저자: Farzad · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 주가가 하루 약 9.5% 급락한 상황에서, 기가 텍사스 증설 허가와 멕시코 신공장 소식 등을 근거로 사업 펀더멘털은 유지된다고 주장. 머스크 주식 매도는 내부정보 규정상 악재 신호로 보기 어렵다고 해석. 연말 가격 인하는 1월 세액공제 전 수요 조정이며 이후 마진 개선 가능성 언급. 브랜드 훼손 우려는 일부 집단에 한정된다고 평가. 전방 PER 17배는 성장과 사업 다각화를 고려하면 저평가일 수 있다고 제시하나, 시장 판단은 존중하라는 입장.
다듬은 글
hello everybody happy Thursday so much noise so much to talk about Tesla at the time of this recording is now nine percent but I'm doing a lot of diligence to ensure that the long-term fundamentals of Tesla are intact and to really test to see if there's really a demand problem or if there's anything else that's hurting the core story of Tesla let's get started news came out about an hour ago from the time of this recording Sawyer Merit on Twitter shout out Sawyer news Tesla files permits for more work at Giga Texas construction will start on December 27th 2022 for a ground up and complete interior finish out of the EV manufacturing facility the project covers 174 000 square feet and will cost 58 million dollars based on permit and so the signal I'm getting from these news is that I doubt a company would be investing into its growth if it felt uncomfortable about the prospects of that growth and so Giga Texas says production ramp is still continuing either for model y or any new products the second piece that I'm thinking through is that Elon Musk did sell quite a bit of stock this year he saw upwards of 40 billion dollars worth of Tesla stock but there's one core principle that's very important that's tied to him being able to sell these shares the Securities Exchange Commission or the SEC in the United States has a very strict no trading on material non-public information an Insider should never trade the company's stock while you are in possession of material non-public information about the company so what this implies is that when Elon Musk was selling shares about two weeks ago maybe a little bit longer than that now he wouldn't have been able to sell those shares by law if he had some sort of data point that said what I'm telling you guys in public is actually change specially for the negative and the two key statements that were made at the last quarter is that there is a restatement of 50 growth year over year on average and that Q4 was going to be epic now of course epic is subjective nobody really knows what that is not to mention that Elon Musk once again has come to Twitter and said this as a buying opportunity believe him or not if he has indeed sold shares but he had some sort of material in information that would tell the investors hey our company is performing worse than we actually told you then he would get in really really serious trouble and so this is another signal that tells me that the trajectory of the company is intact next again from Sawyer mayor on Twitter seems like he's always on my channel nowadays news according to a new report Tesla will be building a new Factory in Nuevo Leon Mexico and they say the news is expected to become public in early 2023 millennio says that the plant will be installed to the west of the municipality of Santa Catarina so again as the first point would Tesla invest in growing its business if it was unsure about the prospects of the growth this is another signal that tells me that Tesla's trajectory is intact now on the flip side news broke last night that Tesla is lowering its price across the board by seventy five hundred dollars as you know the inflection reduction Act is kicking in January 1st in the United States which gives every single EV buyer up to 7 500 in EV tax credit and here comes Sawyer again with the new 7 500 discounted in the U us for people who take delivery by the end of this year their rear wheel drive model 3 effectively now starts at 39 490 factoring the 10 000 Mile free supercharger Tesla is giving and that's another one thousand dollars in savings roughly let's give a little bit more Nuance to this story and for the model y long range including the 7500 discount the starting price is still 19.4 percent above where it was in March 2021.
