저자: Farzad · 외국인
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연준 유동성 공급(QT 중단급 자금 투입)이 위험자산 상승 여력을 제공한다는 주장. 테슬라 자사주 매입이 현금 포지션 강함의 강력한 신호라고 봄. 전기차 전환은 GM·포드·VW·토요타 등 레거시 업체의 전환 지연으로 2035년 이후로 늦어질 수 있고, 신규 진입 업체가 수혜를 볼 것이라는 논의. 중고차 가격 고공행진 시 정비·부품 업종 수혜 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
T Nelly long time listener what's up T question given the macro Market will record delivers in q1 meaningfully move the stock price or will it take major events like a Fed pivot and cyber truck production love your thoughts thank you very much Richard and then Hans what do you guys think yeah I think it it will support the stock price I think cyber truck will move the stock price I think the one of the things that we kind of needed to support the stock price we actually got this last week with all of the banking crisis and that is liquidity being pumped into the system you know the FED can call it whatever they want but they just reverse two-thirds of the quantitative tightening that it took them several months to do in the course of a week so as long as the money printer goes back to Burr then there's a lot of upside potential for equities from that standpoint there's also a lot of risk right now in the system for risk assets which Tesla is one of so you know it's hard to say how that will play out but we at least have one Tailwind at the back right now the the most interesting thing about the whole uh QT thing real quick the quantitative easing or like the thing that the FED did to rescue the banks the one argument I'm hearing is like well that's not it's not QE it's repossessing of assets I'm like bro there's more money in the system who cares like that's just what it is let's why are we over complicating this this is like this is why we're here in the first place we're over complicating that shouldn't be over complicated it's just so simple more money out more inflation easy more more more chances yeah more money to the banks mean it's more money out into the public stream exactly it's so weird it's like like technicalities it blows my mind I think it gets caught up in terms of like the government bailout versus how it's done because I don't think they want to call it a bailout and theoretically it's raising money from all the financial financial institutions I think ultimately if the institution fails it's a balance exactly 100 I couldn't agree more as far as this uh this comment goes I'm going to say something very controversial I think BuyBacks will be the biggest signal that Tesla's liquidity and its Financial positioning is the strongest in the market and I think if they buy back I think that's a bigger signal to any deliveries they do because that signals that their cash position is perfect they'll never need to take a loan their cash flows are good especially in a tight in a tight environment what do you guys think about that I have one question if you had to pick between Tesla pursuing captive financing or doing BuyBacks oh 100 yeah but to me the signal of the buyback is more important than the actual the net effect of the buyback is what I'm saying the signal is sense of the market I was going to say is elon's been pretty conservative in terms of his economic forecast and his commentary on pal and he believes that it's been you know destructive Etc so if he really believes that it would be hard for me to to also believe that he'd be quick to get rid of cash but that's what I'm saying that's if he were to do that imagine the signal that sense no no yeah and I'm saying that it would be difficult if that was his concern for him to get to that point be willing to get rid of the cash understood great question to Nelly not Financial advice by the way we don't know what we're talking about just three morons actually one and two really smart people I shouldn't be coming what am I doing come on I definitely qualify in the Camp you were correct with your three more uh two morons and a lawyer so I don't know which one's worse just kidding media Cafe online LLC thank you so much for a question Community member because of the little symbol of question without a strong GM Ford VW and or Toyota how will ice cars be replaced in any reasonable amount of time 2035 that's a great question how do you guys think about this I think if we lack Supply it may be in even longer than 2035 because we get back to that you know we we repeatly repeatedly go back to that that chart and that dead zone if there's not enough production and we talk about it and we see the Legacy being inept and I think it's still in play and along if as long as they're inept the longer that date gets dragged out I just want to make a comment I every time you lean like to the side you always look like Phantom of the Opera because it's only half of your friends I just I just wanted to make a comment just there you go much better thank you go ahead Hans um yeah I think that just like a lot of the other areas of the economy right now when they get in trouble we see some sort of government intervention that's going to be something that is undoubtedly on the table for these companies GM Ford VW Toyota they employ too many people they're too politically connected the UAW is to large of a player before all of these companies not to