저자: MeetKevin · 외국인
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AMC 광고 캠페인과 현금성 자산(약 20억 달러 규모 추정) 등을 근거로 AMC에 긍정적 견해를 밝힘. GME는 분기 대비 매출 감소(약 7%)와 SG&A 증가를 지적하며 실적 질문 부재에 대해 아쉬움을 표함. 본인은 AMC 주식 100주 보유(2,100주 아님 — 자막상 2,100주로 표기) 및 옵션 매도로 노출을 늘렸다고 설명하며 최소 1년 보유 의지를 밝힘.
다듬은 글
amc and gme i'm going to talk about why these stocks are falling in the after hours i'm also going to provide you my perspective on these particular stocks and i'm going to provide you with exactly what my position is related to these two stocks in the stock market i'll give you screenshots and i'll actually just pull up my weeple and show it to you but for now let's go ahead and see what the heck is going on we'll keep this nice and concise and if you like that make sure to hit that like button alright so check this out amc is down 2.15 percent in after hours down 0.9 on the day amc has obviously run up substantially from some of the lows that we had at the end of july and the middle of august which is great we've had a very nice recovery we are heading back to sort of bouncing off that 50.85 level we've worked out plenty of times before but we are nicely above that 41.75 level right now which is excellent for amc we jump on over to gme first thing is i do have much less technical analysis on gme i'm going to talk a little bit more about fundamentals on gme but we see a little bit of a curvature here to the downside following a run at the end of august we ran at the end of august from around that mid 160s range all the way up to a high of 231 dollars per share and presently we're sitting at about 198 dollars a share we are slightly down in the day and we've also fallen in after hours in fact if we look at the after hours we're all the way down to 181 it's almost like we're going back to that mid 160s range within 8.7 decline so what happened today well two things happened today first thing is amc amc announced or released on fox news this really incredible i mean really emotional piece of artwork uh a tv commercial and and very enticing a tv commercial campaign with nicole kidman who i can't believe is over 50 years old she's incredible but anyway she is a star in this commercial and this commercial really you've got to watch it it entices you to go to the movie theaters like when you watch it you feel the emotion of the movies beginning to play and like the beginning of a movie all that hope and anticipation of when that movie starts and everybody goes quiet and the the lights turn out it's great they did a phenomenal phenomenal job on their tv commercial this was announced on fox there were some tweets also of some securities attorneys trying to threaten fox suggesting that fox might get sued for helping promote the moas or a mother of all short squeezes suggesting that there's no fundamental basis for a moass and therefore because fox is promoting the moas fox might be exposed to potential litigation for promoting a short squeeze where there might not otherwise be a short squeeze which i thought was really uh unsavory i thought it was very very wrong that securities attorneys would come out against the amc movement because we have to remember that short squeeze aside amc and gme represent a movement it's kind of like in my opinion black lives matter and i'm not trying to get political here it's just they each represent something right so you think about it this way black lives matter represents social inequality and decades of making it harder for just for example black folks to build wealth through owning real estate because of redlining or just straight up discrimination blockbusting and real estate the fact that people couldn't get loans or that home value some black communities were lower right it so black lives matter represents a movement finding a solution for these inequalities right in my opinion the amc gme momentum movement the short squeeze movement the ape nation movement represents a frustration over the suits and a lack of transparency a lack of transparency around short interest data why is it that ortex has their data here and then s3 partners has their data here and then the truth is somewhere else but nobody seems to know except the hedge funds and the suits and the suits are the same kinds of people who are like oh how dare you fox looking out for the little guy well screw you suits you know charles payne and some of the folks at fox have been the most open to this ape movement ever compared to anyone else out there the exception of cnbc but i will only mention cnbc because i kind of feel like they're playing catch up to fox like they're like oh man charles payne is doing such a good job here and the other folks over at fox are doing such a good job on fox biz cnbc is playing a little bit catch-up but anyway point is gotta respect the amc movement and the gme movement the ape nation i respect it it represents much more than the underlying stocks and that's why i actually increased my exposure to amc and i'll show you exactly how i did that in just a moment but for now let's focus on amc and gme so amc incredible tv commercial uh incredible rumors about potential partnerships or talks or advertising talks with gamestop and excitement over what is to come uh adam aaron had an excellent interview on fox business today was very impressed with him now we have to see will this new marketing effort this 25 million amc marketing effort will that translate into revenue that's what matters now remember adam aaron says we've got about two billion dollars in cash or credit lines i expect that most of that is credit line and that's generally because it makes more sense to have your high interest rate credit lines paid down than just to have a lot of cash sitting around but yeah look we've got cash equivalents at amc and this enables us to advertise and get nicole kidman i mean what