49 000 starting price in late December 2022 it's a 58 000 starting price including the new end of year 7 500 discount and so I view this in two ways one the model Y is still quite well positioned from a margin perspective to do extremely well especially going into 2023 knowing that the 7 500 Credit in the US is going live in January this is probably a preparation by Tesla to ensure there is no real gap between now and the end of the year knowing that buyers are probably waiting for that discount to kick in come January on the flip side though this also means that come January very first if Tesla doesn't need to cut additional prices Tesla will receive those 7 500 back essentially as pure profit to the business which could be a huge boost to earnings but we'll have to wait and see until q1 2023's earnings to actually confirm this statement now as far as some of the potential divisive tweets that Elon has been having on Twitter and some of the noise surrounding his personal brand Robert scoble on Twitter demand problem with Tesla in Liberal quote unquote Silicon Valley I have never seen so much activity at the Fremont Factory Store in California and this was posted roughly an hour ago at the date of this recording and so this is just a very very small data point that tells me that hey even though there's a lot of noise there are people buying Teslas there are people going to service centers or people going to stores even in a place that subjectively could be called quite liberal some of the fears that I'm hearing from a lot of the Tesla investors is that hey Elon taking one side or being perceived as taking one side is going to be a huge detriment to the Tesla brand and people's ability to purchase this of cars but this is a data point that's potentially counter to that statement in addition going down the line of Elon Musk potentially being a toxic brand or a brand that could impact Tesla Mr Beast the largest YouTuber in the world asked earlier today can I be the new Twitter CEO of course Elon replied it's not out of the question I had to retweet it and additionally Marquez Brownlee who has the YouTube channel MKBHD I highly recommend you check that out he also runs an auto review Channel called autofocus and two days ago he published this video Tesla Model S plaid owners review things I love and hate and in the description he said there are things I love and hate about this car but ultimately it's my favorite daily driver after 30 000 miles this video was posted two days ago and so the signal I'm getting from this is would Marquez who has over 16 million YouTube subscribers and Mr Beast who has over 122 million subscribers can you help me get a little bit closer by subscribing at least like the video thank you love you with the these folks actually be willing to say associate themselves with a toxic brand If there really was something very very bad happening with Elon Musk as the individual this is a signal that tells me that a lot of the concerns on the noise is potentially very very much in our bubble and as I try to talk to random people and try to talk to people from different political backgrounds it does seem like this concern around Elon potentially being a drag on Tesla's brand and Tesla sales is likely not impactful especially in a world where a lot of these concerns are primarily U.S politic driven and the fact that you have large discounts kicking in in January 1st I really think as it stands right now this has no impact on Tesla's long-term trajectory but I will continue to monitor Elon musk's tweets on Twitter and then lastly as of 2 45 PM as you heard at the beginning of the video Tesla stock is down to 124 dollars down 9.5 percent at the time of the snapshot this implies a trailing 12-month PE of about 39 which is the first time Tesla has ever gone Below 40pe in the history of the stock and with the forward price earnings of 17 unexpected 23 billion dollars of earnings for next year on about 2 million deliveries and so my question becomes is it fair to Value Tesla stock at a 17 forward price earnings ratio when a lot of the signals say at least from my research that the growth story of Tesla is intact that the profitability of Tesla is potentially intact that some of the brand damage concerns although it definitely impacts the subset of the population does it actually impact the fundamental story of the company and of course we're not talking about Tesla energy we're not talking about Tesla full self-driving we're not talking about the Cyber truck any new products that come along we're not talking about Tesla bot and so there's a lot of variables still at play that get lost in a lot of the noise that's happening short term and so the question for me is is a PE of 17 a fair valuation for Tesla given all its growth and all the different businesses it's working in and if so is the market missing out on one of the best opportunities for 2023 and so obviously that's not for me to decide the market will do whatever it wants especially in a bear market and ultimately it's your decision to decide what you want to do with this situation my ultimate goal is that I'm being helpful in your research and that these are valuable data points for you to make your own decisions let me know in the comments what you think what do you think about the current valuation of Tesla are you afraid about some of the demand fears some of the brand damage how do you think a potential recession is going to cause demand issues for Tesla what about the FED rates there's so many things to talk about please leave a comment below if you'd like to talk about this and many other topics consider supporting the channel through patreon or right here through YouTube you'll have access to my private Discord where I'm building a super awesome community that I'm extremely proud of and you're also noticing that I'm wearing a shirt that says Embrace gray and a lot of people are probably like what is you have 50 Shades of Gray fan no I've never read the book my wife has I think but really this is the mentality that I'm embracing during this time there's a lot of noise there's a lot of craziness there's a lot of extreme thinking here oh my God Tesla is going to collapse but in reality the world is gray there's a lot of nuance there's a lot of in between things that we have to sift through and we really discover and this is what inspired me to make this shirt so if you like the shirt and you like to support the channel consider purchasing the shirt using the link in the description below thank you so much for watching I hope this was helpful and we'll see you in the next one mwah happy Thursday Everybody Take It Easy bye
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