저자: ElonMusk,JensenHuang대담—발언자소속은제목·설명기준미상처리가능,출연자중심요약 · 외국인
요약 보기
머스크는 휴머노이드 로봇과 AI가 빈곤을 없애고 노동이 선택사항이 될 것이라 주장. 젠슨 황은 AI가 검색 기반에서 생성형 컴퓨팅으로 전환되며 AI 팩토리 수요가 커진다고 설명. 사우디 AI 파트너십과 500MW급 데이터센터 계획(xAI·Humain, AWS 참여)을 발표. 머스크는 5년 내 우주 태양광 AI 위성이 가장 저렴한 AI 연산 방식이 될 것이라 예측. 황은 컴퓨팅이 CPU에서 가속기로 이동 중이며 AI 버블 우려에 반박.
다듬은 글
How do you manage to always disrupt every single industry? Well, it's mostly not disruption, it's creation. So, with say SpaceX, with reusable rockets, there really weren't any reusable rockets. But the essence of getting of revolutionizing space travel is reusability. If you throw the rocket away every time, the cost of access to space is extremely high.
With respect to electric cars, there weren't any electric cars when we started making them really. You couldn't buy any to the best of my knowledge. With Tesla, we wanted to make electric cars compelling and affordable. That was the goal. With respect to humanoid robotics, there are no useful humanoid robots at this point.
Um, there are sort of gimmicks, but there are no actually useful humanoid robots. I think Tesla's going to make the first actually useful humanoid robots. And this will be quite a revolution. And I think something that will that everyone will want because I always think of like who who wouldn't want their own personal C3PO R2-D2.
Oh yeah, of course everyone would want one, right? And and then there would be many in industry providing products and services. This is why I say that humanoid robots will be the biggest industry or the biggest product ever bigger than cell phones or anything else because everyone's going to want one and uh or maybe more than one and there'll be many in industry.
I just want R2-D2 in C3PO's body. Well, I mean a human robot would be better than R2-D2 and C3PO combined. Yeah. Times 10. and and you know people often talk about eliminating poverty and that kind of thing but really the there's how long have they been talking about that? There's lots of talk there's lots of NOS's sort of trying to do these things but really not succeeding.
The evidence speaks for itself. AI and humanoid robots will actually eliminate poverty and Tesla won't be the only one that makes them. I think Tesla will pioneer this but there will be many other companies that make humanoid robots. But there is only basically one way to make everyone wealthy and that is AI and robotics.
And we can't talk about robotics without AI factories. And yesterday was such a historic day for the two nations but also for all of us where we celebrate the AI strategic partnership with the US s signed witnessed by the honorable president and his royal highness about how we are committing our capital energy land to energize the AI US ecosystem to be able to build inference node training nodes and to be the most AI enabled nation.
With that announcement, tell me what's what's next in AI factories. Jensen, there's a beautiful story about how Saudi Arabia's building AI refineries now building AI fac or oil refineries to AI factories. I love that. I've said that that AI is an infrastructure and the reason for that, of course, we understand AI from the perspective of the technology and how it's revolutionizing every industry.
Digital intelligence of course has applications into every every field and so it's going to be used by every company, every industry, every country. In that way, it's foundational and therefore it's part of infrastructure. What is new about AI from a computer science perspective is that the way computing was done in the past was largely retrievalbased computing.
Somebody typed in a story or somebody created a a piece of art or came came up with four versions of a digital ad or it's all pre-built by somebody which is then using a system to retrieve the appropriate version for you. It's a retrievalbased computing model. Hadoop and many of the the the frameworks and operating systems of the past all designed to retrieve the appropriate information for you.
But today software is going to be generated in real time. It's generative based on the context, based on the circumstance, based on who you are, based on the problem you asked, based on your prompt. It will generate unique content for you every single time for everybody. It's unique. When you use Grock, every time you use it is different based on the right based on the prompt that you give it and based on the circumstance.