get some assistance and so they may not be strong but with the support of global taxpayers something will work yeah and I think sorry I meant to interrupt I just as I say the question is exactly how does that play out also the question is you know what happens if there's a different Administration I mean as a republican Administration uh as likely to assist the unions probably not that's a fascinating question that the 2024 election is going to have a some repercussions to this for sure a hundred percent I think the replace is going to take forever to replace gas cars so I think we're talking more about 100 EV sold each year it might be 2035 I mean theoretically the the quicker the ice car makers go away the faster we'll get to full EVS uh sold each year but it will be 30 million versus a hundred million right it's so which me which means that then the the fleet is going to take forever to be replaced so 2035 could be the earliest that a hundred percent of the car sold or as close to 100 of the car sold are EVS let's say mainstream cars like Ferrari I think will always make a gas car and they should because they're beautiful right so whatever but um yeah I think the bigger question is which car companies will take larger market share because of GM Ford vws and Toyota's inability to shift to EVS quick enough and those are the real winners uh the fleet will suffer because of it but from an individual company perspective those companies are the winners I was also wondering if like at some point in time as we get more penetration and oil becomes less of a valuable commodity I wonder if the oil company just like the Saudis did are the oil companies going to start investing in this technology or related technology and that will be the ultimate boost that kind of the capital that comes from there that pushes the technology forward that's a great point you know because although all the financial uh I guess incentives will be in place it becomes an economic no-brainer for these guys to get into into the play basically go ahead hunts the other interesting investment play is you know if there really continues to be an affordability crisis in the car market and we see used car prices at elevate related rates for a long time we don't see enough new car sales then I think that's a huge Tailwind to mechanic shops transmission shops tier one and tier 2 Auto suppliers selling replacement parts that you know it could be that the overall Market looks more like a Cuba situation where yeah we've just got to do what we can to continue to maintain older vehicles at higher levels for longer and then you know if the used car prices are at elevated levels it makes a lot more sense to spend more money on those repairs and refurbishments and so we could see a transition in the overall Market to who's making money off of cars and car parts yeah at some point in time I would think that oil prices would significantly increase because there'll be some period of time where demands is going to drop off the table and people are going to stop producing and the supplies will be more limited and I I would be interesting to see because that's going to supply those used cars and it'll make the cost of use higher but for some people to get in they can only go into a used car obviously that's a a place also Tesla might be able to exploit with either their own used cars or with the lower end vehicles and I did want to just you know if we end up in a situation like that that's really bad for developing nations that you know they're getting the vehicles that they have from the used Market in the developed world and so it just you know it it represents a massive reduction overall in the amount of cars available in the market which is going to have a disproportionately negative effect on the poorest of the poor also you know realistically I bet you'll be some other companies that do come out of the woodwork that don't exist now that we've never heard of that will be viable that will do a good job make money provide Supply yeah specifically Chinese companies that aren't like yes right now there is going to be a contraction in the Chinese market but if they can start exporting globally because there's a shortage elsewhere you know just because a Chinese company can't be competitive against Chinese competitors in the Chinese market that doesn't mean they can't out compete other automakers from other countries in a global market also you know we have to look at in the big picture that might be the the means by which the United States and China have a way of kind of resolving their differences if Chinese the Chinese need the international market just like the United States needs the international market then they have to play nice nice with each other so maybe there is a detente that will arise out of that necessity you just use a French word on us they taunt what does that mean okay it's a like a let's say they will reach some type of agreement not not to fight not to argue like a truce yeah a truce not a full resolution where everybody goes out and celebrates and everybody's happy uh gotcha but it would be a better position obviously than we are in now got it I like Dayton better next question
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