an honor what an honor to see movie theaters like amc now advertising themselves rather than just movies themselves right it used to be and adam aaron mentioned this it used to be that tv commercials would just advertise the movie and then go look at it in amc right this whole commercial you got to watch it you could see i'll link it down below the whole commercial is all about see a movie in amc because it's a theater and it's a full experience you got to enjoy it it's excellent it's awesome so now that's amc let's touch on gme and we're going to show you some shares and some things that i'm doing all right jimmy now we got some talking to do about this one so it bothers me a little bit that they're not doing q a sessions in the earnings call the reason for that is as someone who is a real estate investor and negotiator specifically a negotiator when it comes to real estate you know we don't really negotiate with stocks right we like to think we do but we generally don't i negotiate a lot in real estate and in my opinion the q a session is the most important to understanding what's really going on i want to see people on the hot seat under pressure responding to questions this is why i think all politicians should always be forced and compelled to debate because i want to see a leader under pressure i don't want to see somebody falter in the face of fake news i don't want to see someone give up in the face of fud i want the truth and i want that reaction from people and so i'm a little bit disappointed that there's no q a session in the earnings calls it bothers me now i'm obviously bullish on the movement that amc and gme represent but i'm not so excited about some of the details in the earnings call today i'm going to give you the good and then the bad from what we have which is very very limited because the good that we have well we're going to go through that but the potential for bad is very very limited because we got a very catered outline no forecasts and no q a let's talk about some of the good so the first thing that's worth mentioning is that year-over-year sales are up substantially they're up 25.6 percent where we just crossed a billion dollars in revenues at gme we're at 1.183 billion dollars compared to 942 in 2020 in the second quarter now i personally am not super jazzed about that second quarter reading why because the second quarter represents april may and june okay april may and june we were just barely getting our first stimulus check people hadn't gotten their ppp money yet people hadn't gotten their eid l money yet the markets were not flush with as much money just yet april may june of 2020.
i think real consumer spending started coming back uh in in you know the third and fourth quarter in other words this 25.6 revenue growth is good the net sales growth is good but i am worried we are comparing year over year to a big hole now i know a lot of people during the pandemic in the lockdowns spent more money on video games but then you also had the problem of a lot of game stop stores potentially being locked down especially in california where they weren't open anyway and people were buying their video games online so i really think you're comparing to a hole comparing to q2 2020 now we'll see at least it's up i mean up 25.6 that is good i have my reservations but that is good now the ceo of gamestop does mention that they were able to achieve this despite a 9 reduction in stores due to the pandemic this sounds good again but in my opinion also relates to this comparison back to a whole yes gamestop is consolidating its stores now with this 25.6 growth i also thought it was interesting that the ceo mentioned by the way we believe quote net sales is how people should evaluate us in other words assess the stock well yeah because that is also one of the best metrics that you have right now the big big big big tell to me is how are we doing quarter to quarter i'm gonna pull that up for you right now folks take a look at this okay this these are just the numbers this is not me trying to be a bear or or a bull it's just looking at the numbers okay net sales for the first quarter of 2021 was actually higher net sales of 2021 were 1.276 billion dollars we came in at 1.83 that folks is a quarter over quarter decline which we did not hear mention uh divided by 1276 that is a decline of about seven percent that's a quarter over quarter decline of seven percent and you have to pull up the q1 earnings release to actually see this because they don't give you the comparison in this quarterly report and they didn't have q a right then when we look at sg a let's go ahead and do the math here so sg a here sat at 378 divided by 1183 that works out to about 32 and in the quarter over here q1 sgna worked out to 370 divided by 1276 worked out to 29 percent so you had a two percent increase quarter over quarter in sg a and a seven percent reduction in sales quarter over quarter that's not good you have a softening in quarter over quarter sales but the ceo doesn't mention that the ceo mentions hey we're up 25.6 compared year over year that's despite a nine percent reduction in same store sales and our sg a is doing better compared to the second quarter of last last year okay like i i want amc i'm sorry i want gm well i want both of them i want both of them to win and succeed but here's what i ask be real with us be real with us like look if i got bad news and you know this if you watch this channel you know this about me if i got bad news you know i will tell you i'm not gonna lie to you i'm not gonna deceive you i'm not gonna tell you something's uh green and crystals when it's actually garbage and moldy grossness i'm gonna be blunt with you so i don't like those things and we're p picking these things out because these are specifically things that the ceo cheered now