It used to be retrievalbased. Today it's generative. And if it's generative, every time is different, then you need AI factories all over the world to generate the content in real time, which is the reason why you need AI factories. And and this is a unique way of doing computation. But the benefit of course is that everything isn't preconceived and pre-documented and it's contextually sensible and therefore intelligent.
So AI factories and robotics and we heard it yesterday from his royal highness his vision how to augment our workforce with roughly tens of millions of robotics to be able to infuse the next wave of productivity and progress. But this scares a lot of folks here when it comes to the future of jobs. So let's hear about your thoughts Elon and Jensen on that.
Sure. Well, you say in the long term, where will things end up? Long term, I don't know what long-term is. Maybe it's 10, 20 years, something like that. For me, that's long term. My prediction is that work will be optional. Optional. We'll take that. Yeah. I mean, it'll be like playing sports or a video game or something like that.
if you want to work uh you know in the same way like you can you can go to the store and just buy some vegetables or you could grow vegetables in your backyard. It's much harder to grow vegetables in your backyard, but some people still do it because I like growing vegetables. That will be what work is like offshore.
And between now and then, there's actually a lot of work to get to that point. And I always recommend people read read Yin Banks culture books to get a senseful what a probable positive AI future is like. And interestingly, in those books, money is no longer doesn't exist. It's kind of interesting. And I I my guess is in if you go out long enough, assuming there's a continued improvement in AI and robotics, which this seems likely, the money will will stop being relevant at some point in the future.
Now, there will still be constraints on power like in like electricity and mass. The fundamental physics elements will still be still be constraints. But I think at some point currency becomes irrelevant. Jensen, any thoughts? By the way, the Nvidia earnings call is later today. And by the way, since currency is relevant.
Cheers. Elon just wants to share with you some crazy news. the two of us who like to share some breaking news. Uh let's see. I I would say I would say there there's um different horizons you go look at. Everybody's jobs will be different. That I think that that's for sure. Uh how how the students learn will be different.
Um uh how people do their work will be different obviously because a lot of the things that we do mundanely or arduously or very difficultly are going to be done very simply. And so we're going to be more productive from that sense. One of the things that I will say is that if your life becomes more productive and if the things that you're doing with great difficulty become simpler, it is very likely because you have so many ideas, you'll have more time to go pursue things.
It is my guess that Elon will be busier as a result of AI. I'm going to be busier as a result of AI. And the reason for that is because we have so many ideas we want to pursue, so many things that we still have in our backlog inside our company that we can go pursue. If we were more productive, we can get to those things faster.
And so in the near term, I would say that that there's every evidence that that we will be more productive and yet still be busier because we have so many ideas. One thing that I will say give you give you some evidence is that and I was just telling Elan about this earlier radiology for example has largely been converted to AIdriven radiology and there's some really great companies doing that and the surprising thing is the prediction that all radiologists would be the first jobs to go was exactly the opposite.
The trend shows that there are more radiologists being hired now as a result of AI. And the reason for that, if you take a step back, it's because the goal of a radiologist is not to study the images. The goal of a radiologist is to diagnose a disease. Now, the studying of the images became so productive, they could study more images, study more modalities, spend more time with the patients.
And as a result, they were actually accepting more patients. We're doing more radiology all around the world. We're doing a better job with diagnosing disease. And so that's kind of the nearterm outcome of AI and productivity and we'll see what happens long term. You know, I I when when currency doesn't matter anymore.
Just, you know, let me know right before. You'll see it coming. You'll see it coming like like we text often. Yeah, we do. Yeah. Just text it off. Yeah. Let me know. I kind of I kind of agree with both of you because if you look at every technological trend, every general purpose technology has been net new positive for the globe, for humanity and so forth with you too.
Can I see I think it's precisely the reason for that is because all the great ideas from innovators like Elon that you have so many good ideas as well. Yeah. Well, you know, thank you. So let me sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh sh share with you two stories from two Saudi innovators in collaboration with a lot of great the great work that Nvidia does.
