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Good morning, this is Tomo. The US stock market closed on Tuesday, December 26th. I hope everyone had a fun Christmas. Today's market is quiet as it's the first day back after the holidays, but the S&P 500 is just a little bit away from its all-time high, and overall the market is up. Looking at the indices, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.43 to 4796.5 points, so if it rises another 20 points, or 1%, it will reach a new all-time high, so I think it might happen this year.
Nasda is up 0.55%, Russell 2000+ is up 1.26, and crude oil prices are up 2.24, and the price of gold is also up 2079D, and the dollar is almost flat against the yen, at 1 dollar = 10042, and the cryptocurrency Bitcoin is down 3%. This channel delivers breaking news videos every morning after the US stock market closes, so if you want to gather information while commuting or getting ready in the morning, please check it out.
Please subscribe to the channel. Looking at the international yields, the 10th anniversary yield was 3.819 and the 32nd anniversary yield was 4.354. There has n't been much movement around here. Looking at the chart, it seems to have been mostly sideways. Looking at today's stock price movements, in the pre-market before the market opened, it rose once, and when the market opened, it rose again and continued to rise from there.
However, it seems to have been pushed down a little by profit-taking sales near the close. However, it is approaching its all-time high. Also, the Nasda 100 index ETF, 999, has already reached a new all-time high and is rising even further today. Looking at the heat map, the strongest performers today were the rebounds.
NVIDIA was up +1.15%, but AMD was up +2.845, meaning they received a $2.845 incentive, which means they will receive support from the Israeli government. Also, although it is not included in the S&P 500, ARM Motors, which went public this year, 、 I've been thinking about this, but generally speaking, the reaction stock index is doing well, and it's also hitting new highs.
However, the introduction of AI into the industry is still in its early stages, so AI stocks will continue to be a focus in both Japan and the US in 2024. In particular, I think it's important to thoroughly investigate how the introduction of AI will affect the finances of a company, whether it's a company like Microsoft or Adobe where introducing AI directly leads to increased sales, or whether it reduces the burden on employees and saves on expenses, thus increasing profits, by introducing AI in areas such as customer support, before investing in AI stocks.
Now, looking at other news, in the US, people are currently dipping into their savings and using credit cards and deferred payment services like ByNow PayLater to get by. It's the end of the year, and normally many people enjoy shopping a lot, but this year it's slower than last year, and consumers are thinking carefully about their spending.
This reflects the fact that household finances are indeed tight. According to Mastercard payment data, retail sales excluding automobiles increased by approximately 3.1% year-on- year from November 1st to December 24th. Last year's survey showed an increase of 7.6%, but this year it was 3.11%. Considering that inflation is also having an effect and prices themselves are being pushed up, the growth has indeed slowed down a bit.
The Mastercard representative said that consumers are now spending money carefully, distinguishing between what they need and what they don't. In particular, restaurants, medical services, clothing, Christmas, and eating out are growing, and these fall under household goods. On the other hand, spending on food and electrical products, things that aren't needed unless they're immediately broken, is decreasing.
Online spending increased by about 6%, and in-store purchases increased by about 2%. This data, along with the previous financial results... Considering comments made by the CEO of Target, such as "Yumah," Amazon's stock price is still high, but overall consumer spending is likely to be tough. In the US, personal consumption accounts for about 70% of GDP, so a slowdown in personal consumption will lead to a decline in US economic growth.
That 's why, at the last FOMC meeting, it was predicted that while the current growth rate is close to 5%, it will drop sharply to 1.4% next year. So, I'm currently avoiding stocks related to consumer spending and ice. Apple is also struggling with year-end consumer spending. The Apple Watch was banned from sale in the US, and the White House did not overturn that decision, with Apple agreeing to concede the rights.
This is because the blood oxygen sensor installed in the Apple Watch infringes on two patents of a company called Masit. There is currently a lawsuit regarding the ban on imports of the latest model. In other words, only the US cannot import it; production is still ongoing. You can buy it in China and Japan, which isn't involved in this lawsuit, but the biggest buyers are Americans, so if they can't buy it this holiday season, it'll be tough for Apple.
As I mentioned earlier, people are cutting back on consumption except for essential items, but the culture of giving presents during Christmas and other events is much stronger in the US than in Japan, so if the Apple Watch isn't being given as a present, I think sales will be tough. Just a side note, but the Christmas season is a big event for children, and they receive lots of presents.
Last year, my kids received lots of presents from friends and put them under the Christmas tree, and they were overjoyed, but this year there wasn't much of that, just presents from family. However, looking at photos of my American friends' Christmas trees, there were tons of presents again this year, maybe around 20 huge ones.
My dad has seven siblings, so that's why he receives so many presents. We'll be getting more sales data for the Christmas and holiday season in the future, and that will be great. If it turns out to be a bust, it might be seen as bad news, and there's something to watch out for regarding Apple during the year-end and New Year period: the so-called flash crash.
