저자: RaamdeoAgrawal/NavneetMunot등CNBC-TV18출연자 · 외국인
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인도 시장은 장기 복리 성장(지난 25~30년, 코카콜라식 장기 복리 주장)에 유리하며, 디지털화가 모든 산업으로 확산되어 향후 10~20년간 디지털 기업이 GDP의 약 20%까지 커질 것으로 전망. 최근 PSU(국영기업) 급락은 과열 후 조정이며 펀더멘털 중심 투자 필요. 단기 조정(약 15일 조정 수준, 중국 부양책 기대 소멸)은 있을 수 있으나 장기 우상향 가능. 펀드 투자자에게 차익 실현보다 인내 강조. 특정 종목(Trent 등)은 언급되었으나 대상 자산 목록과 직접 연관된 예측은 제한적.
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we have the entire Global thing to discuss which we will do but let's also open it up to questions yeah you know I I would like to ask questions to both the guest it's Diwali time uh you know we talk about wealth creation you give a nice setup on the on the top down what IND where India stands and earnings and everything but R I want to ask you uh you know for the benefit of the viewers and and new firsttime investors how do you identify a a big winner like Trent I'm asking this because you know I met a fund man a very senior fund manager last week and his biggest regret of this year was to not buy Trent I believe you have in your fund as well the stock has in phenomenally Val always been expensive so you know in because you've you've seen so many Market Cycles how do you identify a winner like Trend and ride for a very long time stock tip next next trend you know you have to find see one of the thing you need for this kind of stocks to come through is to find the Tailwind massive tnd see what happens is markets don't know where the tnd is going to come up say energy sector it was a dead you know suddenly in last 12 months energy sector is thriving all over I mean historical IPO is just about closed yesterday I believe 250,000 crores have been kind of uh put in the demand so clearly it is backing the Tailwind so you have to find the tnd where tnd is like Capital Market has a tnd 4 million customers are coming every month so you have to find who are the beneficiary of the tnd and then go and buy person is sitting next to you in terms of Ben yeah so so everybody is the you know so you have to figure out Line energy transition so you have to find one t wi see what has happened is Buffet all has taught us uh and he has over taught kind of thing people so what has happened is this Quality quality buying good franchise buying but what has happened is the last 25 30 globally these companies become exorbitantly expensive and they are not growth companies so if you have 7080 P multiple and 5% growth how will you make money by no mathematics can you make money okay but it looks very nice on your Nestle Li and you I don't want to name too many so but you know so these names are not going to make money for you you have to find the one where the T you are early in identifying the tailwind and you bet on that say like I'll tell you now past so like I remember buying BH AEL in 2003 so at that time the there were no phones in India there were 40 million fix lines for this country of billion plus so the phone was absolute dire need and then these guys they come they grow like 5 7% month on month that kind of growth and but it was not making money so they came out with IPO at 45 bucks and quickly it became 19 bucks yeah okay you could buy entire BH for 5,000 CR so I could I was lucky to identify that yes this is going to be grow sector I I I bought it for doubler my always intention is to buy a company which will double in 3 years okay okay but it turned out to be 25x yes so now I can say I bought a multier no it it turned out to be multier so you never buy a multier to start with you buy as a healthy investment and it turns out to be you know the Tailwind turns out be so big that you end up getting the kind of a trend kind of return sdfc flex f it's multiply it's multiply 200 times close to 200 times in last 30 years and of course I must say that mutual funds are subject to Market risk serious note past performance is no guarantee of future but what it shows is the power of compounding what it shows is the power of an Indian economy where we are so lucky where the economy has been growing at a decent pace you have a corporate sector which converts that growth into their revenues and profits you have a stock market which converts that into the returns for the minority shareholder and you mutual fund industry where with 500 rupes you can participate in the same growth this is phenomenal this has happened only in United States and very few countries it has many countries count there are only two countries which are compounded India and America exactly there's no other country so they have more failed countries on this count then so if if you don't invest here go to us otherwise don't go anywhere I think long-term returns are 12 dollar returns are 12% both both markets right I think so more but it's a compounded return it's not a jerky in one month you go up by 30% and then next next 30 Years you don't do anything it's it's not that kind of Market I mean the market makes new high almost every year here I mean even if there's a massive breakdown in a year's time it just comes back y abolutely