저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 버핏 지표가 과열 구간이며 금리 인상·유동성 축소 전까지 주가 상승이 강제되는 상황이라 장기적으로 폭락 위험이 크다는 비관론. 버핏 지표(미국 시가총액/GDP)는 100%가 과열 기준인데 현재 약 150%로 2000년 닷컴버블과 금융위기 수준을 넘어섰다고 주장. 지표는 완벽한 타이밍 도구가 아니며 과거 고점·저점 경향이 있을 뿐이라고 단서를 달았다. 80~90% 이하면 저평가, 100% 이상이면 고평가로 본다. 버핏의 뱅크오브아메리카 투자(50억 달러, 우선주 전환권)는 일반 투자자가 누리지 못하는 특혜 조건이라 따라 사면 안 된다고 경고. 주가는 200일 이동평균선 위 연속 거래일 기록이 526일로 역대급이라고 언급. 양적완화 지속과 연준의 약 4조 달러 자산 보유로 주가가 인위적으로 떠받쳐지고 있어, 금리가 오르기 전까지 상승은 계속될 수 있지만 지속 불가능하다는 관점. 장단기 금리차(수익률 곡선) 역전 시 대개 경기침체·증시 폭락이 뒤따른다고 설명하되, 당장 즉시 폭락하는 것은 아니며 과거와 달리 중앙은행 개입으로 하락 폭이 제한되고 있다고 봄. 일본은행(BOJ)의 지속적 채권 매입 등 중앙은행 개입이 시장을 떠받치고 있다고 지적. 글로벌 주택시장 침체(런던·시드니·베이징·뉴욕·토론토)를 인용하며 국가 간 상호연결로 한 나라의 주택 하락이 타국에 파급될 수 있다고 주장. 미국 주택수요는 2년 만에 최대 감소(6월 기준 -9.6%). 고령자들이 집을 세놓아 생계를 꾸리는 현상을 언급하며 중앙은행 체제가 노년층 생활비 부담을 키운다고 비판. 구글·사이드워크랩스의 토론토 워터프런트 개발과 데이터 수집 문제를 비판적으로 다룸. 영상 내 대상 자산은 주로 미국 주식시장(S&P500 등 지수 수준)과 금리·주택시장이며, 개별 종목의 구체적 가격 전망은 없음.
다듬은 글
there are thousands and thousands of indicators to watch out for in the markets according to Warren Buffett there's one that stands out in particular this is often referred to as the Buffett indicator right now we have actually gone into the territory even more exaggerated than the financial crisis and the dot-com boom and bust what does that say about the stability of the market you came here for the truth so let me on the other for you today we're going to look at the stock market and then I want to connect that in with the real estate market to very connected issues because of one factor and that is interest rates let's begin with the buffett indicator this is a metric that Buffett uses to get an overall feel for the valuation of US stocks in fact he described it as the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment and that was in 2001 it's a fairly simple metric to calculate to just divide the total market cap of all US stocks by the latest GDP okay very simple to do and right now I'll show you the chart in just a second here but I wanted to read this to be clear no stock market metrics are 100% reliable at predicting Corrections crashes rallies stagnant stock markets after all if this were the case why wouldn't everybody know exactly when to buy and sell and hold in order to maximize their profits that being said the buffett indicator well it's not flawless does tend to peak during hot stock markets and bottom during weak markets as a general rule if the indicator falls below 80 or 90 percent that's when stocks are cheap if it's higher than 100 percent stocks are expensive all right so where do you think we are via the guess right now would you say it's towards the hundred percent or towards the 80 or 90 percent what do you think well take a look at this it's actually nearly a hundred and fifty percent I just told you that according to this indicator at 100 percent it is considered to be expensive to have stocks and we've gone far beyond that in fact based on this here it was right around this line so maybe 2014 2013 somewhere around there and of course that's by the way when qe3 was just finishing up it has continued to go up ever since because of quantitative easing around the rest of the world so the money finally makes its way around and there we go it had surpassed this level in the whole financial crisis timeframe and then we saw that coming down as stocks crashed you could see as well with the dot-com boom and bust how fast it had risen and what happened afterwards now remember it's divided by the GDP as well so during these contractions you also see GDP coming down too so it's not like just stocks this is a relationship between the two this is a ratio so even though GDP drops still still still you get these different evaluations that are occur over these years we didn't see enough of a crash unfortunately it just really came right back up to fast it would have been a good thing to seed actual problems being fixed now the reason I look at Warren Buffett and what he does and what he says and I think it is important it is not based on the actions that he does but how the market responds to him if you remember back in 2011 he bailed out Bank of America five billion dollars but he didn't pay the rates you and I would and that's why I would never bet on something because Warren Buffett did so that's not a good thing look at the bottom paragraph Buffett negotiated a favorable deal with the bank due to his investment acting as a public vote of confidence in the company's futures his five billion dollar investment in preferred shares came with the option to convert those common stock shares until 2021 he already sold off anyway and this made I think it's 12 billion dollars from this