저자: Farzad · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라는 포워드 PE 24.21로 코카콜라(25.25), 펩시(24.88)보다 낮게 거래되며 이는 실행 리스크와 성장 둔화 우려 때문이다. 시장은 2023년 이익을 약 160억 달러(분기 약 40억 달러)로 기대하며 Q4 2022 인도량 42.5~43만 대를 연 4배로 본 것이 1.7백만 대 기대치다. 금리 인상으로 무위험 수익률이 높아진 점도 주식 매력을 낮춘다. 기대치를 상회하면 긍정적 촉매가 될 수 있고, 성장이 지속되면 PE 재평가 여지가 있다. 장기 투자 관점에서 기회일 수 있다고 본다.
다듬은 글
2022 has been a year to forget in the stock market and especially for Tesla investors and now we're getting to the point where certain metrics are starting to highlight the relative value of Tesla versus other stocks the primary metric I want to focus on for this video is the forward price earnings ratio or PE and the most common way of calculating this metric is by dividing the current market cap of the company and dividing it by the next 12 months projected earnings That Wall Street is coming up with if we go to Yahoo finance and pull up the statistics for Tesla ticker TSLA you can see the current market cap for the company is 388 billion dollars with a forward PE of 24.21 and this is the current valuation of the company based on roughly 50 percent year-over-year sales growth and what's cool about that forward PE metric is that we can use that number to figure out what the market is expecting Tesla to earn in the next 12 months if we take the current market cap and divide it by 24 forward PE we come up with 16 billion dollars of expect earnings in 2023 which is roughly 4 billion dollars per quarter on average now there are so many different ways of valuing how much a stock should be worth there's price to earnings price to earnings growth so many different ones but what's really interesting about price to earnings is that it's not just one of the most commonly used but given today's market environment it's making Tesla's valuation kind of stick out like a store thumb let me explain to you what I mean if we pull up the same metric for Apple take our AAPL you can see that the forward PE for that stock is 22.17 and apple is doing about eight percent year-over-year Revenue growth now looking at Coca-Cola company ticker KO their forward PE is roughly 25.25 with about 12 percent year-over-year Revenue growth Amazon ticker amzn is at a forward PE of roughly 42 with an estimated 10 year-over-year Revenue growth alphabet or Google ticker g-o-g forward PE of 16.8 and 2.5 percent year-over-year Revenue growth and one more example Pepsi ticker pep their forward PE is at a 24.88 with a 9 year-over-year Revenue growth and so if we use this forward PE metric you can see that the market is deciding to price companies like Coca-Cola and Pepsi at a higher valuation than Tesla relative to its expected earnings for the next 12 months and so the question becomes why why is this the case this seems weird if you've been following Tesla for a long time you know that Tesla back in the day feels like a million years ago but it wasn't more than two three years ago Tesla had price earnings ratios of 700 500 200 100 and this was because the stock market was pricing the shares very very high relative to their next 12 months of earnings with the expectation that in the long term Tesla was going to reach a valuation that would warrant the earnings it's going to make in the future but now we're in a situation where Tesla appears to be growing its earnings but the stock price is coming down very dramatically especially as of late one of the reasons I think is the perceived risk of execution meaning that the stock market as a whole is not necessarily convinced that Tesla is going to be able to generate long-term earnings that will warrant its current valuation as well as some concerns around its growth trajectory and if it's going to be able to keep that up for the foreseeable future if you're enjoyed this video so far I would love it if you throw me a like it helps the YouTube algorithm show this to more people thank you so much in other words we can say that the market is perceiving reduced demand and reduced profits for Tesla now there are many things that happen in the stock market but these two articles from today could highlight some of those worries Tesla stock tumbles again as China registrations falter and Tesla extends shut down a Shanghai plant in rare Christmas suspension even though Tesla is most likely going to report record deliveries in Q4 of this year there might be some fear in the market that that growth will not sustain through the end of 2023 either due to pricing concerns recession concerns covet concerns competition concerns what have you not to mention that there are other Investments out there like apple Coca-Cola Pepsi that provide dividends which can shift the attention away from stocks like Tesla that don't offer a dividend to companies that do and of course we have to layer on top of that the FED raising rates which means that there are now Investments out there that essentially have zero risk that guarantee a return and so if you have say 10 million dollars to invest and you can put it somewhere that's going to guarantee you four or five percent return that is half a million dollars per year that you're making by doing absolutely nothing with zero risk versus potentially putting that money in a stock whose perceived future looks unclear so what's one way that Tesla can overcome some of these fears or unwillingness from investors to invest in the company it sounds kind of simple but you start by beating expectations as a baseline expectation if we use the math we did earlier Market is expecting Tesla to earn 16 billion dollars in 2023 which is roughly 4 billion dollars per quarter on average if we compare this to the projected earnings for Tesla for Q4 of 2022 which are going to be reported towards the end of January the market is expecting between 425 and 430 3000 deliveries which correlate to an average of a dollar 25 earnings per share which correlates to about 4 billion dollars of net income for the quarter we can say it a different way the market expects Tesla's Q4 2022 earnings to be repeated four times for 2023 and if we take the 425 to 430 000 deliveries and multiply times four for four quarters in the year that extrapolates out to roughly 1.7 million deliveries in the year and so question becomes will they be those expectations and the one clue we'll get from Q4 earnings for Tesla is if they continue to guide for 50 growth year over year into the future the 1.7 million delivery number that I'm working out to be the expectation for the market is roughly 25 growth on 2022 numbers and so anything above that 25 should be a positive Catalyst for the stock and so of course I have no idea if that positive Catalyst will actually do anything to the stock but it's one way of beating the expectations of what the market expects to happen but the more important question here is what price earnings ratio over the market Grant Tesla historically the s p average which Tesla is a part of has been about a 20 p e and this price earnings could be significantly higher for stocks that are expected to grow into the future and so it stands to reason that if Tesla can show a lot of growth into the Future Past 2023 and 2024 in theory the market should reward Tesla with a higher p e than the average the average earnings growth on the s p is roughly between 8 to 10 percent so if Tesla can grow above that theoretically it should warrant a higher PE and this effect could be multiplied if Tesla continues to grow its earnings if Tesla goes from say 16 billion earned in 2023 to 30 earned in 24 or 50 earned in 25 and they can continue to show a growth trajectory that's well above that eight to ten percent theoretically that price earnings ratio should be higher on a higher earnings base but if you have a longer term Horizon and you're willing to invest in companies for the Long Haul it's Times Like These that could be very valuable for people to find opportunities that perhaps weren't there previously but I would love to hear your thoughts what do you think about the current valuation what do you think about the price movements lately for Tesla and other companies what do you expect for 2023 and Beyond please let me know in the comments below if you'd like to talk about this and many other topics with my awesome community on our private Discord consider signing up 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