the future and what my position is now going forward as an investor am i going to make any changes what's my perspective what am i going to do okay ready let's go first a firm is a buy now pay later platform basically it's trying to replace your usage of a credit card now i'm gonna preface my explanation of a firm by saying i personally think anytime you buy something you should pay it off the same month you buy it you should not buy an ipad and then buy it and pay later for it i think you should pay it off in the same month you buy it the same thing with a peloton the same thing with really anything but real estate the only thing i want to see you making payments on is real estate okay that is from me from a personal finance perspective okay now i'm gonna take away or sort of put on a shelf my own belief of what you should do with your personal finances and now we're gonna put our investor hat on and look at a company that's making a ton of money a killing in terms of money by offering people a more more affordable option than a credit card and that's called buy now pay later so for example if you want to buy an amazon fire tv in the future since the firm just announced a partnership with amazon which is currently in the testing phase we don't have a lot of details about it and that's part of the crazy part is a firm is skyrocketing without even having any revenue projections on the affirm amazon partnership which is nuts but anyway let's say you want to buy a new amazon tv 500 bucks hey do you want to pay that 500 now on a credit card and potentially pay 20 interest on your credit card or would you rather make monthly payments or payment every two weeks for 25 or 12 dollars and 50 cents and just make those payments for you know 20 periods or 40 periods or whatever spread your purchase out over multiple monthly installments for absolutely zero interest well a lot of people are gonna go uh yeah sure sign me up for that zero interest as long as i make those payments i can have that new tv let's go what's gonna happen amazon sales are gonna go up my expectation people are gonna spend way more money this is why on the personal finance side of things i think it's a very very bad idea to do this because you're going to spend way more money but from an investor point of view i'm like oh my gosh people are going to spend more money on amazon amazon's growth is going to go up and a firm is going to partner in that growth a firm is like a cheap way to get your hands on growth at amazon and we're going to talk about moats and competition in a moment but i've been wanting to get my hands on amazon growth for a very long time but the problem is it's like a trillion dollar plus company and it's kind of like a goliath like law of large numbers makes it really hard to move a firm is a 24 billion dollar company in the grand scheme of things it's still half the cost of coinbase okay and coinbase ain't even doing that hot right now so i'm very very excited about a firm i'm so overly excited one of the folks who works with me says kevin i've not seen you this excited about stock a stock since tesla and that's kind of because in my opinion this is the tesla of finance uh and and like even more so than sofi or the other companies that that i'll like sell puts to get into or whatever this is something where i'm like no no i really really really like this this is great now why why do i like it well again the reason i think people are going to go nuts for using this service is because as long as you make the timely payments that is you agree to make 20 monthly payments to to pay something off and you don't need an extension you don't pay any interest it's super transparent about that you don't pay interest if you make your payments which is awesome that's going to make more people sign up for this people pay interest if they need more time or extensions and there are no late fees but then you pay interest if you need more time right if for whatever reason uh you pay it off you don't pay any interest so it's a win-win for you but it's also a win for a firm because rather than your credit card taking that 2.9 processing fee every time you swipe your card a firm takes that processing fee so a firm makes money off the transaction upfront and then if you pay interest in the future they'll make money off that interest if you end up needing to pay interest those are their two primary sources of revenue but one of the reasons i call them the tesla finance is they just recently announced an affirm savings account and all they did was do a little on their app they're the affirm app and they got 600 million dollars in savings account deposits and i'm like whoa okay they spent literally zero dollars and got a ton of savings deposits hold on let me just make sure really quickly that was six oh i'm sorry 300 million i overstated that a little bit and then i started thinking about it in my head i'm like wait a minute that was that was the wrong number sorry 300 million dollars in deposits sorry about that but anyway 300 million dollars of deposits and they spent zero dollars in advertising that's like tesla it's crazy but what's also crazy is their future projections for new products so consider this i went into their earnings call and i read through their earnings called transcript and what they really want to do is they want to get people off of ever using credit cards they call this a credit card alternate which people in general don't like credit cards credit cards have a bad reputation now a lot of us on youtube are like ah but you can get your credit card rewards points whatever most people in society don't think credit cards are a good thing now the downside is it's kind of like you're signing up for a reverse debt snowball because you're just building up more and more debt