that kind of compounding has not happened anywhere I think that's an emphatic you're talking about 15 days of Correction and maybe a quarter of funding slow down I mean we have handled much bigger challenges oh yeah in 25 years when all of this has compounded yeah I think harmas uh you ask question yeah actually I wanted to ask both of you gentlemen uh for a better part of 2023 and for the earlier part of 2024 as well right everybody was talking about one sector that was the psus everybody was talking about psus every day you would see stocks go up 6 7 8 10% now that these stocks have corrected 30 40 50% from their peaks and some of them have corrected by that extent in just two or three months for a firsttime investor sir you mentioned that most of the participants in the market have come postco have not seen a cycle like this they've not seen a 2008 they've not seen a 2017 2018 kind of a midcap small cap meltdown that this have seen what would your advice be to such kind of an investor who would look at a past performance saying and then you see the kind of fall that you see it's very easy to get disheartened right what would your advice be to such kind of a participant and a sector like psus now do you think that a 30 40 50% correction has now made valuations healthy no see I I know psus have been disaster for 15 years 20 years from 2005 they were the commanding Heights of India in the stock market they commanding Heights 40 50% of market cap used to be psus then became literally nothing wealth creation was literally zero in 22 23 and then this thing happens and it was crazy I the it was completely unreasonable where the valuation had gone 3p 4 Co India I think was low single like 2 3 4 p 40 50% Ro pay out of 9 10% yield so clearly as if the coal is going to stop I me like next 12 months and we he was not able to supply coal even now they are shortage of coal so I think the markets have the tendency of the whole crowd somehow there is a problem with I mean any markets that they come together and they make a theme very very unpopular it's a myth so so you uh I mean the guys who made money obviously the guys they didn't buy into PSU they had PSU somehow and then the uh whole thing reversed and they made money now you deliberately go and buy PSU at a some good price I don't think that is going to make money I mean you have to find your own way of making but it's not a generic call that uh you can make money out of psus you know I as a house we have benefited a lot the psus that we had with conviction for a very long time I think they ultimately turned out to be very very good lot of credit to the government for bringing in the operational efficiency the capital efficiency that over the last couple of years that has been brought in and which is reflect acting in the market but at the same time the whole I mean it's not a sector because I think companies are in different kinds of businesses but again there was bit there were Pockets where because of the low floating stock a lot of euphoria and maybe the narrative got ahead of the fundamentals prices reached a level where there was no way incremental money could have been made so it's good to see some bit of correction there now let me welcome another set of stars who've joined our galaxy we have Mr nesa from Kota KC and Es thank you very much for joining in we want to hear more from you as well but if I could just extrapolate that question on PSU horman's question do I think a larger issue that a lot of investors mutual fund investors would be confronted with today they're seeing the value of their Investments erode now human tendency would be that even if I don't need the money my God I'm you know yesterday I was up you know 50% on my 2-year return or whatever and today I'm up only 30% tomorrow it's 25% so the tendency seems to be should I just book profit right now so what's the advice that you would want to give to this very genuine question that I think a lot of mutual fund investors would be having today they should be book profit because because you're see you're seeing the value of your portfolio fall you don't necessarily need the money but you want to feel smart like I've preserved my gain right and and then you after that I mean you pay tax now you put that and then maybe you wait for the correction and it's very very difficult I think all of us over the years we have heard that we have told people that it's the time in the market may sound like appreciate but it's the time in the market not the timing I think none of us have been able to do that and I don't think easier said than done yeah let me give you a nice quote here you know patience is bitter but fruits are very very sweet oh nice you know I mean you have to bring patience to investing you can't be always alltime high and all the correction has to be in my account isn't it that's what the so some who's going to take the correction I I I'll give you an example so someone called me and said that you know investor retail investor who's also into direct stocks said that I've bought HDFC bank