저자: JJ · 외국인
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결론: 레이 달리오는 2022년 5월 시점에 버블 주식은 꺼졌지만(디플레이션) 시장 전체는 여전히 고평가 상태라 지금이 매수 적기는 아니라고 본다. 달리오의 버블 정의: 고가(전통적 가치 대비), 지속 불가능한 조건(성장률 외삽), 신규 초보 매수자 유입, 광범위한 강세 심리, 부채 기반 매수, 과도한 선매수 등이 높은 정도로 결합된 시장. 버블 지표 변화: 2022년 1월에는 미국 주식시장 전체가 버블 가장자리(1990년대 말 최고점의 약 70% 수준)였고, 테슬라·로쿠 같은 신흥 기술주는 극단적 버블이었다. 이후 버블 주식 바스켓은 1년간 약 1/3 하락했다. 현재 상태: 신흥 기술주 버블은 상당히 꺼졌고 그 지표는 2017년 수준까지 내려왔다. 다만 극단적 반대 상태로 가지는 않았다. 시장 전체 지표는 1990년대 대비 약 50% 수준, 소프트웨어 섹터 PS는 여전히 역사적으로 높다. 신규 리테일 투자자 활동은 코로나 이전 수준으로 복귀했고, 강세 심리는 극도로 나빠졌으며(약 60%가 약세), 레버리지 매수 비중도 낮아졌다. 리스크: 버블은 해소에 1~2년 걸릴 수 있고, 과거에는 반대 극단으로 과도하게 하락하는 경향이 있었다. 미국 주식과 채권 합산 지표는 여전히 고평가다. 비교: 제레미 그랜섬은 2021년 2월 신흥 기술주 버블이 터졌고 나스닥이 약세장에 진입했다고 보는 반면, 달리오는 버블이 1990년대 수준만큼 크지 않았고 일부만 빠졌다고 본다. 진행자는 워런 버핏·찰리 멍거도 투기 과열을 언급했다고 전한다. 진행자는 블룸버그형 달리오 기고문과 1920년대 주식 버블 사례 연구(『Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises』 49쪽)를 추천한다. 달리오 지표는 공개되지 않은 독자 지표이며, 방법론 설명은 없다. 진행자 의견: 달리오의 견해를 소개하되 그의 최근 운용 성과가 부진했다는 점도 짚고, 주장 자체는 검토할 가치가 있다고 평가한다.
다듬은 글
hey jj here again with the out of value okay so today what caught my eye was uh ray dalio article from uh radio bridgewater and he posts things on his linkedin so the link is if you're on video you'll see the slide the article is called the popping of the bubble stocks the popping of the bubble stocks an update from the 3rd of may and it's very interesting it's the next in the series of uh that he writes and what he says first me to introduce it having been through many bubbles over me over my 50 years of investing about 10 years ago i described what in my mind makes a bubble and use that to identify them in all markets in markets all markets not just stocks i define a bubble market as one that has been that has a combination of the following in high degrees high prices relative to traditional measures of value e.g by taking the present value of their cash flows for the duration of the asset and comparing it with their interest rates unsustainable conditions eg extrapolating past revenue and earnings growth rates late in the cycle when capacity limits mean that that that growth can't be sustained next many new and naive buyers who were attracted in because the market has gone up a lot so it's perceived as a hot market have we had that recently in the last couple of years oh yes we have so and the next one brilliant broad bullish sentiment okay so we've talked about the sentiment yesterday i talked about sentiment being the worst it's been for a very long time but in the last few years it was the like in 2020 it was kind of the opposite so a high percentage of purchases being financed by debt a lot of board and specula speculative purchases made to bet on price gains eg inventories that are more than that are more than needed contracted forward purchases etc what was shown in january and what is shown now he talks about so this is a this is an interesting thing to me and i posted this on an local investment for a facebook group for a man and i got a predictable response from uh from tesla fanatics out there so sorry if you are uh it's just what it's not what i'm saying that's what ray dalio was saying but i was kind of joking about ray joe's dead to me now uh sort of sarcastic i suppose so he says i'm going to put this on the screen so people can see this too but in january the bubble indicator showed that a the u.s equity market as a whole was at the edge of a bubble but not in an extreme level i.e 70 of the way toward the highest bubble which happened in the late 1990s and in late 1920s and b the emerging tech companies eg tesla and roku which people obviously when we're happy to hear we're clearly in an extreme bubble i also noted that other puppy behavior eg specs the ipo boom the big pickup and options activity financed by the unprecedented flood of liquidity postcode had found its way into the asset markets making things bubbly i showed which stocks were in a bubble were in bubbles and created an index of those stocks which i call bubble stocks right so yes this is what it's interesting that the various opinions because jeremy grantham was saying that basically saying that everything said if i was one of the biggest levels in history as big as the 1990s and radiation is saying that it wasn't quite that big but certain stocks were the public stocks and innovation stocks for instance so he goes on to say i'm just going to lay the ground work and then we'll i'll go through some grass that he has and comment on those since then he's talking about since january since then the bubble stocks popped they declined by about a third over the past year okay over the past year uh while the s p 500 is about flat well i think it's about it's down a bit now uh but to check that it wasn't down about 10 maybe you wrote this a while ago with those and other developments in the market e.g meaningful decline and frothy retail activity meaningful deterioration of sentiment and more and more the emerging tech stocks no longer appear to be in a bubble but neither do they appear to have substantially swung to the opposite extreme so it's not necessarily true that now is a good time to buy them all right seems pretty clear one more paragraph bubbles can take a long time to unwind two years in the case of the 1929 bubble one year in the case of the 1990s tech bubble and typically go to the opposite extreme so just because