저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
버핏이 개인 종목 선정보다 저비용 지수펀드 정기 적립 투자를 대부분의 사람에게 권한다는 점을 설명하는 영상이다. 핵심 주장: 버핏은 1965년 이후 연 20% 수준의 종목 선정 수익률을 냈지만, 대부분의 개인에게는 종목 선정이 어렵다고 보고 인덱스펀드를 권한다. 근거: 잭 보글이 1975년 최초의 개인용 인덱스펀드(Vanguard 500)를 내놓았고, 활성 펀드 89%가 최근 15년간 S&P 500에 뒤처졌다는 자료를 제시한다. S&P 500의 1957년 이후 연평균 수익률은 약 11.88%로 소개된다. 투자 방법: 시장 추종 자산을 정기 적립(달러 코스트 애버리징)하는 방식이며, 예시로 S&P 500 반기 적립, 코스피 100 분기 적립이 제시된다. 최소 20~30년 기간이 필요하다고 강조한다. 리스크: 특정 해 -20%, 다음 해 +27% 등 변동성이 크고 단기 수익률은 평균과 다를 수 있다. 시장 리스크가 있으며, 지수 추종이 가격 발견 기능을 약화시켜 버블을 키울 수 있다는 우려(Michael Burry 언급)와 지수 내 가치관 불일치 문제도 언급된다. 종목 방향 예측: 영상에서 대상 자산별 1~3개월 방향 예측 발언은 없다. 버핏 장기 견해(인덱스 장기 보유)만 제시되었다. 출연자 전망: 특정 종목·지수에 대한 단기 가격 전망 발언은 없으며, 영상 전체가 장기 분산투자 교육 성격이다.
다듬은 글
since 1965 Warren Buffett the world's best investor has been laser focused on buying individual stocks and trying to beat the market to benefit the shareholders of Burkshire Hathaway and he's done that very successfully with an average annual return of 20% versus the S&P 500's rough 10% but one thing that's interesting about Warren is that he doesn't actually recommend most people do what he does he instead recommends that most people should subscribe to passive investing and simply dollar cost average into a market tracking Index Fund so in this video I want to explore Warren Buffett's reasoning and why passive investing is usually the most reliable strategy for most investors to achieve strong returns in the stock market Jack Bogle has probably done more for the American investor than any man in the country Jack there he is that there is Jack Bogel he founded the Vanguard group we all know today back in 1974 and in 1975 he introduced the first Index Fund for individual investors called the Vanguard 500 Index Fund which aimed to track the performance of the S&P 500 Index this was a radical departure from the prevailing investment philosophy at the time which emphasized actively managed funds that attempted to outperform Market averages through stock picking and Market timing however bogle's belief was that most actively managed funds actually underperformed the market due to the high management fees and actually index funds were a more costeffective and efficient way for individual investors to access solid market returns and what do you know he was right even today research shows that 89% of actively managed funds have underperformed the S&P 500 over the last 15 years after factoring in their fees Jack Bogle many years ago he wasn't the only one that was talking about an index fund but he it wouldn't have happened without him the truth it is it was not in the interest of the investment industry actually to have the development of an index fund the index fund because it brought down fees dramatically and as we've talked about index funds overall have delivered for shareholders a result that has been better than Wall Street professional as a whole and Jack at a minimum has left in the pockets of investors without hurting them overall in terms of performance at all he's put tens and tens and tens of billions into their pockets and those numbers are going to be hundreds and hundreds of billions over time the argument from Jack was to try and provide regular investors a product that represented wide diversification across the market with very low fees so they could achieve a return very very close to the actual Market average and if we turn to Investopedia that average annual return for the S&P 500 has been 11.88% since its Inception back in 1957 but interestingly for Warren his strategy of stock selection has earned him over 20% annual returns since 1965 so why does he believe that most people should instead dollar cost average into an index fund what do you consider the most important quality for an investment manager it's a temperamental quality not an intellectual quality you need a stable personality you need a temperament that neither deres great pleasure from being with the crowd or against the crowd because this is not a business where you take polls it's a business where you think some people should not own stocks at all because they just get too upset with price fluctuations some people are not actually emotionally or psychologically fit to own stocks but I think there more of them would be if you get educated on what you're really buying which is part of a business two clips one old and one recent but it shows that Warren really hasn't changed his thinking over the decades you know the most important quality you need to do what he does successfully is to have a rational temperament and the way you really achieve this as an investor is by truly understanding the Investments that you've made but to get to that point you need to invest a lot of time and effort into studying each and every business that you look at and realistically that's just not achievable for most people you know most people go to work they work 5 days a week and then they relax on the weekends they don't want to spend every spare minute you know combing through earnings call transcripts and financial statements at the end of the day individual stock selection is difficult it's not impossible but it takes time it takes dedication and importantly it takes a rational temperament and ultimately that's not something the vast majority of investors can properly commit to and execute so Buffett typically advises against the strategy of individual stock selection but on the flip side passive investing through dollar cost averaging is a lot easier to commit to and to properly implement the very nature of index funds is that you are saying I think America's business is going to do well over reasonably well over a long period of time but I don't know enough to pick the winners and I don't know enough to pick the winning times there's nothing wrong with that I don't know enough to pick the winning times occasionally I think I know enough to pick a winner but not very often and I certainly can't pick winners by going down through the whole list and saying this is a winner and this isn't and so on so the important thing to do if you have an overall feeling that business is a reasonable place to have your money over a long period of time is to invest over a long period of time and not make any bet implicitly by putting a big chunk in at a given