because it's supposed to be a long-term fundamental good bed right and it's falling right now but it'll do well so that's my thought process I said good for you congratulations the same person uh sort of calls me again saying I sold HDFC bank because I was hearing that they have some structural growth issues next couple of quarters will be difficult I sold it but now it started Rising again after this qu so that's the kind of trap that people get into even though they want to be you know fundamental investors I just want to warn people about one thing so in February 20 we were here uh when we T that high of 12,000 on Nifty in next couple of weeks we fell to 7700 by 24th March or so because of the covid and from April onwards what happened that as Market started recovering we started getting redemptions because people had the psyche that I've seen the fall from 12,000 to 7700 as it went to like 9,000 and 10,000 people thought let me lock in my game because still we are hearing about Co and whatever the impact on growth but all of them have missed out on the big rally over the next 3 years it's very difficult to time just one thing I want to ask we not in a 200 was it 18 or 19 when midcaps and small caps kind of topped out and that and then we didn't do anything for the next 34 18 yeah 18 uh right it was January of that year Rami any thoughts we will only know in hindsight but that was a top and then for next 3 four years absolutely nothing happened right four years mid since B caps I don't remember so actually I can't say anything I was I was fully invested at top of the 2008 and at the bottom also I was fully 2008 20 2019 right 19 you're saying okay even then I was fully invested and I've done well so I can't figure out why that is the answer that's the answer that's how long-term wealth is made any thoughts no I mean the investors will become more discriminative I think as I said earlier that in last couple of whatever quarters everything goes up good news not so good news I'm inan good results not so good result but Market just goes up the stock just goes up I think it will change now and people will start looking at the fundamentals again which is a good thing even now after the correction there are there part of M and small caps where there's still fraud I mean even at this valuation they haven't become so attractive that you just go close your eyes and go and and buy I think so it's it's good that San it is coming back Nish R you spoke about you know identifying a tail vnd and I believe you've turned very bullish on the new business you you personally invested into zepto your private Equity owns swii your fund owns zamato uh what's what's the view there and I'm going to you know toss it to one of your colleague as well who's going to manage the digital strategy for for M AMC but your first win then I'll go to him as well yeah so I I fundamentally believe that uh when anything goes digital see we have seen it very closely in 87 the total transaction in stock market was 200 cres per day today and settlement was t plus 15 and we used to labor to settle life today it is 400 lakh cres per day there is no industry which has gone at two lakh times in 30 years yes okay so that is possible purely because of technology and digital okay and it's still growing at in fact Regulators are scared of the growth of the industry so so much so so anything goes digital it just goes wild okay okay so now grocer is going digital your food delivery is going digital you everybody is a consumer I mean you can see in your own house there's actual consumer Behavior change and intense and these are not small categories there are trillion dollar categories and how many guys three guys at early stage so you have and it's not only about them all the digital business whether it is in payment whether it is in uh Insurance whether it is in uh navigation or whatever you say anything goes digital I mean how many times you see your map when you're traveling for half an hour absolutely otherwise who's going to tell you where is this particular place so I I think the use of digital so my sense is that uh like what is happening in us and China and all I think uh the number of digital companies in India are going to explode uh sector after sector and I don't know which one will go 100x but if you have the full bucket of 1520 companies the entire bucket will go by maybe 25 30% in next 10 years so let me go to one of your colleague vun is here uh vun thanks for joining in uh you've done a lot of work on the digital space uh if you want to just quickly you know run through your thesis and some big numbers on why you feel it's it's a opportunity for the decade yes sure see Ram G has covered most of it yeah but we are seeing digital coming in every each and every sector right uh we saw these Trends in the US we saw these Trends in China India just lacked behind but we have all the digital pillars in place today so when we are looking at next 10 15 20 years we know that digital companies are going to emanate from each and every sector in various