the good news is clear gme doesn't have debt no debt no borrowings they've got a little bit of debt they got a small term loan with the french government it's like a pandemic relief loan so most people don't really consider that even though technically is debt most people don't consider it they spent 28.2 million on capex they're making investments into this they gave no guidance we know this but we've got 1.775 billion on hand cash they did this by selling 5 million shares at the money or at the market right they've got a lot more money than they had last year a billion dollars more they lost less money than they've lost in previous quarters which is good they're at 642 stores which is still a very sizable company strengthened their balance sheet a lot they leased a new customer care facility in pembroke pines florida which is actually five minutes away from where i used to live in florida they're hiring talent for this customer for customer care there i personally think the focus should be a little bit different for example if i were on this board i'd be pushing for things like what can we do to partner with companies like corsair to sell gaming pcs memory cards chips become the best buy of gaming what can i do to partner in innovative ways with other businesses where i can sell games where the people are like how can i partner with dave and busters for example to have a gamestop kiosk so that way while people are sitting there eating taking a break and they're having fun playing games they're like hey we should take home a nintendo switch and uh super mario brothers or whatever like bring the games to where the people are right partner with sports betting firms like draftkings whatever look it's great that we've got a 500 000 square foot fulfillment facility opening up next year nevada and that the york pennsylvania facility is already starting to ship products this is good we're playing catch up with amazon it needs to be done this is bare minimum this is good it's bare minimum though i want the vision the problem is right now we're not getting the vision now a lot of vision is expected to come from ryan cohen who's the chairman of gamestop he's not the ceo he's the chairman of the gamestop board he also was the co-founder and ceo of chewie now he's no longer at chewy which is partially good because chewie has not had the best year so far their last earnings was a big oopsy doopsy oopsies which is not good uh he did step down to spend more time with family so that has nothing to do with him there's a separation i just want to make that clear because some people think that he still works at chewie it's just worth disconnecting those things he just focused on well i imagine family and gamestop which is great uh and the ceo mentions that hey look we're in the process of bringing in new innovative products some of the things they mention and i imagine ryan cohen has a lot to do with what what's happening here they mention more focus on products collectibles and electronics i'm really hopeful that electronics are things like pc gaming equipment i hope by collecting collectibles they mean nfts which remember you there's a website gamestop made a whole nft website splash page teasing nfts coming so i'm really hopeful that they've got big things brewing because there's there's not much to love in the fundamentals right now what we need for gamestop is hope you know like some vision uh and we're not getting that right now and i think that frustrates the stock market because the stock market is impatient i'm not suggesting people sell uh but uh you know i i why is the stock down it's because people like hope in the stock market you know with the hope opium lead stocks to go up uh and i'm such a big fan and proponent of the movement i really want to see gamestop and gme gamestop and amc succeed now i did promise you that i would show you my position in at least amc uh that is because i don't have shares in gamestop i do not own anything uh in gamestop but i do own shares in amc uh and i promised you i would hold amc shares for at least a year this is my weeble scroll to the amc section so what you can see here on screen right about let's see here so here where my finger is these are the shares i have i have 2 100 shares i sold a covered call for 55 to get a 24 500 credit i sold that last month sometime so i just have to make sure like if amc goes over 55 that i get rid of that contract so i don't get called out right but this is just a way of lowering my cost basis see it cost me i don't know exactly how much it cost me i think that's market yeah that's market value uh it cost me probably somewhere well i'm up whatever 80 bucks or 40 bucks or whatever it is so it cost me somewhere around 97 000 to buy these shares if this option expires worthless it basically reduces my cost basis by about 25 which is really awesome right here's another thing though that lowers my cost basis right here and actually increases my exposure to amc is i sold puts between now and january of 2023 which forced me to buy 2 000 amc shares which would be like doubling my position in amc if amc sells for under 40 dollars by january of 2023 so i'm making that commitment that amc is going to be above 40 for the long run now i could be wrong then i'd be forced to buy the shares right so i'm playing options on both sides here milking credits i'm really particularly liked this one right here the reason i like this one a lot is because uh two thousand shares at forty dollars would cost me eighty thousand dollars and i got a forty one thousand dollar eight hundred credit which is crazy that's a little bit more than 50 so anyway this gives you a little bit of perspective into my thoughts amc gme everything that's going on and folks we'll see you the next one bye
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