looking at this we can see that he has been able to get insider or sweetheart deals you and I can't get that but hey that's the way it works okay so don't ever look at the current valuation you're seeing today as being you know well Warren Buffett bought it so therefore I can buy it that should be taken factoring in the fact that he is getting a better deal than you and I could ever get now along the streaks above the 200-day moving average between 93 and 2018 right now we're at record levels it is insane to see this right now the streaks Total Return is lower than what we saw previous times but in terms of trading days it has actually exceeded this right now 526 and that was actually as of the end of last month so it's gone beyond that there is no possible way that this is ever gonna stop until we see the increased interest rates as they've been slowly inching towards and quantitative easing continues there's no possible way that this can continue under those conditions so in the meantime we definitely see this being forced upward here by all of the global quantitative easing measures and of course the fact that the Federal Reserve is still sitting on over four trillion dollars worth of garbage this is going to be an issue for quite some time even into 2019 we're still looking at practically the same amount when you really look at it it's embarrassing that they've suggested that they're going to engage in a tightening program starting in 2015 they started talking about this and here we are we're gonna be in 2019 is still gonna be nearly four trillion dollars worth a true embarrassment this you know if we look back 100 years into the future looking back till today and assuming that everything still in the way it is I which I highly doubt it will be but anyway they're going to be embarrassed about this timeframe okay quickly quickly moving on for session signal trouble loom troubles loom once the yield curve inverts now a couple things that I wanted to note at the fact that yes and this always happens here when we get to this zero mark it just happens okay we get the recession that occurs afterward that's not a hundred percent perfect of course just as soon as it goes over that zero then we're gonna have a crash the next day no no but this tends to happen like this what I've also noticed was because of the manipulation because of everything that the Federal Reserve and other central banks have been doing it's not falling to the degree it would have before previously you could see the aggressive nature in previous instances but not as much this time and I think that there have been supporting this stock market bond market and everything else more so than they ever have done before this is from several days ago but I think it is still relevant Friday's was the sixth BOJ fixed rate bond purchase operation they continuously intervene in the bond market buying up all the garbage in fact they've done so much that nobody else is really behind anymore it's just the Bank of Japan and they will continue to accumulate more and more bonds moving into the housing boom and perhaps bust this is Bloomberg actually a quote the end of the global housing boom that's what they said I'm gonna quickly just touch on a couple points from here if you want to read one article about the global housing crisis that's going on today you can definitely check the link I'll put it in the description or you can just do a search engine Bloomberg the end of the global housing boom you'll find it from London to Sydney and Beijing to New York house prices in some of the world's most sought after cities are heading south tax changes and to damp demand values out of kilter with vulnerability and tougher lending standards have combined to undermine the market that could have wider implications because the world's wealthy have been buying homes on multiple continents meaning a downturn in one country could now pose more of a threat to markets elsewhere that's the IMF saying that and I completely agree because people don't not realize that we are in 2018 wake up everybody this is globalization whether you like it or not something that happens in you know the UK is gonna affect you in Australia it's gonna affect you in Canada if something happens in the United States it's gonna have to happen in China it's gonna affect you in Dubai it's gonna have play a role in Argentina and Brazil there's no way around that I'm sorry to tell you but we are all interconnected you can see here it's gonna go through London's falling sales showing you a chart right there where you can see what has happened over the years Beijing buyers hold off yet and again another chart there Sydney also an