constructs be it b2c B2B or even B2 b2c and that is something that we are you know banking on right now that this is a big Tailwind like just just like what you know Ram G talked about and possibly this is going to be the biggest Tailwind uh across sectors uh over the next 10 15 20 years how could be the time when when you talk about you know total addable Market how big could be that market on the digital side So currently the numbers that are coming out are you know currently we have about 8% of 8% of our GDP as digital and very quickly over the next 6 years it's going up to 20% and it's not not going to stop there you can imagine you know this penetration is going to continue to happen can this happen R 20% of GDP coming from the digital companies I it looks like big but compounding is always very mesmerizing particularly 10 years 20 years what it can do okay you want to add anything else absolutely I think it's quite fascinating that we are seeing so many new companies smaller companies which are gaining scale phenomenally and we're very excited for the next you know few years we'll see many many more new companies coming out and and get listed uh exciting times for us okay I want to take that point forward actually the fact that you mentioned the penetration that is growing exponentially when it comes to Digital two other sectors which are in similar categories not digital exactly one is financialization of savings that you just mentioned the number of demat accounts the way it's growing exponentially but the penetration is still not as to that level that you would think okay it's a massive sector same for insurance but insurance even after so many years it's not managed to reach that level do you think uh AMC's or the this financialization of savings as a theme would be a faster scaling theme compared to Insurance when it comes to penetration exposure yeah I see the it's a savings product this one is entire savings product so what we have seen in uh broking and all I mean the moment it has gone digital uh the the the ease of boarding and participating has become far easier and see one broking account say my broking account could be worth hundreds of crores okay but my insurance account will be only that much how much premium can I pay so that opportunity size is my total savings if I'm worth th000 crores my entire th000 crores is available for trading and wealth management and asset management all sorts of things but insurance is not like that so time gets slightly distorted when it comes to entire Capital Market and that to digital you know we're talking all the big stuff and that's uh that's what we should do right look ahead and but slightly near term I want to just put ask you R how much more huh how much more on the downside you think downside yeah 7% Market has fall nift is fallen from highs how much more will we be will we be higher by by uh by next Diwali you think next Diwali for sure for sure we'll be higher but how much higher I don't know but these things are see first thing is there nothing to do with India it is to do with what happened in China right CH did a stimulus and people got excited about it right they might again be disappointed what is there and then people run from there to here the my problems are my own earning so that we must address correct we can do nothing about China's stimulus correct so I think that's a temporary phase we have to pass this time and whatever just think the day on which uh fi become neutral or positive on India that's then what happens but do you think it's possible we are in a bit of a Time correction phase we we Flatline for a while it's it's possible don't ask me like a chst I don't know you know I've never seen Chan right CH is you ask him he's the guy actually he's the guy I mean he spends 24 hours looking at charts no we we will bring him in as well but you think the market does nothing for a while I mean the the go- go markets we had the euphoric markets for the last many years yeah that we kind of temper a little bit pace of 15% is on Last 5 Years is only 16% return let me tell you Nifty return is just about 110% total for 5 years that is about 16% I don't have any problem with saying that could be 100% up in next 5 years and in in next 10 years for sure it'll be Forex so Market is going to double yes in in five years in next five years so you that is my expect that's my expectation ien who knows all right uh I guess with that uh you know we'll wrap up this part of the conversation thank you so much for joining in and you know shedding some light uh you know in in the Festival of Lights on how we're looking at wealth and our investments thank you so much and RAM for joining in and giving us all of those insightful ideas for wealth creation and investing in the new summer thank you very much for joining in well with that it's a wrap on this edition of the Diwali special We wish all of our viewers seasons greetings wish you a very very happy and prosperous Diwali thank you for watching
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