time this is Buffett perfectly describing the passive investing strategy it's recognizing you don't know enough to pick the winners and you don't know enough to pick the winning times so what passive investors do is they look at Market tracking Investments and then to combat their inability to pick the winning times they invest the same amount of money into the market at the same time intervals and this is called dollar cost averaging so for example one passive investing strategy might be to invest $22,000 every 6 months into an investment that tracks say the S&P 500 another might be investing $500 a quarter into the footsy 100 ultimately each Investor's approach will be slightly different but for Passive investors they'll all have the same two characteristics in common a market tracking investment and a consistent investment schedule that spreads out their Investments they are simply participating in the stock market and deliberately setting themselves up to be completely and utterly average yeah I would say that in terms of the index fund I would just take a very broad index I I would take the S&P 500 as long as I wasn't putting all my money in at one time if I were going to put money into a Index Fund in relatively equal amounts over a 20 or 30e period I would pick a fund and I know Vanguard has very low costs I'm sure there are a whole bunch of others that do I just haven't looked at the field but I would be very careful about the costs involved because all they're doing for you is is buying that index I think that the people who buy those index funds on average will get better results than the people that buy funds that have higher costs attached to them and boy you were right Warren but I did want to quickly touch on one more key point that Warren made in that video yes he noted Market diversification and investing at regular time intervals but he also noted that this needs to be applied over a 20 or 30-year time period and this is the only really challenging thing about passive investing committing to the length of time required for the strategy to actually play out for example it's worth remembering say I have a lot of old school friends that are now passive investors and sometimes they'll come to me and say yep I'm just collecting my 10% every year feels great but technically that's not exactly correct while yes historically this strategy has returned about 10% as an average annual return you obviously don't just get 10% every year you know last year you got - 20% the year before you got 27% the year before that you got 16% if you started this strategy in 2008 after 1 year your expected 10% return was actually 38% so for this strategy to have the best shot at giving you a really stable return you do need to commit to a long enough time period for your dollar cost averaging to genuinely even you out to the long-term average annual return of the market but without doubt passive investors that have genuinely been able to commit to a long-term time Horizon have done very very well over time the best single thing you could have done on March 11th 1942 when I bought my first stock was just buy an index fund never look at a headline never think about stocks anymore just like it would do if you bought a farm you just buy the farm let the tenant farmer run it for you and I pointed out that if you'd put $10,000 in an index fund that reinvested dividends and I paused for a moment to let the audience try and guess how much it amount to and it would come to 51 million million dollar now and the only thing you had to really believe in then is that America would win the war and that America would progress as it has ever since 1776 and that American Business If America moved forward American Business would move forward you didn't have to worry about what stock to buy you didn't have to worry what day to get in and out you didn't you didn't know the Federal Reserve would exist whatever it might be and uh America works and honestly that's going to be the biggest Pro for the passive invest strategy it's a strategy that as we've talked about you know has worked reliably for investors historically as we said before the S&P 500's returned 11.88% annually since 1957 but in order to achieve this return the investor didn't actually have to use their brain or give up their time no financial statements needed to be read you didn't have to watch CNBC you didn't have to run any discounted cash flow analyses you didn't have to you know sacrifice a weekend to study or listen to earnings calls as Warren said all you had to believe was that the American economy would move forward over time and American Business would keep moving forward with it and in fact for Passive investors it's genuinely better the less they pay attention so overall that is the reason why the world's best active investor actually recommends passive investing now I do just want to balance this video by saying that there are always risks involved with any sort of stock market investing and this video is definitely not any sort of recommendation for you guys to go out and buy anything for example there's always Market risk when you're widely Diversified there's also concern from Smart investors like Michael bar for example that index investing is removing price Discovery from stocks which means their respective market caps are no longer being set by underlying business performance which means there's like a bit of a bubble forming and another consideration to make as well is that remember these index funds are program to just buy the biggest companies in a particular Market but if you hold the largest 500 stocks in America for example chances are there will be some companies in there that probably don't align with your own values and beliefs so there's still definitely a lot to consider before you go and call yourself a passive investor but anyway guys hopefully that gives you some insight into passive investing and why Warren Buffett recommends it for most investors I hope you guys enjoyed the video please leave a like if you did enjoy it or if you found it useful subscribe if you want to stick around and see more videos similar to this but guys apart from that thank you very much for watching we'll see you guys in the next video yeah
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