So one of them is professor Omaragi who's the first American Saudi to win a Nobel Prize in creating new chemistry and the way he has done that he has leveraged your AI accelerators and models like Grock to be able to create new chemistry when it comes to metal organic frameworks. Those are metal ions that are positively charged with organic linkers to be able to effectively create a sponge with 33 nanometers pores to capture water from air and also to capture carbon dioxide.
The second story has also to do with AI accelerated by Nvidia and with models like rock which is nanop which is effectively creating a nano robot 500 nanometers by a,000 nanometers to be able to do gene editing leveraging the crisper technology to take out cickle cell disease. Now in both these instances they originated 20 years ago in research but AI was able to really accelerate the outcomes and the outputs such that we can move into new value pools.
So I think with every technological trend humanity is going to always manage to shift to new value pools when it comes to workforce and productivity. But we have some great announcements to talk about here today. Let's begin with you Elon. the things that we're doing with XAI. We're excited to announce that we're doing a a a uh a 500 megawatt.
I mean, yeah, 500. Sorry. 500 megawatt. 500 megawatt. Yeah, we're doing We're doing 500 megawatt. Sorry. This Yeah. Yeah. 500 g one. I have to wait. Um so, um that that'll be eight bazillion trillion dollars. Um Stop that. Uh, so yeah, we we're we're doing a XAI and I think of Saudi Arabia are doing a a
Humane 500 megawatt starting with 60 megawatt phase one and we're doing it with Nvidia. Congratulations to the Humane team, Satar team. Such a fantastic job. Jensen, I think we're also doing some great announcements uh this week. We are. Well, we're we're announcing we're announcing all kinds of things.
Our partnership with Humane is going incredibly well. First of all, we worked together to get this company started and off the ground and just got an incredible customer with Elon. Could you imagine a startup company approximately 0 billion dollars in revenues now going to build a data center for Elon 500 megawatts is gigantic.
This company is off the charts right away. In addition to that, AWS as you know is also congratulations to the humane team with AWS starting with 100 megawws with a gigawatt ambition and counting. So AWS is also coming to humane. We're working with humane on omniverse digital twins. Uh as you know that AI is not just well just agentic AI and chat bots and uh cognitive AI is incredibly important to the world.
Uh but AI applies to everything, chemicals and proteins and genes and physics and fluid dynamics and particles and of course robotics and activation and and we created this world called Omniverse where robots can learn how to be good robots and and it's physically based. It obeys the laws of physics and so robots can learn in these environments and we're working with Humane to apply Omniverse to all kinds of digital factories and robotics and warehouses and things like that.
We're also working in Saudi Arabia to build supercomputers to simulate quantum computers and using our computers to be the controller and the error correction. One quantum error correction requires an enormous amount of computation. So we're doing a lot of great work there too. A big partnership with Humane.
They're off the charts off the ground and off the charts at the same time. This is how we walk the talk in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in partnership with the US. Yesterday the president and his royal highness announced the AI strategic framework and partnership. Today we're going big with Elon and Jensen.
So thank you for those opportunities. Now they told me I have time for two last questions. So the first one was for you Elon and there's a big one for you Jensen. So prepare for that one. AI in space. Is that possible? Yes. If civilization continues, which it probably will, then AI in space is inevitable.
You know, I always have to like preface that, you know, we shouldn't take civilization for granted. We we need to make sure to take care to ensure that civilization hasn't an upward arc. I mean, any student of history knows that civilization does not always have an upward arc. And in fact, civilizations have life life cycles.
So hopefully we are in a strong upward arc. I think we are for now. But we don't want to take that for granted or be complacent. But the in order to the way to think of AI in space is that in order to achieve any meaningful percentage of a cadesev 2 scale civilization where you're using even a million a millionth of the sun's energy, you must have solar powered AI satellites in in deep space.
So that once you realize like once you think in terms of a cloud of two scale civilization which is what percentage of the sun's energy are you turning into useful work then it becomes obvious that space is overwhelmingly what matters overwhelmingly. The the sun only receives one roughly 1/2 billionth of the earth only receives roughly 1 billionth of the sun's energy.
