저자: Josh · 외국인
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10월부터 이어진 상승장이 4200 저항 실패와 4000 50일선 이탈로 깨졌다고 진단. 3950-3940 지지 붕괴, 저점 재확인으로 약세 신호. 월요일·화요일 반등 후 50일선 재테스트 실패 시 하락 확정 가능, 3300까지 하락 가능성 언급. 연준 금리 인상 폭(25bp 예상)과 은행 위기 불안을 변수로 제시. 인버스 ETF(SQQQ) 진입과 VIX 관찰 제안.
다듬은 글
Hey There YouTube family welcome to the stocks with Josh show the markets are moving up two days in a row does this mean that the Bull Run has been reactivated should we be buying and loading up in stocks and crypto right now is there any way to tell well I think that the charts give us a road map ahead the markets are actually looking pretty predictable to me right now I think we have to process what they've just told us since last Thursday and what they're getting ready to tell us in the next couple days it's all there and I'm going to lay it out for you guys today this is the stocks with Josh show thank you guys for already hitting the like if you would like to get daily stock and crypto videos then go ahead and subscribe and hit the all YouTube notifications Bell and be aware that there are scammers they use my picture they use my name they try to get you guys to DM them on WhatsApp and telegram all right let's take a step back and review everything that's happened since October till today in the charts we began a bull run in October and it lasted quite a while from the lows of around 3 500 we have been steadily climbing now I've shown a picture of the markets here before that we've had a very solid support line that's been underpinning this move for the last four months and every time that we've come close to Breaking beneath it the markets have just skyrocketed up well it continued that way until eventually we got to 4 200.
and at that time I pointed out to everybody that for the local high to be confirmed for a bull run to be confirmed it wasn't enough to get to 4200 we actually had to break above the previous High which was 4 300. well we actually came a few digits short of hitting 4200 and the markets got rejected that was the end of January and they've been falling ever since and then for the bullish narrative to continue we needed to see a bounce off of the 4 000 range which would be a higher low and it happened to be coinciding with the 50-day moving average now when the markets are above the 50-day moving average in price the S P 500 or the Spy that means the Bulls have control and it should likely continue to climb we needed to see a bounce off of that 50-day moving average with volume I told you guys that that at the time well we came back to that 50-day moving average it was around that 4 000 Mark and rather than bouncing with volume we broke through it now that was a very bearish technical indicator we lost the critical 3950 3940 technical range and we fell hard now here's what happened we went back to the previous low now this is a problem because we didn't make a higher low we made the same low that we had made before and on top of it we're beneath the 50-day moving average and we're beneath that trend line that supported us since October so if we are going to accept and process what the markets have already shown Us in the past we have to understand that as far as that October run is is it's over that's been broke down we lost the 50 we lost the trend line now we have been up for the last two days which is actually something that I'd caution everybody about I said don't pile up on puts even though the market is technically broken down give it Monday and Tuesday because Monday and Tuesday could be a reversal we could see it go back up and lo and behold that's exactly what we got but how high will it climb well if this bear move is going to be confirmed we should back test the same area that should have been our bounce area four thousand fifty day moving average we should go up and back test that and we should get rejected which would confirm the bearish move going forward and we could then see the markets drop hard now this is a big month of news we're having uh Black Swan events Banks failing I personally do not believe that the bank crisis is over I believe that the FED came out and took a very strong position to avert a modern day run on the bank very scary scary I've watched some other videos I watched some congressmen come out and make some videos and I had the experience that they were trying to reassure me that everything was okay and I thought wow this really makes me scared looking into these congressman's eyes and them telling me everything is going to be okay made me feel like everything was not going to be okay so I think the markets are definitely in a precarious place the economy is in a precarious place if I had to wager right now what the FED might do I think the fed's got to be very careful where he steps next and so I would lean towards a 25 basis rate hike not the 50.
I think he might need to slow down give the banks a little bit of a breather give the economy a little bit of a breather now what that means to the markets well I think that we should know by tomorrow or the next day whether or not we're going to back test 4 000 and get rejected if we got all the way up to four thousand for us to re-establish a bullish run moving forward we would need to reclaim the 50-day moving average reclaim 4 000 with mega volume then we'd have to be above those trend lines we'd have to come back and back test them from the top side and we'd have to shoot up from there that would confirm that things are bullish moving forward right now it looks to me like we're getting ready to set up a confirmation that things are bearish but there's enough news events and there's enough power in the FED that he could move these markets what do I expect well it looks to me like we're going to back test and prove a bearish market if I had to guess that's where I would lean towards guessing and purely from an odds scenario that's what the math seems to be implying to me let's say that we get up there we back test it we get rejected and then we continue to get some support from the FED we get some dovishness it wouldn't surprise me if instead of falling right away we Trend it sideways so that's the possibility leaving us in limbo for a little while maybe causing some compression in the markets which would be a tight price pattern moving sideways what that might prove to do in the future is it might prove to establish a uh a higher level of resistance around that 3 800 to 3900 level the longer we stay in a particular Price Zone on the S P 500 the more it either becomes support or becomes resistance right now we are beneath where we need to be so the longer we stay here and we buff it up against it the more we are potentially establishing it as a stronger resistance all right I'm going to let you guys know a couple of plays that I'm looking at and how we could play this potential back test and this move that's ahead of us this week in just a moment if you need better trade tools consider opening and funding an account with the mumu Investment app they're currently giving away 17 free stock this is a limited time and exclusive offer you can click on the link in the top pin comment to get all of the details I use MooMoo every day for their news their Free level 2 Data their eight smart order types it's sort of like conditional Trading and their stock screener and the chat group that I host on the app called stock Josh fam go ahead get your free stock start investing today and then come find us over on our chat group okay there are two things that we need to be looking at very carefully in the days ahead and those are the Inver verse Hedges against the market going up those are the sqq now if we were to get a break of the trend line or re-establish that dominance over the 50-day moving average then you would want to be in the tqq but if we stay beneath that trend line we stay beneath that 50-day moving average this could be setting up for an ideal time to get into the sqq and that's an inverse ETF that goes against the NASDAQ so if we are getting ready to have a capitulation moment where the markets go down 22 percent bringing us on the S P 500 all the way down to 3 300 then yes this could be the moment that's setting up when we back test that range that I've been going over here with you in this video the perfect opportunity to get back into the sqq maybe buy some calls on the sqq and ride it to that much higher level that we were hoping to get to earlier this year so that's setting up very nicely and here's the other thing I want you guys to look at that kind of supports that trade idea it's the vix I told you guys before when we're in elevated vix environment the markets are going to go down not up if the markets calm down and they continue to climb and the vix falls back beneath 20 then we could say the markets are going up right now the vix is elevated we have to assume that we're going to see additional spikes and that the Market's going to continue to go down but we're going to play it one day at a time those are the insights I wanted to lay out for you guys today I'm going to dive in a little bit more with some of the concerns I see on the banks some banks are a buy some banks you don't want to touch right now there's been a little bit of a flight to some of the larger Banks because these smaller banks are not going to get the The Lending from the federal government that the bigger banks are going to be eligible for because they don't have those large Bond portfolios by which to receive those funds against I think I'm going to continue to focus on playing the vix because every single time it cools off I think there's a potential for it to spike back up I think that's a very valid play right now the vix options they're not available on every platform but you can find them that's it for today thank you guys for joining me thank you for hitting that like go ahead and subscribe and hit the all YouTube notifications Bell to continue to be part of this conversation as always peace and blessings my friends we'll see you tomorrow foreign
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