저자: ChewDog · 외국인
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결론: 알리바바는 장기적으로 사이클이 매끄러워 매매하기 좋은 종목이지만, 현재는 아직 바닥 전이라 지금 매수는 권하지 않고 기다리라는 입장이다. [기관 동향] 브리지워터(레이 달리오)가 2분기에 알리바바 약 84,629주(약 1,570만 달러)를 매수했고, 평균 단가는 주당 약 185달러로 추정된다. 같은 시기 SPDR 금 ETF 390만 주와 아이셰어즈 은 트러스트 1,130만 주도 보유 중이다. [배경] 브리지워터는 작년 9월 중국 현지 금융시장 거래 허가를 받아 중국 투자 펀드를 출범시켰다. 달리오는 3월 링크드인에서 무역 전쟁 확대를 우려했으나, 알리바바는 중국 e-커머스 매출의 약 85%를 차지해 무역분쟁 충격을 상대적으로 덜 받는다는 논리다. [주가 흐름] 2분기 알리바바 주가는 약 4% 상승했으나, 최근 약 7% 하락했다. [차트 분석] 월봉 MACD는 고점 이후 하락 중이며 아직 바닥 신호가 없다. 상대강도는 약 50 수준으로 곧 50 아래로 내려갈 것으로 보며, 스토캐스틱도 하락 중이다. 윌리엄스 %R은 곧 바닥을 칠 것으로 보고, 2015년 말 바닥 때 윌리엄스 바닥과 주가 바닥이 일치했다. 일봉에서는 단기 바닥 형성 조짐이 보이며 MACD 빠른선이 바닥을 찍고 횡보 후 상승할 것으로 예상했다. [결론 및 조언] 장기 사이클은 매력적이나 무역분쟁 등 리스크가 있어, 횡보(조정) 구간을 기다린 뒤 펀더멘털 분석을 거쳐 고려하라고 권한다. 2015년 말 바닥이 아닌 2016년 초 진입이 더 나았을 것이라는 점에서 인내를 강조했다. 현재 매매는 추천하지 않는다. [리스크] 미중 무역분쟁 불확실성, 기술주 변동성.
다듬은 글
recent 13f filings show that Ray Dalio zhh Bridgewater associates maintained a 3.9 million shares of Spyder gold shares which is the largest bullion backed ETF and eleven point three million in ice shares Gold Trust which is the second largest Bridgewater also took a big stake in Alibaba and that's what we're going to talk about today so let's take a look Bridgewater associates and Ray Dalio bought eighty four thousand six hundred and twenty nine shares of Alibaba in the second quarter worth about fifteen point seven million dollars according to a regulatory document filed recently a back-of-the-envelope calculation shows that this stake was established at an average price of around a hundred and eighty five dollars per share Alibaba is one of the markets most heavily traded tech stocks and part of the Fang bat basket which also includes Facebook Amazon Apple Netflix Google and Chinese tech giants Baidu Alibaba and ten cent Bridgewater's buying of Alibaba shouldn't come as a surprise last September the hedge fund launched a big investment fund in China as it was granted rare access to trade in local financial markets in a linkedin post from March Dalio wrote that an escalating tit for tat trade war would be a reason to worry but this investment is a way for Dalio to gain exposure to China without having to worry about the impact of a trade war with China that's because the e-commerce giant is responsible for about 85 percent of e-commerce sales in China which helps provide insulation from the trade spat Alibaba shares gained 4 percent in the second quarter despite Trump's tariff trade spat with China however shares have recently slumped by about 7 percent let's go take a look at my charts we're taking a look at the monthly chart on Alibaba and the symbol is ba-ba and for disclosure purposes although I do not currently hold any shares of Alibaba I have played this stock in the past and the reason why I played it in the past as you can see here it has a nice smooth cycle so relatively easy to play we can move on down here into the MACD and you can see what I'm talking about peak up here a nice move on down on back up and it looks like now we're heading on down so I think Rae perhaps is a little bit early because we're on our way down and I think the price is going to consolidate more here yeah you see that here in the Mac histogram we're continuing to head on down no real stopping point yet relative strength is about 50 but I think that's going to go below 50 here relatively soon and that is also indicated by the stochastics they're heading on down as well the volume looks just fine a bit of red here in the last few months but not a real big deal and then into the William so the Williams is going to hit bottom here pretty soon and we can take a look at this period of time back here in late 2015 when it hit bottom let's go back up to the price chart and that hit at the bottom with the Williams coincided here with a bottom in the price in that late 2015 but it might have been a little bit better just a hold on or hold off of buying the stock for a little bit longer to make sure that all the risk is run out of that stock so maybe taking a position in early 2016 would have been better and that's basically the same suggestion I'm going to make here is this has some time before it's going to hit bottom so just simply be patient but now let's go to the daily chart this is the six-month daily chart and Alibaba I wanted to look at the long-term chart as well as a short-term chart here simply to show you that these cycles are relatively smooth and somewhat predictable so a nice move in the cycle up down up and back down again and we're starting to bottom here at least on the short-term basis and you can see that here as well I think the fast line on the Mac is probably going to bottom here and I would imagine that it's going to move sideways and then up relatively shortly and here into the histogram you can see that as well and then the relative strength index this has got a relatively decent dis choppy it shows that it's choppy but this is actually a relatively nice sort of cycle in stocke so again on a long-term basis I really like the way the cycle is it makes it easier to buy and sell or trade if you will and that is also indicated here in the stochastics and moving down the williams is also as well very very cyclical so I like this stock for that reason but as I had indicated earlier I think it's still a little bit too early on a long term basis I'm not going to recommend trading this currently simply we do have some problems in the trade dispute so who knows what's going to happen but on a longer-term basis wait for that consolidation and then perhaps Alibaba might be a stock that you can consider once you conduct your fundamental analysis so for today that's Chu Dawg charts thank you
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