저자: ChewDog · 외국인
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결론: 레이 달리오의 상반된 발언은 모순이 아니며, 이탈리아 기업·금융주에 대한 대규모 숏 포지션으로 설명되고 시장은 신저가 확산 등 약세 신호를 보이지만 과도한 공포는 필요 없다는 취지. 레이 달리오(브리지워터) 관련 - 달리오가 다보스에서 '현금을 보유하는 것은 어리석다'고 말한 발언과 '1980~81년 이후 최대 채권 약세장을 예상한다'는 발언이 상충해 보였음 - 블룸버그 보도에 따르면 브리지워터는 최근 3개월간 이탈리아 기업 대상 숏 베팅을 약 7억1,300만 달러에서 30억 달러로 세 배 이상 확대 - 주로 금융 섹터 중심이며 이탈리아 은행 5곳, 보험사 1곳 숏, 세계 최대 케이블 제조사 주가 하락에도 베팅 - 진행자는 이 숏 포지션이 해당 헤지펀드가 수년 이래 가진 최대 숏이라고 해석하며, 달리오는 시장 하락에 베팅하면서 현금 보유는 비판하는 방식으로 유연하게 움직인다고 평가 - 진행자 본인은 현재 시장에서 숏을 추천하지는 않음 시장 내부 지표(NYSE 신저가 vs 신고가) - 이번 주 NYSE에서 신저가 271개, 신고가 40개로 순신저가 227개, 거래 종목의 7.4%에 해당 - S&P500이 52주 고점 대비 2% 이내인 날 중 순신저가 비율 7% 초과는 1970년 이후 이번이 15번째 - 과거 사례는 1972년, 2000년, 2007년 등 천장 부근에서 나타난 경우가 많았으나, 시장 피해가 거의 없었던 때도 있었음 - 진행자는 우려하기보다 지켜보자는 입장 워런 버핏/버크셔 해서웨이 관련 - 버크셔가 사상 최대 수준인 약 1,090억 달러 현금 보유 - UBS는 현금과 잉여현금흐름을 합산해 1,600억 달러 규모의 대형 인수가 가능하다고 추정 - 유력 업종으로 유틸리티(전력)를 제시, 작년 전력사 Encore 인수 제안 실패 이력 언급 - 다만 현재 주식시장 밸류에이션이 역사적 고점이라 인수 대상이 지나치게 비쌀 수 있고, 버크셔 자체의 높은 주가 때문에 자사주 매입도 어렵다는 점을 장애 요인으로 제시 - 진행자는 버핏이 결국 현금을 투입할 것이며, 기회가 올 때 대비해 현금을 쌓아야 한다는 결론 전체적으로 단기 방향성에 대한 명확한 가격 예측은 제시되지 않았으며, 현금 비중 확대와 기회 대기를 강조하는 관망 성향의 메시지.
다듬은 글
hello as chewed-up charts when I woke up this morning I had a completely different plan for you today however I read three different news articles in one a big question for me was answered a question that I posed to you a few videos ago and number two there's an interesting chart with regard to the current evaluation that I think you'll find insightful and then lastly we're going to talk about Warren Buffett so let's take a look do you remember this picture of Ray Dalio he owns Bridgewater which is the largest hedge fund in the world with about a hundred and sixty billion dollars in assets and last week he was in Davos Switzerland and made two statements that were somewhat confusing to me in his first statement he said that it would be stupid to be holding cash and then later on in the same interview he said that he was expecting the largest bear market in bonds since the 1980-81 bear market and those two concepts to me were contradictory how could you want somebody to put their cash into the market and at the same time have a bear bond market and then we spent a few days talking about bonds and so hopefully you understand that contradiction well it wasn't a contradiction and this morning I have my answer according to Bloomberg the world's largest hedge fund tripled its bearish wagers against Italian companies in the last three months mainly focused on the financial sector bridgewater boosted its bearish bets against italian companies to three billion up from seven hundred and thirteen million in early october in addition to shorting five banks and one insurer public filings disclosed that the hundred and sixty billion dollar hedge fund was also betting on a decline in the stock price of the world's largest cable maker as well as shorting Italian and mega banks and an insurer and these make the short position the largest short position carried by the world's biggest hedge fund in years if not ever so what he was talking about with regard to don't hold caste because you're going to be stupid he's using it in the market but he's not going long he has a huge short position in the market now I'm not recommending URI goes short in the current market but at least it answers a question and now I do not see his two statements as contradictory he just has more flexibility and he is just a lot smarter than I am let's go to the next chart and this chart here which shows the NYSC net new lows which were greater than 7% of the issues traded and compared with the S&P 500 that closed less than 3% from a 52-week high and this week we saw 271 stocks on the NYSC closed at 52 we closed versus just 40 for new highs and that net difference of 227 more new lows than new highs represented 7.4 percent of all stocks traded on the NYSC and if you think that sounds like a lot you're right it is a lot and this chart shows that since 1970 the S&P 500 has closed within 2% of its 52-week high on more than 4,500 days and this week this is just the 15th time on such days that the number of net new lows totaled more than 7% of all stocks traded on the NYC and glancing at the chart it's apparent that several of the previous occurrences came at rather interesting periods including the near cycle tops in 1972 the year 2000 and the year 2007 however there were also times in the past have to that didn't inflict much if any damage on the market so is this condition really something to worry about well let's not worry let's just keep our eye on it let's now go and take a look at Warren Buffett and now just a little lesson from Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway and if you've been reading the news Berkshire Hathaway has a whole bunch of cash probably more cash than Berkshire Hathaway has ever had and so people are trying to figure out what will born Buffett do with all the cash and this morning UBS came out and indicated that they think that Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway should make a big acquisition one that could exceed maybe a hundred and sixty billion dollars and UBS arrived at that figure by factoring in the record one hundred and nine billion of cash at Berkshire actually has on hand and combine it with the company's free cash flow so that's how they come up with a hundred and sixty billion so as for which industry Berkshire may pursue UBS thinks that utilities are a good bet because after all the company Berkshire Hathaway its energy unit made an unsuccessful offer for the electricity provider encore last year and Berkshire may still be interested in that energy sector there's one possible impediment to all that which is that equities right now the stock market is trading at historically high valuations and this could make some potential targets prohibitively expensive and so with that said Berkshires own high valuation could prevent it from using US cash to buy back its own shares so that makes it even more likely that Berkshire Hathaway will use this capital on something other than a buyback but he's going to buy this time so today we just need to take a quick lesson from Warren Buffett and keep stacking that cash because an opportunity is going to come around the corner and when it does you'll want to be ready to take advantage so for today that's two table charts thank you
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