저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 좋은 투자는 본질적으로 역발상이며, 시장 극단에서 군중 심리와 반대로 행동해야 수익이 난다. 가치투자 원칙: 본질가치 대비 가격이 낮으면 매수, 높으면 매도한다. 가격과 본질가치의 괴리를 결정하는 핵심 요인은 투자자의 감정·심리·투자 심리(센티멘트)다. 군중 심리: 사람들이 열광·낙관하면 가격이 본질가치보다 높아져 위험과 낮은 수익의 원천이 되고, 비관·외면하면 가격이 본질가치보다 낮아져 큰 기회가 된다. 사고의 차별화: 모두가 같은 뉴스·보고서를 보기 때문에 같은 감정을 느끼기 쉽다. 남들과 다르게 생각하는 '2차적 사고'가 필요하며, 이는 쉽지 않다. 감정 절제: 사람들이 낙관하는 정점에서는 방어적으로, 비관하는 바닥에서는 공격적으로 행동해야 한다. 감정 절제의 중요성과 방법을 아는 것이 핵심이다. 정점·바닥의 증거: 가격이 역대 최고라는 사실 자체가 낙관이 우세하다는 증거이며, 가격이 극단적으로 낮다는 것은 대다수가 비관하고 있다는 증거다. 시장 예측의 빈도: 저자는 50년간 시장 예측을 단 5번만 했다고 아들이 지적했다고 소개한다. 극단에서만 판단해야 한다는 뜻이다. 인내와 기회주의: 극단이 아닌 곳에서 시장을 예측하려 하면 대개 실패한다. 『투자에서 가장 중요한 것』에서 강조하듯, 할 일이 없을 때 똑똑해 보이려는 시도가 실수다. 결론적 조언: 시장 극단에서만 과감히 행동하면 자주 하지 않아도 성과에 큰 도움이 된다. 주간·월간·연간 단위가 아니라 극단에서만 통하는 원칙이다. 영상 말미에는 책 『투자에서 가장 중요한 것』 구매를 권유한다.
다듬은 글
I am a value investor. I try to determine the intrinsic value of a situation. I like to buy if the price is low relative to the intrinsic value, and I like to sell if the price is high relative to the intrinsic value. What is the main determinant of this relationship? It's the investor's emotion, psychology, and sentiment.
If people are excited and optimistic about an asset, there's a good chance its price will be higher than its intrinsic value, and of course, this is a source of danger and a source of lower-than-normal returns. But if investors are pessimistic and unenthusiastic, and they've abandoned the asset, there's a good chance its price will be low relative to its intrinsic value, and this is a source of great opportunity.
So we want to buy when people are depressed and pessimistic, and we want to sell when people are optimistic and enthusiastic. But the difficulty is that the emotions or psychology of many people— I use these terms interchangeably— it's not easy to say why most people's emotions fluctuate in the same way.
We are all subject to the same influences. We all read the same headlines. We all hear the same stories on television. We all see the same economic reports. So the things that excite others and make them positive and optimistic tend to excite us and make us positive and optimistic. Therefore, the things that force people to bid on stocks and drive up prices are the same forces that excite us and push us to buy when prices are high and sell when prices are low.
So the fact is, if your thoughts and emotions are the same as everyone else's, then you can't have the outside thinking—what I call second-level thinking— that is necessary to act against what we hear. The common word is that it's upsetting, and to sell at prices that are high because others are optimistic and buy at prices that are low because others are depressed.
We have to be aggressive when people are depressed and defensive when people are excited. In other words, we have to think and feel differently from others, and that's not easy. We have to be either Unemotional people need to learn the importance of emotional restraint and how to do it, and these things aren't easy, so most people are unable to do it.
You know, it's been proven that most people are optimistic at the peak, and that's proof that it's a peak. The proof is that prices are higher than ever. This can only happen if optimism prevails over pessimism. And it's been proven that people are depressed when prices hit the bottom, and low prices are proof that prices can only be that low relative to their intrinsic values if most people are depressed.
So we need to be enthusiastic when they're depressed and we need to be defensive when they're enthusiastic, and that's a difficult thing to do. And let me tell you, I know you're ready to talk, but let me tell you one more thing. One reason it's difficult to do is because there aren't many opportunities to do it.
I was talking to my son, those of you who have read the memos I've done I refer to my son Andrew in the memos from time to time, and we work together on investing. I mentioned that I was working on the book, and I told him, "You know, I really think my market calls were correct." He said, "Yes, Dad, that's because you've only made five market calls in 50 years." And it's true that if you wait for an extreme market, when it's really high or really low, and you only make your calls on those occasions, I believe that at those times the error in the cycle is obvious.
And if you come to that correct conclusion, there's a good chance it will work if you don't make mistakes. If you're impatient and try to make market calls anywhere other than at the extremes, I think the logic will be difficult, and I think it's unlikely you'll be able to do it often. So the things I recommend in the book wo n't work on a weekly, monthly, or annual basis; they'll only work at the extremes.
And if you know that most people do n't have that kind of patience, then he tries to make Make market calls more often, but when you're not close to an extreme, they won't work. Those of you who read the first book know there's a chapter that says the most important things are patience and opportunism.
I think the phrase means that when there's nothing smart to do, the mistake is trying to be smart. So, trying to make these calls other than at the market extremes is a mistake. You can't do it often, but if you do it at the market extremes, it's extremely profitable, and you don't have to do it often.
But if you do it at the true extremes, it's extremely profitable, and you don't need to do it often for it to bring a real boost to your performance. This video is finished. If you want to learn more about how to invest in Wardmarks, you can read the book "The Most Important Thing," available on Amazon, and you'll find the link in the description. Don't forget to subscribe so you don't miss the next videos. See you soon!
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