So if you want to have something that is say a million times more energy than Earth could possibly produce, you must go into space. This is where it's kind of handy to have a space company. I guess chips in space, too. Yes. Easier to cool chips in space. There's definitely no water in space that doesn't involve water.
Just hang out. Well, it's you just got to radiate. That's right. So my estimate is that actually the cost of electricity like the cost effectiveness of AI in space will be overwhelmingly better than AI on the ground. So far long long before you exhaust potential energy sources on on Earth. Long long before meaning like I think even perhaps in the four or five year time frame the lowest cost way to do AI compute will be with solar powered AI satellites.
So I'd say not more than five years from now. Wow. And just look at the supercomputers we're building together. Let's say each one of the racks is two tons. Out of that two tons, 1.95 of it is probably for cooling, right? Just imagine how tiny that little supercomput is, right? Each one of these GB300 racks will just be a little tiny thing.
And just electricity generation is already becoming a challenge. So if you start doing any kind of scaling for both electricity generation and cooling, you realize, okay, space is incredibly compelling. So like let's say you wanted to do I don't know two or 300 gawatt per year of AI compute. Yeah. It's very difficult to do that on Earth.
The US average electricity usage last time I checked was around 460 gawatt per year average usage. So something like say at 300 gawatt a year that would be like 2/3 of US electricity production per year. There's no way you're building power plants at that level. And then if you take it up to say a terowatt per year, impossible.
Yeah. Like you have to do that in space. There there just is there just is no way to do a terowatt uh per year on Earth. And in space you you've got continuous solar. You actually don't need batteries because it's always sunny in space. That's right. Exactly. And and the solar panels actually become cheaper because you don't need glass or framing and the cooling is just radiative.
So that's why I think that's the dream. Yes. That's the dream. So Jensen, everybody last night was asking me and I'm mindful it's earnings call for you today. Everybody has been asking me to ask you are we going to have an AI bubble? That's the last question. All right, let's all right let me well let me just tell you what we see.
Okay, so I think it's really important when you look at what's happening around the world and go back to first principles of what's happening in computer science and computing. There are three things that are happening. The first thing is that we all know that Moore's law has run its course and the ability that the amount of demand for computing versus the amount of computation we can get out of general purpose computing is really challenging and so the world's been moving to accelerated computing for some time.
We've been pushing this now for some over 20 years. Let me give you one statistic. I was just at supercomputing. Six years ago, CPUs were 90% of the world supercomputers, top 500 supercomputers. 6 years ago. This year, less than 15%. Went from 90% to 10%. And meanwhile, accelerated computing went from the other way, 10% to now 90%.
Okay. So, you're seeing that inflection point, the transition in high performance computing from general purpose computing to accelerated computing. Well, one of the most data intensive, one of the most intensive computation things that the world does in cloud is data processing. Several hundred billion dollars of computation is done on just raw data processing.
Just SQL processing, data frames, you know, everybody's names, address, their their sex, their their age, where they live, you know, how much money they make. All of that sits into a data frame. That data frame drives the world today. Whether it's in banking or, you know, whether it's in credit cards or, of course, e-commerce and everything from ad recommendation, everything is driven off of that data frame.
That data frame costs hundreds hundreds of dollars to go compute. And so that's the number one thing. End of morselock. How do you know what ad to recommend to somebody? What book to recommend, what movie to recommend? The internet is so gigantic without a recommener system that a little tiny phone of us will have no chance of ever seeing the right information.
That Rexus is the engine of the internet today. That's going generative AI. It used to be running on CPUs. Now it runs on GPUs. Which then says the third thing when if you just look at those two applications many of the internet companies can build enormous number of GPU supercomputers just doing that of course then it creates this the third opportunity on top of it which is agentic AI this is grock and this is open AI this is anthropic you know this is Gemini agentic AI sits on top of that but don't forget to think about what is happening underneath what everybody sees as AI today there's a whole movement of computing from general purpose computing to accelerated computing and that if you take that into consideration you'll come to the conclusion that in fact what is left over to fuel that revolutionary agentic AI is not only substantially less than you thought and all of it justified
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