issue there you can see the property prices falling Manhattan again another one Toronto don't even get me started on Toronto and it will go on so you can read this for yourself as I said Bloomberg article their housing demand sees biggest drop in more than two years housing demand found 9.6 percent in June compared with June 2017 according to redfin the number of people requesting home tours fell 6 percent while supply decline overall Redfern not a large increase in listings in some of the most supply starved markets which is where the home prices have overheated most so we're definitely going to see that as being an issue when you have too much inventory people have more choice people start to think to themselves well maybe I just hold off for a little bit you get that wait-and-see moment I could definitely see that going on in Toronto now now interconnected with that is this article here which I found interesting it's more about this personal story but I just wanted to touch on the fact that senior citizens are essentially using their home as a way to create income and I think that you know I want to show both sides of this number one the fact that it's a good business opportunity if somebody lives with you then obviously they're renting out a room or maybe a floor of your house you're gonna be able to make back some money that's great but if people need in order to live like this lady I'm sure she didn't want to have this happen but saw as an opportunity did so and actually the gentleman saved her life which is great but you know aside from that I just wanted to say the fact that there's a lot of people out there who are cash-strapped they need the money and that's why they're doing this we have a central banking system designed to make it impossible for you especially in your older age to be able to afford your life so people cut back up back up back and suddenly they're cutting back on things that are you know maybe not necessary but a lot of people do have them maybe more items that they would love to buy at the grocery store but they can't so they get the plain oatmeal and they get the you know processed meat for example and while you know you can subsist off that there's nothing necessarily wrong with that you know it would be nicer to get more fresh fruits and vegetables and whatever you want it and not have to worry about that I'm not talking about iPhones I'm not talking about Lamborghinis here I was talking about you know things that you may value right okay hold on in Toronto we have the waterfront and most of the waterfront is a piece of garbage and this area here is some of it anyway is going to be redeveloped by Google and sidewalk labs so they have an area which is a few acres they want to develop it from quote from the Internet up and in this area here it's going to be very much an unneeded thing to do okay that it looks terrible it's garbage they should demolish the whole thing and let it sink into the lake as far as I'm concerned it's just disgusting to see this true opinions coming out here but anyway so what we have is Google coming in and what they're gonna do is they're gonna collect information on people that live in this area that goes in this area to visit this area and walk around and everything that information is supposedly going to be transparent to you as the individual however what they bring up here a little opposition to that saying look if I opt out of this can I still live here are you saying I can't live in this area in in this newly built area there's gonna be candles gonna be restaurants are gonna be everything I can't live here if I don't opt-in to your data collection is that what's gonna occur and think about that so you let's say they say no you can't opt out it's just automatic what if they expand it what if they make it the whole downtown core what if they make it you know bigger and bigger bigger that's gonna be a huge problem and I think this is just the beginning I'm right here in the middle of it I want to see what happens if they do build up the city which will probably take 50 years knowing this government we are going to have an issue I'm gonna go over there and I'm gonna videotape it for you and I'm gonna show you exactly how it looks right from the ground okay that's all for this video if you found it informative please give me a thumbs up if you give me a thumbs up I will give you 100 Dillian Zimbabwe dollars okay and last but not least if you found the video informative I know you'll find my books thumb on GPS and my new release global economic collapse even more informative links are in the description below take care
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