and you're probably likely to spend more money but that's a personal finance problem that's not a firm problem right so like this to me makes me want to use a firm to sell for example my courses linked in the description down below like you if you check out through paypal on my courses you can make payments over like four monthly payments or you can make installment payments with paypal but i really wanna firm because if you could use that forty percent off coupon code that's expiring on september 24th and use that coupon code to get hundreds of dollars off pay off that over 24 payments instead of four payments like with paypal that's awesome like i really want a firm this is great so i think every merchant's going to want to use a firm and we're seeing merchant numbers explode at a firm it's really really cool but this is really cool what they're saying here look at this the next frontier at a firm is the unbundling of daily spend including groceries restaurants and incidental purchase purchases excuse me like they literally want you to have an affirm debit plus card to where when you make transactions you can link your bank account to this card and you could choose do i just want to pay it in full now or do i want to buy now pay later whatever transaction like i could literally see people going to a fancy restaurant a couple hundred bucks i don't know uh go to the lure fish house or whatever and get yourself a bottle of wine or whatever right and then make payments on that dinner over like 18 installments like what it's it's again personal finance wise horrible company wise this is insanely brilliant because you could just put everything on your firm card and then go on the app and go yeah i'll buy now pay later that okay i'll pay that in full now i'll pay later that i'll pay later that i'll pay later that and it's just like that has not even been priced in yet because they're just now testing this app and this in my opinion it and they're just now coming out with this credit card this in my opinion is not even considered by wall street right now it's totally insane i'm so so so so excited uh about a firm i i gotta i gotta dampen my expectations a little bit here because i'm too excited but let's do this i gave you a little bit of an overview of a firm here and some crazy things going on let's now look at numbers really quickly and then let's look at the future but i'm going to keep numbers brief and basic because numbers get boring really easily okay all right so first it's worth noting that only seven only nine percent of a firm's revenue actually came from pay uh from peloton uh this quarter which is really good because everybody originally saw a firm as just a peloton company but it's much more than that in fact if you look at their product mix right now they literally do a bit of everything which is really good look at this fashion beauty sporting goods equipment other home lifestyle travel ticketing electronics look at this pie chart like this is a very very very nicely diversified pie chart i really like this and then in terms of the actual transactions 38 of the transactions that they're doing right now are zero percent interest which most of them start at zero percent interest but if you need to extend uh they go into interest bearing there are also cases where i believe if if your credit doesn't meet the requirement for zero percent i believe you could also be uh you know have an interest bearing account or an interest bearing loan but uh i have not gone through that process myself because my credit is frozen and i can't sign up for the darn offer map i gotta unfreeze my credit i highly recommend you freeze your credit if you type into youtube meet kevin credit freeze you'll learn all about it it's highly important very very safe thing to do uh and it's free to do well in california it's free to do in some states it costs ten dollars per bureau to do it and then ten dollars again to unlock watch the video uh but anyway the what's really really exciting is not so much the numbers this quarter because the numbers this quarter came in decently look revenue beat expectations it came in at 261.8 million versus the 226 million expected so you had a beat on revenue loss came in a little larger than expected at 48 cents per share versus 29 cents expected and that initially led the stock to actually go down but when people realized that the loss was only wider than expected because of stock-based compensation which is like paying their employees like a one-time kind of bonus or whatever uh the stocks skyrocketed it went up 20 and the reason for that is they went from 11 500 merchants in quarter one to 29 000 merchants in q2 that's almost a 3x that's insane they are the provider for shop pay which is a shopify the shopify network if people want to check out with shop pay a firm does that it's branded as shot pay but a firm does that their transactions per active customer are flat from q1 but a year over they're up from two transactions per customer to 2.3 and once they roll out that debit plus card i expect this to go to like five on average i think this is gonna double people are gonna get addicted to using this i think it's gonna be very bad for people's personal finances but in terms of like and there's like this a little bit of like that ethical balance but like people who are going to borrow like that i personally think are better off borrowing with a firm than using a credit card so i think if anything that might be a justification for saying like that's okay a firm's okay but look this is gonna be dangerous for people people are to load themselves up with so many monthly payments it's going to be nuts again personally don't recommend that but i also don't recommend buying a tesla and i'm a big investor in tesla that's because i don't think