Is AMD Stock Going Up Or Down?

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결론: AMD 주가는 하락할 가능성이 크며 당분간 관망(회피)을 권한다. [애널리스트 전망 - New Street Research] - 애널리스트 Pyrrha Farrago는 AMD 주가가 약 30% 하락해 약 27달러에서 18달러로 밀릴 수 있다고 봤다. - 현재 주가가 2020년 주당순이익 약 1.50달러를 반영한다고 계산했으나, 이를 달성하려면 서버 CPU 25억 달러, PC CPU 32억 달러 매출이 필요해 비현실적이라고 평가. - 2020년 주당이익은 약 0.84달러로 추정. [경쟁 구도] - Intel이 AMD와 경쟁하는 구도에서 AMD가 불리하다는 주장. - Intel이 AMD와 유사하거나 더 나은 성능의 아키텍처를 쉽게 출시할 수 있다고 봤다. - 7나노 서버 프로세서는 게임 체인저가 아니라고 평가. [최근 이슈] - 지난달 Intel 10나노 칩 공급 차질 전망으로 AMD 주가가 랠리했으나, 이 재료의 효과는 제한적이라는 시각. - Moody's가 AMD를 상향 조정했다는 소식도 언급. [투자자 동향] - 로빈후드 등 젊은 투자자들이 최근 3주간 AMD를 순매도, 투자자 수 약 1만 3천여 명(약 8.1%) 감소. [차트 분석 - ChewDog] - 20년 월봉 기준 2006년, 2009년 고점·저점 패턴이 현재 형태와 유사해 고점이 이미 형성됐을 가능성. - 2018년 초 10달러 미만에서 30달러 이상으로 약 3배 상승한 후 하락 전환. - MACD, RSI, 스토캐스틱에서 상승 모멘텀 약화(다이버전스) 확인, 거래량 급증 후 하락 전환 가능성. - 매도세가 이미 시작됐다고 판단하며 하락폭은 특정하지 않음. [결론 및 조건] - 펀더멘털이 개선될 때까지 현 시점에서는 AMD를 피할 것을 권고. - 리스크: 재료(Intel 생산 차질, 7나노 출시 등)에 따른 단기 반등 가능성.

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01. Advanced Micro Devices was up about 61% this year but AMD is in a tough position competing with Intel last month analysts expected Intel to under supply its 10 nanometer chip AMD would be expected to benefit however analysts from new Street research expects AMD shares to tumble by 30 percent let's take a look AMD is in a tough position competing with Intel and shares will finally be dragged down due to comparative disadvantages in this competition with Intel and that is according to new street research AMD's stock price reflects a scenario we don't believe possible said Pyrrha farrago an analyst at new Street Research and a note sent up to clients on Friday he sees shares tumbling by 30% from almost $27 per share to $18 per share by fara goos calculation AMD's current share price should be equivalent to a buck 50 per share earnings in 2020 and to achieve that the chip makers should sell at least 2.5 billion dollars of server CPUs and 3.2 billion dollars worth of PC CPUs which in fair goos eyes is impossible especially when AMD is competing with Intel in the processor area Intel can easily bring to market an architecture or similar to a MDS with better performance said farrago he estimates that AMD's 2020 profit to be about 84 cents per share AMD shares have been boosted by Intel's 10 nanometer chip delay last month shares of AMD rallied after analyst predicted that Intel would under supply its 10 nanometer chips by 15 percent benefiting AMD in the server and PC market and while the rating agency Moody's recently upgraded AMD saying it has sped up sampling 7 nanometer server processors which in theory provide better performance than 10 nanometer was farrago believes the 7 nanometer chips won't be a game-changer he added that back in 2014 Intel the latest 14 nanometer chip deployment but neither its PC CPU or server CPU revenue had largely been impacted and millennial investors are dumping AMD from their portfolios on robhinhood which is a no fee trading app popular among young traders over the past three weeks AMD saw the biggest decline in the number of investors with a net drop of 13,000 677 investors or a drop of about eight point one percent so let's take a quick look at AMD's chart we're looking at the 20-year monthly chart on Advanced Micro Devices then the symbol is AMD for disclosure purposes I do not hold any shares in AMD looking back in history just here with the price chart we see the top there in 2000 with the bottom coming in 2000 to 2003 a top here in early 2006 and then the bottom in 2009 and just looking at those formations it to me looks very similar to this current formation here I think we may have seen the top at that point there we came from under $10 a share in early 2018 to above 30 so that's a triple a triple this year up to that point now we've come down since then and I think that actually is going to continue coming down let's look at the oscillators looking at the MACD we had a top there a top here and I think we're going to be forming a top here someplace relative to that level they're moving down to the histogram shows much the same the price rate of change is not all that revealing but into the RSI we start to see that we did have a move here in 2016 to 2017 this move here is not as high that'll be important we'll get to that in a second moving down to the stochastics we see the same thing here this move here and then the lower move at that point there and into volume volume looks great it had a very good spike in volume in the last few years but I think that's going to be its undoing here soon enough we'll show you that Williams did have this move here and then the subsequent move that had in 2018 to that point there so why is that important going on back up here this is the move a much stronger move that only brought us up to about $15 a share and that subsequent weaker move brought us up to above $30 a share because that subsequent move was weaker I think that it's going to erode and we're going to have a sell-off I don't know how far we're going to go down but in my humble opinion the sell-off has started and I think this price is just going to continue to erode so in my opinion I'd stay away from AMD for the current time frame and wait until the fundamentals improve so for today that's Chu Dawg charts thank you