When trading volume is low, there can be some kind of news that causes the stock price to plummet. For example, this is Apple's stock price chart from the end of 2018 to 2019. Apple's stock price had been steadily declining since around the end of 2018, and then on January 2nd, it suddenly dropped sharply with a gap down of about 10%.
This happened on January 3rd, 2019, and is known as the Apple shock. The exchange rate also fell sharply from 108 yen to 103 yen. What happened was that on January 2nd, early in the new year, Apple released a press release announcing an additive revision to its earnings forecast. Originally, its performance was strong and sales were expected to grow, but that suddenly changed with the additive revision, and that's when the stock was sold off all at once.
The reason for the revision was that in China... The principles of the economy have been at play, and even in developed countries, the launch of the iPhone hasn't happened very often. This time, Apple had expected to increase sales by launching the new Apple Watch during the Christmas shopping season, but now that sales have been suspended, if the expected sales don't materialize, then perhaps a new press release will be issued at the beginning of the year to announce an adjustment to their earnings forecast.
There are n't any rumors to that effect, but considering that flash crashes like this have happened in the past, I think we have to be a little cautious around the end of the year and the beginning of the new year. By the way, after this flash crash, I bought Apple stock in the first half of January when the stock price recovered a bit, so I think it's important to have some extra funds to seize such opportunities.
Looking at this week's economic indicators, there aren't any particularly important ones, but the S&P Case Study Housing Price Index was released. The result was 4.87 compared to the forecast of 4.9, which is a little weak. However, October was Real estate prices have been rising across the US for nine consecutive months, reaching record highs.
Prices have been rising in the latter half of the year, and have increased in 19 of the last 20 years. This rise in real estate prices is also affecting rent prices. Rents don't rise immediately, so after a six-month or one-year contract ends, negotiations take place where the rent is raised because real estate prices have also risen.
So, although there has been data recently showing that rent prices have been falling little by little, if housing prices are rising, rents are unlikely to fall all at once, so inflation is likely to persist. Next, a buy signal has been flashed for NVIDIA. This is because information has emerged that Pelosi, the Chair of All Members, has purchased $5 million worth of NVIDIA stock through options.
In a report by Pelosi released on December 22, it was reported that on November 22, 2023, she purchased 50 call options on NVIDIA with a strike price of $120 and an expiration date of December 20, 2024. The transaction is estimated to be between $1 million and $ 5 million, which translates to over 140 million to 600 million yen.
Buying call options at this price indicates that Ms. Pelosi is very bullish on NVIDIA for the next year. The reason why Ms. Pelosi's purchase is an open signal is that she and her husband have a history of using inside information to make trades. Looking at the past, in December 2020, her husband Paul bought 25 Tesla call options, and a few weeks later President Biden announced a plan to replace federal government vehicles with electric vehicles.
In 2021, after buying a large amount of Microsoft stock, news broke that Microsoft had received an order from the Department of Defense for AR combat headsets, causing the stock price to surge. Then in July 2021, a major tech company... The market is in an uproar following an investigation into antitrust violations.
It seems her husband took a contrarian approach, and as a result, Google was unscathed, and its stock price rose by about 20%. Also, last year, before the US Congress passed the chip bill, her husband began buying a large amount of NVIDIA stock. Because of past incidents like this, there is concern that restrictions on exports of counter-chips to China may be eased in the future.
NVIDIA's flagship product, the H100, is subject to restrictions, and the H800, which was designed to circumvent those restrictions, was also expected to be subject to restrictions in the future. It remains to be seen whether these restrictions will be lifted, or whether they will be allowed to export something else to China instead.
By the way, you can easily find out what stocks Pelosi holds by searching for "Pelosi Tracker" on Google. This is one example. Currently, Pelosi holds NVIDIA, Apple, and Microsoft. You can find out when she bought these, when it was made public, and how much she spent on them. Those kinds of things have come out.
By the way, the last thing I bought before NVIDIA was on June 15th, 2023, when I bought about $250,000 to $500,000 worth of Apple. So, there has n't been any big news, and it's right after Christmas, so most period investors are probably on holiday until the new year. That's why there's been so little activity.
I think individual investors will be the main players for a while, but as I said earlier, when the trading volume is low, if there's any sudden news, it tends to sell off quickly, so we want to avoid getting caught up in that. That being said, it's difficult to avoid it in advance, because unless you're glued to the market when it's open, it's impossible.
So, on the other hand, if you can buy when it drops, I think it's important to have good control over your funds. Also, this week marks the end of 2023, so on the evening of December 29th, I'm thinking of doing a live stream as a kind of year-end review. I'll let you know the details later, so I know you'll be busy at the end of the year, but if you have some free time, please come and join us.
I would be happy if you could give it to me. That's all for today. Thank you very much.
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