they aren't at a bubble at a battle extreme doesn't mean that they are safe or that it's a good time to get long in fact u.s stocks and aggregates still look overvalued to our measures history shows that once the popping begins bubbles are more bubbles more often over correct to the downside versus settling in a more normal and quotes prices so yes that's pretty clear from what he thinks about that i don't need to really go over that uh but i'll say it that's interesting that he says that where the bubbles popping it was like in innovation stocks and some highly valued tech stocks the covered beneficiaries i like to call them now rather than innovation stocks because there were other other stocks too that went up other than tech but really the heat has definitely come out so he's got lots of charts here which are interesting because he's done a lot of research over the years and uh just to note that when i posted this on the investment forum people in uh people immediately shut back well you know he hasn't done well as an investor over the last 10 years and um you know bridgewater has basically passed he doesn't know what he's implying that he doesn't know what he's talking about but you know i think i just looked it up individual is doing pretty well this year up until march anyway they're beating me but you know people were attacking that rather than what he's actually saying yeah and his research and so forth it's kind of a typical response so you know even if even if uh he hasn't that bridgewater hasn't been out performing recently or even in the last decade doesn't mean what he has to say is wrong or not not interesting or valuable to look at we can get something out of many things so the battle gauge this is a graph if you're just on audio i'm going to explain it because as i said again the video is on youtube and on spotify you'll see it but uh i'm gonna actually enlarge it so we can see it more but the so he's got uh uh graphs of the 1920s and 1990s level and today and as you can see it shows that the 1990s bubble kind of went up way the top of his graph's 100 went down to 20 percent and what he says about today is it went up to about 80 oh just over 80 and it's now down to 40 so basically implying that there are there are uh there's more to go in terms of shaking out but it didn't get to a very extreme point but some stocks did the extreme bubble being bubbles being stocks like he said tesla roku all mentioning tesla is uh blasphemy isn't it absolute blasphemy as being still being in a bubble but people like michael clary have said as much charity grant them and others disagree so this one the chart show that the chart below shows the bubble gauge for the average of the most bubbly companies as defined in 2020 readings for the most companies are meaningfully down so this bubble says this this graph says bubbly companies in 20 20 21 uh so it went up in in its chart here to about three and a half and down below zero now so and that's back to uh uh bubbly companies yep so back to levels that were it's like 2017 even interesting so the chart shows the next one the chart shows below the performance of a basket of emerging tech bubble stocks uh what we call the bubble slice versus the s p 500 prices have meaningfully declined and have given up most of their covert post covert gains so we have uh total returns as the index to the start of 2 000 and total returns year on year so we can see that uh total returns against the sp 500 they're nearly kind of back down to where the s p 500 is after going way up 200 and uh total returns are kind of well the bubble slice is well below the s b 500 after going way above it since you know since that since the march 2020 uh crash would say crash lit with that where the market went down about 40 34 35 and then shot up from there into a bubble and there's crashed well below actually below where it was uh even pre-covered so the heat has definitely come out and so this is his graph that that's proprietary information he says and the u.s equity market it shows how the conditions stack up today for u.s equities in relation to past times these readings suggest that we're out of a bubble so when i say preparation he's going to show it but it doesn't say how how he came to the conclusion so i'm just going to uh i'm going to enlarge this so i don't know if you can see that but i'll explain it so this is he talks about the various conditions uh current conditions compared to previous levels so he's sort of basically saying that today it's deflating deflating defaulting and also deflating emerging tech is deflating somewhat frothy it's still prices are discounting unsustainable conditions still somewhat frothy today in emerging tech but total market deflating and this is from you know comparing to the dot-com bubble which was red and flashing red but red for all of the categories bubble bubble bubble so that because the uh the uh the categories our prices are high relative to traditional measure measures number two prices are discounting unsustainable conditions number three new buyers have entered the market number four there is broad bullish sentiment uh purchases are being financed by high leverage buyers businesses have made extended forward purchases so some of those jump out to me uh i mean when he was talking about uh january 22 emerging tech he was saying like frothy fluffy bubble bubble