Stock Market: Ray Dalio And 1937?

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2018년 8월 시점, 레이 달리오가 1937년 대공황 재현 가능성을 경고한 내용을 소개하며 S&P500이 2018년 초 고점을 재돌파하는 시점을 최대 위험 구간으로 보고 있다는 영상. 달리오의 비교 논리: 1929·2007년 부채 한계 도달과 버블 정점, 1932·2008년 금리 0% 근접, 1933·2009년 통화 발행과 디레버리징 시작, 1933~36년·2009~17년 주식 랠리와 경기 회복, 1937년 중앙은행 긴축으로 인한 자기강화적 하락. 현재가 1937년과 유사하다는 주장. 제시 펠더(Felder Report)는 이 유사성이 그 어느 때보다 잘 맞고 있으며, 경기 사이클 노후화와 인플레 압력 속 중앙은행 긴축이 자기강화 하락으로 이어질 가능성이 커졌다고 봄. 1933~37년 구간 과 현재의 S&P500 상관계수를 약 94%로 제시하며, 가격 유사성은 펀더멘털까지 맞을 때 의미가 커진다고 언급. ChewDog은 차트 매칭 자체보다 S&P500이 큰 이중 천장(double top)을 형성할 수 있다는 점에 주목하며, 2018년 초 고점 재도달 시점을 최대 위험 구간으로 지목. Market Anthropology의 Eric Schwartz는 S&P500이 은·금이 2011년 고점 이후 하락했던 패턴을 따르는 '긴 작별(Long Goodbye)'을 겪고 있다고 주장. 1월 기록적 종가 아래의 낮은 고점과 4월 이후 랠리의 종료를 근거로 듦. 리스크: 중앙은행 긴축, 인플레 압력, 이중 천장 완성 시 급락 가능성. 출연자는 차트 분석을 개인 견해로 제시하며 확정 예측은 아님.

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01. Ray Dalio and 1937 what does one have to do with the other Ray was born in 1949 so that can't be it well let me tell you what it is back in 2015 Ray Dalio who's a billionaire founder of the hedge fund giant Bridgewater associates compared the current economic climate to the one that Americans grappled with some 80 years ago so let's take a look this chart here is the overlap of the chart from 80 years ago and then the current chart eight years ago was shown in the blue and the current chart of the sp500 is in the black up until about maybe a week to two weeks ago at the most and here are the key points that Ray Dalio has made regarding the similarities here number one debt limits reached a bubble top causing the economy and markets to peak and that was back in 1929 as well as in 2007 number two interstates hit zero amid the depression back in 1932 and then also in 2008 number three money printing starts kicking off deleveraging back in 1933 and then also in 2009 number four the stock market and risky assets rally from 1933 through 1936 and then from 2009 to 2017 number five the economy improves during a cyclical recovery from 1933 through 1936 and from 2009 to 2017 and then the last similarity number six the central bank tightens a bit resulting in a self-reinforcing downturn in 1937 and then that is what remains for today and the combination of these monetary and fiscal tightening pressures created a significant sell-off in risk as daily I wrote he continues stocks fell the most but home prices arrested their gains and dipped negative as well so we fast forward here to today and Jesse Felder of the popular Felder report blog says that the analog is tracking better than ever if it continues and one look at this chart here one should be worried he also states that it seems Central Bank tightening into a self-reinforcing downturn is becoming a more distinct possibility as the economic cycle ages and inflation pressures grow he wrote further in other words the policy stakes are now very high and history provides a clear roadmap for the markets and lastly he says that the correlation between the S&P 500 over the past four years in the four years leading up to 1937 the top in 1937 is roughly 94 percent and 94 percent in a correlation over a four year period is significant and he lastly says that as he has suggested in the past price analogues are not very valuable on their own but when the fundamentals also parallel closely they become far more interesting and this is definitely very interesting and as I have told you recently and in the past I am looking for the point in time when the SNP reaches the previous high that we had in say early 2018 and at that high we're going to be at the maximum risk so we're looking very closely at that so it isn't necessarily the chart matchup that I'm looking at it's just simply we're looking up at a very large monster double top a potential double top so now let's go look at another very interesting chart so this chart here is a show you that parallels or analogs are not necessarily all that uncommon and this chart here comes from market anthropology and Eric Schwartz and basically what this chart shows or suggests is that the big unwind is taking place for stocks and the S&P 500 it shows parallels with silver and gold their moves from 7 years ago and on the chart here the the lighter color I believe the latter color is the S&P 500 and the darker color there is silver the lighter color ends there before the chart of silver does so you know that the one on the top is the S&P 500 and according to Eric Schwartz basically he believes he suspects that equity is the S&P 500 is taking the Long Goodbye very much along the lines of how silver and gold did when they exhausted their parabolic tops in 2011 and then declined and swartz points to similar action with the S&P 500 making a lower high recently below the January record close that we've talked about so many times and Swartz says that the espys rebound is over if it keeps acting like silver did or as he puts it should the comparative continue to prove prescient equities are now on the backside of the Long retracement rally that began in April now although analogs aren't necessarily all that uncommon they are somewhat interesting and again I'm not looking at these charts here per se I'm looking at my own charts showing that potential double top so keep your eyes open so for today that's chewed up charts thank you