저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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Jim Rogers는 2009년 이후 전 세계 중앙은행의 과도한 통화완화가 한계에 이르렀으며, 시장이 중앙은행을 강제로 멈추게 할 시점이 2016~2017년에 올 수 있다고 봄. 주요 자산 전망: 달러는 안전자산으로 몰리며 강세를 보일 것으로 보고 롱 포지션을 크게 가져가고 있음. 다만 달러가 과대평가돼 버블이 되면 달러를 팔고 금이나 원자재로 이동할 수 있다고 함. 원자재·금: 농산물 등 원자재는 달러 강세 시기에 하락하는 경향이 있어 피하려 함. 금은 역사적으로 은보다 덜 떨어졌다며 보유한다면 은을 선호한다고 언급. 정크본드·고평가주: 정크본드를 숏하고 있으며, 페이스북·아마존·넷플릭스·구글 등 몇몇 대형 기술주도 약 2~3개월간 숏 포지션을 유지 중이라고 밝힘. 중국: 중국 주식을 보유 중이며, 중국 정부가 시장에 개입하지 말고 붕괴를 용인하는 것이 최선이라고 주장. 위안화 2~3% 하락은 평가절하가 아닌 시장 변동이라고 봄. 연준: 연준을 폐지해야 한다는 견해를 밝힘. 리스크: 자신의 예측이 틀릴 수 있으며 과거에도 많은 실수를 했다고 인정.
다듬은 글
bring in Jim Rogers he is the chairman of Jim Rogers Holdings he is on the phone this morning Jim make sense of what we're seeing today oh D well we've had 10 years of excess and maybe we're gonna have to pay some prices for a while you know good times don't go on forever they Jim I want to talk to you about that because of the Nutty crazy excessive monetary policy that we had around the globe how B cuz it was unprecedented juice coming from these central banks Here There and Everywhere how long can this go on in terms of markets writing themselves correcting washing away the excess that we've been enjoying since well starting in 2009 they never in world history have you had all the major central banks Japan Britain Europe and America all printing staggering amounts of money at the same time this has never happened in recorded history so we may have to have uh we may have to pay the pr like we've never paid in recorded history you're right this cannot go on forever either the central banks are going to come to their senses which is unlikely but the market is going to force them to come to their senses but the the market but the reaction by these central banks and you've seen it everywhere but the United States is to just do more but if they continue to do more is it are they powerless do they have no Mojo in ter or juice left that they can continue to try and print money buying bonds if you will but has that just stopped working aan there comes a time when the when the market is bigger than the central banks and the market says we don't care we don't want your garbage anymore it looks like we're going to have those times in 2016 and 2017 I don't want their garbage anymore do you they're garbage you mean in well in terms of us treasuries that's at least it seems like a Haven at least recently Jim I know how do you feel about the US government you talked about short you're um looking for more junk to short which you you started shorting junk pods last year you're not doing that with other forms of higher quality credits at this point but I know that you got your eye on that well yes I do but at the moment I'm sure junk bonds as you say and I'm sure the you know those stocks that never go down and but I'm long the US dollar I have a huge position on the long side of the US dollar because people are going to flee to what they think is a safe haven now the US dollar is not a safe haven but people think it is and not going to buy the Yen and not going to buy the Euro so here I am let's hope I get it right well hasn't this been Jim hasn't this been like basically the epicenter of the commodity risk is what you just said is absolutely right as everybody else tries to devalue the dollar gets stronger and in dollars Commodities end up being a place that you just don't want to be well that's exactly right and often in history when dollars go up which has been very strong for three years commodi go down as you well know I hope if you know my plan not that I know what I'm doing but my my thought is that the Dollar's going to turn into a very overvalued item it may turn into a bubble at which point I'll sell my dollars and probably buy gold or the go will be down at that point now I I have made many plans in my life and the markets just slapped me in the face many time and says we're smarter than you are but that's the way I'm looking at the world right now long dollars and our buy gold or something Commodities when I sell my dollars but that could be a year from now Jim I wanted to bring up gold Gold's up about $7 $7 an ounce it did top that $1,100 Mark it's it's slightly below that level right now but in terms of gold because you invest in all Commodities you've been focused on agricultural Commodities as long as I've known you but with gold why gold if it it just doesn't have the uses and the the application in in our lives that other Commodities do whether it's grains whether it's other metals well you can buy silver if you were if I were buying one of the two at the moment I would buy silver because historically it's down more than gold but you're right I mean there many people will tell you that go I'm not the first to tell you you know it's a barbaric Relic etc etc who cares whether it is or not as long as people think that it's something that they should own who cares what the intellectuals think hey Jim uh assuming you had a momentary lapse of reason and agreed to run the fomc what steps if any would you take to uh help write things or get things back to actually being Market driven what would you do I would abolish the Federal Reserve and then I would resign well since we're putting you in these situations I I would also like to know what you think the Chinese government should do at this point to stem the freef fall or should they let it go and let all of this trouble actually bleed out for once well absolutely I'm long China standing in China right now I if I were the Chinese government I would stand aside I would let the thing collapse uh every time any government in the world throughout history has gotten into a market it's an unstable situation and that's happening again if I were the Chinese I would stand aside and by the way I own Chinese shares so I would lose a lot of money but it would be a temporary thing and the best bottoms are the one where you have a big collapse it finds a natural solid bottom and then you can start over that's what I would do if I were China I'm not China they don't have to listen to me hey Jim you're long China though so the the market the certainly the sell off this week you don't think and it it seems to indicate at least some economic weakness they're devaluing the currency trying to juice exports but you're fine with that but you ask me what I would do if I was a Chinese government yes that's what I would do I said artificial situations are always unstable and little little shocked that you say they devalued but the mark the currency is down two or 3% that's not a devaluation that's a market fluctuation that's right hey Jim one thing you mentioned I want to backtrack to so I know you're short junk and then you said that you're short overvalued stocks what are we talking about the Facebook the Amazon the Netflix and Google yes yes yes yes those there four or five maybe nine stocks in America that never go down or haven't they're starting to going down now fortunately and saving my my Chinese situation no those are the stocks that I'm sure I've been short them for two or three months now and fortunately they're coming to the rescue they are indeed as do you always we always call in whenever we need you Jim it's better if you're in per here in person but anytime you you want to call please do well D you know I make plenty of mistakes plenty of mistakes so I'm happy to talk about them anytime you want all right well I have a question what's the biggest mistake you made in the last six months then well the biggest mistake in my life was my first wife oh my God what what a what a mistake that was you know I ran into recently quite by accident and I can't believe how happy I am that he's no longer my wife well what a mistake it was Jim I was really talking about investing but I'm glad you shared that with us okay
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