frothy gravel somewhat frothy so that was the conditions so you know comparing its past doubles he's got 1920s bubble bubble bubble bubble and property for the last one businesses buyers businesses have made extended forward purchases so basically you know for this for this emerging tech bubble we it's he's saying it was definitely a bubble when it's defeating now and for the total market in january 22 it wasn't so much so sort of said no bubble for prices are discounting unsustainable conditions and no bubble there is broad bullish sentiment in january 2022 was the broad bullish sentiment no because it started it sort of fell off in november december uh somewhat fluffy prices are high relative to traditional measures somewhat frothy he said so this is quite different from what jeremy grantham thinks uh basically dalio is saying that the bible wasn't as big and it sort of caught him down and jeremy grantham was saying that the emerging tech bubble burst last february and it's kind of now that now the generals are starting to be shot so that's why the nasdaq nasdaq has started to go down since what november december and to a bear market and daddy is saying that the bubble's deflating so take what you want from that um that's kind of all i wanted to say today or there's one more graph here let's just keep going a little bit further so the bubble pricing the current read on this price gauge for us equities is around 50 50th percentile so um he's saying that the 1920s bubble was up to 100 percent in the 1990s they were up for 100 and relative when it went but when it burst when they burst it went down to about zero and he's saying that we're now down to about 50 after being like uh seems to be about 90 so the bubbles weren't expected but it's only kind of half deflated um and so even this this is even more noticeable uh in the in the u.s software sector analyst earnings growth expectations for this sector have come down but they are still relatively high compared to history ps have reversed their covert gains but remain high compared to history okay so that's something software's so expensive is basically saying software sector um how many new buyers those who weren't previously in the market have entered the market so obviously there were a lot of new buyers since in 2020 to now um he's saying this gauge this gauge shot about above the 90th percentile in 2020 due to the to the flood of new retail investors who into most popular stocks which by other measures appeared to be in a bubble more recently we have seen a meaningful moderation in the pace of retail activity in the markets it's now back around pre-covered averages so it's shot up way above and come back now so that's the new buyers there's a percentile has come back way back so that's interesting and i've noticed that too some some retail investors a lot have left the market for they you know the whole stocks always go up remember that um and now it's uh we're far from that stonks don't always go up and they're going down so another one number four is how how broadly bullish is sentiment well we know i know you know from um talking about this video yesterday go back and have a look at that as the sentiment was absolutely terrible as terrible sixty percent sixty percent of invest individual investors are bearish that's when it's almost a record or you know historically very high percentage uh purchases being financed by high leverage uh that's gone down too 1990s with white was higher but today it's sort of gone down to still still pretty high still pretty high around 50 all right that's that's it for today i um so to concluding he's basically saying that everything we're seeing driving the bubbles in this segment of the market is classic virtually the same drivers we saw 100 years ago in the 1920s and a little over 20 years ago in the 1990s bubble for instance in the last couple of months it was it was how tightening can act to prick the bubble so saying it's a classic that the fed's tightening and now that that's that acted as a pin to the bubble to understand these dynamics you must want you must you might want to review this case study of the 1920 stock bubble starting at page 49 so this is from my book principles for navigating big debt crisis so that was his last book very big bug i haven't read i have read read parts of it that have been uh belated i haven't read that on that the whole book i've read uh sections of it and the introduction which was pretty fascinating or the best you know chapter two and uh so that's all i have for you today that's just i thought that was really interesting that what daniel's thoughts on on the bubble another perspective on is there a bubble uh you know there's a consensus among there seems to be a relative consensus among these very experienced older children that there is a bubble even charlie munger and uh warren buffett over the over the weekend at the at berkshire's annual event basically implied there's a lot of speculation around and these are the stocks and saying how trash robinhood was and all this and i'm not going to go into crypto but anyway that's it for today like and subscribe if you like this and uh and uh you've seen it on the screen if you're on video the ask value twitter is the outfit at the added value catch me there and conversation and we'll see you next time
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