저자: ChewDog · 외국인
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결론: 빌 애크먼의 스타벅스 매수 소식을 근거로 차트상 바닥 가능성을 보며 상승을 예상하는 영상이다. 애크먼 헤지펀드 배경: 과거 발리언트 파마슈티컬스 손실(30억 달러 이상), 보더스 파산, 허벌라이프 공매도 실패 등 실패 사례가 언급되며, 2018년 2월 허벌라이프 공매도 전량 청산 보도가 소개된다. 애크먼의 과거 성공 사례: 2008년 금융위기 때 MBIA CDS 투자, 웬디스·제너럴그로스 프로퍼티·캐나다퍼시픽철도 투자 성과가 언급된다. 스타벅스 포지션: 최근 90일간 애크먼이 약 9억 달러 규모 지분을 확보했으며, 그가 주가가 두 배가 될 것으로 본다고 전해진다. 차트 분석(20년 월봉): 2015년 말 이후 두 추세선 사이에서 횡보해 왔고, MACD는 하락 후 리셋 구간에 있어 바닥일 수 있다고 본다. 스토캐스틱·윌리엄스 지표도 바닥 형성 가능성을 시사한다고 설명한다. 거래량: 대체로 횡보하며 최근 몇 달간 소폭 증가했다. 매매 전략: 바로 매수하기보다 소폭 조정을 기다렸다가 진입하는 것을 고려하라고 제시한다. 리스크: 발표자는 펀더멘털 분석을 병행하라고 덧붙이며 면책을 강조한다. 전망: 발표자는 이번 스타벅스 투자가 애크먼의 성공 사례(hit)가 될 것이라고 본다.
다듬은 글
bill ackman has seen better days his hedge fund Pershing Square Holdings was once the envy of money managers everywhere boasting a 40 percent return for 2014 however due to the implosion of valiant pharmaceuticals and his battle with Carl Icahn over Herbalife Pershing squares returns have been severely diminished it was reported that in February 2018 Ackman exited his entire 1 billion dollar short against Herbalife the fun faced the wave a redemption from institutional investors like the Blackstone Group and many asset managers like JP Morgan are no longer recommending it to clients so what is Bill Ackman doing now well let's take a look Ackman has had some hits during his career one of Ackman's biggest successes came even before he founded Pershing in 2002 Ackman was one of the first investors who noticed something was amiss in the credit default swaps against mortgage-backed collateral debt obligations Ackman acted on his hunch by purchasing his own credit default swaps against m bia after five years of slugging it out with MBIA Ackman's persistence paid off as the bond insurers shares and debt ratings plunged during the 2008 financial crisis and then there was wendy's wendy's was one of Eggman's first successes at the helm of pershing in 2004 Pershing took a large stake in the fast food chain and successfully pressured management to spin off its Tim Hortons brand Ackman would later exit his position at a substantial profit and then General Growth Properties arguably one of the best hedge fund trades of all time was Pershing squares turn around a troubled mall operator General Growth Properties from the brink of bankruptcy netting the hedge fund a whopping 1.6 billion dollar return on a 60 million dollar investment and then there was Canadian Pacific Railway in 2011 after Pershing acquired a 14 point 2 percent stake in Canadian Pacific Railway a proxy battle between the CP board and Ackman's hedge fund ensued eventually Pershing emerged victorious CP stock rose from $49 per share to $220 per share and Pershing sold its stake valued at about 1.45 billion dollars but Ackman has had some misses including Valeant Pharmaceuticals Pershing originally bought into valiant at about a hundred and eighty dollars a share but after accusations of fraud shady conference calls and horrible earnings Pershing Square sold its entire position taking a loss of more than three billion dollars and then there was borders group another misstep in Ackman's career was his activist position in the borders group after taking a stake in the bookseller in 2006 and boosting his holdings in 2008 Ackman entered into loan agreements as borders tried to find a buyer even after pledging a nine hundred and sixty million dollar financing for borders to take over Barnes and Nobles which ultimately went nowhere borders declared bankruptcy in 2011 losing Pershing Square hundreds of millions of dollars and then there was herb 'life perhaps the biggest trade associated with Bill Ackman was his short of Herbalife arguing that the company was a pyramid scheme within an intrinsic value of zero ahmed entered into a short position worth 1 billion dollars in 2012 in the weeks following his short position Ackman saw Herbalife shares plunge around 60% but the company proved remarkably resilient and rebounded to its pre short levels thus costing Ackman millions as a February of 2018 Ackman has reportedly exited his entire short bet on Herbalife so what is Ahmed up to today over the past 90 days Bill Ackman has amassed a stake of about 900 million dollars in Starbucks he thinks the stock will double so we're looking here at the 20-year monthly chart on Starbucks and as simple as s be UX and for disclosure purposes I do not hold any shares of Starbucks now I've taken the liberty of drawing these two trend lines the upper and the lower here this is basically where Starbucks has been trading since late 2015 up and down between these two trend lines so more or less sideways it did take a drop here in mid 2018 but has been sense trending on up and in part by the announcement of Ackman's position what I like about this is we've been trending sideways while at the same time the MACD has talked and has been heading on down getting ready for a reset down here so this may be the bottom I don't know yet I'd like to see the fast lane moved through the slow line but in my opinion it has a good chance of doing that here's another example back in 2009 but this reset here is near the zero line so it could be relatively powerful looking at the histogram we definitely have an upward trend there here in the relative strength somewhat the same as the Mac a downward trend with perhaps a bottom setting in and then perhaps on up we go stochastic showing much the same as well perhaps a bottoming process here and then down into the volume the volume has been trending sideways for the most part with a slight uptick here in the last few months or so and the Williams looks like at bottom here as expected but then again possibly here in mid 2018 and it looks like it wants to head up and on its way back up into the price chart now with the price moving on up perhaps in part because with the announcement of Ackman steak I would sit on this and wait for maybe a little bit of a pullback but as well you need to conduct your fundamental analysis so keep an eye open on this one it just may do quite well is this going to be one of ACMA's hits or misses I think it's going to be a hit but please once again conduct your fundamental analysis and so for today that's qu Dawg charts
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