you should waste your money on a stupid car but people are going to do it anyway like i keep seeing all these instagram posts of like really young people who finally just got their first thirty thousand dollars and they blow it all on a tesla model three and i'm like should've bought the stock instead but whatever whatever anyway uh they're active customers they literally exploded exploded in q2 they had a 31.4 gain they went from 5.4 million monthly active users to 7.1 their gross uh merchandise volume didn't go up that much it went up from 2.3 to 2.5 billion which works out to about 8.6 we are seeing average ticket volume come down which is actually a good thing because you don't want a firm to only be considered that thing you use for high ticket purchases like a peloton bike you want it to be like your everyday driver like oh 100 bucks let me divide that into 10 interest repayments right that's really what you want to see a firm because you want a firm to have more transactions you want a firm to be used for like everything there was a survey that was reported in cnbc where they mentioned that they did a survey and asked amazon users hey would you use a firm for your amazon purchases and 20 of people who responded said they were very likely to use it and combined 50 percent of people said they were very likely or likely to use a firm in the survey that's because there is no buy now paid later option right now with amazon you could just have the credit card uh gift card or bank account that you can pay through and amazon tends to keep their checkout process pretty simplified to where i would not expect them to have multiple different by now pay later vendors i think they're going to test this which is what they're doing now negotiate a deal with amazon and the gross merchandise revenue that or volume that a firm processes is literally just going to explode it's going to be insane i'm very excited about this in my first video where i broke down the firm financials i mentioned that amazon okay get this okay amazon well let me give you a better comparison first peloton sold like 600 million dollars in bikes in the last quarter about a billion dollars in bikes in the first quarter walmart has online sales of around 13 billion dollars per quarter okay so just combined that's like 14 billion dollars just walmart and peloton right amazon does 54 billion 54 billion that's like 4x in quarterly rev and that was just last quarter that's not even like the holiday season like this is insane and this is going to ramp up for the holiday season okay like i am jumping up and down over this company so those give you some of the numbers in terms of why the numbers are so exciting right now and none of their forecasts which their forecasts are just mind-blowing very very good forecasting numbers none of their forecasts at this point include any kind of growth expected on uh on amazon and they are expecting in fiscal year 2022 which starts now actually they go from july to july messy calendar but anyway their expected year-over-year gross merchandise uh value they're expecting a growth of 50 based on forecasting not including amazon which is just like they are growing insanely this is why i threw 600 000 into this company now i'm going to talk about my hedge in just a moment but i want to say this is very very good they're uh they're advertising revenue oh yeah this was interesting their amount of advertising not advertising revenue but the amount of advertising that they spent that was slightly up uh but oh here you go they increase their marketing spend their sales and marketing spend by six percent per quarter so quarter over quarter they spent six percent more on marketing but they doubled their revenue which is really good like what you don't want to see is like a 30 increase in advertising and a 10 increase in revenue right that would be really bad return they're doubling right now just we want to make sure that's sustainable but this is very very very good going through the rest of their earnings call notes they mentioned they're really in the early stages of their partnership with amazon they're still testing they expect peloton to moderate in terms of sales i have 100 sold out of peloton i sold out of 98 of my shares before their last earnings when they fell i sold the rest today because they had soared a little bit and the reason for that is uh price is going down sales going down before even this earnings call we already knew their sales were going down uh before the peloton earnings we knew their sales were going down their website traffic's down their search trends are down like everything's down i'm not saying palatal's not a good company but they're very pricey for growth that they're losing right now coming out of this pandemic and i'd way rather throw all my money into a firm like this is very very very exciting to me they're still testing with uh amazon so there's still some work to do i think they're gonna have a moat with amazon because i don't think amazon's gonna bring anybody else in and i don't think that amazon is going to replace a firm if anything they would just buy a firm out but i don't think they want to be in finance quite frankly that's why they've been outsourcing again they brand themselves as being the replacement for credit cards and now i'm going to talk now that we've kind of gone through uh sort of an intro in terms of what's going on we've gone through how they work the numbers projections for the company in terms of growth we're expecting let me now just touch on my game plan for the company then we're going to wrap this up all right so my game plan right now easiest thing to do honestly is just pull it up i have a couple options contracts on this which are not going to do very well but i have a ton of shares on this so i'm going to show you what i have okay so let's pull up a firm right here there we go okay perfect so we're gonna throw this up on screen so you can see exactly i'm a big fan of being a hundred percent transparent with my audience so this is just my weeble account right here so at the very top you're gonna see i bought a dave buster's call option you're going to see that right here ish if i can figure out how to place my hand right there that's going to print attendees tomorrow that's 30 thousand dollars it's already up five grand tomorrow when the market opens because the stock's up like six percent this is probably gonna be up like fifteen thousand dollars in total which is great because i'm going to lose a lot of money right here on these two things i have a firm covered stock and then a firm put i know why would i have a firm put because i was hedging i hedged my position on a firm because i swore to myself people are going to be overly optimistic about the amazon revenue and we're not going to have any amazon revenue here yet they're probably not going to talk about amazon revenue and i was right they barely talked about amazon they said no guidance on amazon still testing amazon no details on amazon but even without amazon they crushed it they totally crushed it so my hedge options here are going to lose money tomorrow uh a lot of money uh i expect this where is it uh see this 29 000 uh put right here i expect that to uh probably be negative twenty thousand dollars tomorrow and i expect my covered call right here instead of being positive twenty two thousand dollars to probably be negative twenty thousand dollars or at least negative ten thousand dollars or something like that so i expect to be down somewhere around 20 to 40 000 tomorrow on my affirm contracts uh i'll be up about 15 on my uh dave buster's contract but look at the stock and the stock has already updated because of after hours the stock's up 107 grand that's amazing and a lot of that here and after hours so the stock is up to is up 107 000 a ton of that up right now and uh look i'll take a hundred grand and then shave you know 20 or 30 or even 40 off as part of my hedge that just didn't work the put and the call they didn't work so i don't mind closing those out now if i get exercised on the call that'd be best case scenario but they're not going to do that that would be stupid because they'd give up all their extrinsic value so what i am planning to do is i'm planning to tomorrow see if we get any kind of drop in this 20 gain on a firm stock and if the stock goes down at all i'll close my options i'll just ta i'll close my options at that point it's possible some enthusiasm will wear off by monday and maybe the stock drops more close out the options then it is however also possible that a firm just stabilizes and strengthens because personally i'm very excited about a firm i don't really care that my hedge didn't work because the stock did great like i am way up on the actual stock on weeble here and i'm going to throw more money at this company i would be willing to take uh the other cash balance that i have in uh probably an m1 finance i've got about 300 000 over m1 finance and then i've got a cash balance of about 200 000 at weeble i'm willing to take that and potentially just throw it into a firm and just buy and hold all this stock this is not a stock that i really want to play options with anymore i i hedged my position shouldn't have done it but that's just the nature of hedging hedging look if the stock went down i would have lost a bunch of money on the shares but i would have printed attendees on the options right the stock went up i'm making more money net net so it's still a win-win i'm very bullish on the stock i was just not excited about this earnings i thought this earnings would have been bad i was wrong so i recognize i make mistakes sometimes but uh hey big scheme of things this is best case scenario the company that i went really heavy on is crushing it i am up on my position like really nicely up in my position and i want to make this one of my top five stocks i'm very excited here i really hope i'm not getting too emotionally involved i don't think i am because if i was so emotionally involved i wouldn't have hedged this stock in the first place because i would just be like oh no i'm all in on that stock right i just wouldn't have hedged it like i try to be reasonable with my investments to kind of protect from both sides again in this case best case scenario happened i made more money this the company i believed in so much is doing very very well uh i just like tampering or sort of tempering my my enthusiasm but by also taking advantage of hey if i could sell a call and make some money then i'll do that so we'll see what happens in the stock i'm really gonna monitor this over the next few weeks i am tempted to potentially just buy say a hundred hundred fifty thousand dollars tomorrow just to increase my share position a little bit and maybe if it dips next week or in the next few weeks if we get dips especially if we get back under 100 just kind of keep bumping this position so i could get this position to a seven figure position because what we heard today very excited very very excited about this company long run uh i'm more excited about this than any company that i've been excited about with the exception of hippo we got pretty excited about hippo that's done very very very well too like the last few big plays have just been absolutely phenomenal so very excited as usual if you want to know all of my trades everything i'm doing all my hedges everything i'm doing with options crypto whatever join stocks and psychology money link down below use that coupon code and folks we'll see you next week
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